Despite delays in receiving external financing, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine will currently refrain from significantly increasing the volume of borrowing on the domestic debt market in order to avoid raising the cost of servicing that debt, said First Deputy Minister of Finance Roman Yermolychev.
“We will monitor the status of the Single Treasury Account. We must understand that these are debt obligations that we must fulfill in any case,” the First Deputy Minister noted during a budget discussion organized by the Center for Economic Strategy last week.
“Raising more funds would require raising interest rates, which we would prefer to avoid,” Yermolichev emphasized.
He recalled that at the most recent primary auctions of domestic government bonds, the Ministry of Finance managed to increase the amount of funds raised by 5 billion hryvnia compared to the standard trend.
“Future fundraising rounds may also be larger, depending on how much funding we’ll need for social payments and those critical expenditures that arise on a daily basis,” said the first deputy minister.
According to him, while awaiting external financing—which is contingent on the Verkhovna Rada’s adoption of a number of laws—the Ministry of Finance has deferred approximately 39 billion hryvnias in unsecured capital expenditures to December.
As reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, during the first primary auctions for the placement of domestic government bonds following the National Bank’s increase of the discount rate from 15.5% to 16% per annum on September 22, the Ministry of Finance was able not only to maintain yields on standard bonds at the previous level, but also to lower rates on benchmark bonds, which banks can use to partially form their required reserves. The cut-off rates for 12-month and 29-month OVDPs remained at 15.18% and 16.10%, respectively, while the rate for benchmark bonds fell to 12.18%.
In total, the Ministry of Finance raised 7.36 billion UAH across three auctions, compared to 2.01 billion UAH a week earlier, when there were two auctions and the offering at each was 1 billion UAH.
For the upcoming auctions on Tuesday, September 29, the Ministry of Finance reduced the supply of standard OVDPs to 1 billion UAH from 3 billion UAH last Tuesday, while retaining the more popular one-year bonds. At the same time, it will again offer 5 billion UAH in benchmark bonds, whereas previously these instruments were auctioned off approximately once a month.
The European Business Association (EBA) calls for maintaining a zero quota on ferrous scrap exports, which would effectively ban scrap metal exports in 2027, Alternatively, should the quota be abolished, member companies propose imposing an export duty of EUR 180 per metric ton for all export destinations, taking into account Ukraine’s international obligations.
“Domestic processing of scrap metal in Ukraine allows for the creation of added value, the preservation of jobs and tax revenues, and the provision of raw materials for the production of steel and finished metal products. The use of scrap also helps reduce energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in steel production, which takes on additional significance in light of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM),” the publication states.
According to the publication, EBA member companies have appealed to the Cabinet of Ministers and the Ministry of Economy.
Recently, following the shutdown of most Ukrainian steel mills due to massive Russian shelling, scrap metal collection companies have called on the government to review restrictions on scrap exports. Previously, scrap collectors had advocated for lifting the de facto ban on scrap exports from Ukraine and introducing quotas for shipments of this raw material to EU countries in the amount of 200,000 metric tons per year.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine established a zero quota on scrap metal exports effective January 1, 2026, to ensure Ukrainian enterprises have access to this raw material.
The EBA noted that, according to 2025 figures, exports of ferrous scrap from Ukraine increased by 53% compared to 2024—reaching 448,680 metric tons. The business community believes that easing the current restrictions could lead to a rise in exports and a shortage of raw materials for Ukrainian manufacturers.
According to data from “UAVtormet,” 4.3 million metric tons of steel were produced in the first 8 months of 2026 (compared to 7.41 million metric tons in 2025), 925,400 metric tons of scrap were delivered to steel mills (1.56 million metric tons), and scrap procurement totaled 971,700 metric tons (2.11 million metric tons). According to preliminary forecasts, 6.4–6.5 million metric tons of steel will be produced in 2026, 1.2–1.25 million metric tons of scrap will be delivered to steel mills, and scrap procurement will total 1.22–1.25 million metric tons.
In January–August of this year, Ukrainian companies reduced exports of ferrous scrap by more than 20 times compared to the same period last year—to 13,86 thousand metric tons from 283,06 thousand metric tons, and in monetary terms—to $3.930 million from $85.4 million. At the same time, 9.31 thousand metric tons were exported in January due to the completion of last year’s contracts, compared to 68.52 thousand metric tons in December 2025. There were no exports in February through May of this year; 4.08 thousand metric tons were exported in June, 315 metric tons in July, and 157 metric tons in August.
On April 29, 2026, the Cabinet of Ministers, by its Resolution No. 563, amended Annex 1 to its Resolution No. 1795 of December 31, 2025, permitting the export of scrap metal on the basis of licenses issued by the Ministry of Economy to to foreign economic activity entities that were the winners of electronic auctions held in December 2025 for the sale of such goods in accordance with the Procedure for the Alienation and Lease of Property of Business Entities in which more than 50% of the shares in the authorized capital are owned by the state or by another legal entity whose sole participant is the state.
Germany has provided 5 pickup trucks and 5 cargo vans for track workers, communications specialists, and power engineers to help restore damaged infrastructure and resume train service as quickly as possible following Russian attacks on the railway, according to a statement by Ukraine’s Ministry of Recovery, Infrastructure, and Transport on its Telegram channel.
“After every strike, repair crews must be dispatched to the site as quickly as possible to restore infrastructure and train service. This requires people, equipment, and, of course, transportation.
We thank the railroad workers for their 24/7 efforts. And we thank Germany for its consistent support and practical assistance. It is important to us that this support continues and intensifies,” said Deputy Minister Volodymyr Shemaev.
The equipment was handed over by Boris Ruge, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Federal Republic of Germany to Ukraine.
According to Experts.news, China’s foreign trade in goods reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, up 3.8% from the previous year, said Ma Shengkun, China’s ambassador to Ukraine.
“In 2025, the total volume of China’s imports and exports of goods reached 45.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% year-over-year.
Imports totaled a record 18.48 trillion yuan,” the diplomat wrote in his column on the Interfax-Ukraine website.
According to him, China has remained the world’s second-largest import market for the 17th consecutive year and is the main trading partner for more than 160 countries and regions.
The ambassador also noted that in 2025, China’s imports from the least developed countries increased by 9%, while imports from Asia rose by 3.9%, from Latin America by 4.9%, and from Africa by 6%.
Ma Shengkun highlighted the growth of the high-tech segment of Chinese exports. According to the data he cited, exports of high-tech products reached 5.25 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of 13.2%.
In particular, total exports of electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, and lithium batteries—referred to in China as the “new trio” of export goods—rose by 27.1%.
As previously reported, China remains Ukraine’s largest trading partner. According to a study by the Experts Club information and analytical center, Ukraine’s trade turnover with China reached $14.68 billion in the first half of 2026, including $13.9 billion in imports of Chinese goods and $778.4 million in exports of Ukrainian goods to China. China accounted for 21.9% of Ukraine’s total trade with its 50 largest trading partners.
According to the latest data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine, in January–August 2026, China retained its top position among suppliers of goods to Ukraine, with imports exceeding $19.6 billion. Ukraine’s total imports during this period amounted to nearly $66.3 billion, while exports totaled over $26.6 billion.
A joint study by Experts Club and Active Group published on September 18 also noted that China remains Ukraine’s largest trading partner; however, Ukrainian exports to the Chinese market lag significantly behind imports from China.
Direct non-financial investments by Chinese companies in countries participating in the “Belt and Road” initiative reached $39.67 billion in 2025, a 17.6% increase from the previous year, according to Ma Shengkun, China’s ambassador to Ukraine.
“Through direct investment, project contracting, and development financing, China has contributed to improving local infrastructure, modernizing industry, and raising the standard of living,” the diplomat wrote in a column on the Interfax-Ukraine website.
According to the data he cited, Chinese investment in Africa grew by 41% in 2025.
Chinese companies have established overseas trade and economic cooperation zones in 46 countries, with total investment in these zones approaching $80 billion.
As an example of industrial cooperation, Ma Shenkun cited a project by the Chinese battery manufacturer CATL in Indonesia. It involves establishing a complete production cycle for traction batteries—from the extraction and processing of nickel and the production of battery materials to the manufacturing and assembly of finished batteries.
According to data cited by the ambassador, the total volume of China’s direct non-financial foreign investment in 2025 reached $145.66 billion.
Ma Shengkun also cited World Bank estimates, according to which the full implementation of transportation projects under the “Belt and Road” initiative has the potential to reduce transit times along the relevant corridors by up to 12% and increase trade among countries located along them by 2.8–9.7%.
As previously reported, China is Ukraine’s largest trading partner. According to calculations by the Experts Club information and analytical center, trade between the two countries in the first half of 2026 totaled $14.68 billion. At the same time, Ukraine imported $13.9 billion worth of Chinese goods and exported $778.4 million worth of goods to China, resulting in a trade deficit of $13.12 billion.
China accounted for 21.9% of Ukraine’s trade with its 50 largest partners and 29.4% of imports from this group of countries. Trade with China accounted for approximately 47.3% of Ukraine’s total trade deficit with its top 50 partners.
According to the State Customs Service, from January through August 2026, imports of goods from China to Ukraine had already exceeded $19.6 billion, maintaining China’s position as the top supplier to the Ukrainian market.
China’s role in Ukraine’s foreign trade is analyzed in more detail in a study by Experts Club and Active Group, published on September 18, 2026.
According to Interfax-Ukraine, Ukraine’s economy showed the first signs of emerging from a recession in the first half of 2026, however, the high foreign trade deficit, inflationary pressures, and the dependence of public finances on international aid remain key macroeconomic risks, according to the latest issue of “Economic Monitoring.”
As noted by Maksym Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, after real GDP fell by 0.6% year-over-year in the first quarter, the economy returned to growth in April–June.
In the second quarter, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by 0.4% compared with the same period last year and by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter. At the same time, the National Bank’s forecast projected growth of the Ukrainian economy at only 1.3% for the full year of 2026.
“Positive factors in the first half of the year included the resumption of at least minimal GDP growth, the return of international reserves to above $50 billion, stability in the foreign exchange market, more consistent international financing, and the adaptability of Ukrainian businesses. The main risks remain the war, the state of the energy sector, high production costs, a labor shortage, weak commodity exports, and a growing trade imbalance. Ukraine has a significant supply of external liquidity, but it cannot replace domestic economic growth,” Urakin noted.
Consumer inflation slowed to 7.2% in June, while core inflation accelerated to 8.1%. The NBU’s discount rate remained at 15%.
At the same time, after four months of decline, Ukraine’s international reserves increased by 12.1% in June—to $51.27 billion. The NBU’s foreign exchange interventions remained substantial.
Foreign trade remains one of the main structural risks to the Ukrainian economy. From January through June 2026, merchandise imports totaled approximately $49.3 billion, while exports amounted to about $21 billion. Thus, the merchandise trade deficit reached approximately $28.3 billion.
Public finances also remain under significant strain. Revenues to the General Fund of the state budget for the first half of the year totaled nearly 1.9 trillion UAH, while expenditures amounted to approximately 2.23 trillion UAH.
Approximately 1.4 trillion UAH, or about 63% of all General Fund expenditures, was allocated to the security and defense sector. The volume of international grants totaled 569.6 billion hryvnia.
According to Urakin, one of the main objectives of economic policy should be to transform significant imports of equipment, international funding, and defense spending into a foundation for creating new domestic production capacity.
“The next phase of economic policy should consist not only of maintaining financial stability, but also of transforming imported equipment, international funds, and defense spending into new production assets. The foundation for long-term development should be energy self-sufficiency, the defense-industrial complex, agricultural processing, machine building, production localization, logistics, digital technologies, and exports of high-value-added products,” says the founder of Experts Club.
At the same time, the first half of the year revealed significant differences between the world’s largest economies and emerging markets.
The Chinese economy grew by 4.7% in the first six months of 2026, while India posted a growth rate of about 7.8% in April–June.
Turkey continued to combine economic growth with extremely high inflation. In the second quarter, its GDP increased by 2.3% year-over-year and by 1.1% compared to the previous quarter, while annual inflation in June remained near 32%.
Brazil showed more moderate growth: its GDP in the second quarter increased by 2% year-over-year and by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter. In the first half of the year, the country’s economy grew by 1.9%, and annual inflation in June slowed to 4.64%.
“Key emerging economies ended the first half of the year with very different growth patterns. China grew by 4.7%, but its second quarter was weaker than the first, and domestic consumption lags significantly behind industrial output and exports. India continues to grow by nearly 8%, driven by the size of its domestic market and investment. Turkey remains an example of how inflation exceeding 30% limits the quality of economic growth, while Brazil is showing more moderate growth with gradual control of inflation. For Ukraine, the main conclusion remains the same: long-term growth requires its own industrial, technological, and export base,” Urakin emphasized.
In his assessment, the first half of the year confirmed the viability of Ukraine’s macrofinancial stabilization model, but at the same time revealed its limitations.
“The return of GDP to modest growth and the replenishment of reserves are positive signs; however, the $28.3 billion merchandise trade deficit, high underlying inflationary pressures, and the budget’s dependence on external financing reveal the limits of this model. Only by developing its own production and export base will Ukraine be able to transition from an economy of wartime stabilization to a model of sustainable postwar growth,” concluded Maksym Urakin.
“Economic Monitoring” is a monthly analytical and statistical publication led by Maksym Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics. The publication analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world’s leading economies, as well as trends in GDP, inflation, public finances, international reserves, foreign trade, and key risks to economic development.
