As of October 28, 2025, Ukrainian farmers had sown 5.349 million hectares of winter crops, which is 72% of the projected area. A year earlier, on October 22, 5.7 million hectares had been sown.
According to data on the website of the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, winter wheat crops increased to 3.858 million hectares (4.1 million hectares) over the week, barley — to 382,200 hectares (486,100 hectares), rye – to 63.2 thousand hectares (66 thousand hectares) .
“The leaders in grain crops are Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad regions. Poltava, Ternopil, and Chernihiv regions have already completed sowing,” the ministry said.
According to its data, as of October 21, rapeseed has been planted on an area of 1.05 million hectares (last year – 1.05 million hectares).
“The largest areas are in Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Khmelnytskyi regions. Currently, farmers in 14 regions have completed the sowing of winter rapeseed,” the report says.
The Ministry of Economy previously published forecast figures for the area sown with winter crops for the 2026 harvest. The ministry expects Ukrainian farmers to reduce the area sown with winter crops by 5.1% to 5.368 million hectares. At the same time, the area under winter wheat will be reduced by 4.4% to 4.778 million hectares, winter barley by 2.7% to 576,100 hectares, and winter rapeseed by 5.5% to 1.114 million hectares. At the same time, winter rye crops will increase by 7.6% to 69.3 thousand hectares.
According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in 2024 Ukraine ranked 9th in the world in wheat production, producing about 23.4 million tons of grain. This information is presented in a new study by Experts Club, based on FAOSTAT statistics and the video “Wheat Production by Country (1991–2024)”.
The top three wheat producers remain traditionally stable:
China — 136 million tons,
India — 113.9 million tons,
Russia — 81.6 million tons.
These three countries account for nearly half of global wheat production and play a crucial role in the world’s agricultural system.
They are followed by:
United States — 53.6 million tons,
France — 35.9 million tons,
Canada — 35.9 million tons,
Australia — 34.1 million tons,
Pakistan — 31.4 million tons,
Ukraine — 23.4 million tons,
Germany — 21.5 million tons.
The second ten producers are opened by Turkey (19 million tons) and Kazakhstan (18.6 million tons), with Italy (6.9 million tons) closing the list.
The Experts Club video analysis demonstrates significant structural changes in global wheat production over the past three decades. The video covers the period from 1991 to 2024. During this time, China and India have almost doubled their production thanks to increased yields and consistent government support for the agricultural sector.
Russia and Ukraine, after a sharp decline in the 1990s, made a remarkable recovery: in the early 1990s, Ukraine produced around 15 million tons, while by 2024 the volume had increased to 23–24 million tons — despite war-related risks and export restrictions.
Kazakhstan, traditionally focused on exports, has maintained its position, supplying grain to Central Asia and parts of China.
Despite military actions and damage to part of its infrastructure, Ukraine remains one of the world’s leading wheat exporters. The main factors behind this are high yields in southern and central regions, improved logistics through Danube ports, and export routes via Romania and Bulgaria.
According to FAO, in 2024 Ukraine exported about 17 million tons of wheat, keeping the country among the three largest global grain suppliers, along with Russia and the United States.
Experts from Experts Club note that growth in production across Asia and CIS countries compensates for declining yields in Europe and North America, which are affected by droughts and climate change. At the same time, Turkey, Iran, and Egypt are strengthening their roles as regional centers of processing and import.
Global markets expect wheat prices to stabilize within the range of 230–250 USD per ton, provided there are no new geopolitical shocks.
“Ukraine’s position in the TOP-10 global wheat producers is a testament to the resilience of its agricultural sector, even during wartime. With the expansion of domestic processing, Ukraine can reach 25–27 million tons of production in the coming years and strengthen its place among the world’s top five exporters.
At the same time, the grain market is becoming increasingly technology-driven: digitalization of agribusiness, precision farming, and climate-resilient wheat varieties will determine leadership in the next decade,” said Maksym Urakin, co-founder of the analytical center Experts Club.
Ukraine remains one of the few countries where the agricultural sector accounts for about 40% of foreign currency earnings. In 2024, wheat ranked second in export volume after corn, and revenues from grain sales exceeded 6 billion USD.
According to Experts Club forecasts, if the pace of infrastructure recovery continues and weather conditions remain favorable, Ukraine’s wheat production may reach 25 million tons in 2025, and exports could exceed 18 million tons.
The study was prepared by the analytical center Experts Club based on data from FAOSTAT, USDA, and IGC.
The video analysis “Wheat Production by Country 1991–2024” is available on the Experts Club Ukraine YouTube channel.
AGRICULTURE, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORT, FAO, GLOBAL PRODUCTION, UKRAINE, WHEAT
Northern Mining and Processing Plant (Northern GOK, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk region), part of the Metinvest Group, will sow rye on 75 hectares of tailings storage facilities as part of a dust suppression and soil fertility restoration program.
According to the company, throughout September, work is continuing on sowing cereal crops on dry areas of the tailings pond at the Northern Mining and Processing Plant’s technical supply and sludge management facility. The measures are being carried out as part of the City Program for Solving Environmental Problems in Kryvbas and Improving the State of the Natural Environment.
It should be noted that Metinvest’s enterprises are making efforts to maintain production and, even during these extremely difficult times, have not abandoned their commitments to addressing environmental issues.
This year, Northern GOK has planned and is already carrying out large-scale work using green technologies that will help prevent the dispersion of dry tailings ponds. Ten tons of seeds and four tons of complex fertilizers will be used to sow the disturbed land. Currently, the cereals sown in the first ten days of September have already sprouted.
“We conducted our first experiment with sowing rye on the tailings pond of Northern GOK in 2021. At that time, we had doubts about whether the crop would take root in areas with highly mineralized tailings. The positive result gave us the confidence to continue this practice in the future. Through experimentation, we also found that winter rye provides the best protection for surfaces. It has time to sprout before the cold weather sets in and form a dense network of roots, which prevents dry tailings from scattering in windy weather,” explained Oleg Bereza, lead dust control engineer at Northern GOK, explaining the essence of the method.
According to the specialist, today the area of the Northern GOK tailings pond is almost 170 hectares. Of these, 75 hectares of dry ponds will be planted with rye. About 60 hectares of the tailings pond are currently involved in increasing the level from +165 meters to +169 meters. Irrigation of this territory is carried out by a contracted construction organization. On more than 35 hectares of maps, uniform silting is carried out and the design water level in the storage pond is maintained. Also, to prevent dust formation, irrigation equipment is operating on the technological roads of the shop according to the schedule.
Northern GOK is part of the Metinvest Group, whose main shareholders are System Capital Management (SCM, Donetsk) (71.24%) and the Smart Holding group of companies (23.76%). The managing company of the Metinvest Group is Metinvest Holding LLC.
dust suppression, Pivdenny GOK, tailings storage facilities, WHEAT
In the first two months of the new marketing year (2025/2026 MY), which began on July 1, Ukraine exported 1.456 million tons of wheat, which is 28% less than in the same period last season (2.026 million tons), according to APK-Inform.
Egypt became the key importer of Ukrainian wheat, almost doubling its purchases to 699,000 tons and becoming the largest buyer.
At the same time, most other traditional importers reduced their volumes:
Supplies also decreased to:
As of early September, Ukraine had harvested 30.4 million tons of grain crops on an area of 7.2 million hectares, which is about 63% of the total crop.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center presented a study of Ukraine’s main trading partners in the first half of 2025, where Egypt ranked first in terms of positive balance among all of Ukraine’s trading partners.
“Egypt is an extremely important and profitable trading partner for the country, along with a number of other Arab states. Partnerships with these countries provide the country with currency and somewhat correct the extremely negative trend of recent years with Ukraine’s constantly growing trade deficit,” emphasized Maxim Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
A decrease in supply on the residential real estate market in Kyiv and stable demand from buyers are maintaining the upward trend in prices for new buildings. By the end of the year, the cost per square meter will increase by 10-15%, the DIM group of companies told the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
“According to analysts at the DIM group of companies and industry observations, if the pace of the second half of the year does not fall below that of the first, the city will receive approximately 12-14 thousand new apartments by the end of the year, which is 15-20% less than last year. At the same time, limited supply amid stable demand will contribute to a further 10-15% increase in prices in the primary market by the end of the year,” the group said in a statement.
According to DIM, in the first half of 2025, the average price of new buildings increased by approximately 14% compared to the same period last year. Thus, , the average cost per square meter in new buildings is currently about $1,000/sq. m in the “economy” segment, $1,300/sq. m in the “comfort” segment, $2,200/sq. m in the ‘business’ segment, and $4,400/sq. m in the “premium” segment.
At the same time, the rate of increase in housing prices on the secondary market in the capital is slower: in the first half of 2025, prices rose by 8-10%, and the average cost per square meter on the secondary market is $2,000/sq. m.
According to Arseniy Nasikovsky, junior partner at DIM, the ability to move into ready-built housing is the main factor in choosing housing on the secondary market. However, a further reduction in the supply of new buildings in the event of a deterioration in the security situation will also shift the focus to secondary market properties.
“The choice between primary and secondary housing in 2025 will depend on the balance between readiness, risk, and the buyer’s financial capabilities. If the buyer values the ‘move in and live’ formula, they will choose secondary housing. New buildings offer a fundamentally different level of comfort, primarily a new level of security, which is very important in wartime, modern layouts, energy efficiency, and the availability of shelters and parking lots,” the expert explained.
According to DIM’s forecast, the restoration of new construction volumes to pre-war levels can be expected no earlier than the end of 2027. Today, there are only 140-145 residential complexes for sale on the capital’s market, which is a quarter less than before the war.
The portfolio of the development company DIM consists of real estate in Kyiv and the region with a total area of over 900,000 square meters. More than 3,600 apartments have been commissioned, and more than 356,000 square meters of residential and commercial space has been built. Six projects with a total area of more than 346,000 square meters are currently under construction.
Analysis, DIM, KYIV, REAL ESTATE, WHEAT
As of September 22, Ukraine had exported nearly 1.7 million tons of wheat, and there is enough product on the market to cover contracts, which is holding back price growth, but the situation may change in October.
This forecast was announced by the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“The indicative price for third-class wheat remains at $212–214 CPT-port. This is due to sufficient product reserves among traders and high supply on the global market, especially from Russia,” its analysts noted.
According to their information, coverage of wheat contracts for November-December will significantly decrease for many market players.
“Contracts for October are already being concluded at a price of $218-220 CPT-port with a potential increase to $223. The main reason is a reduction in stocks and growing uncertainty about the future harvest,” the experts explained.
Climate risks in countries that are major wheat producers will be the leading factor supporting prices.
“In Ukraine, the central and southern regions are suffering from drought, and no significant rainfall is forecast in the near future. Russia is also experiencing a critical moisture deficit, and the pace of sowing is the slowest in the last five years. A similar situation is observed in France, Romania, and Bulgaria, where moisture shortages are threatening winter wheat yields. Given this, there is a threat of a reduction in winter crop areas. Importers, anticipating potential problems with the 2026 harvest, may purchase grain more actively. Therefore, wheat prices may rise significantly in January-March,” Pusk states.
