Moldova’s incumbent President Maia Sandu is leading the ranking of potential candidates for the October 30 elections, according to an opinion poll presented at a press conference on Tuesday.
According to the poll, if the presidential election were held next Sunday, 30.3% of respondents would vote for Sandu, 13% for the head of the Socialist Party, Igor Dodon (who has already announced that he will not run); 6.5% – for the leader of Our Party Renato Usatîi; 5.6% – for the former bashkan of Gagauzia Iryna Vlah; 5.4% – for the mayor of Chisinau Ion Ceban, who, like Dodon, has stated that he does not intend to run.
Almost one in five respondents said they had not yet decided who they would vote for. If we take into account only the voters who have decided, 39.3% are ready to vote for Sandu, 16.9% for Dodon, and 8.5% for Usatîi.
Former prosecutor Alexandru Stoianoglo, whom the Socialist Party decided to nominate as an opposition candidate, gained 1% in the poll.
“Stoyanoglo recently announced his intention to run. He was not included in the list of presidential candidates, and this 1% is those who named Stoyanoglo on their own. It is possible that Stoyanoglo’s rating may be significantly higher now,” said Vasyl Kantarzhy, director of the CBS-Reserarch sociological company.
Speaking about the level of trust in politicians, he noted that when asked an open question about trust in politicians, 21.3% of respondents named Sandu, 7.2% – Dodon and 4.6% – fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor. They are followed by the head of the Our Party, Usatîi (3.3%), and the mayor of Chisinau, Ceban (3.2%).
At the same time, 38.2% of respondents said they did not trust any of the politicians.
The poll was conducted by CBS-Reserarch on behalf of the Institute for European Policy and Reform. The survey was conducted on June 28-July 18 with the participation of 1119 people. The margin of error is 2.9%.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maksim Urakin presented an analytical material on the most important elections in the world in 2024, a more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=eGb95W02MgF6KzXU
The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club think tank and Director of Development and Commerce at Interfax-Ukraine, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the Center’s founder, Maksim Urakin, gross domestic product growth in May 2024 compared to May last year was approximately 3.7%.
“This figure is lower than the April and March levels, which amounted to 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively, due primarily to a drop in electricity generation. At the same time, the positive value of GDP change is related to exports and demand in the construction industry, as well as the recovery in metallurgy and machine building,” Urakin said.
Also, according to Urakin, the total public debt of Ukraine, after reaching a new historical high in April, decreased by $0.53 billion (0.3%) in May and amounted to $150.99 billion. Inflation in Ukraine increased to 0.6% in May compared to 0.2% in April in annualized terms, which is generally in line with the NBU’s target range.
Global economy
Maksim Urakin cited the World Bank’s (WB) forecast, according to which the global economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2024 (the earlier forecast assumed growth of 2.4%), and up to 2.7% in 2025-2026.
“In emerging economies, the average annual GDP growth rate in 2024-2025 is expected to reach 4%, which is slightly lower than last year. Growth in low-income countries will accelerate to 5% in 2024 compared to 3.8% in 2023. At the same time, developed countries are expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024 and by 1.7% in 2025,” the expert emphasized.
He also added that the growth prospects of the world’s poorest countries remain ambiguous.
“They face a heavy debt burden, reduced trade opportunities and other factors that negatively affect their economies. These countries need to find ways to stimulate private investment, reduce public debt, and improve education, healthcare, and basic infrastructure,” Urakin said.
According to the founder of the Experts Club, although food and energy prices have declined in all regions of the world, core inflation will remain high in the medium and long term.
Representatives of the leadership of left-wing parties from the New National Front, which won the French parliamentary elections, have agreed to nominate Lucie Castets for the post of prime minister, La Voix Du Nord reported on Tuesday.
“We propose Lucie Castetz as prime minister to lead a government capable of responding to the social and environmental urgencies that our fellow citizens have expressed during the last election,” wrote Fabien Roussel, leader of the French Communist Party, which is part of the New Popular Front.
French media note that Castetz currently holds the position of head of the financial department of the Paris City Hall. It is noted that she actively opposed the recent pension reform in the country, which raised the retirement age.
On June 9, President Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and called early legislative elections due to the defeat of the President’s social-liberal party, the Renaissance, in the European Parliament elections, which lost to the National Rally. In the early parliamentary elections on July 7, the pro-presidential coalition “Razom” lost to the left-wing bloc of parties “New People’s Front”. No political force gained an absolute parliamentary majority.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maksym Urakin presented a video analysis of the most important elections in the world in 2024, more details are available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=eGb95W02MgF6KzXU
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-May 2024 increased 1.2 times compared to the same period of 2023 – to $10.716 billion from $8.882 billion, the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) said on Monday.
According to its data, exports of goods from Ukraine for the period increased by 1.7% to $16.832 billion compared to January-May 2023, while imports increased by 8.3% to $27.548 billion.
State Statistics Committee specified that in May compared to April this year, seasonally adjusted exports decreased by 1.3% to $3.442bn, while imports decreased by 3.9% to $6.089bn.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in May-2024 was negative at $2.647bn, while in the previous month it was also negative at $2.850bn.
The export-import coverage ratio for the first five months of 2024 amounted to 0.61 (0.65 in January-May 2023).
State Statistics specified that foreign trade operations were conducted with partners from 220 countries.
Earlier, the analytical center Experts Club and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3.
The State Customs Service of Ukraine has granted the status of an authorized economic operator (AEO) with the right to apply simplified procedures to 46 companies, with 50 authorizations issued.
“A year ago, only one company in Ukraine had the AEO status, and now we are pleased to announce 50 authorizations received by 46 companies in total,” the agency said in a post on its Telegram channel.
The State Customs Service clarified that two of these companies received both types of authorizations at the same time: “on granting the right to apply simplifications” (AEO-C) and “on confirmation of safety and reliability” (AEO-B), which brings Ukraine closer to the possibility of concluding a mutual recognition agreement with other countries where the AEO program operates.
The agency emphasized that the list of roles that authorized companies play in the international supply chain has significantly expanded: 31 manufacturers (exporters), 10 importers, three warehouse holders and four companies that are carriers, forwarders and customs representatives have been granted AEO status.
According to the SCS website, the list has been updated with the following companies: Zaporizhzhia Non-Ferrous Alloys Plant (Ivano-Frankivsk), Firm Kaskad LLC (Dnipro), Ukrainian Kaolin Society (Hlukhivtsi, Vinnytsia region), Kliningspor (Velyki Mosty, Lviv region), and Oriflame Ukraine (Kyiv).
The AEO status was also granted to Popilnyansky Feed Mill (Kyiv), Tarkett Vinisin (Kalush, Ivano-Frankivsk region), and Agrosem (Kyiv).
The State Customs Service clarified that 28 applications for AEO authorization are currently under consideration. The agency believes that this figure indicates a consistently high interest of Ukrainian business entities in obtaining the relevant status.
In addition, the agency reminded companies planning to apply for AEO authorization or for the application of simplifications, transit simplifications, of the need to conduct a thorough self-assessment and fill out the relevant questionnaire, as this approach will allow companies to successfully pass the assessment of compliance with the criteria and/or conditions for granting authorization and, in particular, reduce the time for obtaining it.
“For its part, the State Customs Service, together with the Ministry of Finance, is developing initiatives that will expand the list of opportunities and benefits for businesses that have AEO authorization,” the service summarized.
As reported, the provisions of the Customs Code of Ukraine regarding the possibility of customs clearance of goods without presenting them to the customs authorities will cease to be effective on November 7, 2023. In order to continue to use the possibility of clearing goods at the facilities of enterprises, the State Customs Service recommended that businesses obtain the status of an authorized economic operator.
Having AEO authorization will allow the company to take advantage of all the benefits of AEO and facilitate access to the simplifications provided for by the Customs Code and the Convention on the Common Transit Procedure. In particular, the simplifications include reducing the level of risk in relation to the goods being transported, prioritizing customs formalities and releasing goods at the company’s location. Earlier, roundtables were devoted to customs reform, where the event’s organizer and moderator Maksim Urakin stated that the State Customs Service provides 35-40% of state budget revenues, and these figures have remained stable in recent years. That is why customs reforms are so important for the country.
Experts Club analyzed the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club think tank, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the Center’s founder, Maksym Urakin, in the first quarter of 2024, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 4.1% to 5.3% compared to the same period last year.
“The main growth factors were an increase in agricultural exports and production activity in certain industries. However, the negative balance of foreign trade in goods in the first quarter amounted to almost $6 billion, which is 10% more than last year. This is due to an increase in energy imports after the strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector in March,” Urakin said.
According to the founder of Experts Club, Ukraine’s national debt has reached a new historical high of $151 billion, which is almost 6 trillion hryvnia in hryvnia equivalent. Inflation in Ukraine in the first quarter was 1% year-on-year, which is in line with the NBU’s target range.
Global economy
Maksim Urakin noted that analysts forecast that the global economy will grow by 2% in 2024, which is lower than expected at the end of last year. The main reasons for the slowdown are high interest rates in developed countries and global geopolitical uncertainty.
“The US economy grew by 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, which is lower than the growth rates observed in previous quarters, but still at an acceptable level for the development of the country’s economy. China’s economy grew by 5% due to a partial recovery from the crisis and government injections into the technology cluster,” the expert summarized.
He also reminded that the European Commission expects the eurozone economy to grow modestly in 2024 by only 0.8%, i.e. even less than 1%.
“High inflation and weak domestic demand remain the main problems of the EU countries. However, the British economy showed a modest growth of 0.6%, which indicates a weak recovery from the pandemic and Brexit,” Urakin said.
The economic situation in the world remains tense and depends on many factors, including geopolitical risks and changes in the global economic and political landscape. The Experts Club will continue to monitor the situation and provide up-to-date and balanced news.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, PhD in Economics Maksim Urakin
