The National Bank of Ukraine has lowered its forecast for the vegetable harvest in 2026 from 8 million to 7 million tonnes, which is 12.5% below the previous estimate.
As noted in a report by the Experts Club information and analytical center, based on the NBU’s October Inflation Report published on November 6, 2026, lower potato and vegetable harvests negatively affected agricultural performance indicators.
Compared with 2025, when Ukraine harvested 8.2 million tonnes of vegetables, the projected decline in production amounts to 1.2 million tonnes, or 14.6%.
For comparison, the gross vegetable harvest amounted to 6.8 million tonnes in 2024 and 9.9 million tonnes in the pre-war year of 2021.
Thus, expected production in 2026 remains 2.9 million tonnes, or 29.3%, below the pre-war level.
At the same time, the NBU’s updated forecast for 2027 also envisages lower production volumes than previously expected.
In particular, the vegetable harvest forecast for next year has been reduced from 8.1 million to 7.4 million tonnes, or by 8.6%.
Compared with 2026, this would mean a possible increase in production of 400,000 tonnes, although the harvest volume would still remain significantly below the 2021 level.
A reduction in vegetable production may create additional risks for the food market, particularly given the highly seasonal nature of supplies and the need for long-term storage of some products.
At the same time, the impact on prices of individual types of vegetables may vary significantly depending on the harvest of a particular crop, its quality, the availability of stocks, and import volumes.
According to the State Statistics Service, vegetable prices fell by 2.3% in September 2026 compared with August, demonstrating the impact of a seasonal increase in supply on consumer prices.
For Ukrainian vegetable producers, the main areas for improving resilience remain the development of irrigation, modernization of vegetable storage facilities, expansion of greenhouse production, and processing.
At the same time, the final results of the 2026 vegetable season will depend on the outcomes of harvesting and the revision of official agricultural statistics.
agricultural sector, EXPERTS CLUB, HARVEST, PRODUCTION, UKRAINE, VEGETABLES
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