The information and analytical center Experts Club presented a video analysis of the dynamics of wheat cultivation worldwide for the period from 1990 to 2026, prepared on the basis of comparative data on wheat production in the main producing countries.
According to available data, global wheat production in the countries included in the analysis increased from about 591.3 million tonnes in 1990 to an estimated 816.4 million tonnes in 2026. Thus, over 36 years, the volume of production increased by approximately 225 million tonnes, or by 38%.
At the same time, the highest indicator in the available data set was recorded in 2025 — about 831.9 million tonnes. The forecast indicator for 2026 is lower — 816.4 million tonnes, which may indicate a partial correction after the high harvest of the previous year, but the overall long-term trend remains upward.
Experts Club notes that the video format makes it possible to visually trace not only the growth of global wheat production, but also the change in the geography of the main producers. If in the early 1990s the largest producers included the USSR, China, the United States, India, France and Canada, then in the current structure the leading positions are occupied by China, India, Russia, the United States, France, Canada, Australia, Pakistan and Ukraine.
According to FAO and USDA data, in 1990 the largest volume of wheat production was accounted for by the USSR — about 101.9 million tonnes, China — 98.2 million tonnes, the United States — 74.3 million tonnes, India — 49.8 million tonnes, France — 33.3 million tonnes and Canada — 32.1 million tonnes. The combined share of the ten largest producers at that time was about 77% of the global indicator.
In 2026, according to available data, China remains the largest wheat producer — about 141 million tonnes. India ranks second — 121 million tonnes, and Russia ranks third — 86 million tonnes. They are followed by the United States — 42.5 million tonnes, France — 36 million tonnes, Canada — 35 million tonnes, Australia and Pakistan — 30 million tonnes each, Ukraine — 23 million tonnes, and Germany — 21.5 million tonnes.
The share of China and India in global wheat production increased significantly during this period. If in 1990 these two countries accounted for about 25% of global production, then in 2026 they already account for more than 32%. This reflects the long-term strengthening of Asia’s role in the global food system.
“Wheat remains one of the basic indicators of food security. Over the past decades, we have seen not only an increase in global production, but also a gradual shift in the centers of agricultural weight. China and India have become key producers, while the countries of the Black Sea region have significantly strengthened their influence on the international grain market,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club and Candidate of Economic Sciences.
Ukraine plays a separate role in the modern production structure. According to available data, after Ukraine appeared as a separate statistical unit in the early 1990s, wheat production amounted to about 19.5 million tonnes in 1992. In 2021, the indicator reached more than 32 million tonnes, after which it declined due to the war, logistical restrictions, mined territories, changes in the structure of sown areas and the loss of part of production capacity.
In 2024, wheat production in Ukraine was estimated at approximately 23.4 million tonnes, in 2025 — 24.1 million tonnes, and in 2026 — about 23 million tonnes. Despite difficult conditions, Ukraine remains among the ten largest wheat producers in the world and retains strategic importance for the global grain market.
The data also indicate changes in the position of the United States. In 1990, the United States produced more than 74 million tonnes of wheat and was one of the three largest producers in the world. In 2026, its indicator stands at about 42.5 million tonnes. This does not mean a loss of U.S. agricultural potential as a whole, but reflects structural changes in agriculture, competition with other crops and a change in the global production balance.
Russia, which has been reflected separately in statistics after the collapse of the USSR, has become one of the key wheat producers in the 21st century. According to available data, in 2025 its production was estimated at approximately 90.3 million tonnes, and in 2026 — 86 million tonnes. At the same time, the countries of the former USSR as a whole remain an important center of global grain production.
“The global wheat market has become much more multipolar. If previously several major producers played the key role, now several regions at once are critically important for food stability — Asia, North America, Europe, the Black Sea basin and Australia. Any climatic, logistical or military-political risks in one of these regions quickly affect global prices,” Urakin emphasized.
Experts Club draws attention to the fact that when analyzing wheat, it is important to distinguish between absolute production volumes, export potential and domestic consumption. China and India are the largest producers, but a significant part of their harvest is used on the domestic market. Instead, Ukraine, Russia, Canada, Australia, the United States and France have a significant influence specifically on international wheat trade.
The center’s analysts note that the further dynamics of wheat production will depend on several key factors: climatic conditions, access to fertilizers and seeds, energy costs, the state of logistics infrastructure, trade restrictions, war risks and state policy to support the agricultural sector.
According to Experts Club’s assessment, long-term visualization of wheat cultivation indicators makes it possible to better understand how the global food system has changed since 1990, which countries have strengthened their positions and why grain production remains one of the key elements of economic and political security.
In January–April 2036, Ukraine exported 3.34 million tons of wheat, which is 16% less than in the same period of 2025; in monetary terms, this figure decreased by 14.7% to $745 million.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service, the main buyer of Ukrainian wheat during this period, as in the previous year, was Egypt, but its share of total exports rose to nearly 38.9% ($289.7 million) compared to 22% ($192 million) in January–April 2025.
Algeria spent $161.7 million on Ukrainian wheat—14% less than in the first four months of last year—and its share of total exports decreased slightly to 21.7%.
In contrast, wheat exports to Spain in January–April fell by more than 2.8 times—to $67.1 million, and its share dropped to 9% from 21.86%. At the same time, in April, this country doubled its purchases of Ukrainian wheat compared to April 2025, reaching $41.3 million.
Overall, in April, Ukraine exported $290 million worth of wheat, which is 63.9% more than in April 2025. Meanwhile, wheat shipments to Egypt increased fivefold—to $156.3 million—while exports to Algeria decreased by 32.8%—to $30.7 million.
Exports of Ukrainian wheat to other countries in January–April fell by more than a quarter—to $226.6 million, and in April specifically—by 22.7%, to $61.6 million.
As reported, in 2025 Ukraine exported 13.63 million tons of wheat—34% less than in 2024—reducing revenue by 20% to nearly $3 billion.
In its May report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its first forecast for wheat and corn exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2026 marketing year (MY) – 13 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively, which is 0.5 million tons and 1 million tons more than in the current MY.
According to USDA estimates, Ukraine’s wheat harvest in the next MY will decline to 23 million tons from 24.1 million tons last year, but ending stocks for the year will increase by only 0.9 million tons—to 4.53 million tons—while this year they are expected to rise by 2.9 million tons.
As for the corn harvest, USDA analysts forecast it at 30 million tons this year, compared to 30.9 million tons last year. The increase in exports is also expected to result from a decrease in ending stocks by 0.19 million tons, while this marketing year they are projected to increase by 1.91 million tons.
Taking other crops into account, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects this year’s forage grain harvest to decrease to 36.08 million tons from 37.22 million tons last year, but an increase in its exports next marketing year to 25.19 million tons from 24.30 million tons this marketing year, also due to carryover stocks accumulated this year.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy forecasts a grain harvest of approximately 60.4 million tons in 2026, which is only 1%, or 0.64 million tons, less than last year. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, the harvest of major crops may amount to: wheat – about 22.4 million tons, barley – about 4.7 million tons, and corn – about 31.6 million tons.
According to the State Statistics Service, the wheat harvest in 2025 increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million tons, corn by 14.6% to 30.9 million tons, while the barley harvest decreased by 2.4% to 5.2 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects this year’s wheat harvest to decrease to 819.06 million tons and its exports to 211.70 million tons, down from 843.84 million tons and 222.68 million tons, respectively, last year.
The USDA’s first forecast for global corn production this year is 1,295.38 million tons, with exports for the 2026/27 marketing year at 206.91 million tons, while last year’s harvest was 1,312.68 million tons, and exports for the 2025-26 marketing year are expected to reach 213.59 million tons.
Ukraine is seeing a steady trend toward reducing acreage for grain crops in favor of oilseeds, driven by a significant difference in their profit margins, said Maksym Kharchenko, an analyst at the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
“The profitability of wheat production, and of grains in general, is currently lower than that of oilseeds. This trend has been clearly evident over the past few seasons. While before the full-scale invasion, the area under wheat was significantly larger than that under sunflowers, the situation has changed since 2023: sunflower crops in Ukraine have become more stable and extensive than grain crops,” he said during the Black Sea Grain.Kyiv conference on Wednesday.
According to UkrAgroConsult, the profitability of wheat cultivation in the current season is less than 30%, while for sunflowers this figure reaches about 50%. The profitability of other oilseed crops—rapeseed and soybeans—remains at a similarly high level.
The analyst emphasized that despite the loss of some territories, the area under oilseed crops has not only recovered but, in some segments, has exceeded pre-war levels. This reflects farmers’ strategic shift away from grains in favor of more profitable crops.
According to the infographic, the crop mix of major export crops in Ukraine is shifting in line with profitability indicators. Until 2022, wheat led in terms of acreage, but its unprofitability—at -14.9% in 2022 and -1.8% in 2023—forced farmers to rethink their priorities. The graph shows a so-called “inflection point” in the 2022/23 season, after which sunflowers finally surpassed wheat. Currently, it offers the highest profitability at 48%, while the profitability of wheat and corn stands at only 26% and 23%, respectively, which serves as an incentive for farmers to further expand the acreage under oilseed crops.
“We are seeing an increase in production across all oilseed crops. In particular, we expect the sunflower harvest (in the 2026/2027 season – IF-U) to grow to 13.7 million tons due to better yields and increased acreage,“ forecasts ”UkrAgroConsult.”
In its April report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025–2026 marketing year (MY) to 12.5 million tons from 13.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million tons (7.4%). Meanwhile, the estimate for Ukraine’s wheat harvest remains unchanged at 24.0 million tons, while the forecast for ending stocks has been raised to 3.93 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons.
Globally, the USDA raised its forecast for wheat production in the 2025–2026 MY to 844.15 million tons, while the estimate for global exports was lowered to 221.88 million tons, and ending stocks could rise to 283.12 million tons. Among major exporters, the agency raised its harvest estimate for the EU to 145.11 million tons and for Russia to 90.3 million tons, while increasing its forecast for Russian exports to 44.5 million tons.
The global wheat market has entered the spring season with increased volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fierce competition among key exporters, according to the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
Analysts noted that the Black Sea region remains the main benchmark for global prices, and Ukrainian wheat quotations at ports on CPT terms are currently in the range of $215–222 per ton. Demand from major importers in North Africa and the Middle East remains strong, as evidenced by buyers’ willingness to operate at current price levels even during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
At the same time, in EU countries, large carryover grain stocks and weaker export rates continue to put pressure on domestic prices. Against this backdrop, logistics costs and energy prices are playing an increasingly significant role in shaping the global market, as they directly determine suppliers’ competitiveness and the overall economics of production.
Among the key trends of the season, UkrAgroConsult highlighted the formation of a new structure of global trade under the influence of geopolitical factors. Analysts predict that increased investor interest in commodity assets and changes in traditional logistics routes will be decisive for price dynamics in the short term.
