A prolonged blockade of the Black Sea could lead to a significant reduction in grain plantings during the 2026/27 marketing year (MY), primarily corn and wheat, farmers may partially shift to oilseeds, which are more profitable under these conditions, said Taras Vysotsky, Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food.
“Our assessment is that the area planted with grains—primarily corn and wheat—will decrease, while the area planted with oilseeds—primarily soybeans and sunflowers—will increase,” he told reporters in Kyiv on Thursday, according to an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent.
“The largest reduction in acreage—as it looks today—will be for corn: we do not rule out that this reduction could even be by half,” the minister added.
Regarding wheat, he noted that a survey of farmers showed that the potential reduction in wheat acreage is 15–17%.
“From our perspective, this will reflect reality. If we had 5.1 million hectares of planted area in the 2025/26 marketing year—which included both winter and spring crops, with winter crops accounting for 5 million hectares—then we estimate that planted area in the 2026/27 marketing year will be 4–4.2 million hectares, a 17% decrease,” Vysotsky noted.
According to him, the area planted with barley will be 1.5 million hectares, and that planted with rapeseed will be 1.3 million hectares, of which 0.2 million hectares will be spring crops, which corresponds to the previous year’s figures.
The minister noted that, on average, 20 million hectares in Ukraine are planted with the six main grain and oilseed crops (wheat, barley, corn, sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans).
According to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of October 20, farmers had planted 3.93 million hectares with winter grain crops, or 75.4% of the projected area; over the past week, the planted area increased by 0.56 million hectares, whereas on the same date last year, the figure was 4.84 million hectares, or 74% of the forecast.
This year, 3.51 million hectares have already been planted with wheat (77.4% of the projected area), 0.34 million hectares with winter barley (57.9%), and 70,700 hectares with rye (92.1%). A year ago, these figures were 3.44 million hectares, 0.3 million hectares, and 60,000 hectares, respectively.
Winter rapeseed plantings in the 2026/27 marketing year exceeded the forecast: the area planted is 1.12 million hectares, or 101.4% of the planned volume, while last year 1.03 million hectares were planted.
The increase in yields was the main factor behind the rise in the gross harvest of major agricultural crops in Ukraine in 2026.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the average yield of grains and legumes as of October 13 reached 49.1 centners per hectare, compared to 43.5 centners per hectare a year earlier.
The most notable positive trends among major crops were observed in sunflowers, wheat, rapeseed, and barley.
Sunflower yields rose by 17.7%—to 21.6 centners per hectare, compared to 18.4 centners per hectare a year earlier. While the harvested area decreased by 12.1%, the gross harvest still increased by 3.4%—to 7.44 million metric tons.
Wheat yields rose by 13.2% to 51.1 ts/ha, which led to a 14.8% increase in the gross harvest to 26.15 million metric tons.
As for rapeseed, the yield rose by 12.4%—to 29.2 centners per hectare—and the gross harvest increased by 17.1%, to 3.88 million metric tons.
Barley yielded an average of 44.3 centners per hectare, compared to 39.7 centners per hectare last year, meaning the yield increased by 11.8%. The gross harvest increased by 22.3% to 6.55 million metric tons.
Peas also showed positive trends: the yield increased by 12.3%, and the gross harvest by 25.1%.
The situation is different for soybeans and sugar beets. Soybean yields fell by 4.5% to 21.9 centners per hectare, while sugar beet yields also declined by approximately 4.5% to about 500 centners per hectare.
Thus, in 2026, the growth in gross yield for a number of key crops will be driven primarily not by an expansion of cultivated areas, but by increased production efficiency per hectare.
Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.
As of September 23, Ukrainian farmers had planted 741,400 hectares with winter grains, or 14.2% of the projected area, and 958,800 hectares with winter rapeseed, or 86.7% of the projection, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
Specifically, 662,400 hectares (14.6% of the forecast) have been planted with wheat and triticale (a hybrid of wheat and rye – IF-U), 53,100 hectares (8.9%) with barley, and 25,800 hectares (33.6%) with rye.
The largest areas of winter grains have been planted in the Mykolaiv region—101,000 hectares, including 79,000 hectares of wheat and triticale and 22,000 hectares of barley.
In the Poltava region, 91.3 thousand hectares have been planted, of which 87.3 thousand hectares are wheat and triticale, and 4 thousand hectares are rye.
In the Dnipropetrovsk region, 86,300 hectares have been planted with winter grains, including 84,000 hectares of wheat and triticale, 2,100 hectares of barley, and 200 hectares of rye.
As of September 21, Ukraine had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July 2026 – June 2027), had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes as of September 21, which is 22% less than the 5.979 million metric tons recorded as of September 24, 2025, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
At the same time, corn exports rose by 103.4%—to 1.841 million metric tons, compared to 905,000 metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
Wheat exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 2.337 million metric tons, a 43.9% decrease compared to 4.168 million metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Barley exports totaled 420,000 metric tons, down 46.9% from last year’s figure of 791,000 metric tons.
Wheat flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 6,800 metric tons, down 48.9% from 13,300 metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Exports of other types of flour remained at 0.6 thousand metric tons. Overall, flour exports fell by 46.8%—to 7.4 thousand metric tons, compared to 13.9 thousand metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
The situation on the Ukrainian wheat market remains largely unchanged due to complicated and expensive logistics, while the corn market is suffering from slow export growth and anticipates a seasonal increase in supply, consulting firm Barva Invest reported on its Telegram channel.
The price of Ukrainian 11.5% wheat on DAP-Danube terms stood at $172–178 per metric ton on September 21.
“The situation on the Ukrainian wheat market remains largely unchanged—exports remain costly and complicated due to Russia’s ongoing attacks on port infrastructure, and the logistics situation is unlikely to improve in the near future,” Barva Invest noted.
According to the company, the most active export routes for Ukrainian wheat remain the Romanian port of Constanta and the Vadul Siret border crossing. At the same time, exports through Ukrainian Danube ports remain extremely difficult due to constant attacks by Russia.
On the Ukrainian corn market, the DAP-Danube price on September 21 stood at $170 per metric ton.
“The Ukrainian corn market continues to suffer from a lack of its usual export pace, while at the same time anticipating a seasonal increase in supply. Logistics are expensive and complicated, which does not facilitate the conclusion of new deals,” Barva Invest noted.
In its September forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for wheat production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year by 0.6 million metric tons compared to August—to 26 million metric tons—but at the same time lowered its forecast for Ukrainian exports by 1 million metric tons—to 12.5 million metric tons.
According to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, published by the USDA on September 11, 2026, the upward revision of the harvest forecast is due to record-high yields of Ukrainian wheat as the harvest nears completion. In August, the agency had estimated production at 25.4 million metric tons.
The forecast for domestic consumption of Ukrainian wheat has been raised from 9.2 million metric tons to 9.5 million metric tons, including feed consumption—from 4.2 million metric tons to 4.5 million metric tons.
At the same time, the USDA significantly raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending wheat stocks—from 4.8 million metric tons in the August forecast to 6.1 million metric tons in September. Imports are expected to total 0.1 million metric tons.
Thus, despite the improved harvest estimate, the additional production is not translating into a corresponding increase in exports and is largely contributing to a buildup in domestic stocks.
The USDA attributes the downward revision of Ukraine’s export estimate—as well as Russia’s—to slow shipment rates in August and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region due to the ongoing war.
Ukraine remains one of the largest suppliers of wheat to the global market. According to the USDA forecast, global wheat trade in the 2026/27 marketing year will total approximately 211.8 million metric tons.
Source: USDA WASDE-675 report dated September 11, 2026: USDA WASDE September 2026
