Ukraine has exported 35.093 mln tonnes of grains and pulses since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year (MY, July-June) as of April 30, of which 2.269 mln tonnes were shipped since the beginning of the month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported, citing the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of April 29 last year, the total shipments amounted to 40.711 million tons.
At the same time, since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has exported 13.873 mln tonnes of wheat (15.55 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY), 2.264 mln tonnes of barley (2.181 mln tonnes), 10.8 thsd tonnes of rye (1.2 thsd tonnes) and 18.437 mln tonnes of corn (22.502 mln tonnes).
The total export of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of April 30 is estimated at 58.4 thsd tonnes (86 thsd tonnes in 2023/24 MY), including 54.2 thsd tonnes of wheat (81.3 thsd tonnes).
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which provides updated forecasts for wheat and corn production, consumption, trade, and stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Wheat: global trends
– Production: downwardly revised by 0.3 mln tons to 796.9 mln tons, mainly due to lower production in Saudi Arabia and the EU.
– Consumption: decreased by 1.4 mln tons to 805.2 mln tons, due to reduced food, seed and industrial use in India and China.
– Trade: exports forecast reduced by 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million tons. Exports are expected to decline for Russia (-1.0 million tons to 44.0 million tons), Australia (-0.5 million tons to 25.5 million tons), and the EU (-0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons), partially offset by increased exports from Canada (+0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons) and Ukraine (+0.5 million tons to 16.0 million tons).
– Inventories: global ending stocks increased by 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million tons, down 3% year-on-year and the lowest level since 2015/16 MY.
According to the forecast of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the global wheat production in 2025 will amount to 795 mln tonnes, which is the same as in 2024. The organization recorded mixed trends among the largest producing countries.
In the EU, production is expected to increase to 135.5 million tons (+12% yoy) due to the expansion of crops and improved weather conditions. At the same time, the FAO points to the lack of precipitation in the eastern part of the bloc, which may affect the final yield.
In Russia, wheat production is expected to decline due to low soil moisture and reduced acreage. A similar situation is observed in the US, where drought has affected winter wheat crops, which will lead to a decrease in the overall harvest.
According to FAO, wheat production in Ukraine will be below the five-year average. The main reasons are the ongoing armed conflict and dry weather conditions.
In Canada, wheat acreage is expected to increase due to price incentives, but this will be balanced by lower yields. Production will remain at the level of 2024, but will exceed the five-year average.
FAO predicts that India’s harvest will reach a record level of 115.4 million tons. The growth is due to the expansion of acreage, government subsidies and high market prices.
In the Middle East and North Africa, the harvest is expected to decline amid a lack of precipitation. In Argentina, production is expected to increase due to the expansion of crops. In Australia, a moderate decline in harvest volume is forecast, but the figure will remain above 30 million tons.
According to the FAO, the global grain production in 2024 amounted to 2.849 billion tons, which is 0.3% lower year-on-year. The forecast of grain consumption in 2024/25 marketing year is 2.868 billion tons, including 1.534 billion tons of feed grains (+1.1% yoy) and 795.4 million tons of wheat, which is slightly lower than the previous season.
According to national sources, Serbia plans to keep the wheat harvest within 3 mln tons. It is expected that weather conditions will allow to achieve above-average results. The country will continue to export to Italy, Turkey and other countries in the region.
Earlier, the information and analytical center Experts Club released the analysis of the main wheat producers by countries for the period of 1991-2023 – https://youtube.com/shorts/NMwidrCI6iY?si=hE3BXbdvWOG30Nld
In March, Ukraine exported 1.1 million tons of wheat, which is one of the highest monthly figures of the current season, in April, the volume of supplies may be slightly lower, but still remain at a high level, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
“For April, 850 thousand tons of wheat have already been contracted, and the total monthly exports may reach 1 million tons. Despite the general stagnation of demand in the European market, Ukrainian grain is finding its buyers, particularly in Egypt,” analysts said.
However, according to experts, the situation is less optimistic from the price point of view. The main export destinations for Ukrainian wheat – Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands – remain passive in terms of new purchases, and the reintroduction of duties on Ukrainian grain to the EU in June may further complicate access to the European market.
“There is no positive news for the wheat price so far. The stock market has been sinking in recent weeks, and we see a serious gap between the physical market and stock exchange quotes. While the FOB price in Ukraine is currently $60 per ton higher than in Chicago, by June-July the markets usually synchronize. This means that the Ukrainian physical price may sink, especially as the new harvest approaches,” Pusk commented.
According to analysts, the conditional average price for wheat of the 2nd class of the new harvest for July is forecasted at $190-200 per ton on a CPT-port basis, while currently this figure is fixed at $210-215. The potential decline could be up to $20 per ton.
“If you have the opportunity, you should not rush to sell. Historically, in July-August, the market is saturated with wheat from all major exporting countries – Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and the US – and even with a deficit balance, the price usually falls. At the same time, the seasonal model shows that from October to December, the price may rise to $220-235 per ton on a CPT-port basis. Therefore, if the financial cushion allows, it is worth considering postponing sales,” the analysts added.
They stated that flour mills are currently offering the best prices on the domestic market – 10500-11000 UAH/ton for 2-3 grade wheat.
“Given the sluggish export demand, this may be a more profitable solution for farmers,” Pusk believes.
In July-January of 2024-2025 marketing year (MY), Ukraine exported 40.4 thsd tonnes of wheat flour, down 36.1% year-on-year, reports the Association of Millers, citing the State Customs Service.
According to the infographics published in Facebook, the export volumes in the season-24/25 are slightly lower than in the previous seasons – for 7 months of 2023/24 MY Ukraine exported 63.2 thsd tonnes of wheat flour, and in 2022/23 MY – 79.8 thsd tonnes.
At the same time, about 17.0 thsd tonnes were exported to the EU countries, almost 12.4 thsd tonnes – to Moldova, 8.1 thsd tonnes – to Palestine, 1.5 thsd tonnes – to Israel.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has adjusted its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY, July 2024-June 2025) and lowered it by 0.5 million tons to 15.5 million tons, and corn by 1 million tons to 22 million tons.
The updated USDA forecast for February indicates that in 2024/25 MY wheat and corn production in Ukraine will remain at 22.9 mln tonnes and 26.5 mln tonnes, respectively.
At the same time, a slight increase in wheat production and consumption is expected, however, according to USDA, trade volumes and ending stocks will be lower. Accordingly, the forecast for global wheat production was increased by 0.6 million tons to 793.8 million tons, due to increased production in Kazakhstan (+0.6 million tons, to 18.6 million tons) and Argentina (+0.2 million tons, to 17.7 million tons).
Global wheat consumption will also increase by 1.8 mln tonnes to 803.7 mln tonnes due to higher use of feed grains and transitional residues in the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine.
At the same time, the global wheat trade will decrease by 3 million tons to 209 million tons due to the decline in exports by the EU (-1.0 million tons, to 28.0 million tons), Mexico, Russia (-0.5 million tons, to 45.5 million tons), Turkey and Ukraine (-0.5 million tons, to 15.5 million tons). The largest reduction is expected in China – by 2.5 million tons, to 8.0 million tons, which will be the lowest imports in the last five years, although last year this country was the world’s leading supplier of wheat.
The same picture is expected for the world ending stocks in 2024/25 MY, which, according to the updated forecast, will decrease by 1.3 mln tonnes to 257.6 mln tonnes, due to the reduction in China, partially offset by the increase in stocks in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
In 2024/25 MY, the global corn market is expected to decline in all indicators. The global corn production is expected to decline by 1.9 mln tonnes to 1 bln 212.5 mln tonnes, mainly due to Argentina (-1.0 mln tonnes, to 50.0 mln tonnes) due to lower yields as a result of heat and Brazil (-1.0 mln tonnes, to 126.0 mln tonnes) and slow sowing.
The main changes in the world corn trade are related to the decrease in the forecasted corn exports from Brazil (-1.0 million tons, to 46.0 million tons), Ukraine (-1.0 million tons, to 22.0 million tons) and South Africa. External ending stocks of corn for 2024/25 MY were reduced by 3 million tons to 290.3 million tons.
