Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who had earlier declared himself the winner of the presidential race, said he intends to end wars in the world.
“I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to end wars,” Trump said in a speech to his supporters in Palm Beach, Florida.
He emphasized that in the four years of his first presidential term, “we have had no wars, except for the defeat of the Islamic State.”
The war has led to an 85% drop in inbound tourism, which will lead to a decrease in revenues of more than $1 billion by 2024 and more than $12.7 billion by 2030, the press service of the Ukrainian Hotel & Resort Association (UHRA) reports.
Such data follows from the study “Economic Impact of the War on the Tourism and Hospitality Sector of Ukraine: Losses, Innovations and Resilience”, conducted with the support of the State Agency for Tourism Development of Ukraine (DART) in partnership with the UHRA, the Association of Inbound Tour Operators of Ukraine (AITOU), the All-Ukrainian Association of Guides (UAG), the Ukrainian Restaurant Association (URA) and the Ukrainian Culinary Association (UCA).
“Before the outbreak of full-scale war, Ukraine’s tourism sector was on a path of steady growth, contributing $1.6 billion to the national economy and providing 1.2 million jobs. The war has undermined this progress, but with coordinated recovery efforts and targeted international investment, the sector can rebound and once again become a vital engine of Ukraine’s economic recovery,” UHRA President Iryna Sidletska was quoted as saying in the release.
According to the study, it is expected that by the end of 2024, tourism revenues in Ukraine will be more than $1 billion below pre-war forecasts. Total revenue losses by 2030 are estimated at $12.7 billion.
At the same time, the number of jobs by the end of 2024 will be reduced by more than 60% compared to pre-war levels. Experts expect that by 2034, the total number of jobs in the industry will increase to 1 million, which is 540 thousand jobs less than in the pre-war scenario.
The tourism industry is forced to develop in the face of a shortage of investment. The amount of suspended foreign and domestic private investment is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.
GART Chairwoman Mariana Oleskiv emphasized that despite the ongoing war, Ukraine’s tourism industry is showing resilience.
“We are grateful to our partners for analyzing the macroeconomic indicators of the Ukrainian tourism industry, which confirmed that the priority chosen by the Agency – the development of domestic tourism – is correct, especially in conditions when we have almost lost outbound tourism, and inbound tourism, according to this study, has decreased by 85%. Our efforts have resulted in a steady increase in tax revenues in the tourism sector and an increase in hotel occupancy in regions that are relatively safe and popular with tourists,” Oleskiv said.
The report emphasizes the enormous potential of Ukraine’s tourism industry to contribute to the post-war economic recovery and achieve a key role as a generator of national GDP. The experts’ recommendations include investing in the restoration of war-damaged monuments and hospitality facilities; focusing on energy-efficient and green projects; supporting the retraining of displaced workers, veterans, and people with disabilities; and strengthening the promotion of domestic and regional tourism to stabilize the local economy.
Despite the enormous challenges, the authors of the report emphasize that with proper support, Ukraine’s tourism sector can gradually recover and become a powerful symbol of resilience, peace, and economic strength.
The full report will be available for download in October 2024 on the resources of the partners who participated in this study.
How Ukrainian business migrates during the great war
Almost 19 thousand companies have relocated since the beginning of 2022, according to the Unified State Register. Kyiv and Zakarpattia regions were the most popular destinations for business. Among all companies, wholesalers relocate most often.
Of the total number of companies that have changed their location since the start of the full-scale war, just over 1,000 have moved from the city to the region. Half of them – more than 600 companies – moved from Kyiv, and another 60, or 5.1%, from Odesa region.
Kyiv region is the most popular choice for relocation – 546 relocations. This is almost every second business relocation since the start of the full-scale war. The most popular route was from Kyiv to Kyiv region: 359 relocations. In fact, 30% of all cases when businesses relocate to the region are on this route.
Other routes were less popular. For example, the routes from Lviv to Kyiv region and from Kyiv to Zakarpattia are in second and third place, with 2.7% and 2.6% respectively (30-32 companies).
The leaders in relocations were companies engaged in wholesale trade – 344 relocations (29.3%) and the transportation industry – 92 relocations (7.8%)
Ukroliya LLC with a turnover of over UAH 4 billion became the largest company to change its location. The company moved from Kyiv to Poltava region. Kyiv-Atlantic Ukraine LLC, with a turnover of over UAH 2 billion, also left Kyiv region, but to Cherkasy region.
Kercher LLC with a turnover of more than UAH 1 billion closes the list of top business migrants, as the company changed its place of registration to Kyiv region.
“We started preparing for the move 7 years ago – we bought land and started construction in the Kyiv region in 2020, which was interrupted by the Russian attack and partial occupation of the region. Within 4 months after the liberation of Kyiv region, the company resumed construction, so at the end of 2023, our team moved into a new space. In general, the location of the company outside the city, in the regions, is part of the philosophy of the Kercher brand throughout Europe,” comments Nadiya Kreposna, marketing manager at Kercher.
Kyivstar, a leading mobile operator in Ukraine, is investing UAH 5.8 million in an educational initiative to help children who lost one or both parents during the war. The project aims to provide IT education and the necessary technical devices for more than 340 boys and girls in high school.
The mobile operator is joining forces with GoITeens, an online IT academy for children and teenagers, and dobro.ua, a charity platform, to launch an educational initiative aimed at supporting high school students who are wards of the Children of Heroes charity foundation, which takes care of more than 7,000 children who lost their parents due to the war.
“The IT industry in Ukraine has demonstrated incredible growth, and we at Kyivstar feel it is our duty to help develop the potential of our children. This is especially important for those who lost their parents during the war. Our investment in education and development of digital infrastructure is a reflection of the company’s social responsibility and contribution to creating a progressive future for Ukraine,” said Oleksandr Komarov, President of Kyivstar.
The GoITeens educational program embodies a project-based approach that will not only allow young people to successfully work as freelancers or in IT companies, but also to found their own technology startups before they start university. Kyivstar, emphasizing the importance of access to modern technologies in the educational process, partially provides children in need with laptops. This allows them not only to actively participate in real projects that meet the requirements of the modern IT market, but also provides them with practical skills and valuable experience that is the foundation for a future career in the industry.
“Our goal to provide quality education requires considerable effort and investment: in teachers, materials, and infrastructure. We are grateful to Kyivstar for supporting this important initiative, as 340 Ukrainian children will receive up-to-date IT education and the opportunity to create their own success story. This is a great contribution to the upbringing of children whose parents were killed by the enemy for our independence,” said Vyacheslav Polinovsky, CEO of GoITeens, an online IT academy for children.
The charity platform dobro.ua has created a project so that anyone who wants to help teenagers get an IT education can join and contribute to their education and the future of Ukraine.
“Educational projects are always in the focus of our platform. Education is the best investment a society can make in its future. Children who lost their parents during the war need deeper care and support. We will never be able to bring back their loved ones, but we can try to prepare them for adulthood, where they will be in demand as specialists,” emphasized Iryna Hutsal, director of the charity platform dobro.ua.
Kyivstar together with its partners calls on the community to join the initiative and train more children who lost one or both parents during the war. Our goal is to raise UAH 1.2 million and teach 500 children together.
Let’s teach our children because we live here!
About Kyivstar
Kyivstar is Ukraine’s largest electronic communications operator, serving 24 million mobile subscribers and more than 1.1 million Home Internet subscribers as of September 2023. The company provides services using a wide range of mobile and fixed technologies, including 4G, Big Data, Cloud solutions, cybersecurity services, digital TV, etc. Kyivstar helps subscribers, society and the country to overcome the challenges of wartime. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the company has allocated UAH 1.8 billion to support the Armed Forces, society and subscribers. Kyivstar’s sole shareholder is the international VEON Group. The Group’s shares are listed on NASDAQ (New York) and Euronext (Amsterdam). Kyivstar has been operating in Ukraine for 25 years and is recognized as the largest taxpayer in the telecom market, the best employer and a socially responsible company.
For more information: pr@kyivstar.net, www.kyivstar.ua
About GoITeens
GoITeens is an online IT academy for children and teenagers aged 7 to 17. It is a Ukrainian product-based EdTech company that is a part of the EdTech company GoIT. For 8 years of its existence, it has provided additional IT education to more than 50 thousand children and teenagers. It teaches digital professions from Digital Design to Python developers. Winner of the Ukrainian Business Award 2023 in the category of educational services. Author of free patriotic charity marathons. For the project “Building the Ukraine of the Future in Roblox”, she received the X-RAY award in the Metaverse and Artificial Intelligence nomination.
About dobro.ua
The dobro.ua charity platform is the first Ukrainian platform of kindness, a fundraising platform where you can quickly and efficiently raise funds for charitable and social projects of any kind. The platform is powered by the Ukrainian Philanthropic Marketplace, a foundation that has raised more than UAH 704,000,000 for charity over 12 years, supported more than 7,800 projects, and won all national awards in the field of charity.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has virtually eliminated the demand for foreign currency loans, contributing to a reorientation to lending in the national currency, which is a good indicator for the economy, according to Pervin Dadashova, director of the NBU’s Financial Stability Department.
“Hryvnia lending prevails, and in general, in principle, the hryvnia is more attractive for lending than foreign currency. This is very important, and I think that this love for lending in hryvnia should continue,” she said at a discussion held by the Center for Economic Strategies (CES).
Dadashova noted that earlier the main motivation for foreign currency lending was lower interest rates on such loans, which led to problems in the absence of real needs and revenues in foreign currency. According to her, the risks of foreign currency lending, which increased during the war, have sharply reduced business interest in the dumb
The Director of the NBU’s Financial Stability Department noted that the loan portfolio has recently stabilized and returned to a slight increase, and now banks are faced with the task of compensating for its loss during the war, which, according to various metrics, amounted to about 15%.
“Now the quality of the loan portfolio is absolutely normal, it is even better than before the war. That is, banks are not losing as much credit risk as they did a few months ago,” the expert emphasized.
She clarified that the small growth in the loan portfolio so far is largely due to the growth under government support programs.
“However, a greater openness to new lending is already noticeable, including in our surveys,” Dadashova noted.
Among other trends, she noted an increase in the share of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in the loan portfolio to more than 50%.
“A significant part of them belongs to business groups, so it is not a pure small business, it is still a big business, but it is structured in a certain way. But in the total portfolio, 15% of loans are granted to debtors who do not belong to business groups,” the expert said, emphasizing that they are a “good engine” for market lending.
After Azerbaijan established control over the former Nagorno-Karabakh, the Transcaucasus region entered a new era, where the political and economic prospects of the countries of the region became a subject of discussion in the international arena. In light of this, experts from various countries are analyzing the current situation and trying to predict the future of relations between the countries in the region. A new video published on the YouTube channel “Experts club” was devoted to this very topic, in which Azerbaijani military analyst, leading expert of the analytical center “STEM” Agil Rustamzadeh and the founder of the Kiev analytical center “Experts club”, candidate of economic sciences Maxim Urakin shared their opinion on the situation.
Military-political aspect
The experts emphasize the importance of the reached mutual understanding on the Karabakh issue.
“The resolution of the conflict has created a basis for the resumption of diplomatic dialog and economic cooperation between the countries of the Transcaucasus. Azerbaijan’s confrontation with Armenia is conditioned not only by the Karabakh conflict, the point is that those people who created this geopolitical paradigm were engaged in shaping the worldview of the Armenian population. A part of the Armenian population still believes that they once had a state that included the territories of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia. With the emergence of Western institutions and the change of Armenians’ views, they begin to realize that enmity with such a geopolitical player as Turkey is a dead-end way of the country’s development. It is a way to nowhere, especially when these countries have no territorial claims to you, but you have territorial claims to your neighbors,” Rustamzadeh stressed.
The expert also notes that the signing of a possible peace treaty will give Armenia an impetus to move to a new level of development, will allow it to become not an object but a subject of international politics.
“I meet such an opinion both in Azerbaijan and Turkish colleagues. It is that under certain changes Turkey and Azerbaijan can become the guarantor of Armenia’s territorial integrity. Therefore, I believe that with the pragmatism shown by the Armenian people, the government and the political elite of Armenia, Armenia has chances to become a pro-Western democratic country,” Rustamzadeh said.
In his opinion, in order to ensure long-term stability, it is necessary to analyze all aspects of the conflict and its consequences for regional security.
Economic aspect
Maxim Urakin emphasized the economic sphere of relations between the countries of the region.
“Economy and politics are closely linked, and trade relations between the countries of the Transcaucasus play an important role in shaping the political landscape of the region,” Urakin noted.
The expert also drew attention to how export destinations affect the countries’ political preferences.
“Most of Azerbaijan and Iran’s exports are directed to Europe and Asia, while Turkey’s exports are much more diversified,” the economist emphasized.
Urakin also analyzed each country’s exports and their trade relations in detail, emphasizing the interconnectedness of economic and political factors in the region.
Development Prospects
Rustamzadeh and Urakin agree that further sustainable development of the region requires further work to resolve the remaining conflict situations and increase economic cooperation between the countries.
“Restoring trust and strengthening economic ties between the countries of the Transcaucasus will contribute to the creation of a favorable climate for investment and growth of the regional economy,” Rustamzadeh concluded.
You can learn more about the prospects of development of the Transcaucasus after the end of the Karabakh conflict from the video on the Experts club channel at the link:
Subscribe to the channel here:
ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN, CAUCASUS, KARABAKH, NAGORNY_KARABAKH, RUSTAMZADEH, URAKIN, WAR
