Disruptions in grain supplies from the Black Sea region and hot weather, which worsened harvest forecasts in a number of countries, led to a 2.2% increase in global grain prices in August compared to July. Prices reached their highest level since May 2024, according to the monthly review by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
According to the report, international prices for all major grain crops rose in August. “This was driven by strong demand resulting from deteriorating harvest prospects in key producing regions due to adverse weather conditions, as well as ongoing uncertainty regarding exports from the Black Sea region,” the report states.
Global wheat prices rose by 2.6% in August compared to July, with a year-over-year increase of 15%. Among the reasons, FAO experts also cite “protracted disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region, downward revisions to production forecasts in some European regions experiencing hot and dry weather, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, which has made export shipments more competitive.”
Corn prices rose by 2.5% compared to July, driven by growing concerns about harvest prospects in some regions of the U.S. Corn Belt and worsening production forecasts in the EU. At the same time, demand from ethanol producers and the animal feed industry remains high.
“Fears regarding food supply following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provided additional support to corn prices,” the review notes.
Global prices for sorghum and barley rose by 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively, in August compared with July, “which generally reflects a more stable situation in the feed grain markets,” the review states.
Rice prices rose by 0.5% in August. “The rise in prices for Indian rice varieties was driven by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, purchases by Asian and African countries, and an expected reduction in supplies,” the report states.
TAS Agro Pivden LLC has begun planting winter wheat, with 9,800 hectares set aside for it this year, the company reported on Facebook.
“After thorough soil preparation, in accordance with the farm’s chosen technology, we have begun sowing one of the main crops for the upcoming harvest,” the company said in a post on Friday.
The company noted that crop development, winter hardiness, and future yield potential will depend on the quality of execution at each stage of preparation.
The “TAS Agro” agricultural holding is part of the “TAS” Group, founded in 1998. The group’s business interests span the financial (banking and insurance segments) and pharmaceutical sectors, as well as manufacturing, real estate, and venture capital projects.
Serhiy Tihipko is the founder of “TAS” and the beneficial owner of the “TAS Agro” agricultural holding.
As of September 1, 445,300 hectares had been planted with winter rapeseed in Ukraine, which is 18% more than on the same date last year, according to the ASAP Agri analytical agency.
The highest rates of winter rapeseed planting were recorded in the Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and Ternopil regions.
At the same time, Ukrainian farmers have begun planting winter wheat—as of September 1, the first 8,900 hectares had been planted. Sowing of winter barley has also begun, but the work is still in a very early stage—less than 1,000 hectares have been sown.
The areas planted with winter wheat and barley may shrink compared to last year, notes ASAP Agri.
The price of food-grade wheat in Ukraine fell by $10 over the week—to $185 per metric ton on a CPT Odessa basis—while feed-grade wheat also dropped by $10, to $175 per metric ton, according to a weekly market review by the brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
“The global grain market ended the week with a further rise, but this trend did not carry over to Ukrainian basis prices,” the review noted.
Wheat exports from Ukraine during August 1–27 fell by half (-49.8%) compared to the same period last month—to 486,600 metric tons from 969,400 metric tons. The main destinations were Bangladesh—251,000 metric tons, Indonesia—243,500 metric tons, and Algeria—226,300 metric tons. These three countries accounted for about 74% of total exports of this product. Saudi Arabia and Yemen followed in terms of volume, with approximately 54,500 metric tons each.
The price of corn on a CPT Odessa basis fell by $5 to $185 per metric ton, while on an FCA Chop basis, it rose by $5 to $225 per metric ton.
Corn exports from August 1–27 totaled 190.7 thousand metric tons, which is 84.3% less than during the same period in July.
According to Spike Brokers, trading in next year’s corn crop is already active along the western border. During the week, October–December quotes on an FCA Zahony–Chop–Batyovo basis ranged from EUR188 to EUR191 per metric ton.
Brokers note that this trade route faces physical constraints on both sides of the border, particularly due to transshipment capacity in Ukraine and the EU, the availability of rail logistics, and the fleet of Euro-standard railcars.
Wheat trade in Ukraine remains sluggish, while the corn market continues to see some activity, primarily along the western border, consulting firm Barva Invest reported on its Telegram channel.
According to the firm, prices for Ukrainian wheat with an 11.5% protein content on a DAP-Danube basis stand at $166–168 per metric ton.
“An imbalance between supply and demand persists in the Ukrainian wheat market. A shortage of EU quotas, logistics at the western border booked months in advance, and the absence of panic among importers are holding back trading activity and putting downward pressure on prices,” the report states.
Quotes for Ukrainian corn on a DAP Izov basis stand at $173 per metric ton.
“The Ukrainian corn market is in the off-season and awaiting the resumption of deep-water exports. Some activity continues along the western border for both the old crop and forward contracts,” analysts note.
As of August 25, Ukrainian farmers had threshed 6.76 million hectares, or 58% of the projected area, and harvested 31.73 million metric tons of grain from the new crop, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
Wheat was harvested from 5 million hectares, yielding 24.61 million metric tons, with an average yield of 49.2 centners per hectare; barley was harvested from 1.46 million hectares, yielding 6.33 million metric tons, with an average yield of 43.4 centners per hectare. Peas were harvested from 297,000 hectares, yielding 786,900 metric tons, with a yield of 26.5 ts/ha.
Farmers in the Odesa, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk regions currently lead in terms of the gross harvest volume of grain and legume crops.
In the Odesa region, 4.82 million metric tons were harvested from an area of 1.19 million hectares, specifically: 3.22 million metric tons of wheat, 1.31 million metric tons of barley, and 285,000 metric tons of peas.
In the Kirovohrad region, 2.42 million metric tons have been harvested from an area of 556,000 hectares: 1.92 million metric tons of wheat, 412,000 metric tons of barley, and 82,000 metric tons of peas.
In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast—2.63 million metric tons from an area of 634,000 hectares: wheat—2.02 million metric tons, barley—568,000 metric tons, and peas—37,000 metric tons.
The highest grain yields are currently recorded in the Khmelnytskyi (70.8 ts/ha), Sumy (60.1 ts/ha), and Vinnytsia (59.7 ts/ha) regions.
The rapeseed harvest is nearly complete—1.32 million hectares have been threshed, or 99% of the projected area, yielding 3.79 million metric tons of seed with an average yield of 28.6 centners per hectare.
In some regions, the harvest of buckwheat and millet has begun. For buckwheat, 0.65 thousand hectares have been threshed, yielding 0.9 thousand metric tons at a yield of 13.8 centners per hectare; for millet, 3.6 thousand hectares have been harvested, yielding 7.84 thousand metric tons at a yield of 21.8 centners per hectare.
