In January–April 2036, Ukraine exported 3.34 million tons of wheat, which is 16% less than in the same period of 2025; in monetary terms, this figure decreased by 14.7% to $745 million.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service, the main buyer of Ukrainian wheat during this period, as in the previous year, was Egypt, but its share of total exports rose to nearly 38.9% ($289.7 million) compared to 22% ($192 million) in January–April 2025.
Algeria spent $161.7 million on Ukrainian wheat—14% less than in the first four months of last year—and its share of total exports decreased slightly to 21.7%.
In contrast, wheat exports to Spain in January–April fell by more than 2.8 times—to $67.1 million, and its share dropped to 9% from 21.86%. At the same time, in April, this country doubled its purchases of Ukrainian wheat compared to April 2025, reaching $41.3 million.
Overall, in April, Ukraine exported $290 million worth of wheat, which is 63.9% more than in April 2025. Meanwhile, wheat shipments to Egypt increased fivefold—to $156.3 million—while exports to Algeria decreased by 32.8%—to $30.7 million.
Exports of Ukrainian wheat to other countries in January–April fell by more than a quarter—to $226.6 million, and in April specifically—by 22.7%, to $61.6 million.
As reported, in 2025 Ukraine exported 13.63 million tons of wheat—34% less than in 2024—reducing revenue by 20% to nearly $3 billion.
In its May report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its first forecast for wheat and corn exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2026 marketing year (MY) – 13 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively, which is 0.5 million tons and 1 million tons more than in the current MY.
According to USDA estimates, Ukraine’s wheat harvest in the next MY will decline to 23 million tons from 24.1 million tons last year, but ending stocks for the year will increase by only 0.9 million tons—to 4.53 million tons—while this year they are expected to rise by 2.9 million tons.
As for the corn harvest, USDA analysts forecast it at 30 million tons this year, compared to 30.9 million tons last year. The increase in exports is also expected to result from a decrease in ending stocks by 0.19 million tons, while this marketing year they are projected to increase by 1.91 million tons.
Taking other crops into account, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects this year’s forage grain harvest to decrease to 36.08 million tons from 37.22 million tons last year, but an increase in its exports next marketing year to 25.19 million tons from 24.30 million tons this marketing year, also due to carryover stocks accumulated this year.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy forecasts a grain harvest of approximately 60.4 million tons in 2026, which is only 1%, or 0.64 million tons, less than last year. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, the harvest of major crops may amount to: wheat – about 22.4 million tons, barley – about 4.7 million tons, and corn – about 31.6 million tons.
According to the State Statistics Service, the wheat harvest in 2025 increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million tons, corn by 14.6% to 30.9 million tons, while the barley harvest decreased by 2.4% to 5.2 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects this year’s wheat harvest to decrease to 819.06 million tons and its exports to 211.70 million tons, down from 843.84 million tons and 222.68 million tons, respectively, last year.
The USDA’s first forecast for global corn production this year is 1,295.38 million tons, with exports for the 2026/27 marketing year at 206.91 million tons, while last year’s harvest was 1,312.68 million tons, and exports for the 2025-26 marketing year are expected to reach 213.59 million tons.
Ukraine is seeing a steady trend toward reducing acreage for grain crops in favor of oilseeds, driven by a significant difference in their profit margins, said Maksym Kharchenko, an analyst at the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
“The profitability of wheat production, and of grains in general, is currently lower than that of oilseeds. This trend has been clearly evident over the past few seasons. While before the full-scale invasion, the area under wheat was significantly larger than that under sunflowers, the situation has changed since 2023: sunflower crops in Ukraine have become more stable and extensive than grain crops,” he said during the Black Sea Grain.Kyiv conference on Wednesday.
According to UkrAgroConsult, the profitability of wheat cultivation in the current season is less than 30%, while for sunflowers this figure reaches about 50%. The profitability of other oilseed crops—rapeseed and soybeans—remains at a similarly high level.
The analyst emphasized that despite the loss of some territories, the area under oilseed crops has not only recovered but, in some segments, has exceeded pre-war levels. This reflects farmers’ strategic shift away from grains in favor of more profitable crops.
According to the infographic, the crop mix of major export crops in Ukraine is shifting in line with profitability indicators. Until 2022, wheat led in terms of acreage, but its unprofitability—at -14.9% in 2022 and -1.8% in 2023—forced farmers to rethink their priorities. The graph shows a so-called “inflection point” in the 2022/23 season, after which sunflowers finally surpassed wheat. Currently, it offers the highest profitability at 48%, while the profitability of wheat and corn stands at only 26% and 23%, respectively, which serves as an incentive for farmers to further expand the acreage under oilseed crops.
“We are seeing an increase in production across all oilseed crops. In particular, we expect the sunflower harvest (in the 2026/2027 season – IF-U) to grow to 13.7 million tons due to better yields and increased acreage,“ forecasts ”UkrAgroConsult.”
In its April report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025–2026 marketing year (MY) to 12.5 million tons from 13.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million tons (7.4%). Meanwhile, the estimate for Ukraine’s wheat harvest remains unchanged at 24.0 million tons, while the forecast for ending stocks has been raised to 3.93 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons.
Globally, the USDA raised its forecast for wheat production in the 2025–2026 MY to 844.15 million tons, while the estimate for global exports was lowered to 221.88 million tons, and ending stocks could rise to 283.12 million tons. Among major exporters, the agency raised its harvest estimate for the EU to 145.11 million tons and for Russia to 90.3 million tons, while increasing its forecast for Russian exports to 44.5 million tons.
The global wheat market has entered the spring season with increased volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fierce competition among key exporters, according to the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
Analysts noted that the Black Sea region remains the main benchmark for global prices, and Ukrainian wheat quotations at ports on CPT terms are currently in the range of $215–222 per ton. Demand from major importers in North Africa and the Middle East remains strong, as evidenced by buyers’ willingness to operate at current price levels even during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
At the same time, in EU countries, large carryover grain stocks and weaker export rates continue to put pressure on domestic prices. Against this backdrop, logistics costs and energy prices are playing an increasingly significant role in shaping the global market, as they directly determine suppliers’ competitiveness and the overall economics of production.
Among the key trends of the season, UkrAgroConsult highlighted the formation of a new structure of global trade under the influence of geopolitical factors. Analysts predict that increased investor interest in commodity assets and changes in traditional logistics routes will be decisive for price dynamics in the short term.
Over the first eight months of the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine exported 9.03 million tons of wheat, with Egypt (2.36 million tons) and Algeria (1.6 million tons) becoming the largest buyers. Indonesia ranked third with 1.4 million tons, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) reported.
Among the top ten buyers of Ukrainian wheat, the UGA also names Yemen with 758 thousand tons, Vietnam with 531 thousand tons, Lebanon with 322 thousand tons, Spain with 304 thousand tons, Tunisia with 284 thousand tons, Italy with 197 thousand tons, and Thailand with 177 thousand tons. This supply structure shows that the main export destinations for Ukrainian wheat remain the countries of the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
As of early March, customs statistics had already recorded exports of about 9.1 million tons of wheat and 22.3 million tons of grains and legumes in total since the start of the season. This is 25% less than on the same date of the previous marketing year. For comparison, in the 2024/25 MY, Ukraine exported 15.7 million tons of wheat and 40.6 million tons of grains and legumes overall.
At the same time, the Ukrainian government stated in November that it did not plan to restrict wheat exports during the current season. According to Deputy Minister of Economy Taras Vysotskyi, the 2025 wheat harvest will amount to about 23 million tons, while exports in the 2025/26 MY may reach approximately 17 million tons. This means that, based on the results of the first eight months, Ukraine has already shipped more than half of the expected seasonal volume.
The growing role of Egypt and Algeria became noticeable as early as the first half of the season. According to Elevatorist, citing APK-Inform analysts, from July to November Egypt increased its purchases of Ukrainian wheat to 2 million tons compared with 664 thousand tons a year earlier, while Algeria increased them to 932 thousand tons compared with 526 thousand tons. Indonesia, during the same period, on the contrary, slightly reduced its imports of Ukrainian wheat to 1.41 million tons.
In the opinion of the Experts Club analytical center, the change in export geography appears to be structural. Back in the summer, the Ukrainian authorities directly pointed out that after the EU restrictions on imports of Ukrainian wheat, part of the volume would have to be redirected to the markets of North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. At the beginning of January, exports of Ukrainian wheat were already clearly concentrated in the MENA direction: during the first eight days of the month, shipments were focused primarily on Algeria, Egypt, and Yemen, while EU activity was minimal.
For Ukraine, this means that the markets of Egypt, Algeria, Indonesia, and other Global South countries are becoming key for monetizing the harvest and generating foreign currency revenues for the agricultural sector. At the same time, such a model increases dependence on stable maritime logistics through the Black Sea corridor, competitiveness against Russian and Romanian grain, and solvent demand in importing countries of the Mediterranean and Asia.
