In mid-June, the Ukrainian wheat market was dominated by downward price dynamics, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
“The approaching harvest, low demand from traders awaiting the new harvest, and a downward price trend on the export market put pressure on prices. The supply of grain remained insufficient, while demand from processors was quite high, which continued to support prices,” analysts explained.
Prices for grade 2 wheat were recorded at 10,000-11,300 UAH/t CPT, and for feed wheat at 9,200-10,200 UAH/t CPT, according to APK-Inform.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has improved its forecast for global wheat and corn production in the 2025-2026 marketing year, with no change to its harvest forecast for Ukraine.
According to the forecast on the US agency’s website, the wheat harvest in Ukraine is estimated at 23 million tons, exports at 16.5 million tons, and ending stocks at 1.49 million tons. The corn harvest is expected to reach 30.5 million tons, with exports at 24 million tons and final stocks at 0.6 million tons.
At the same time, global wheat production in 2025/2026 MY will amount to 808.5 million tons (+0.07 million tons compared to last season), exports – 214.33 million tons (+1.34 million tons), and final stocks – 262.76 million tons (-2.97 million tons).
USDA analysts forecast global corn production in 2025/2026 MY at 1,265.98 million tons (+1 million tons compared to the previous season), global exports at 195.81 million tons (+0.01 million tons), and ending stocks at 275.24 million tons (-2.6 million tons).
As of June 9, Ukraine had exported 38.777 million tons of grains and legumes since the beginning of the 2024-2025 marketing year (July-June), of which 475,000 tons were shipped this month, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service. were shipped this month, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of June 12 last year, total shipments amounted to 48.381 million tons, including 1.449 million tons in June.
At the same time, in terms of crops, since the beginning of the current season, 15.015 million tons of wheat (152,000 tons in June), 2.305 million tons of barley (0), 10,800 tons of rye (0), corn – 20.89 million tons (320 thousand tons).
Total exports of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of June 9 are estimated at 66.1 thousand tons (in June – 1.2 thousand tons), including wheat flour – 61.7 thousand tons (1.1 thousand tons).
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published its first forecast for grain exports from Ukraine for the 2025/26 marketing year (MY): it expects wheat exports to grow to 16.5 million tons from 16 million tons in 2024/25 MY and corn exports to grow to 24 million tons from 22 million tons.
According to the forecast on the US agency’s website, this year’s wheat harvest in Ukraine will decrease slightly to 23 million tons from 23.4 million tons last year, while domestic consumption will decline to 6.6 million tons in this MY from 6.7 million tons in the previous MY, with carryover stocks remaining at 1.49 million tons.
As for corn, the USDA expects its harvest to increase to 30.5 million tons from 26.8 million tons last year, as well as an increase in domestic consumption to 6.23 million tons from 5.15 million tons and carryover stocks from 0.31 million tons to 0.6 million tons.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, the total harvest of feed crops this year will amount to 37.04 million tons, compared to 33.47 million tons last year, and their exports in 2025/26 MY will reach 27.58 million tons, up from 24.48 million tons in 2024/25 MY.
Overall, the USDA expects wheat harvests to increase this year to 808.5 million tons from 799.7 million tons last year, and corn harvests to increase to 1,265.0 million tons from 1,221.3 million tons.
As for wheat exports, according to the US Department of Agriculture, in 2025/26 MY, they will increase to 212.99 million tons from 206.12 million tons this MY, and corn exports will increase to 195.81 million tons from 189.35 million tons.
Ukraine has exported 35.093 mln tonnes of grains and pulses since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year (MY, July-June) as of April 30, of which 2.269 mln tonnes were shipped since the beginning of the month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported, citing the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of April 29 last year, the total shipments amounted to 40.711 million tons.
At the same time, since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has exported 13.873 mln tonnes of wheat (15.55 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY), 2.264 mln tonnes of barley (2.181 mln tonnes), 10.8 thsd tonnes of rye (1.2 thsd tonnes) and 18.437 mln tonnes of corn (22.502 mln tonnes).
The total export of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of April 30 is estimated at 58.4 thsd tonnes (86 thsd tonnes in 2023/24 MY), including 54.2 thsd tonnes of wheat (81.3 thsd tonnes).
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which provides updated forecasts for wheat and corn production, consumption, trade, and stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Wheat: global trends
– Production: downwardly revised by 0.3 mln tons to 796.9 mln tons, mainly due to lower production in Saudi Arabia and the EU.
– Consumption: decreased by 1.4 mln tons to 805.2 mln tons, due to reduced food, seed and industrial use in India and China.
– Trade: exports forecast reduced by 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million tons. Exports are expected to decline for Russia (-1.0 million tons to 44.0 million tons), Australia (-0.5 million tons to 25.5 million tons), and the EU (-0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons), partially offset by increased exports from Canada (+0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons) and Ukraine (+0.5 million tons to 16.0 million tons).
– Inventories: global ending stocks increased by 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million tons, down 3% year-on-year and the lowest level since 2015/16 MY.
