The increase in yields was the main factor behind the rise in the gross harvest of major agricultural crops in Ukraine in 2026.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the average yield of grains and legumes as of October 13 reached 49.1 centners per hectare, compared to 43.5 centners per hectare a year earlier.
The most notable positive trends among major crops were observed in sunflowers, wheat, rapeseed, and barley.
Sunflower yields rose by 17.7%—to 21.6 centners per hectare, compared to 18.4 centners per hectare a year earlier. While the harvested area decreased by 12.1%, the gross harvest still increased by 3.4%—to 7.44 million metric tons.
Wheat yields rose by 13.2% to 51.1 ts/ha, which led to a 14.8% increase in the gross harvest to 26.15 million metric tons.
As for rapeseed, the yield rose by 12.4%—to 29.2 centners per hectare—and the gross harvest increased by 17.1%, to 3.88 million metric tons.
Barley yielded an average of 44.3 centners per hectare, compared to 39.7 centners per hectare last year, meaning the yield increased by 11.8%. The gross harvest increased by 22.3% to 6.55 million metric tons.
Peas also showed positive trends: the yield increased by 12.3%, and the gross harvest by 25.1%.
The situation is different for soybeans and sugar beets. Soybean yields fell by 4.5% to 21.9 centners per hectare, while sugar beet yields also declined by approximately 4.5% to about 500 centners per hectare.
Thus, in 2026, the growth in gross yield for a number of key crops will be driven primarily not by an expansion of cultivated areas, but by increased production efficiency per hectare.
Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.
As of September 23, Ukrainian farmers had planted 741,400 hectares with winter grains, or 14.2% of the projected area, and 958,800 hectares with winter rapeseed, or 86.7% of the projection, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
Specifically, 662,400 hectares (14.6% of the forecast) have been planted with wheat and triticale (a hybrid of wheat and rye – IF-U), 53,100 hectares (8.9%) with barley, and 25,800 hectares (33.6%) with rye.
The largest areas of winter grains have been planted in the Mykolaiv region—101,000 hectares, including 79,000 hectares of wheat and triticale and 22,000 hectares of barley.
In the Poltava region, 91.3 thousand hectares have been planted, of which 87.3 thousand hectares are wheat and triticale, and 4 thousand hectares are rye.
In the Dnipropetrovsk region, 86,300 hectares have been planted with winter grains, including 84,000 hectares of wheat and triticale, 2,100 hectares of barley, and 200 hectares of rye.
As of September 21, Ukraine had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July 2026 – June 2027), had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes as of September 21, which is 22% less than the 5.979 million metric tons recorded as of September 24, 2025, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
At the same time, corn exports rose by 103.4%—to 1.841 million metric tons, compared to 905,000 metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
Wheat exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 2.337 million metric tons, a 43.9% decrease compared to 4.168 million metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Barley exports totaled 420,000 metric tons, down 46.9% from last year’s figure of 791,000 metric tons.
Wheat flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 6,800 metric tons, down 48.9% from 13,300 metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Exports of other types of flour remained at 0.6 thousand metric tons. Overall, flour exports fell by 46.8%—to 7.4 thousand metric tons, compared to 13.9 thousand metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
The situation on the Ukrainian wheat market remains largely unchanged due to complicated and expensive logistics, while the corn market is suffering from slow export growth and anticipates a seasonal increase in supply, consulting firm Barva Invest reported on its Telegram channel.
The price of Ukrainian 11.5% wheat on DAP-Danube terms stood at $172–178 per metric ton on September 21.
“The situation on the Ukrainian wheat market remains largely unchanged—exports remain costly and complicated due to Russia’s ongoing attacks on port infrastructure, and the logistics situation is unlikely to improve in the near future,” Barva Invest noted.
According to the company, the most active export routes for Ukrainian wheat remain the Romanian port of Constanta and the Vadul Siret border crossing. At the same time, exports through Ukrainian Danube ports remain extremely difficult due to constant attacks by Russia.
On the Ukrainian corn market, the DAP-Danube price on September 21 stood at $170 per metric ton.
“The Ukrainian corn market continues to suffer from a lack of its usual export pace, while at the same time anticipating a seasonal increase in supply. Logistics are expensive and complicated, which does not facilitate the conclusion of new deals,” Barva Invest noted.
In its September forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for wheat production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year by 0.6 million metric tons compared to August—to 26 million metric tons—but at the same time lowered its forecast for Ukrainian exports by 1 million metric tons—to 12.5 million metric tons.
According to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, published by the USDA on September 11, 2026, the upward revision of the harvest forecast is due to record-high yields of Ukrainian wheat as the harvest nears completion. In August, the agency had estimated production at 25.4 million metric tons.
The forecast for domestic consumption of Ukrainian wheat has been raised from 9.2 million metric tons to 9.5 million metric tons, including feed consumption—from 4.2 million metric tons to 4.5 million metric tons.
At the same time, the USDA significantly raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending wheat stocks—from 4.8 million metric tons in the August forecast to 6.1 million metric tons in September. Imports are expected to total 0.1 million metric tons.
Thus, despite the improved harvest estimate, the additional production is not translating into a corresponding increase in exports and is largely contributing to a buildup in domestic stocks.
The USDA attributes the downward revision of Ukraine’s export estimate—as well as Russia’s—to slow shipment rates in August and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region due to the ongoing war.
Ukraine remains one of the largest suppliers of wheat to the global market. According to the USDA forecast, global wheat trade in the 2026/27 marketing year will total approximately 211.8 million metric tons.
Source: USDA WASDE-675 report dated September 11, 2026: USDA WASDE September 2026
Global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year will total 822.43 million metric tons, which is 3.13 million metric tons higher than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August forecast, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the September USDA report, one of the main factors behind the revision was an improvement in the crop outlook in Australia. The forecast for the country was raised by 3 million tonnes at once — from 28 million tonnes to 31 million tonnes thanks to favorable weather conditions.
For Canada, the production forecast was increased by 1 million tonnes — to 36 million tonnes, and for Ukraine — by 0.6 million tonnes, to 26 million tonnes. At the same time, the forecast for Kazakhstan was reduced by 1 million tonnes — to 15 million tonnes, and for Russia — by 0.5 million tonnes, to 88 million tonnes.
Despite the increase in production, the forecast for global wheat trade was reduced by approximately 0.9 million tonnes — to 211.77 million tonnes.
USDA cut its estimates for Russia’s exports from 46 million tonnes to 43 million tonnes, Ukraine’s — from 13.5 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes, as well as Kazakhstan’s. The decline is partially offset by increased exports from Australia, Canada and Argentina.
The U.S. agency explained the deterioration in the outlook for Russian and Ukrainian exports by weak August shipments amid the fact that the war in the Black Sea region is complicating logistics.
Global wheat consumption is forecast at 826.75 million tonnes, while ending stocks were increased by approximately 3 million tonnes — to 276.29 million tonnes. The main increase in stocks is expected in Russia, Australia and Ukraine.
Primary source — USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates dated September 11, 2026: WASDE-675, September 2026
