In its April report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025–2026 marketing year (MY) to 12.5 million tons from 13.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million tons (7.4%). Meanwhile, the estimate for Ukraine’s wheat harvest remains unchanged at 24.0 million tons, while the forecast for ending stocks has been raised to 3.93 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons.
Globally, the USDA raised its forecast for wheat production in the 2025–2026 MY to 844.15 million tons, while the estimate for global exports was lowered to 221.88 million tons, and ending stocks could rise to 283.12 million tons. Among major exporters, the agency raised its harvest estimate for the EU to 145.11 million tons and for Russia to 90.3 million tons, while increasing its forecast for Russian exports to 44.5 million tons.
The global wheat market has entered the spring season with increased volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fierce competition among key exporters, according to the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
Analysts noted that the Black Sea region remains the main benchmark for global prices, and Ukrainian wheat quotations at ports on CPT terms are currently in the range of $215–222 per ton. Demand from major importers in North Africa and the Middle East remains strong, as evidenced by buyers’ willingness to operate at current price levels even during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
At the same time, in EU countries, large carryover grain stocks and weaker export rates continue to put pressure on domestic prices. Against this backdrop, logistics costs and energy prices are playing an increasingly significant role in shaping the global market, as they directly determine suppliers’ competitiveness and the overall economics of production.
Among the key trends of the season, UkrAgroConsult highlighted the formation of a new structure of global trade under the influence of geopolitical factors. Analysts predict that increased investor interest in commodity assets and changes in traditional logistics routes will be decisive for price dynamics in the short term.
Over the first eight months of the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine exported 9.03 million tons of wheat, with Egypt (2.36 million tons) and Algeria (1.6 million tons) becoming the largest buyers. Indonesia ranked third with 1.4 million tons, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) reported.
Among the top ten buyers of Ukrainian wheat, the UGA also names Yemen with 758 thousand tons, Vietnam with 531 thousand tons, Lebanon with 322 thousand tons, Spain with 304 thousand tons, Tunisia with 284 thousand tons, Italy with 197 thousand tons, and Thailand with 177 thousand tons. This supply structure shows that the main export destinations for Ukrainian wheat remain the countries of the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
As of early March, customs statistics had already recorded exports of about 9.1 million tons of wheat and 22.3 million tons of grains and legumes in total since the start of the season. This is 25% less than on the same date of the previous marketing year. For comparison, in the 2024/25 MY, Ukraine exported 15.7 million tons of wheat and 40.6 million tons of grains and legumes overall.
At the same time, the Ukrainian government stated in November that it did not plan to restrict wheat exports during the current season. According to Deputy Minister of Economy Taras Vysotskyi, the 2025 wheat harvest will amount to about 23 million tons, while exports in the 2025/26 MY may reach approximately 17 million tons. This means that, based on the results of the first eight months, Ukraine has already shipped more than half of the expected seasonal volume.
The growing role of Egypt and Algeria became noticeable as early as the first half of the season. According to Elevatorist, citing APK-Inform analysts, from July to November Egypt increased its purchases of Ukrainian wheat to 2 million tons compared with 664 thousand tons a year earlier, while Algeria increased them to 932 thousand tons compared with 526 thousand tons. Indonesia, during the same period, on the contrary, slightly reduced its imports of Ukrainian wheat to 1.41 million tons.
In the opinion of the Experts Club analytical center, the change in export geography appears to be structural. Back in the summer, the Ukrainian authorities directly pointed out that after the EU restrictions on imports of Ukrainian wheat, part of the volume would have to be redirected to the markets of North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. At the beginning of January, exports of Ukrainian wheat were already clearly concentrated in the MENA direction: during the first eight days of the month, shipments were focused primarily on Algeria, Egypt, and Yemen, while EU activity was minimal.
For Ukraine, this means that the markets of Egypt, Algeria, Indonesia, and other Global South countries are becoming key for monetizing the harvest and generating foreign currency revenues for the agricultural sector. At the same time, such a model increases dependence on stable maritime logistics through the Black Sea corridor, competitiveness against Russian and Romanian grain, and solvent demand in importing countries of the Mediterranean and Asia.
Prices for wheat in the ports of Greater Odessa (CPT port basis) began to rise this week, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
According to monitoring data, as of March 11, 2026, traders’ prices for class 2 wheat most often range from 10,600 to 11,000 UAH/ton CPT port, which is 100-150 UAH/ton higher than at the end of the previous week. In dollar terms, demand prices also rose and amounted to $215-225/ton CPT port.
According to analysts, prices were supported by the rise in grain prices on a FOB basis amid increased demand and restrained sales by farmers, as well as the devaluation of the national currency against the dollar.
“Individual export-oriented companies declared lower prices due to the lack of need to urgently form volumes to fulfill previously concluded contracts,” the agency stated.
Wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) are expected to reach 17.6 million tons, which is 11.5% more than in the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC).
The association estimates the gross harvest for the current season at 23.1 million tons, which is 2.9% more than in 2024/2025 MY.
According to analysts, the increase in production was made possible by the expansion of cultivated areas to 5.1 million hectares (by 4.8%), which offset the decline in average yield to 4.5 tons/hectare due to unfavorable weather conditions. At the same time, the current harvest is still 6.2% below the average for the last five years.
The UACB predicts that the increase in harvest will allow for an increase in shipments after a drop in exports in the previous season to 15.8 million tons. Experts cite the stable operation of Ukraine’s own sea route as the main factor in the recovery.
At the same time, domestic demand in Ukraine continues to decline due to the temporary occupation of territories and population migration. Total wheat consumption in 2025/2026 MY is forecast at 6.2 million tons, of which 3.7 million tons will be used for food, 1.5 million tons for feed, and 825,000 tons for seeds.
“The Ukrainian wheat market is demonstrating adaptability. Despite demographic challenges and weather conditions, farmers are managing to increase their acreage. Domestic needs are fully met, and the successful operation of export routes allows for the restoration of positive supply dynamics and guarantees Ukraine’s stable presence in key markets in Europe, Africa, and Asia,” the UCAAB concluded.
Wheat prices in Ukraine will continue to rise until at least mid-March due to reduced supplies from the Black Sea region and limited supply from producers, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“Due to logistical constraints, the export volumes of one of Ukraine’s key competitors may fall by almost half. Accordingly, global importers will have to buy about 1–1.5 million tons of wheat from other suppliers, including Ukraine, Romania, and France,” analysts said.
According to experts, there is an imbalance in the domestic market: traders are actively contracting grain, while farmers are holding back sales. This leads to a weekly increase in wheat prices of $1–2 per ton. Weather risks and the threat of winter crop losses due to frost remain an additional factor supporting prices.
Currently, the conditional prices for food wheat (11.5% protein) on a CPT-port basis are $215–220 per ton. At the beginning of March, prices are expected to strengthen to $220–225 per ton.
Further price movements after mid-March will be determined by the condition of winter crops and the overall global market situation, Pusk concluded.
