According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global wheat production in 2025 is forecast to reach around 809.7 million tons, which is 1.3% higher than in 2024.
The growth is expected to be driven by increased yields in Canada, Kazakhstan, China, and India, while southern Europe and North Africa remain at risk of lower production due to drought.
“The outlook for the global wheat market remains generally positive, and global stocks at the end of the season will remain stable despite active exports from the Black Sea region,” the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief notes in its October review.
Top 20 countries in the world by wheat production in 2025 (FAO and USDA estimates)
These twenty countries produce more than 90% of the world’s wheat.
Despite overall growth in yields, global wheat stocks could decline by 1.6% to around 312 million tons by the end of 2025. This is due to increased domestic consumption in Asia and the Middle East, as well as active exports from Russia, Ukraine, and Australia.
Average global wheat prices remain volatile, but FAO analysts predict their relative stabilization while maintaining harvest and stock volumes.
Despite the war, Ukraine retains its status as one of the largest grain exporters. According to estimates by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in the 2024–2025 marketing year, the country exported about 15 million tons of wheat, supplying it to Egypt, Indonesia, Spain, Turkey, and Tunisia.
Ukraine ranks 11th–12th in the world in wheat production and is among the top five global exporters thanks to its high yields and logistics routes through the Danube and Baltic ports.
A detailed overview of the world’s major wheat producers from 1970 to 2024 can be found in the Experts Club analytical video: Watch on YouTube
The Experts Club analytical center has created a video analysis of global aluminum production in 1970-2024. Based on visual data from the video “Top 20 aluminum producers from 1970 to 2024” and confirmed statistical data for 2024, an overview of industry trends has been formulated.
Since the 1970s, primary aluminum production has gradually shifted from Europe and North America to Asia and the Middle East. At the dawn of the industry, Western Europe and the US accounted for a significant share of production. However, the following decades saw rapid capacity expansion in China, India, and the Middle East.
The video confirms that in 2024, the largest producer (China) controls about 60% of the world’s volume, while the top ten leaders account for more than 80% of production.
According to sources (Wikipedia, Visual Capitalist, NATO, World Population Review), aluminum production in the top ten countries in 2024 will look like this:
China — ~43 million tons.
India — ~4.2 million tons.
Russia — ~3.8 million tons.
Canada — ~3.3 million tons.
UAE — ~2.7 million tons.
Bahrain — ~1.6 million tons.
Australia — ~1.5 million tons.
Norway — ~1.3 million tons.
Brazil — ~1.1 million tons.
Malaysia — ~0.98 million tons.
Total global primary aluminum production in 2024 is estimated at approximately 72 million tons.
The world of aluminum production is becoming increasingly concentrated: China holds a dominant position, while other leading countries control a significant share. Countries with growing infrastructure, automotive, and construction sectors (India, Brazil, UAE) are showing dynamic growth.
The video is available on our YouTube channel –
World demand for gold excluding over-the-counter (OTC) transactions in the third quarter of 2025 amounted to 1.26 thousand tons, which is 5% higher than the result of the corresponding period last year, calculated by the World Gold Council (WGC).
Investors continued to play a key role: purchases in ETFs in the third quarter amounted to 222 tons, demand for coins and bars – 316 tons (for the fourth consecutive quarter it exceeded 300 tons). Central bank purchases also remain at a high level of 220 tons – 28% more than in the previous quarter.
Supply in the gold market increased by 3% to 1.31 thousand tons. This is a quarterly record in the history of observations. The excess supply, 55 tons, was absorbed by the OTC market.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold producing countries in its Youtube channel video – https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=YuRnDiu7jtfUPBR9.
The European Union is facing a serious crisis in the supply of critical materials after the decision of the Chinese government to impose new export restrictions on rare-earth magnets and raw materials for their production, reports Politico.
As noted, Beijing’s decision in early October has escalated the trade standoff with the United States and created risks for European industry, which is almost entirely dependent on imports of such elements from China.
“A crisis in the supply of critical raw materials is no longer a remote risk. It is already on our doorstep,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told MEPs on the eve of the EU summit.
She emphasized the need for “decisive and urgent action” to ensure faster and more reliable supplies of critical materials “both within Europe itself and from trusted partners.”
European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said the EU was not interested in escalating tensions, but emphasized the need to resolve the situation quickly. “However, this situation casts a shadow on our relations. Therefore, a quick solution is essential,” he said.
Šefčovič said China and the EU will “strengthen contacts at all levels” to discuss the restrictions. Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao is due to arrive in Brussels for consultations in the coming days.
“The European Union is also holding talks with the G7 countries on an agreed response to the crisis ahead of a ministerial meeting to be held October 30-31 in Canada,” the report said.
Earlier, the information and analytical center Experts Club analyzed the global market of rare earth metals of the world and Ukraine, the video is available here -.
https://youtu.be/UHeBfpywpQc?si=0L-2nSUrLlIbqVZ5?si=Fk6Oi_13NKpEW81K
CHINA, EUROPEAN UNION, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORT, rare earth elements
In September, the Chinese economy showed higher-than-expected growth rates in industry and retail trade, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand and business activity.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, industrial production grew by 6.5% year-on-year, the highest rate since June. In August, growth was 5.2%, and analysts had expected a slowdown to 5%.
The largest contributors were:
manufacturing — +7.3%,
mining — +6.4%,
oil and gas — +8.9%,
automobile production — +16%,
computers and telecommunications equipment — +11.3%.
Growth was recorded in 36 of 41 sectors of the economy. Overall, industrial production increased by 6.2% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period last year.
Retail sales in September grew by 3% year-on-year. This is slightly less than in August (3.4%), but still better than analysts’ forecasts (2.9%).
The largest increases were in sales of food products (+6.3%), jewelry (+9.7%), and clothing (+4.7%). Car sales rose by 1.6%, while petroleum product sales fell by 7.1%.
Since the beginning of the year, retail turnover has reached 36.6 trillion yuan (about $5.1 trillion), which is 4.5% more than a year earlier.
Investments in fixed assets as a whole declined slightly, by 0.5%, mainly due to a decline in the construction sector (-13.9%). At the same time, investments in infrastructure and manufacturing grew by 1.1% and 4%, respectively.
The unemployment rate in September fell to 5.2% from 5.3% a month earlier.
Experts from the Experts Club analytical center note that the Chinese economy remains stable despite the slowdown in global demand and difficulties in the real estate sector.
Reference: Experts Club.
For several years now, China has ranked first in the world in terms of economic size, calculated in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), ahead of the US and the EU. This confirms its status as the largest industrial and consumer center on the planet.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of June 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Ukraine ended the first half of 2025 in a state of moderate but fragile stabilization. After a “flat” start to the year and a weak first quarter, which the NBU assessed as a period of subdued activity, in April-June the economy maintained positive momentum primarily due to domestic consumption and sectors that adapted to military logistics. In its April decision, the NBU kept the policy rate at 15.5%, emphasizing the need to support currency stability and reduce inflation expectations; in its July decision, the regulator confirmed this level, which anchored rates for hryvnia instruments.
Inflation slowed significantly: in June, the annual rate fell to 14.3% y/y (from 15.9% in May), reflecting a combination of tighter monetary policy, currency stability, and price adjustments for certain food groups; the monthly rate was +0.8%. This is the first significant “dip” in annual inflation below 15% this year.
Foreign trade remains the main source of imbalances. In January–May, exports of goods amounted to about $16.95 billion, imports to $31.54 billion, and the negative balance deepened to $14.6 billion (+49% y/y). The key drivers of imports were energy, machinery, and chemicals; exports were structurally biased toward food and raw materials.
Against the backdrop of the trade gap, international reserves remained an important buffer. As of July 1, 2025, they reached $45.1 billion (+1.2% in June) thanks to large inflows from partners (in particular, the EU, Canada, and the World Bank), which exceeded FX interventions and debt payments. This is a historically high level for Ukraine and a critical safety margin for the currency market.
“Current growth is supported by consumption and official financing; without the launch of an investment cycle, it will remain low and unsustainable. International reserves are a stabilization tool, not a source of development; the effect will only appear after they are converted into value-added projects. The trade deficit, in turn, is structural in nature: it should be addressed through logistics, energy modernization, and localization of production, not just exchange rate decisions,” said Maksim Urakin.
The debt burden has increased. As of June 30, 2025, the total public and publicly guaranteed debt was estimated at approximately $184.8 billion (equivalent to UAH 7.697 trillion), adding nearly $3.9 billion in a month. External liabilities structurally prevail, which increases dependence on official financing.
International support remained systemic. On June 30, the IMF completed the eighth review of the EFF program and approved further financing (total payments under the program exceeded $10 billion), while confirming Ukraine’s fulfillment of key criteria and continuation of structural reforms.
“The second quarter showed that the economy has learned to operate in a mode of constant shocks — we see the resilience of small and medium-sized businesses, the flexibility of logistics, and the rapid reorientation of exporters. But the fundamentals remain unchanged: the investment cycle has not been launched, and the trade deficit is structural; it will not disappear without a targeted industrial policy and incentives for localizing production. The discount rate of 15.5% is a compromise between the price of money and currency stability; it works as long as official financing enters the country. If we want to get out of “survival mode,” we need long-term money to restore energy, logistics hubs, and high-tech production. Reserves of over $45 billion are not a reason to relax, but a window of opportunity that must be converted into value-added projects, otherwise exchange rate stability will remain expensive and temporary,” Maksim Urakin emphasized:
Global economy
The world moved unevenly in the first half of 2025. After a technical contraction in the first quarter (-0.5% SAAR, -0.1% q/q), the US entered the second quarter with a recovery in demand: by the end of June, there were already signs of easing price pressure on the PCE index (≈2.5% y/y in May) and stabilization of household spending. Later official estimates show a significant rebound in the second quarter, but as of June 30, the key picture was “cold” demand amid high interest rates.
The eurozone showed a contrast: after a strong Q1 (+0.6% q/q), momentum moderated in April–June; preliminary estimates show Q2 added +0.1% q/q. The factors were weak external conditions, a correction in industry, and cautious consumers, despite easing inflation. The UK remained a positive exception among the G7: +0.7% q/q in Q1 and +0.3% q/q in Q2, although inflation accelerated to 3.6% y/y in June, slowing down the pace of monetary policy easing.
China maintained a pace close to its official target: GDP +5.2% y/y in Q2 (after +5.4% in Q1), but inflation remained sluggish — June CPI +0.1% y/y, reflecting weak domestic consumption and pressure from real estate. Exports and industrial production drove growth, but the question of the sustainability of domestic demand remained open.
Turkey grew by 2.0% y/y in Q1; inflation in June fell to ≈35% y/y, demonstrating the effect of protracted disinflation despite high rates and a cool business cycle.
India remained the most dynamic major economy: in Q4 of fiscal year 2024/25, real GDP grew by 7.4% y/y, and by 6.5% for the year as a whole; inflation in June came close to ≈2% y/y (according to MoSPI publications), creating room for cautious policy easing going forward.
Brazil added +1.4% q/q (2.9% y/y) in Q1 on the back of strong agriculture; the IPCA in June was 5.35% y/y (+0.24% m/m), remaining above the central bank’s target and forcing monetary authorities to act cautiously.
“Global growth in the first half of 2025 is a mosaic of different speeds. The US is balancing between tight rates and the desire not to ”overbrake” demand, Europe is slowly emerging from stagnation, China is holding the bar thanks to exports, but domestic demand has not yet recovered. For Ukraine, this means one simple thing: we should not expect external demand to pull us out of the doldrums on its own. We need targeted industrial programs, support for high value-added exports, and a transparent import substitution policy where it makes economic sense. Then, even amid global turbulence, we will be able to turn record reserves and international support into a long investment cycle and a new economic structure,” Maxim Urakhin concluded.
At the end of June 2025, Ukraine’s economy remains in a state of controlled equilibrium: inflation is slowing, reserves are at historic levels, and monetary policy is predictable. At the same time, a deep trade deficit, high debt burden, and weak investment flows remain key risks that require immediate responses — from tax and customs policy to incentives for localizing production and restoring critical infrastructure.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1113998.html
