Wheat prices in Ukraine will continue to rise until at least mid-March due to reduced supplies from the Black Sea region and limited supply from producers, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“Due to logistical constraints, the export volumes of one of Ukraine’s key competitors may fall by almost half. Accordingly, global importers will have to buy about 1–1.5 million tons of wheat from other suppliers, including Ukraine, Romania, and France,” analysts said.
According to experts, there is an imbalance in the domestic market: traders are actively contracting grain, while farmers are holding back sales. This leads to a weekly increase in wheat prices of $1–2 per ton. Weather risks and the threat of winter crop losses due to frost remain an additional factor supporting prices.
Currently, the conditional prices for food wheat (11.5% protein) on a CPT-port basis are $215–220 per ton. At the beginning of March, prices are expected to strengthen to $220–225 per ton.
Further price movements after mid-March will be determined by the condition of winter crops and the overall global market situation, Pusk concluded.
Agroholding Agrotrade exported over 333,000 tons of grains and oilseeds in 2025, according to the company’s press service on Facebook.
According to the report, 187,000 tons were produced in-house, while another 146,000 tons were supplied by third-party producers. The main export destinations remained Turkey, Egypt, Italy, and other countries in the Mediterranean region.
“The 2025 season has once again confirmed that flexibility and reputation are crucial in conditions of increased risk. Despite the difficult security situation, logistical constraints, and downtime, the Agrotrade Group’s export program was carried out without disruption throughout the year. Even when infrastructure comes to a standstill and risks for shipowners increase, our task is to fulfill our commitments. This is what allows us to maintain the trust of our international partners and continue our work,” said Andriy But, director of the agroholding’s foreign economic activity department.
Corn and wheat accounted for the bulk of exports. At the same time, there was a decline in soybean exports due to changes in the regulatory environment and the reorientation of part of the market toward domestic processing.
The agricultural holding also predicts that low export rates from Ukraine in the current season may lead to the formation of significant transitional stocks, which will affect the prices of the future harvest.
The Agrotrade Group of Companies is a vertically integrated holding company covering the entire agro-industrial cycle (production, processing, storage, and trade in agricultural products). It cultivates over 70,000 hectares of land. Its core crops are sunflower, corn, winter wheat, soybeans, and rapeseed. It has its own network of elevators with a one-time storage capacity of 570,000 tons.
The group also produces hybrid seeds of corn, sunflower, barley, and winter wheat. In 2014, a seed plant with a capacity of 20,000 tons of seeds per year was built on the basis of the Kolos seed farm (Kharkiv region).
The founder of Agrotrade is Vsevolod Kozhemyako.
Astarta, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, reduced its sales volume by 27.4% in October-December 2025 compared to the same period in 2025, and its revenue by 19% due to a significant decline in wheat and sugar sales, which was not offset by revenue growth in the corn, sunflower, and soybean oil segments.
According to data published by the holding on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, in October-December 2025, the company sold a total of UAH 5.16 billion worth of its main products, compared to UAH 6.37 billion in the first half of 2024.
In particular, sugar sales in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 20% in physical terms compared to the same period in 2024, to 85,265 thousand tons, while the average selling price decreased by 12%, to UAH 19,537 per ton.
Astarta’s wheat sales in the fourth quarter decreased by 81% to 29,683 thousand tons, and the average price decreased by 15% to UAH 8.58 thousand/ton.
Corn sales in the fourth quarter increased by 46% to 48,886 thousand tons amid a 1% decrease in price to UAH 9,328 per ton.
In addition, Astarta increased sales of sunflower seeds in October-December by 30% to 26,793 thousand tons, while the selling price rose by 18% to UAH 24.82 thousand/ton.
Rapeseed sales for the reporting period decreased by 2% to 17.74 thousand tons, while the cost of production increased by 11% to UAH 23.22 thousand/ton.
Soybean sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 decreased by 97% compared to the same period in 2024 to 23 tons, while the price of the product increased by 44% to UAH 39,126 per ton.
Sales of soybean oil in the fourth quarter increased by 20% to 15.619 thousand tons, and the price of the product also increased by 17% to UAH 48.083 thousand/ton. Sales of soybean meal increased by 42% to 60,875 thousand tons, while prices for it fell by 8% to UAH 15,716 per ton.
The agricultural holding’s milk sales in October-December 2025 increased by 10% to 31,017 thousand tons, while the price of the product decreased by 14% to UAH 19.25 thousand/ton.
Overall, Astarta showed mixed dynamics in October-December: a significant drop in sales of wheat (-81%) and sugar (-20%) was partially offset by an increase in sales of corn (+46%) and soybean products. Despite the overall decline in prices for grains and sugar, the soybean and oil segment showed growth in average sales prices (by 44% and 17%, respectively), which allowed the agricultural holding to balance its cash inflows.
Sales and average selling prices of Astarta’s key products in Q4 2025.
Data: Astarta
Ukraine has significantly reduced its presence in the EU market for soft wheat supplies in the 2025/26 season: its share in EU imports fell to 22.3% from 67.3% a year earlier, according to SPIKE BROKERS.
According to the statistics, soft wheat imports to the EU fell by 52% from 4.43 million tons to 2.15 million tons, while Ukraine’s share fell from 2.98 million tons to 479,000 tons, meaning it lost its leading position among suppliers.
Against this backdrop, Canada increased its share of EU imports to 40% (858,000 tons) compared to 13% a year earlier, while Moldova and Serbia increased their presence to 17.3% and 14.3%, respectively.
SPIKE BROKERS also notes that Ukrainian wheat exports in early January were concentrated mainly in the markets of the Middle East and North Africa, while activity in the EU remains minimal.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) from 14.5 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes or 3.4%) given the increase in domestic consumption from 7.6 million tonnes to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%), the forecast for corn remained unchanged.
The global forecast for wheat for 2025/26 calls for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. (…) Global consumption increased by 0.9 million tonnes to 823.9 million tonnes, mainly due to increased use in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco, according to the USDA’s December report.
The US Department of Agriculture has not changed its estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest to 23 million tonnes, with exports at 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes) and ending stocks at 1.93 million tonnes. At the same time, it is noted that domestic consumption will increase to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%).
USDA analysts left unchanged their forecast for corn harvest in Ukraine in 2025/26 MY — 29 million tonnes, exports — 23 million tonnes, ending stocks — 0.85 million tonnes.
The USDA has increased its forecast for global wheat production in 2025/26 MY to 842.17 million tonnes (+4.36 million tonnes), global exports to 219.76 million tonnes (+1.05 million tonnes), and ending stocks — 278.25 million tonnes (+3.38 million tonnes).
The USDA has raised its forecast for global corn production in 2025/26 MY to 1,296.01 million tonnes (+13 million tonnes), exports to 205.1 million tonnes (+0.01 million tonnes), and ending stocks to 290.91 million tonnes (+11.76 million tonnes).
Alviva Group, owner of Ukraine’s leading bakery products company Kyivkhlib LLC, harvested 5,419 tons of its first winter wheat and sunflower crop in its pilot season for its agricultural division in 2025, the group’s press service reported on Facebook.
It is recalled that in 2024, it began operations in the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, where it has 4,000 hectares of agricultural land.
“5,419 tons is the total volume of the first harvest (winter wheat and sunflower). The total area of land that has been restored and recultivated is 1,300 hectares. 204 hectares have been demined and 760 hectares have been cleared of trees to return the land to economic use,” Alviva Group shared its achievements.
Next season, 2025–2026, the company plans to expand its acreage by 26% to 3,510 hectares through demining and recultivation. In addition, Alviva Group’s agricultural division intends to diversify its crop structure and add rye, corn, and rapeseed to its crop rotation.
Alviva Group is an international group of companies in the food technology and services sector. It produces bakery products under the brands Kyivkhlib, Tarta, Tendi, Norden Brod, British Sandwich, Mr Snex, Naturavo, Honey Moon, and Kyivmlyn.
The group exports to 30 countries around the world. Its land bank covers more than 4,000 hectares in the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions.
