Ukraine has significantly reduced its presence in the EU market for soft wheat supplies in the 2025/26 season: its share in EU imports fell to 22.3% from 67.3% a year earlier, according to SPIKE BROKERS.
According to the statistics, soft wheat imports to the EU fell by 52% from 4.43 million tons to 2.15 million tons, while Ukraine’s share fell from 2.98 million tons to 479,000 tons, meaning it lost its leading position among suppliers.
Against this backdrop, Canada increased its share of EU imports to 40% (858,000 tons) compared to 13% a year earlier, while Moldova and Serbia increased their presence to 17.3% and 14.3%, respectively.
SPIKE BROKERS also notes that Ukrainian wheat exports in early January were concentrated mainly in the markets of the Middle East and North Africa, while activity in the EU remains minimal.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) from 14.5 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes or 3.4%) given the increase in domestic consumption from 7.6 million tonnes to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%), the forecast for corn remained unchanged.
The global forecast for wheat for 2025/26 calls for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. (…) Global consumption increased by 0.9 million tonnes to 823.9 million tonnes, mainly due to increased use in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco, according to the USDA’s December report.
The US Department of Agriculture has not changed its estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest to 23 million tonnes, with exports at 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes) and ending stocks at 1.93 million tonnes. At the same time, it is noted that domestic consumption will increase to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%).
USDA analysts left unchanged their forecast for corn harvest in Ukraine in 2025/26 MY — 29 million tonnes, exports — 23 million tonnes, ending stocks — 0.85 million tonnes.
The USDA has increased its forecast for global wheat production in 2025/26 MY to 842.17 million tonnes (+4.36 million tonnes), global exports to 219.76 million tonnes (+1.05 million tonnes), and ending stocks — 278.25 million tonnes (+3.38 million tonnes).
The USDA has raised its forecast for global corn production in 2025/26 MY to 1,296.01 million tonnes (+13 million tonnes), exports to 205.1 million tonnes (+0.01 million tonnes), and ending stocks to 290.91 million tonnes (+11.76 million tonnes).
Alviva Group, owner of Ukraine’s leading bakery products company Kyivkhlib LLC, harvested 5,419 tons of its first winter wheat and sunflower crop in its pilot season for its agricultural division in 2025, the group’s press service reported on Facebook.
It is recalled that in 2024, it began operations in the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, where it has 4,000 hectares of agricultural land.
“5,419 tons is the total volume of the first harvest (winter wheat and sunflower). The total area of land that has been restored and recultivated is 1,300 hectares. 204 hectares have been demined and 760 hectares have been cleared of trees to return the land to economic use,” Alviva Group shared its achievements.
Next season, 2025–2026, the company plans to expand its acreage by 26% to 3,510 hectares through demining and recultivation. In addition, Alviva Group’s agricultural division intends to diversify its crop structure and add rye, corn, and rapeseed to its crop rotation.
Alviva Group is an international group of companies in the food technology and services sector. It produces bakery products under the brands Kyivkhlib, Tarta, Tendi, Norden Brod, British Sandwich, Mr Snex, Naturavo, Honey Moon, and Kyivmlyn.
The group exports to 30 countries around the world. Its land bank covers more than 4,000 hectares in the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions.
Export prices for food and feed wheat began to decline in December 2025, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
“Demand for food wheat remained low throughout the reporting period, while the first half of December was characterized by good purchasing activity in the feed wheat sector, followed by a decline at the end of the month. This was due to military threats, a reduction in ship calls at ports, and systematic strikes on energy infrastructure, leading to emergency and rolling blackouts,” analysts said.
Experts noted that these factors complicated the work of Ukrainian ports and land logistics, caused interruptions and forced stoppages, and forced market participants to adjust all elements of the supply chain. In addition, weather conditions deteriorated at the end of December, which also affected shipments from ports.
This situation, combined with a seasonal decline in trading activity and high competition in foreign markets, according to analysts, put pressure on exporters’ purchase prices.
Thus, in the ports of Greater Odessa during the reporting period, purchase prices for food wheat of grades 2 and 3 fell by $6-9 USD/t and as of December 29 are reported to be in the range of $208-216 and $206-214 per ton (CPT-port). At the same time, the decline in demand prices for feed wheat averaged $9 per ton and is recorded in the range of $197-207 per ton (CPT port) compared to the beginning of this month, according to APK-Inform.
The crop division of the Alebor Group grain trading company has completed the 2025 production season, the company’s press service reported on Facebook.
According to the report, the company’s specialists grew and harvested wheat from 2,000 hectares with a yield of over 7 tons/hectare, corn from 1,100 hectares with a yield of 14.5 tons/hectare, rapeseed from 1,500 hectares with a yield of 3.6 tons per hectare, and sunflower from 1,800 hectares with a yield of 3.85 tons per hectare.
Alebor Group is a trading company founded in 2006 in the Cherkasy region. Its structure includes the Khristinivskoye Grain Receiving Enterprise (with a storage capacity of 74,000 tons of grain), the Voronovitske Grain Receiving Enterprise (104,000 tons of grain), Chesne Grain Receiving Enterprise (27,500 tons of grain), transport companies Boleko and Avtoera with a fleet of 210 heavy-duty grain trucks, and construction company Alebor Real Estate.
According to information on the company’s website, Alebor Group is one of the top 20 grain trading companies in Ukraine, exporting about 2 million tons of grain annually. The group has its own land bank of 6,500 hectares. The company’s founder is Oleksiy Kustov.
KMZ Industries is the largest manufacturer of elevator equipment in Ukraine and produces a full range of products, including silos, grain dryers, transport equipment, and separators, as well as providing automation and installation services.
According to the company, it has built more than 5,000 facilities. KMZ Industries silos with a total volume of more than 12.5 million cubic meters are in operation.
In its December report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its forecast for global wheat exports in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) by 1.5 million tons to 218.71 million tons.
At the same time, the USDA raised its estimate of global wheat carryover stocks at the end of the season by 3.44 million tons to 274.87 million tons, indicating some easing of tensions in the global market.
With regard to Ukraine, the agency maintained its estimate of the wheat harvest at 23 million tons, but reduced its export forecast from 15 million tons to 14.5 million tons due to an increase in domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 7.6 million tons. This means that most of Ukraine’s wheat will be directed to the domestic market, while other supplier countries will provide the growth in global exports.
