Ukraine may lose EUR 700 million due to restrictions on the supply of Ukrainian metal products as part of the introduction by the European Union of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), according to a study by the information and analytical center GMK Center presented at a roundtable devoted to the impact of CBAM on the metallurgy of Ukraine held on April 9.
According to the press release, early March 2021, the European Parliament approved a resolution introducing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The European Union regards the CBAM as a special fiscal instrument that will force manufacturers of imported products to pay the same price for CO2 emissions that European producers pay. The official proposal for CBAM from the European Commission is expected to appear by the end of the second quarter of 2021. CBAM is planned to be in effect no later than 2023.
According to the study conducted by analysts of GMK Center, the negative impact on the metallurgy of Ukraine from the introduction by the European Union of the CBAM can reach EUR 700 million, or 0.5% of the gross domestic product compared to 2019.
“The metallurgical industry of Ukraine will be one of the most affected as a result of the introduction of CBAM. This will happen due to our close partnership with the EU. After all, domestic metallurgists supply 26% of marketable products to the European market, which is more than to our domestic market. Our competitors do not have such a high dependence on the EU market. The introduction of the CBAM will mean a decrease in the competitiveness of Ukrainian exports, losses for the domestic economy, a rupture of production chains between European and Ukrainian enterprises,” Director of GMK Center Stanislav Zinchenko said.
According to him, the annual export losses of Ukrainian metallurgy from the introduction of CBAM by the European Union are estimated at EUR 155-200 million per year, depending on the scenario. It will also reduce the financial results of the industry by EUR 105-200 million per year.
The CBAM covers about EUR 2.5 billion of metallurgical exports per year. The exact scale of damage to national producers depends on the form of implementation of the CBAM.
As a result of the effect of the carbon tax, one can expect a decrease in the volume of pig iron production by 500,000 tonnes (2.5% down compared to the level of 2019) and long products (including square billets) by 110,000 tonnes (1.4% down).
According to Chief Analyst at GMK Center Andriy Tarasenko, this could also lead to a decrease in the volume of capital investments in the amount of up to EUR 130 million per year (12% down compared to the level of 2019). In the long run, this will mean chronic investment lag and a competitive disadvantage.
“The CBAM should not be applied to Ukraine, since we have already taken on the goals of the European Green Deal. The exclusion of Ukraine from the CBAM, on the contrary, will be an incentive for the Ukrainian economy,” Zinchenko said.
Ukraine in January-March this year increased exports of coke and semi-coke in quantity terms by 6.7 times compared to the same period last year, to 48,970 tonnes.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service, in monetary terms, exports of coke and semi-coke increased by 14.2 times over this period, to $11.880 million.
At the same time, main exports were carried out to Turkey (52.68% of supplies in monetary terms), Bosnia and Herzegovina (12.58%) and Kazakhstan (12.28%).
Ukraine in January-March 2021 imported 84,895 tonnes of coke and semi-coke, which is 2.4 times more compared to January-March 2020. In monetary terms, imports increased by 2.5 times, to $21.141 million.
The products were mainly imported from the Russian Federation (57.24% of deliveries in monetary terms), Poland (24.37%) and the Czech Republic (14.53%).
Ukrainian furniture manufacturers in January-March of this year increased their furniture exports by 50% compared to the same period in 2019, to $247.4 million, while in the past five years (2015-2020) there was an annual increase of 13.5%, a member of the Ukrainian Association of Furniture Manufacturers (UAFM) Oksana Donska has said. “Due to COVID-19, the global supply chains have changed a lot. Ukrainian furniture is becoming more and more interesting for the international community of professional buyers,” she said at a press conference on the problems of timber market legislation organized by the RivneInvest agency in Kyiv.
According to her, today a transparent timber market is very necessary for Ukrainian furniture manufacturers.
“The furniture and woodworking industries of Ukraine create a product with high added value. Each hryvnia of wood value turns into UAH 30-50 of the cost of furniture supplied both to the domestic market and for export,” she said.
Donska said that today more than 100,000 people work in the furniture industry for more than 9,000 enterprises, and the export of Ukrainian furniture for the past five years has been growing by 13.5% annually. Furniture is exported to 119 countries, including Poland (more than 35% export), Germany (16%), Denmark, Austria, Romania, and France. Poland and Germany use Ukrainian furniture for further sale in the world.
“But compared to the same Poland, which has approximately the same forest resources, we export 20 times less – if Poland in 2020 exported furniture worth $14.8 billion (the third largest exporter in the world), then Ukraine for only $750 million (39th place),” Donska said.
She said that on June 15 through June 17 2021, Ukraine expects about 2,000 guests from 53 countries who will come to visit the Furniture of Ukraine Business Expo (FUBE-2021) organized by the UAFM with the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry for Development of Economy, trade and Agriculture.
“However, today the Association receives appeals from our members who complain about serious problems in their work due to the stagnation of the timber market. As a result, furniture makers do not receive furniture components on time, and contracts for the supply of finished furniture with retailers from Ukraine are broken. Ukraine’s reputation is on the line if it fails to implement contracts for the supply of furniture to the countries of Europe, Asia and America. If this situation continues for several more months, then Ukrainian enterprises will have to think not about development, but about survival,” Donska said.
Ukraine since the beginning of the 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of March 26, 2021 had exported 34.45 million tonnes of grains and legumes, which is 22.6% less than on the same date of the previous MY.
According to the information and analytical portal of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine, to date, 14.16 million tonnes of wheat, 15.64 million tonnes of corn, 4.06 million tonnes of barley have been exported.
As of the indicated date, 96,200 tonnes of flour were also exported.
As reported, the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine in February predicted a decline in exports of grains and legumes in the 2020/2021 MY by 20.5% compared to the previous MY, to 45.4 million tonnes.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, Ukraine exported 56.72 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops in the 2019/2020 MY.
Main trade partners of Ukraine in % from total volume (export from Ukraine to other countries) in 2020.
SSC of Ukraine
Structure of export of services for 9 months of 2020 (graphically).
