In its September forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for wheat production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year by 0.6 million metric tons compared to August—to 26 million metric tons—but at the same time lowered its forecast for Ukrainian exports by 1 million metric tons—to 12.5 million metric tons.
According to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, published by the USDA on September 11, 2026, the upward revision of the harvest forecast is due to record-high yields of Ukrainian wheat as the harvest nears completion. In August, the agency had estimated production at 25.4 million metric tons.
The forecast for domestic consumption of Ukrainian wheat has been raised from 9.2 million metric tons to 9.5 million metric tons, including feed consumption—from 4.2 million metric tons to 4.5 million metric tons.
At the same time, the USDA significantly raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending wheat stocks—from 4.8 million metric tons in the August forecast to 6.1 million metric tons in September. Imports are expected to total 0.1 million metric tons.
Thus, despite the improved harvest estimate, the additional production is not translating into a corresponding increase in exports and is largely contributing to a buildup in domestic stocks.
The USDA attributes the downward revision of Ukraine’s export estimate—as well as Russia’s—to slow shipment rates in August and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region due to the ongoing war.
Ukraine remains one of the largest suppliers of wheat to the global market. According to the USDA forecast, global wheat trade in the 2026/27 marketing year will total approximately 211.8 million metric tons.
Source: USDA WASDE-675 report dated September 11, 2026: USDA WASDE September 2026
Global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year will total 822.43 million metric tons, which is 3.13 million metric tons higher than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August forecast, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the September USDA report, one of the main factors behind the revision was an improvement in the crop outlook in Australia. The forecast for the country was raised by 3 million tonnes at once — from 28 million tonnes to 31 million tonnes thanks to favorable weather conditions.
For Canada, the production forecast was increased by 1 million tonnes — to 36 million tonnes, and for Ukraine — by 0.6 million tonnes, to 26 million tonnes. At the same time, the forecast for Kazakhstan was reduced by 1 million tonnes — to 15 million tonnes, and for Russia — by 0.5 million tonnes, to 88 million tonnes.
Despite the increase in production, the forecast for global wheat trade was reduced by approximately 0.9 million tonnes — to 211.77 million tonnes.
USDA cut its estimates for Russia’s exports from 46 million tonnes to 43 million tonnes, Ukraine’s — from 13.5 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes, as well as Kazakhstan’s. The decline is partially offset by increased exports from Australia, Canada and Argentina.
The U.S. agency explained the deterioration in the outlook for Russian and Ukrainian exports by weak August shipments amid the fact that the war in the Black Sea region is complicating logistics.
Global wheat consumption is forecast at 826.75 million tonnes, while ending stocks were increased by approximately 3 million tonnes — to 276.29 million tonnes. The main increase in stocks is expected in Russia, Australia and Ukraine.
Primary source — USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates dated September 11, 2026: WASDE-675, September 2026
The agricultural holdings TAS Agro, IMC, and Eridon do not plan to reduce their winter wheat acreage, while HarvEast intends to decrease grain crops in favor of sunflowers and soybeans, company representatives reported during a survey at the 17th International Conference “Effective Management of Agricultural Companies” (LFM 2026).
Oleg Zapletnyuk, CEO of “TAS Agro,” noted that the company will maintain its wheat acreage, as this crop plays an important role in crop rotation: wheat is the primary preceding crop for rapeseed. According to him, rapeseed currently accounts for the bulk of the company’s revenue and liquidity.
“TAS Agro” has already completed sowing the planned 15,000 hectares of rapeseed and is continuing to sow wheat. At the time of the survey, approximately 35% of the planned acreage had been sown, Zapletnyuk noted.
The IMC agricultural holding also has no intention of reducing its wheat acreage. Its CEO, Oleksandr Verzhikhovsky, reported that the company plans to plant 2,700 hectares of wheat.
Serhiy Krolevets, the owner of “Eridon,” said that due to unfavorable weather conditions, the company has practically abandoned rapeseed planting. The company plans to plant wheat at roughly the same level as last year, although work is currently being carried out in dry soil while awaiting rainfall.
Meanwhile, the HarvEast agricultural holding plans to reduce the acreage planted with wheat and corn in favor of sunflowers and soybeans. CEO Dmytro Skornyakov explained this by the need to ensure the business’s economic stability in the coming season.
“… Oilseeds are currently much more profitable, and we will increase sunflower and soybean acreage while reducing corn and wheat,” he said.
Maria Osyka, Director of Strategic Development at the Agroprosperis agricultural group, announced plans to plant 10,000 hectares of seed wheat and 55,000 hectares of rapeseed.
Global wheat production in 2026 could decline by 3.8% compared to 2025—to 810.7 million metric tons, according to a forecast by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
Based on August data, the FAO raised its forecast for the global wheat harvest by 0.5%, but despite this revision, production may still be 3.8% lower than last year’s figure (798.5 million metric tons), according to the report.
The increase in the August forecast is primarily due to upward revisions in estimates for Canada, Morocco, Russia, and Ukraine. These increases more than offset the downward revisions for the EU and the United Kingdom, where a lack of rainfall and high temperatures led to lower yields.
The FAO’s August forecast for the world’s total grain harvest has been lowered by 3.4 million metric tons—to 2.98 billion metric tons—compared to the July level. “Taking into account the latest adjustments, production in 2026 could be 2% lower than last year’s level, which would mark the most significant annual decline since 2018,” the report states.
The revision of the overall forecast is largely due to a 0.6% downward revision of the corn harvest estimate to 1.309 billion metric tons. This is primarily due to worsening harvest forecasts in the EU, where hot and dry weather conditions in key production regions—particularly in France and Poland—have led to a deterioration in crop conditions and reduced expected yields to below the five-year average, according to FAO experts.
In addition, based on the latest official estimates, production forecasts for India and Paraguay have been revised downward. This decline more than offset the upward revisions for Argentina and Brazil, where the 2026 harvest could turn out to be significantly higher than average levels.
Prices for food and feed wheat in Ukraine remained unchanged over the week—at $185 and $175 per metric ton, respectively, on a CPT Odessa basis, according to brokerage firm Spike Brokers in its weekly market review.
According to the broker, Ukraine exported approximately 612,700 metric tons of wheat in August. The top destinations were Spain (118,200 metric tons), Egypt (116,100 metric tons), and Algeria (78,100 metric tons). These three countries accounted for about 51% of August’s exports.
From September 1–3, Ukraine exported about 116,800 metric tons of wheat, or nearly 39,000 metric tons per day, compared to an average of about 20,000 metric tons per day in August. Destinations included Tunisia, Egypt, Indonesia, and Israel.
The price of corn also remained unchanged over the week: on a CPT Odessa basis, it stood at $185 per metric ton, and on an FCA Chop basis, at $225 per metric ton.
In August, Ukraine exported about 300,000 metric tons of corn. During the first three days of September, corn exports totaled about 69,200 metric tons. The main export destinations were Italy, Turkey, Germany, and the Netherlands.
Disruptions in grain supplies from the Black Sea region and hot weather, which worsened harvest forecasts in a number of countries, led to a 2.2% increase in global grain prices in August compared to July. Prices reached their highest level since May 2024, according to the monthly review by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
According to the report, international prices for all major grain crops rose in August. “This was driven by strong demand resulting from deteriorating harvest prospects in key producing regions due to adverse weather conditions, as well as ongoing uncertainty regarding exports from the Black Sea region,” the report states.
Global wheat prices rose by 2.6% in August compared to July, with a year-over-year increase of 15%. Among the reasons, FAO experts also cite “protracted disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region, downward revisions to production forecasts in some European regions experiencing hot and dry weather, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, which has made export shipments more competitive.”
Corn prices rose by 2.5% compared to July, driven by growing concerns about harvest prospects in some regions of the U.S. Corn Belt and worsening production forecasts in the EU. At the same time, demand from ethanol producers and the animal feed industry remains high.
“Fears regarding food supply following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provided additional support to corn prices,” the review notes.
Global prices for sorghum and barley rose by 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively, in August compared with July, “which generally reflects a more stable situation in the feed grain markets,” the review states.
Rice prices rose by 0.5% in August. “The rise in prices for Indian rice varieties was driven by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, purchases by Asian and African countries, and an expected reduction in supplies,” the report states.
