Global economic growth will slow down in 2024, according to more than half (56%) of chief economists surveyed at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos.
The remaining respondents expect global GDP growth to remain at the level of 2023 or accelerate.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the global economy will grow by 2.9% in 2024 after growing by 3% in 2023.
Economists are most pessimistic about Europe – three-quarters of respondents (77%) believe that growth in the region will be weak or very weak. Meanwhile, 93% of respondents expect moderate or strong growth in South Asia, and 86% in East Asia.
The US GDP growth rate will range from moderate to strong, according to 56% of the surveyed chief economists. Back in September, the percentage was 78%. At the same time, only 13% expect high inflation in the United States and Europe.
The WEF organizers interviewed 30 chief economists from banks, consulting firms, international organizations and major companies, including Microsoft and Google.
“The global economy will be tested again this year,” said WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi. – “Global inflation is easing, but economic growth is stalling, financial conditions remain tight, tensions are rising, and inequality is growing, underscoring the urgent need for international cooperation to create the conditions for sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
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Exports of goods from Ukraine in 2023 fell by 18.5% year-on-year – from $44.2 billion to $36 billion, while imports increased by 14.4% – from $55.5 billion to $63.5 billion, the State Customs Service said on Friday.
As a result, according to its data, Ukraine’s foreign trade turnover for 2023 decreased by only 0.3% to $99.4 billion.
It is specified that taxable imports amounted to $52.6 billion, or 83% of the total volume of imported goods. It is noted that the tax burden per 1 kg of taxable imports in 2023 increased by 38% to $0.49/kg.
According to the released data, the most imported goods to Ukraine were China – in the amount of $10.4 billion, Poland – $6.6 billion and Germany – $4.9 billion, while the most exported were Poland – $4.7 billion, Romania – $3.7 billion, as well as China – $2.4 billion.
In the total volume of imported goods in 2023, 65% were machinery, equipment and transport – $19.8 billion (during customs clearance of such goods, UAH 141.7 billion or 31% of customs payments were paid to the budget), chemical products – $11 billion (UAH 74.8 billion or 16% of customs payments were paid to the budget) and fuel and energy products – $10.3 billion (UAH 103.4 billion or 23% of customs payments).
The top 3 exports from Ukraine in 2023 were food products – $21.8 billion, metals and metal products – $3.9 billion, as well as machinery, equipment and transport – $2.9 billion
The State Customs Service specified that 559.2 million UAH was paid to the budget during customs clearance of exports of goods for which the export duty was established.
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The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2023 increased 2.8 times compared to the same period of 2022 – to $24.351 billion from $8.570 billion, the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) said on Monday.
According to its data, exports of goods from the country during the period decreased by 18.9% compared to January-November 2022 – to $32.978 billion, while imports increased by 16.5% – to $57.329 billion.
The State Statistics Committee specified that in November-2023 compared to October-2023, seasonally adjusted exports increased by 3.1% to $2.583 billion, while imports decreased by 9.5% to $4.749 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in November-2023, as in the previous month, was negative at $2.166 billion compared to $2.741 billion before.
The export-import coverage ratio in January-November 2023 was 0.58 (0.83 in January-November 2022).
State Statistics specified that foreign trade operations were conducted with partners from 228 countries.
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The head of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Lai Tsing-jeou, has won the presidential election in Taiwan, Western media report.
He received 40.2% of the vote, significantly outpacing his opponents. It is reported that almost all ballots have been counted. However, the Central Election Commission has not yet announced the voter turnout.
The media reminds us that the DPP will remain in power in Taiwan for the third consecutive term: Tsai Ing-wen has held the presidency for two four-year terms since 2016.
Hou Yui of the Kuomintang Party, who won 33% of the vote, has already congratulated Lai Tsing-jeou on his victory. Ke Wen-jeou, the founder and leader of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), who managed to win 26.33% of the vote, also conceded defeat.
Later, Lai Tsingde thanked everyone who voted for him, as well as Hou Yui and Ke Wen-jeou, who agreed with the election results.
“We are telling the international community that when it comes to choosing between democracy and authoritarianism, we choose the side of democracy,” he said.
“The party of current Vice President Lai, which defends Taiwan’s identity and rejects China’s territorial claims, is running for a third term, an unprecedented development in Taiwan’s current electoral system,” Reuters notes.
The European Union welcomed the elections held in Taiwan on January 13, citing a common commitment to democracy.
“Our respective systems of governance are based on a common commitment to democracy, the rule of law and human rights. The European Union emphasizes that peace and stability in the Taiwan
Strait area is key to regional and global security and prosperity,” a statement by a spokesperson for the European External Action Service (EEAS) said in a statement released on Saturday in Brussels.
At the same time, the EEAS spokesperson noted that the European Union remains concerned about the growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and opposes any unilateral attempts to change the status quo.”
Earlier, the Experts club information and analytical center released a video about the most important elections in the world in 2024, which predicted the victory of an anti-Chinese candidate for the presidency of Taiwan. More information about the 2024 global elections can be found in the video here: https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=O98WbmetBtle9DnH
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In the world of politics, 2024 promises to be one of the most significant and dynamic periods, given the planned elections in almost 70 countries with a combined population of almost 4 billion people, which is more than in any other year in the history of the world. That is why many have already called 2024 the year of elections, and the results of some of them could be fateful for all of humanity. On the YouTube channel of the Experts Club think tank, we analyzed the top 10 most important elections in the world that could lead to dramatic changes in the international agenda.
The United States: the return of Donald Trump?
The most anticipated political event of 2024 is the presidential election in the United States scheduled for November 5.
“These elections could lead to significant changes in the political landscape of the world, with the potential return of former President Donald Trump being of particular interest. His candidacy has already sparked a lot of debate, in particular regarding his impact on American foreign policy, relations with allies, and support for Ukraine. The results of this election may determine America’s global course for the coming years,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
Great Britain: time for change for the Conservatives?
The United Kingdom is also preparing for important parliamentary elections, which, according to the expert, could be a turning point for the ruling Conservatives.
“Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing many challenges, including polls that predict a ‘heavy defeat’ for his party. The elections in Britain could dramatically change the country’s political course,” emphasizes Maxim Urakin.
According to all the polls, the Conservatives are 15-20% behind Labor.
Taiwan: elections amid tensions with China
In Taiwan, where the presidential election is scheduled for January 13, the political situation is burdened by growing tensions with China.
Urakin notes that the elections in Taiwan could exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region, especially between China and the United States.
“Of the three presidential candidates vying for victory, Lai Tsingde, who is the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, is fiercely anti-Chinese. The second candidate, Hou Yu-yi of the opposition Kuomintang, wants to start negotiations with Beijing. The third candidate, Ko Wen-jeou of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and former mayor of Taipei, offers an intermediate position closer to reconciliation. Polls favor the candidate with an anti-China stance,” the founder of Experts Club emphasized.
India: Elections in the World’s Largest Democracy
India, the world’s largest democracy, will also face important elections. It is expected that elections to the lower house of the Lok Sabha will be held in April-May.
“These elections are not only important for India, but also important for the entire international community, given India’s growing role on the world stage,” – Urakin said.
The year 2024 will undoubtedly be a year that will bring important changes in international relations and domestic policies of states that are key players on the world stage. Political analysts and experts are eagerly awaiting the results of these elections, which may set the global agenda for the coming years.
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The state budget deficit of Ukraine in December 2023 amounted to a record UAH 285 billion, compared to UAH 145.1 billion in November and UAH 98.4 billion in October, according to the State Treasury. It specified that the general fund deficit jumped to UAH 274.4 billion from UAH 162.5 billion in November and UAH 87.7 billion in October. The Ministry of Finance noted that the cash expenditures of the state budget in December also became a record and exceeded UAH 548.2 billion compared to UAH 337.9 billion in November and UAH 292.1 billion in October.
The general fund expenditures increased to UAH 397.7 billion from UAH 286.3 billion in November and UAH 228.1 billion in October.
According to the Ministry of Finance, in December 2023, revenues to the general fund of the state budget increased slightly to UAH 127.1 billion from UAH 121.7 billion in November, which is, however, less than UAH 139.4 billion in October, while US grant international assistance amounted to UAH 20.5 billion, while in November it was not, and in October it amounted to UAH 42 billion.
In total, in 2023, state budget revenues amounted to UAH 2.67 trillion, including UAH 1.66 trillion from the general fund, of which UAH 425.4 billion was international grant aid (the US – UAH 400.5 billion).
Last year’s cash expenditures of the state budget exceeded UAH 4 trillion, including UAH 3.03 trillion from the general fund, or 98% of the plan, compared to 93% a month earlier.
According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2023, the state budget was executed with a deficit of UAH 1.33 trillion, including a deficit of UAH 1.36 trillion in the general fund against the deficit of UAH 1.83 trillion planned in the general fund plan.
In 2022, the state budget was executed with a deficit of UAH 911.1 billion, including UAH 909.5 billion in the general fund, including UAH 99 billion and UAH 101.3 billion in December, respectively, and in pre-war 2021, the deficit of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine was equal to UAH 166.8 billion.
State budget expenditures in 2022 amounted to UAH 2.70 trillion, including UAH 2.41 trillion for the general fund, which was 91.7% higher than in 2021. In December 2022, cash budget expenditures amounted to UAH 408.8 billion, including UAH 330.5 billion for the general fund.
The general fund of the state budget in 2022 received UAH 1.491 trillion, of which grant funding amounted to UAH 480.6 billion, while in 2021 revenues amounted to UAH 1.084 trillion. In December 2022, the general fund revenues amounted to UAH 229.2 billion, of which UAH 138.4 billion was grant aid.
As reported, on October 6, the Verkhovna Rada approved the next amendments to the state budget for 2023, mainly to increase spending on the security and defense sector. The new amount of state budget expenditures amounted to UAH 3 trillion 393.0 billion, including UAH 3 trillion 94.5 billion for the general fund, while revenues amounted to UAH 1 trillion 416.4 billion, including UAH 1 trillion 253.9 billion for the general fund. The limit for the deficit was set at UAH 2 trillion 10.35 billion, including UAH 1 trillion 834.6 billion for the general fund.
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