In its November report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 1 million metric tons compared to the October estimate—to 11.5 million metric tons— while simultaneously raising its harvest forecast by 500,000 metric tons to 26.5 million metric tons.
According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on November 10, the previous estimate for Ukrainian wheat exports was 12.5 million metric tons, and for production, 26 million metric tons.
Thus, U.S. analysts expect an increase in wheat production in Ukraine but forecast a reduction in its export capacity to foreign markets.
The USDA attributes the revision of the export forecast to restrictions on maritime transport in the Black Sea region resulting from Russia’s war against Ukraine.
According to the agency’s assessment, wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia remain below long-term averages, despite the use of alternative ports and transport routes.
Against the backdrop of reduced export projections and an upward revision of the harvest estimate, the USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat ending stocks at the end of the 2026/27 marketing year from 6.1 million to 7.3 million metric tons.
By comparison, wheat stocks in Ukraine were estimated at only 2 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year.
At the same time, U.S. experts raised their forecast for domestic consumption of Ukrainian wheat from 9.5 million to 9.8 million metric tons, including feed use, which was increased from 4.5 million to 4.8 million metric tons.
Globally, the USDA lowered its forecast for wheat trade in the 2026/27 marketing year by 310,000 metric tons to 208.66 million metric tons.
The reduction in projected exports from Ukraine and Russia is partially offset by increased shipments from Australia and Argentina.
Specifically, the forecast for Russian wheat exports was lowered by 1 million metric tons to 39 million metric tons. At the same time, the forecast for Australia was raised to 24.5 million metric tons, and for Argentina to 16.5 million metric tons.
The USDA raised its forecast for global wheat production to 827.51 million metric tons and for ending stocks to 280.82 million metric tons.
The marketing year for wheat in Ukraine runs from July to June of the following year.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2026, p. 19 (PDF).
Ukrainian farmers have completed the 2026 wheat harvest, yielding 26.26 million metric tons, which is 15.1% higher than the figure for the same date last year, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine reported on November 10.
According to the ministry, wheat was harvested from an area of 5.12 million hectares, compared to 5.05 million hectares as of November 7, 2025. Thus, the harvested area increased by 1.4%, while the gross yield rose by more than 15%.
The main factor behind the increase in production was a rise in average yield to 51.3 centners per hectare, compared to 45.2 centners per hectare a year earlier. The yield increase amounted to 13.4%.
As of the same date in 2025, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 22.82 million metric tons of wheat. Thus, this year’s result exceeds last year’s by 3.44 million metric tons.
The increase in yield, coupled with a slight expansion of planted area, indicates that productivity was the primary driver of the growth in gross harvest.
Wheat remains one of Ukraine’s primary grain crops, forming the raw material base for the flour milling industry, bread production, and grain exports.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the total harvest of grains and legumes in Ukraine as of November 10 stood at 47.03 million metric tons from 9.16 million hectares, or 78.9% of the projected area.
Original source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, November 10, 2026.
In its November report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for grain exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 3 million metric tons: wheat—from 12.5 million metric tons to 11.5 million metric tons; corn—from 22 million metric tons to 20 million metric tons.
According to the report on the agency’s website, the wheat harvest estimate was simultaneously increased from 26 million metric tons to 26.5 million metric tons, and the estimate for other grains was raised from 7.29 million metric tons to 7.69 million metric tons, while the corn estimate remained unchanged at 31.8 million metric tons.
Accordingly, U.S. experts have raised the forecast for wheat carryover stocks at the end of the 2026/27 marketing year from 6.1 million metric tons to 6.3 million metric tons, compared with 2 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year; for corn—from 5.53 million metric tons to 7.53 million metric tons, compared with 2.92 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year—and for other grains—from 3.17 million metric tons to 3.57 million metric tons, compared with 1.78 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year.
For Russia, the estimate for wheat exports was reduced from 40 million metric tons to 39 million metric tons, and for other grains—from 7.18 million metric tons to 7.03 million metric tons.
According to the updated USDA report, the estimate for global wheat trade this marketing year has been lowered by 0.31 million metric tons to 208.66 million metric tons, as the decline in exports from Russia and Ukraine will be largely offset by increased exports from Australia and Argentina.
“The conflict in the Black Sea region continues to result in both countries’ shipment volumes remaining below their long-term averages, despite efforts to use alternative ports and modes of transport,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture noted.
Projected ending global stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year have increased by 4.8 million metric tons and now stand at 280.8 million metric tons, largely driven by increases in Ukraine, Argentina, Russia, and Kazakhstan, the report states.
It also notes that global barley production increased by 1.0 million metric tons to 161.1 million metric tons, primarily reflecting growth in Australia and Ukraine, which is partially offset by a decline in production in Russia.
The estimate for global corn trade volume has been reduced by 1.34 million metric tons to 210.72 million metric tons, as the decline in exports from Ukraine, the United States, and India will be largely offset by an increase in exports from Argentina.
The USDA expects global ending stocks of feed grains to increase by 2.9 million metric tons to 316.2 million metric tons, primarily reflecting higher corn stocks in Ukraine and China.
As for global soybean production, the estimate has been revised downward by 0.2 million metric tons to 442.5 million metric tons, mainly due to lower production in Ukraine, South Africa, the EU, and Mexico. At the same time, the forecast for soybean trade has been revised upward by 0.55 million metric tons—to 192.55 million metric tons—due to increased exports from the United States and Argentina, which will fully offset the decline in exports from Ukraine, Uruguay, and South Africa.
Ukrainian farmers have completed the harvest of the 2026 wheat crop, yielding 26.26 million metric tons, which is 15.1% higher than the figure for the same date last year, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine reported on November 10.
According to the ministry, wheat was harvested from an area of 5.12 million hectares, compared to 5.05 million hectares as of November 7, 2025. Thus, the harvested area increased by 1.4%, while the gross harvest grew by more than 15%.
The main factor behind the increase in production was a rise in average yield to 51.3 ts/ha, compared to 45.2 ts/ha a year earlier. The yield increase amounted to 13.4%.
As of the same date in 2025, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 22.82 million metric tons of wheat. Thus, this year’s result exceeds last year’s by 3.44 million metric tons.
The increase in yield, coupled with a slight expansion of planted area, indicates that productivity was the primary driver of the growth in gross harvest.
Wheat remains one of Ukraine’s primary grain crops, forming the raw material base for the flour milling industry, bread production, and grain exports.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the total harvest of cereals and legumes in Ukraine as of November 10 amounted to 47.03 million metric tons from 9.16 million hectares, or 78.9% of the projected area.
Original source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, November 10, 2026.
Ukrainian farmers have completed the wheat harvest, yielding 26.26 million metric tons of grain from an area of 5.12 million hectares, which is 15.3% higher than the 2025 harvest, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine reported on November 3.
The average wheat yield in 2026 was 51.3 centners per hectare, compared to 45.1 centners per hectare last year, an increase of 13.7%.
At the same time, the area harvested for wheat increased by only 1.4%, or approximately 70,700 hectares. Thus, the main factor behind the increase in gross production was higher yields.
Barley also showed positive growth. Its gross harvest reached 6.60 million metric tons from an area of 1.48 million hectares, which is approximately 22.8% more than the figure at the end of October last year.
The average barley yield increased from 39.7 to 44.5 centners per hectare. At the same time, the area under cultivation expanded by approximately 9.8%.
The pea harvest has also been completed. According to the ministry, 834,100 metric tons were harvested from 302,200 hectares, with an average yield of 27.6 centners per hectare.
Compared to 2025, the gross harvest of peas increased by 26.2%, and the yield increased by approximately 13%.
In total, the harvest of the three main early grain and legume crops—wheat, barley, and peas—amounted to about 33.69 million metric tons.
The increase in yields for these crops is important for securing the domestic food market, supporting the flour milling and animal feed industries, and building Ukraine’s export reserves.
At the same time, wheat remains Ukraine’s largest grain crop in terms of gross volume already harvested in 2026, although the ongoing corn harvest may alter the ratio between crops.
Sources: Ministry of Agrarian Policy, data as of November 3, 2026; official statistics on the 2025 harvest.
According to Experts.news, as of November 4, 2026, Ukrainian farmers had planted 4.448 million hectares with winter grain crops, which is 400,300 hectares, or 8.3%, less than on the same date last year, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine reported.
According to the ministry, 85.4% of the projected area for winter grain crops—totaling approximately 5.21 million hectares—has been planted.
The largest declines were seen in winter wheat and barley plantings. Specifically, 3.953 million hectares—or 87.1% of the forecast—have been sown with wheat and triticale. This is 350.5 thousand hectares, or 8.1%, less than on the same date in 2025.
Winter barley has been planted on 420,500 hectares, which is only 70.8% of the projected area. Compared to last year, its planted area has decreased by 58,200 hectares, or 12.1%.
At the same time, the area planted with winter rye increased by 12.7%, to 74.3 thousand hectares. Farmers have already completed 96.9% of the forecast for this crop.
The pace of grain planting has slowed in recent weeks. During the week of October 28 through November 4, the planted area increased by 234,600 hectares, whereas the previous week saw an increase of 285,300 hectares, and the week before that—536,800 hectares.
Thus, the weekly increase in grain plantings decreased by 17.8%, and compared to the figure from two weeks ago, it has more than halved.
In total, farmers still need to plant about 763,000 hectares of winter grains to meet the forecast, including approximately 588,000 hectares of wheat and triticale and 173,000 hectares of barley.
As of the same date in 2025, Ukrainian farmers had planted 4.848 million hectares of winter grains. At that time, wheat plantings totaled 4.304 million hectares, barley—478,700 hectares, and rye—65,900 hectares.
The current figures reflect the progress of the fall planting campaign for the 2027 harvest. The final area planted with winter grains will depend on the completion of fieldwork, and the future harvest will also depend on how well the crops survive the winter and on spring weather conditions.
Sources: Ministry of Agrarian Policy, operational data on winter crop planting as of November 4, 2026; official planting statistics as of November 4, 2025.
