According to the forecast of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the global wheat production in 2025 will amount to 795 mln tonnes, which is the same as in 2024. The organization recorded mixed trends among the largest producing countries.
In the EU, production is expected to increase to 135.5 million tons (+12% yoy) due to the expansion of crops and improved weather conditions. At the same time, the FAO points to the lack of precipitation in the eastern part of the bloc, which may affect the final yield.
In Russia, wheat production is expected to decline due to low soil moisture and reduced acreage. A similar situation is observed in the US, where drought has affected winter wheat crops, which will lead to a decrease in the overall harvest.
According to FAO, wheat production in Ukraine will be below the five-year average. The main reasons are the ongoing armed conflict and dry weather conditions.
In Canada, wheat acreage is expected to increase due to price incentives, but this will be balanced by lower yields. Production will remain at the level of 2024, but will exceed the five-year average.
FAO predicts that India’s harvest will reach a record level of 115.4 million tons. The growth is due to the expansion of acreage, government subsidies and high market prices.
In the Middle East and North Africa, the harvest is expected to decline amid a lack of precipitation. In Argentina, production is expected to increase due to the expansion of crops. In Australia, a moderate decline in harvest volume is forecast, but the figure will remain above 30 million tons.
According to the FAO, the global grain production in 2024 amounted to 2.849 billion tons, which is 0.3% lower year-on-year. The forecast of grain consumption in 2024/25 marketing year is 2.868 billion tons, including 1.534 billion tons of feed grains (+1.1% yoy) and 795.4 million tons of wheat, which is slightly lower than the previous season.
According to national sources, Serbia plans to keep the wheat harvest within 3 mln tons. It is expected that weather conditions will allow to achieve above-average results. The country will continue to export to Italy, Turkey and other countries in the region.
Earlier, the information and analytical center Experts Club released the analysis of the main wheat producers by countries for the period of 1991-2023 – https://youtube.com/shorts/NMwidrCI6iY?si=hE3BXbdvWOG30Nld
In March, Ukraine exported 1.1 million tons of wheat, which is one of the highest monthly figures of the current season, in April, the volume of supplies may be slightly lower, but still remain at a high level, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
“For April, 850 thousand tons of wheat have already been contracted, and the total monthly exports may reach 1 million tons. Despite the general stagnation of demand in the European market, Ukrainian grain is finding its buyers, particularly in Egypt,” analysts said.
However, according to experts, the situation is less optimistic from the price point of view. The main export destinations for Ukrainian wheat – Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands – remain passive in terms of new purchases, and the reintroduction of duties on Ukrainian grain to the EU in June may further complicate access to the European market.
“There is no positive news for the wheat price so far. The stock market has been sinking in recent weeks, and we see a serious gap between the physical market and stock exchange quotes. While the FOB price in Ukraine is currently $60 per ton higher than in Chicago, by June-July the markets usually synchronize. This means that the Ukrainian physical price may sink, especially as the new harvest approaches,” Pusk commented.
According to analysts, the conditional average price for wheat of the 2nd class of the new harvest for July is forecasted at $190-200 per ton on a CPT-port basis, while currently this figure is fixed at $210-215. The potential decline could be up to $20 per ton.
“If you have the opportunity, you should not rush to sell. Historically, in July-August, the market is saturated with wheat from all major exporting countries – Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and the US – and even with a deficit balance, the price usually falls. At the same time, the seasonal model shows that from October to December, the price may rise to $220-235 per ton on a CPT-port basis. Therefore, if the financial cushion allows, it is worth considering postponing sales,” the analysts added.
They stated that flour mills are currently offering the best prices on the domestic market – 10500-11000 UAH/ton for 2-3 grade wheat.
“Given the sluggish export demand, this may be a more profitable solution for farmers,” Pusk believes.
In July-January of 2024-2025 marketing year (MY), Ukraine exported 40.4 thsd tonnes of wheat flour, down 36.1% year-on-year, reports the Association of Millers, citing the State Customs Service.
According to the infographics published in Facebook, the export volumes in the season-24/25 are slightly lower than in the previous seasons – for 7 months of 2023/24 MY Ukraine exported 63.2 thsd tonnes of wheat flour, and in 2022/23 MY – 79.8 thsd tonnes.
At the same time, about 17.0 thsd tonnes were exported to the EU countries, almost 12.4 thsd tonnes – to Moldova, 8.1 thsd tonnes – to Palestine, 1.5 thsd tonnes – to Israel.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has adjusted its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY, July 2024-June 2025) and lowered it by 0.5 million tons to 15.5 million tons, and corn by 1 million tons to 22 million tons.
The updated USDA forecast for February indicates that in 2024/25 MY wheat and corn production in Ukraine will remain at 22.9 mln tonnes and 26.5 mln tonnes, respectively.
At the same time, a slight increase in wheat production and consumption is expected, however, according to USDA, trade volumes and ending stocks will be lower. Accordingly, the forecast for global wheat production was increased by 0.6 million tons to 793.8 million tons, due to increased production in Kazakhstan (+0.6 million tons, to 18.6 million tons) and Argentina (+0.2 million tons, to 17.7 million tons).
Global wheat consumption will also increase by 1.8 mln tonnes to 803.7 mln tonnes due to higher use of feed grains and transitional residues in the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine.
At the same time, the global wheat trade will decrease by 3 million tons to 209 million tons due to the decline in exports by the EU (-1.0 million tons, to 28.0 million tons), Mexico, Russia (-0.5 million tons, to 45.5 million tons), Turkey and Ukraine (-0.5 million tons, to 15.5 million tons). The largest reduction is expected in China – by 2.5 million tons, to 8.0 million tons, which will be the lowest imports in the last five years, although last year this country was the world’s leading supplier of wheat.
The same picture is expected for the world ending stocks in 2024/25 MY, which, according to the updated forecast, will decrease by 1.3 mln tonnes to 257.6 mln tonnes, due to the reduction in China, partially offset by the increase in stocks in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
In 2024/25 MY, the global corn market is expected to decline in all indicators. The global corn production is expected to decline by 1.9 mln tonnes to 1 bln 212.5 mln tonnes, mainly due to Argentina (-1.0 mln tonnes, to 50.0 mln tonnes) due to lower yields as a result of heat and Brazil (-1.0 mln tonnes, to 126.0 mln tonnes) and slow sowing.
The main changes in the world corn trade are related to the decrease in the forecasted corn exports from Brazil (-1.0 million tons, to 46.0 million tons), Ukraine (-1.0 million tons, to 22.0 million tons) and South Africa. External ending stocks of corn for 2024/25 MY were reduced by 3 million tons to 290.3 million tons.
Ukraine exported 8.96 mln tonnes of wheat in July-November of 2024/25 marketing year (MY July-2024 – June 2025), which is significantly higher than last year’s pace, when 5.8 mln tonnes were exported in the same five months of the season, but it is lower than the pre-war dynamics, UkrAgroConsult news agency reported.
“Nevertheless, in the first five months of the season-2024/25, 55% of the maximum wheat exports approved in August under the memorandum between the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food and specialized organizations of the Ukrainian grain market have already been realized,” the analysts said.
According to them, the top five importers of Ukrainian wheat are three countries of Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand.
It is noted that the share of remote markets has increased significantly due to the stable operation of the sea corridor, but Spain remains the main destination. Among the interesting destinations is Algeria, which has already imported more than half a million tons of Ukrainian wheat this season. At the same time, the poor harvest in France prompted local importers to switch to Black Sea grain, UkrAgroConsult explains the trends.
On the European market, prices for wheat and corn fell on Monday and Tuesday, while prices for rapeseed and soybeans may remain lower due to the escalation of hostilities in Ukraine last week, German publication Agrarheute.com reported.
Analysts say that the wheat market, which was supported by the escalation of the situation in Ukraine for most of last week, is under pressure due to the lack of new elements, the publication writes.
German experts attribute the decline in wheat and corn prices to the fall of the euro against the dollar: last Friday, its rate was recorded at $1.0333, a two-year low.
“The fall in the euro actually supports European wheat exports (and wheat prices) and slows down high imports of corn and rapeseed,” the resource noted.
Meanwhile, according to most analysts, the dominance of Black Sea wheat remains a factor that puts pressure on the European market, especially given the recent drop in Russian wheat prices. At the same time, wheat from the southern hemisphere is becoming increasingly important on the market.
Agrarheute referred to the data of the European Commission, according to which the European Union has already imported 3.5 mln tonnes of soft wheat since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year as of November 17, of which 2.5 mln tonnes, or approximately 70%, came from Ukraine, and the rest – from Canada, Moldova, the USA and Serbia. The main recipients were Spain (almost 2 million tons) and Italy (530 thousand tons).
“Starting December 1, Ukraine will introduce a system of minimum export prices for agricultural products, including wheat, corn and barley. Minimum prices will be calculated by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy on a monthly basis, and exports below these prices will be prohibited,” the publication noted.
Experts emphasized the difficulty of forecasting the situation on the global agricultural market due to the introduction of the mechanism of setting minimum export prices for agricultural products by Ukraine and its impact on the structure of the harvest and Ukrainian exports.
“We are quickly approaching the holiday season, which means there is less fundamental data to trade on the grain markets than we usually get in the rest of the year,” the publication quoted Kaden Sweeney, hedge strategist and market analyst at AgMarket.net, as saying.
Since the December USDA report is always similar to the November report, we probably won’t have any new supply and demand data until January 10, Agrarheute concluded.
