The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for the first half of 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine, Ukraine’s real GDP growth rate slowed to 3.5% in May 2024, compared to 4.3% in April and 4.8% in March. This decline is mainly due to a drop in electricity generation, which affected the industrial sector and led to a decrease in production in the machine building and metallurgy sectors. At the same time, exports and demand in the construction industry supported positive economic growth.
“In June 2024, Ukraine’s public debt increased by UAH 200 billion, and inflation accelerated to 2.2%, which is generally in line with the NBU’s target range,” Maksym Urakin emphasized.
Global economy
The World Bank forecasts global economic growth of 2.6% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 2.4%. In 2025-2026, the growth rate is expected to further increase to 2.7%. For developing countries, the average annual GDP growth in 2024-2025 is projected at 4%, slightly lower than in 2023.
“In low-income countries, growth will accelerate to 5% in 2024, compared to 3.8% in 2023. For developed countries, growth is expected to reach 1.5% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025,” said the founder of Experts Club.
Maksym Urakin summarized that despite the decline in food and energy prices, core inflation will remain high in the medium and long term.
Ukraine’s foreign trade
In January-June 2024, Ukraine’s foreign trade balance in goods deteriorated by 24.4% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching a negative value of $13.606 billion. Merchandise exports increased by 0.3% to $19.589 billion, while imports increased by 9% to $33.205 billion. The main export items include agricultural products, metals, and machinery, while the main imports are energy and chemicals.
Conclusion.
The Ukrainian economy and the global economy are facing uncertainty. It is important to monitor changes in macroeconomic indicators to assess the prospects for further development and adaptation to new economic conditions.
Trends in the global and Ukrainian economies can be tracked via the Experts Club information and analytical channel – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
In total, 53 companies now have 55 authorizations, and two companies have received both possible statuses – AEO-C and AEO-B.
Less than two weeks ago, we reported on 48 companies that had received a total of 50 authorizations in different periods of time. Here is the list of companies that have been authorized:
VODALAND INDUSTRY LLC
J.D. EGBERTS UKRAINE LLC
LLC “EKOL LOGISTICS”
PROCTER & GAMBLE UKRAINE LLC
“CUSTOMS BROKERAGE AGENCY “CAPITAL” LLC.
The increase in the pace of accession demonstrates the transparency and reliability of businesses applying for authorizations. At the same time, there has been an increase in the number of multinational corporations that have already had experience of successfully passing the self-assessment procedure to obtain status in other countries. Now they are actively joining the AEO institution in Ukraine to enjoy the relevant benefits and simplifications.
More about the AEO status and authorization to apply simplified procedures at https://customs.gov.ua/deiaki-pitannia-funktsionuvannia-avtorizovanikh-ekonomichnikh-operatoriv
Earlier, roundtables were devoted to customs reform, where the organizer and moderator of the events, Maksim Urakin, stated that the State Customs Service provides up to 40% of the state budget revenues of Ukraine, and these figures have remained stable in recent years. That is why customs reforms are so important for the country.
Open4Business, Ukraine’s leading economic and business information portal, is now available in six languages. The new language version of the site is Chinese, with both traditional and simplified spelling used in articles.
The Open4Business project, created to meet the needs of foreign investors, specializes in providing consulting services for companies seeking to enter the Ukrainian market. The company uses an individualized approach to each project, engaging internal and external experts in the required fields.
The new Chinese version of the website is aimed at facilitating interaction with Chinese-speaking clients and partners, as well as providing a deeper understanding of the unique opportunities offered by the Ukrainian market. This initiative reflects the expansion of the international presence of the Open4Business project and its ability to promote global integration and development of the Ukrainian business environment.
“This step is an important milestone in our efforts to provide foreign companies with easy access to the Ukrainian market and strengthen international business ties. The Chinese market has a huge potential for cooperation and investment in the Ukrainian economy. The new version of our website, in my opinion, will help improve the access of Chinese companies to the Ukrainian market and facilitate the search for business partners,” – said Maxim Urakin, Open4Business project manager.
The Chinese language has two main writing systems: traditional and simplified. Traditional Chinese characters are used mainly in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. They preserve more ancient forms that have more strokes and are often more difficult to write and read.
Simplified Chinese was introduced by the Chinese government in the 1950s and 1960s with the aim of increasing literacy among the population. It uses less complex characters with fewer strokes and is widely used in mainland China, Singapore, and Malaysia. Despite the different forms of writing, both variants have many similarities and can be largely understood by speakers of both systems.
Open4Business is a joint project of the Interfax-Ukraine News Agency and Open4business.com.ua, created to meet the needs of foreign companies to enter the Ukrainian market and find business partners in Ukraine.
China has traditionally been one of Ukraine’s largest trading partners. In the first half of 2024, according to the State Customs Service, Ukraine exported about USD 1.6 billion worth of goods to China, while imports from China to Ukraine amounted to more than USD 6.4 billion.
Despite the full-scale war, Ukrainian business continues to demonstrate high dynamics in obtaining the status of Authorized Economic Operators (AEO): over the 4 years of the program, 48 Ukrainian companies have received 50 AEO authorizations. This status gives companies the highest degree of trust and a number of simplifications in customs procedures.
This dynamics of Ukrainian companies coincides with the dynamics of most EU countries in the first 4 years of the program, and sometimes exceeds it. The biggest “jump” in AEOs occurred in the fourth year of the program, when “local simplifications” without authorizations were abolished, which was not the case in any EU country.
For comparison, the dynamics of AEO for the first 4 years of the program in the EU (2008-2011):
– more than half of the countries (17 Member States) had similar (Denmark, Ireland, Slovenia, Czech Republic) or lower (Finland, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece, etc.) rates of increase in AEO authorizations;
– 8 countries had a higher rate of increase in AEO authorizations, in particular, the United Kingdom*, Austria, Belgium, and Sweden;
– only 3 countries out of 28 EU countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands) increased AEOs at a much higher rate than Ukraine. These countries generally have much stricter requirements for companies to preserve and restore documents and other business processes, the reliability of which is a condition for obtaining this status. Therefore, the authorization of enterprises did not require a large number of additional requirements.
Currently, there is every reason to expect a positive trend in the number of AEO authorizations obtained by Ukrainian businesses: 31 more applications are pending at the State Customs Service. This demonstrates the interest of domestic businesses in the program.
It is worth reminding that AEO is a special status that demonstrates a high level of trust in a business entity. It provides customs simplifications and advantages in international trade, which can also compensate for a number of difficulties at the border caused by external circumstances. The AEO status opens up opportunities for enterprises to develop and compete in foreign and domestic markets.
In Ukraine, the AEO program began operating in August 2020 after the adoption of the necessary legislative changes in the process of approximation to European customs law and standards of foreign economic activity.
As reported, as of November 7, 2023, the provisions of the Customs Code of Ukraine regarding the possibility of customs clearance of goods without presenting them to the customs authorities became invalid. In order to continue to use the possibility of clearing goods at the facilities of enterprises, the State Customs Service recommended that businesses obtain the status of an authorized economic operator.
Having AEO authorization allows a company to take advantage of all the benefits of AEO and will facilitate access to the simplifications provided for by the Customs Code and the Convention on a Common Transit Procedure. In particular, the simplifications include reducing the level of risk in relation to the goods being transported, prioritizing customs formalities and releasing goods at the company’s location.
Earlier, roundtables were devoted to customs reform, where the event’s organizer and moderator Maksim Urakin stated that the State Customs Service provides 35-40% of state budget revenues, and these figures have remained stable in recent years. That is why customs reforms are so important for the country.
Moldova’s incumbent President Maia Sandu is leading the ranking of potential candidates for the October 30 elections, according to an opinion poll presented at a press conference on Tuesday.
According to the poll, if the presidential election were held next Sunday, 30.3% of respondents would vote for Sandu, 13% for the head of the Socialist Party, Igor Dodon (who has already announced that he will not run); 6.5% – for the leader of Our Party Renato Usatîi; 5.6% – for the former bashkan of Gagauzia Iryna Vlah; 5.4% – for the mayor of Chisinau Ion Ceban, who, like Dodon, has stated that he does not intend to run.
Almost one in five respondents said they had not yet decided who they would vote for. If we take into account only the voters who have decided, 39.3% are ready to vote for Sandu, 16.9% for Dodon, and 8.5% for Usatîi.
Former prosecutor Alexandru Stoianoglo, whom the Socialist Party decided to nominate as an opposition candidate, gained 1% in the poll.
“Stoyanoglo recently announced his intention to run. He was not included in the list of presidential candidates, and this 1% is those who named Stoyanoglo on their own. It is possible that Stoyanoglo’s rating may be significantly higher now,” said Vasyl Kantarzhy, director of the CBS-Reserarch sociological company.
Speaking about the level of trust in politicians, he noted that when asked an open question about trust in politicians, 21.3% of respondents named Sandu, 7.2% – Dodon and 4.6% – fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor. They are followed by the head of the Our Party, Usatîi (3.3%), and the mayor of Chisinau, Ceban (3.2%).
At the same time, 38.2% of respondents said they did not trust any of the politicians.
The poll was conducted by CBS-Reserarch on behalf of the Institute for European Policy and Reform. The survey was conducted on June 28-July 18 with the participation of 1119 people. The margin of error is 2.9%.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maksim Urakin presented an analytical material on the most important elections in the world in 2024, a more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=eGb95W02MgF6KzXU
The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club think tank and Director of Development and Commerce at Interfax-Ukraine, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the Center’s founder, Maksim Urakin, gross domestic product growth in May 2024 compared to May last year was approximately 3.7%.
“This figure is lower than the April and March levels, which amounted to 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively, due primarily to a drop in electricity generation. At the same time, the positive value of GDP change is related to exports and demand in the construction industry, as well as the recovery in metallurgy and machine building,” Urakin said.
Also, according to Urakin, the total public debt of Ukraine, after reaching a new historical high in April, decreased by $0.53 billion (0.3%) in May and amounted to $150.99 billion. Inflation in Ukraine increased to 0.6% in May compared to 0.2% in April in annualized terms, which is generally in line with the NBU’s target range.
Global economy
Maksim Urakin cited the World Bank’s (WB) forecast, according to which the global economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2024 (the earlier forecast assumed growth of 2.4%), and up to 2.7% in 2025-2026.
“In emerging economies, the average annual GDP growth rate in 2024-2025 is expected to reach 4%, which is slightly lower than last year. Growth in low-income countries will accelerate to 5% in 2024 compared to 3.8% in 2023. At the same time, developed countries are expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024 and by 1.7% in 2025,” the expert emphasized.
He also added that the growth prospects of the world’s poorest countries remain ambiguous.
“They face a heavy debt burden, reduced trade opportunities and other factors that negatively affect their economies. These countries need to find ways to stimulate private investment, reduce public debt, and improve education, healthcare, and basic infrastructure,” Urakin said.
According to the founder of the Experts Club, although food and energy prices have declined in all regions of the world, core inflation will remain high in the medium and long term.
