In its August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine for the 2026/2027 marketing year (July–June) by 1.4 million metric tons compared to the July report—to 25.4 million metric tons, forage grain by 2.31 million metric tons, to 38.59 million metric tons, including corn by 1.8 million metric tons, to 31.8 million metric tons.
At the same time, the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine for this marketing year has been lowered by 1 million metric tons to 13.5 million metric tons, and for feed grains by 1.21 million metric tons to 24.27 million metric tons, including corn, which is down by 1.0 million metric tons to 22.0 million metric tons.
According to estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, nearly all of this difference will be absorbed by carryover stocks for this marketing year: for wheat, the estimate has been increased by 2.27 million metric tons to 4.80 million metric tons; for feed grains, by 3.40 million metric tons to 7.13 million metric tons; and for corn, by 2.80 million metric tons to 4.86 million metric tons.
“Global trade volumes (for wheat) have been reduced by 0.3 million metric tons to 212.7 million metric tons due to a decline in exports from Russia and Ukraine, which was only partially offset by increased exports from Canada and Kazakhstan. Exports from Russia and Ukraine are declining due to logistical disruptions caused by the escalation of the conflict between these two countries in the Azov and Black Seas,” the USDA noted.
At the same time, the forecast for global carryover stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year has been increased by 0.4 million metric tons—to 273.3 million metric tons—as growth in Ukraine and Russia more than offsets declines in Indonesia, Australia, and several other countries.
As for corn, the export forecast for this marketing year has even been increased by 0.6 million metric tons—to 210.48 million metric tons—driven by the United States.
For Russia, the USDA lowered its forecast for wheat exports by 1.5 million metric tons—to 46.0 million metric tons—and for feed grains by 0.4 million metric tons—to 7.58 million metric tons, including corn, which was reduced by 0.2 million metric tons—to 3.8 million metric tons.
As previously reported, in the quarterly report from the USDA office in Kyiv in early August, the forecast for exports from Ukraine in this marketing year was revised downward much more sharply: wheat by 3.7 million metric tons to 10.8 million metric tons, corn by 9 million metric tons to 14 million metric tons, but the forecast for barley was increased by 0.1 million metric tons to 2.5 million metric tons.
As previously reported, starting July 22 of this year, due to an increase in Russian attacks on ports and ships—including the use of missiles—ship calls to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea have been suspended.
“The prolonged blockade of port operations is creating a large-scale financial crisis for the agricultural sector. In the 2026/2027 marketing year, Ukraine is expected to export approximately 64.4 million metric tons of agricultural products. At the same time, due to the prolonged restrictions on seaport operations, exports could be reduced by nearly half—to about 29.6 million metric tons,” the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine noted on August 7.
Recently, Taras Vysotsky, head of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, provided Reuters with another updated estimate for grain exports—38–40 million metric tons instead of the previous estimate of 43 million metric tons.
The “TAS Agro” agricultural holding has completed the harvest of early grain and oilseed crops on a total area of 33,500 hectares, the company’s press service reported.
Winter wheat was harvested from 21,000 hectares with an average yield of 5.8 metric tons per hectare. Winter rapeseed was harvested from 12,500 hectares with an average yield of 3.6 metric tons per hectare.
“This year’s rapeseed harvest was one of the most impressive results of the season. The company used strip-till technology across all its fields, which—combined with precise planning, high-quality crop protection, and the team’s prompt decision-making—enabled us to achieve high yield figures,” the statement noted.
As the company clarified, part of the rapeseed harvest has already been sold in western markets, while another portion will be sent for processing and subsequent export. TAS Agro plans to sell wheat using a flexible model depending on the price ratio between crops and market conditions.
The company has already begun preparations for planting winter rapeseed.
The “TAS Agro” agricultural holding is part of the “TAS” Group, which was founded in 1998. Its business interests span the financial sector (banking and insurance segments) and the pharmaceutical industry, as well as manufacturing, real estate, and venture capital projects.
Serhiy Tihipko is the founder of “TAS” and the beneficial owner of the “TAS Agro” agricultural holding.
Prices for food and feed wheat in Ukraine remained unchanged over the week—$195 and $185 per metric ton, respectively, on a CPT Odessa basis—while the price of corn fell by $5 to $195 per metric ton CPT Odessa, according to brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
The price of sunflower seeds on a CPT mill basis was $550 per metric ton; rapeseed on a CPT port basis fell by $20 to $500 per metric ton, while on an FCA Chop basis it rose by $5 to $545 per metric ton. The price of GMO soybeans fell to $420 per metric ton CPT port and to $435 per metric ton FCA Chop, while non-GMO soybeans on an FCA Chop basis rose by $10 to $470 per metric ton and fell by $10 to $440 per metric ton on a CPT port basis.
“This week, the Ukrainian physical market moved away from a direct correlation with exchange dynamics. The SPIKE CPT Odessa corn index fell to $195 (-$5 for the week), while 11.5% food wheat and feed wheat held steady at $195 and $185, respectively. On the western basis, SPIKE FCA Chop corn adjusted to $220 (-$3), maintaining a premium of about $25 to the port destination,” the report states.
According to Spike Brokers, the price of corn on an FCA Chop basis also fell—by $3, to $220 per metric ton. The sunflower seed price of $550 per metric ton is linked to processors’ transition to new-crop prices.
The port price of rapeseed fell by $20 per metric ton, while at the western border it rose by $5. From August 1–6, Ukraine exported 27.9 thousand metric tons of rapeseed.
During this period, Ukraine exported 33.5 thousand metric tons of corn, 93.2 thousand metric tons of wheat, and 4.2 thousand metric tons of soybeans. Sunflower oil exports totaled 30.7 thousand metric tons.
Over 1.4 million metric tons of grain have already been harvested in Vinnytsia Oblast, according to Natalia Zabolotna, head of the regional military administration.
“The harvest campaign in the region is ongoing. Farmers have already harvested 246,000 hectares of early grain and legume crops—that’s 60% of the planned area. The average yield is 59.6 centners per hectare—1.9 centners per hectare more than during the same period last year,” she wrote on Telegram on Saturday.
According to the Regional State Administration, winter wheat currently accounts for the largest portion of the harvest at 1.2 million metric tons. Its average yield is also higher than last year’s. The harvest of winter barley and peas has already been completed. The harvest of spring barley, spring wheat, and rye is in full swing. At the same time, farmers are finishing the harvest of winter rapeseed. 80% of the area has already been threshed.
As of August 4, Ukrainian farmers had threshed 4.01 million hectares—or 34% of the projected area—and harvested 17.59 million metric tons of grain from the new crop, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
Wheat was harvested from 2,736.5 thousand hectares (53% of the area), yielding 12.51 million metric tons with an average yield of 45.7 centners per hectare.
Barley was harvested from 1,015.0 thousand hectares (68%), yielding 4.42 million metric tons at a yield of 43.5 centners per hectare.
Peas: 261,700 hectares (88%) have been harvested, yielding 669,500 metric tons at a yield of 25.6 centners per hectare.
The Odesa region currently leads in terms of the volume of early grain and legume crops harvested, with 3.593 million metric tons harvested from an area of 857 thousand hectares (wheat—2.108 million metric tons, barley—1.252 million metric tons, peas – 232,5 thousand metric tons).
In the Mykolaiv region, 2.125 million metric tons have been harvested from an area of 606,2 thousand hectares (wheat – 1.440 million metric tons, barley – 577,9 thousand metric tons, peas – 106,8 thousand metric tons).
In the Dnipropetrovsk region, 1.911 million metric tons were harvested from an area of 475,400 hectares (wheat – 1.421 million metric tons, barley – 455,600 metric tons, peas – 34,000 metric tons).
Winter rapeseed has already been harvested from 910,600 hectares (68% of the total area), yielding 2.39 million metric tons.
The agricultural holding KSG Agro has completed the harvest of winter barley, winter wheat, and spring barley on a total area of 4,975 thousand hectares, the company’s press service reported.
According to the report, winter barley was harvested on 562 hectares, winter wheat on 3,700 hectares, and spring barley on 699 hectares.
“Excessive moisture negatively affected the quality of part of the wheat crop; however, thanks to the coordinated efforts of our production teams, we were able to organize the process in such a way as to make the most efficient use of every weather window for harvesting the grain,” the press service quoted Vitaliy Nekhay, head of the crop production division, as saying.
The company reported that 12 Claas Lexion 480 and 560 combine harvesters were used during the harvest, along with up to 30 trucks to transport the crop.
As previously reported, the agricultural holding KSG Agro intends to invest over 25 million UAH in creating an autonomous water supply system for one of its pig farms and plans to fully supply it with water from its own sources by the end of 2026.
KSG Agro is a vertically integrated holding company engaged in pig farming, as well as the production, storage, processing, and sale of grains and oilseeds. The company’s land bank in the Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions totals approximately 21,000 hectares. The agricultural holding is among the top five largest pork producers in Ukraine.
Serhiy Kasyanov remains the ultimate beneficiary of the holding company; through Olbis Investment LTD SA, he owns 47.83% of the shares, while 47.57% of the shares are freely traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
