The World Bank will provide Ukraine with $4.8 billion for recovery following a roundtable talk held in Washington on April 21 along with the Ukrainian government, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has said.
“Yesterday, during a ministerial roundtable talk, I turned to the World Bank. The result is $4.8 billion for the restoration of Ukraine,” the head of state said on Instagram.
He thanked that Ukraine “is heard and supported.”
“With such help, we will be able to quickly restore the country,” Zelensky said.
As reported, the president of Ukraine, in his speech at this roundtable talk via video link, said the country needs support in the amount of up to $7 billion monthly, while Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that $4 billion to $5 billion is needed to cover the budget deficit.
Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 45.1%, the World Bank predicts, recalling that before the Russian invasion, it expected the Ukrainian economy to grow by 3.2% this year.
According to its Europe and Central Asia Economic Update amid the war unleashed by Russia and its consequences, in 2023 the Ukrainian economy is expected to recover by only 2.1%, which is also worse than previous expectations of 3.5%.
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a catastrophic humanitarian toll and severe economic contraction… The impact on poverty is also likely to be devastating, although it is hard to quantify at this stage. Based on the international poverty line of $5.50 per day, poverty is projected to increase to 19.8% in 2022, up from 1.8% in 2021, with an additional 59% of people being vulnerable to falling into poverty,” the World Bank said in the report.
According to the document, simulations using the most recent macroeconomic projection show that the share of the population with incomes below the actual subsistence minimum (the national poverty line) may reach 70% in 2022, up from 18% in 2021. In the absence of a massive post-war support package, this indicator would still be higher than 60% by 2025, the bank added.
According to the World Bank’s forecasts, private consumption in Ukraine this year will fall by 50%, while public consumption by 10%, and capital investment will drop by 57.5%. Exports of goods and services will be reduced by 80%, imports – by 70%, while the public debt to GDP ratio will increase from 50.7% to 90.7%. The forecast for the consumer price index is 15% with an increase to 19% next year.
World Bank experts expect this year a current account deficit of the balance of payments of 6.8% of GDP and its expansion to 16.8% in 2023, a fiscal deficit (non-military) – 17.5% and 26.5%, respectively.
Even for 2024, the World Bank predicts an acceleration of economic growth to only 5.8% with inflation of 8.4%
“In coming years, a major reconstruction effort is expected to push growth to over 7% by 2025 amid a slow restoration of productive and export capacity and gradual return of refugees. Still, by 2025, GDP will be a third less than its pre-war level in 2021,” the World Bank said.
The World Bank explains the absence of a strong rebound in economic growth in 2022-2023 by saying that the war has destroyed a critical amount of productive infrastructure—including rail, bridges, ports, and roads—rendering economic activity impossible in large swathes of areas. Goods trade has come to a grinding halt, as damaged transit routes prevent goods by land while the loss of access to the Black Sea cuts off half of Ukraine’s exports and 90% of its grain trade. The planting and harvest seasons have been disrupted, the World Bank said.
“The magnitude of the contraction, however, is subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to the duration and intensity of the war. Still, the repercussions are anticipated to reverberate beyond the short-term collapse in domestic demand and exports, as output is scarred by the destruction of productive capacity, damage to arable land, and smaller labor supply – especially if refugees are slow to return or choose to remain permanently outside Ukraine,” the World Bank said.
Learning losses from the pandemic are expected to be amplified by the war given the destruction of schools and disruption to schooling. The Bank, referring to UNICEF data, said that the war had displaced 4.5 million children – more than half of Ukraine’s estimated 7.5 million child population – likely disrupting education, setting back development goals, and eroding long-term potential growth prospects.
“With physical capital and vital assets destroyed and degraded, combined with scarring from the war and pandemic, the recovery will be more difficult without significant reconstruction efforts and capital flows,” the World Bank said.
The Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) is in a “critical” position with food and fuel as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to unfold, World Bank Managing Director of Development Policy and Partnerships Mari Pangestu told Al Arabiya TV channel.
“Our forecast team has been estimating that if we see high food and fuel prices last for six months to a year,” she said, “it could negatively impact growth.”
In the global context, “availability and affordability” of food is the UN-backed organization’s concern, according to Pangestu. However, she said that unlike the global food crisis in 2008, the World Bank official clarified that “we actually don’t have a shortage of production.”
“There’s sufficient production of… wheat, rice or other grain products,” she said.
She also said that the food issue goes beyond the Ukraine war.
“Food security and price drops are something that’s not going to go away even after we have resolved the current situation,” Pangestu said.
Earlier this week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Medi 1 that Russia’s war in Ukraine is affecting food supplies and energy prices around the world.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky discussed with President of World Bank Group David Malpass an increase in the World Bank role in the stability of Ukraine’s financial sector and thanked for the provision of $350 million in financial assistance.
“Discussed with David Malpass the increasing role of the World Bank in the stability of Ukraine’s financial sector. The World Bank President noted economic stabilization, land reform and infrastructure projects in Ukraine. We are grateful for $350 million in financial support,” Zelensky wrote on Twitter on Saturday while in Munich.
The World Bank may provide the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine with financing in the amount of $250 million for the modernization of the railway.
According to a report on the bank’s website, the project is intended to increase the efficiency and financial stability of JSC Ukrzaliznytsia.
Financing of the project may begin in FY2022, which ends on June 30 at the World Bank.
In addition, according to a posting on the bank’s website, it may also provide Ukraine with $400 million in financing for the Road Safety Facility.
The purpose of this project, as noted in the report, is to support the implementation of the Vision Zero concept in Ukraine (an international program to improve road safety and reduce mortality in road traffic accidents).
Financing of the project may begin in FY2023, which starts at the World Bank on July 1, 2022.
Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko and World Bank Regional Country Director for Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine Arup Banerji have signed a loan agreement for EUR 300 million in order to continue implementing economic recovery projects, the Finance Ministry said.
“The loan is the result of structural reforms in the areas of demonopolizing key sectors of the economy, strengthening anti-corruption institutions, improving the work of land and capital markets, as well as improving the social welfare system,” the ministry said on its website on Monday.
As part of further cooperation between Ukraine and the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development, the World Bank Country Partnership Strategy for 2022-2025 is being developed. Its goal is Ukraine’s achievement of sustainable economic recovery and growth. The priorities of the strategy will be energy, agriculture, and transport system, the Ministry of Finance said.
Ukraine received its first loan from the IBRD in the amount of $350 million for the development policy in the field of economic recovery in June 2021.
