In its July WASDE report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year to 24 million metric tons from 23.5 million metric tons, which had been expected a month earlier.
According to the WASDE report, released on July 10, 2026, the forecast for global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year remained virtually unchanged at 819.97 million metric tons, compared to 820.06 million metric tons in June. At the same time, the USDA notes that the wheat production forecast was raised for Russia and Ukraine due to favorable conditions for winter wheat.
The USDA raised its forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports to 14.5 million metric tons from 14 million metric tons a month earlier. According to the report, global wheat exports for the 2026/27 marketing year have been raised to 213.1 million metric tons due to increased shipments from Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine, which more than offset the downward revision to Canada’s export forecast.
In the WASDE tables for the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine’s wheat production is estimated at 24.1 million metric tons, with exports at 14 million metric tons. In the 2024/25 marketing year, according to the USDA, Ukraine produced 23.4 million metric tons of wheat and exported 15.75 million metric tons.
The revision of the Ukrainian forecast comes amid a tighter global supply-demand balance. The USDA lowered its forecast for global ending wheat stocks in the 2026/27 marketing year to 272.8 million metric tons, which is 2.6 million metric tons less than the June estimate. At the same time, the forecast for global consumption was raised to 826.2 million metric tons.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture had previously forecast the 2026 grain harvest at approximately 60.4 million metric tons, including about 22.4 million metric tons of wheat, about 4.7 million metric tons of barley, and about 31.6 million metric tons of corn.
According to the State Statistics Service, in 2025, Ukraine’s wheat harvest increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million metric tons, and the corn harvest rose by 14.6% to 30.9 million metric tons, while barley production fell by 2.4% to 5.2 million metric tons.
Ukraine remains one of the key wheat exporters in the Black Sea region; however, export volumes in the 2026/27 marketing year will depend not only on the harvest but also on the operation of the maritime corridor, logistics via the Danube and western borders, ship insurance, and the security situation regarding port infrastructure.
The Astarta agricultural holding has begun the harvest at its farms in Poltava Oblast and plans to harvest winter wheat from 38,000 hectares and winter rapeseed from 14,000 hectares, the company’s press service reported.
“Despite a delayed start to spring fieldwork due to unfavorable weather conditions, the harvest of early-maturing grains began at the optimal time,” the press service quoted Andriy Zagorulko, director of the holding’s Department of Crop Production, Logistics, and Mechanization, as saying.
He noted that production teams had completed all necessary preparatory work, and that the key priorities during the harvest remain harvest quality, minimizing losses, worker safety, and seamless coordination among all involved teams.
In the third ten-day period of July, enterprises in the Western region will join the harvest campaign.
“Astarta” is a vertically integrated agro-industrial holding operating in seven regions of Ukraine and is the country’s largest sugar producer. The company’s portfolio includes five sugar refineries, agricultural enterprises with a land bank of 214,000 hectares (including 129,000 hectares in Poltava Oblast, 42,000 hectares in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and 16,000 hectares in Vinnytsia Oblast), and dairy farms with 30,000 head of cattle. The holding company also operates a soybean processing plant and a bioenergy complex in the Poltava region, as well as a network of six grain elevators. Astarta’s shares are listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
Astarta’s net profit for 2025 fell 4.2-fold to $19.94 million, while consolidated revenue declined by 23% to $472 million.
As of July 7, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 1.022 million metric tons of early-season grains and legumes from the new crop, according to the press service of the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture.
“This year, due to weather conditions, the harvest began somewhat later. But farmers are working as hard as they can, and we’ve already reached the first million metric tons of grain—that’s a good result for this time of year. It was made possible by the coordinated efforts of producers and the efficient organization of fieldwork, even amid security and logistical challenges,” the press service quoted Deputy Minister Taras Vysotsky as saying.
According to the ministry, the harvest of early grain and legume crops is underway in 15 regions. Grain has already been threshed on an area of 251,400 hectares, which accounts for 3% of the projected area, with an average yield of 40.7 centners per hectare.
Farmers have already harvested 719.4 thousand metric tons of barley, 264.6 thousand metric tons of wheat, and 35.1 thousand metric tons of peas.
In the Kherson and Ivano-Frankivsk regions, the rapeseed harvest has begun, with 2.68 thousand metric tons harvested so far.
The largest volumes of grain from the new harvest were harvested by farmers in the Odesa (389 thousand metric tons) and Mykolaiv (347.2 thousand metric tons) regions.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukrainian farmers planted over 20 million hectares with winter and spring grains and oilseeds in 2026. Specifically, 5.88 million hectares were planted with spring grains and legumes, and 7 million hectares with industrial crops.
Ukraine exported nearly 14 million metric tons of wheat in the 2025/2026 marketing year, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA).
The main export markets for Ukrainian wheat were Egypt (3.9 million metric tons), Algeria (2.8 million metric tons), Indonesia (2.1 million metric tons), Yemen (1 million metric tons), and Spain (678,000 metric tons).
According to the association, the decline in total exports of grains and oilseeds during the season was due to a lower harvest, the introduction of quotas on Ukrainian wheat imports into the European Union, and logistical difficulties caused by Russian shelling of energy and transportation infrastructure, particularly ports and maritime grain terminals.
The agricultural holding KSG Agro has begun harvesting winter barley, winter wheat, and spring barley across a total area of 4,960 hectares.
According to the company’s press service in response to a request from Interfax-Ukraine, winter wheat will be harvested from 3,700 hectares, winter barley from 562 hectares, and spring barley from 698 hectares.
“This year’s weather conditions have allowed the entire grain crop to reach maturity and be ready for harvest almost simultaneously. In particular, the moisture content of the wheat grain is 13–16%, which is the optimal level for starting the harvest. While we previously planned to harvest crops in stages, under current weather conditions we are conducting an intensive and time-compressed harvest campaign that will last about 10–12 days,” the press service quoted Vitaliy Nekhay, head of KSG Agro’s crop production division, as saying.
The report notes that nine combine harvesters and 25 trucks for transporting grain are being used to harvest winter barley and winter wheat.
“The holding expects slightly higher yield figures than previously forecast. In this regard, the farms are paying special attention to minimizing losses during harvesting to prevent the grain from drying out and to ensure an optimal gross harvest,” the statement said, citing the head of the crop production division.
As previously reported, the agricultural holding KSG Agro intends to invest over 25 million UAH in creating an autonomous water supply system for one of its pig farms and plans to fully supply it with water from its own sources by the end of 2026.
KSG Agro is a vertically integrated holding company engaged in pig farming, as well as the production, storage, processing, and sale of grains and oilseeds. The company’s land bank in the Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions totals approximately 21,000 hectares. The agricultural holding is among the top five largest pork producers in Ukraine.
Serhiy Kasyanov remains the ultimate beneficiary of the holding company; through Olbis Investment LTD SA, he owns 47.83% of the shares, while 47.57% of the shares are freely traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
In its June report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year (July–June) to 23.5 million tons from 23 million tons, as projected a month earlier, and also increased its export estimate from 13 million tons to 14 million tons.
In the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA analysts attributed the forecast revision for Ukraine to favorable weather conditions in the spring.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the upward revision of the forecast for Ukraine was one of the factors behind the increase in the forecast for global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year from 819.1 million tons to 820.1 million tons. Global wheat trade was also revised upward—from 211.7 million tons to 212.0 million tons.
In addition, the USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine’s barley harvest in the 2026/27 marketing year by 300,000 tons—from 5.5 million tons to 5.8 million tons, as expected a month earlier.
The export estimate was also increased by the same 300,000 tons, which, together with other grains excluding wheat and corn, currently stands at 2.49 million tons.
As for the corn harvest forecast, analysts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture left it unchanged at 30 million tons this year, compared to 30.9 million tons last year. Corn exports from Ukraine are expected to reach 23 million tons, the same as a month earlier.
As reported, in its May report, the USDA published its first forecast for Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year, estimating the wheat harvest at 23 million tons, exports at 13 million tons, and corn production and exports at 30 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively.
As reported, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture forecasts the 2026 grain harvest at around 60.4 million tons, which is only 1%, or 0.64 million tons, less than last year. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, the harvest of key crops could amount to about 22.4 million tons of wheat, about 4.7 million tons of barley, and approximately 31.6 million tons of corn.
According to data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2025 increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million tons, the corn harvest by 14.6% to 30.9 million tons, while barley production decreased by 2.4% to 5.2 million tons.
