The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its July forecast for Ukraine’s wheat production in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MG, July-June) by 1 million tons compared to the June forecast, to 22 million tons (by 4.35%), while leaving its forecast for corn unchanged and raising its forecast for soybeans by 1 million tons, to 7.6 million tons (by 15.15%).
According to the US agency’s forecast, published on its website, wheat exports from Ukraine have been reduced by 1 million tons to 15.5 million tons, while final stocks have been increased by 0.1 million tons to 1.59 million tons.
The introduction of quotas on Ukrainian oil imports by the European Union in mid-June led to an increase in domestic prices for the product, industry analytical agency Infagro reported on Wednesday.
“In the first two weeks of the quotas, Ukrainian suppliers have already used about 25% of the allocated volume, and demand from European buyers remains high due to the price difference,” analysts said.
They noted that dumping in the trade of Ukrainian butter is causing discontent among Polish producers, which could negatively affect negotiations on further expansion of trade privileges for Ukraine. The European Commission is already taking these signals into account, the report said.
According to experts, preliminary estimates show that despite a pause in exports at the beginning of the month, significantly more of this product was exported from Ukraine in June than in the first quarter on average. The main driver was high export prices: in the EU — $7,300–7,500/ton (FCA), in Moldova — at least $7,000/ton.
At the same time, in the second half of June, domestic prices for oil continued to rise.
“Despite the decline in production compared to May, oil production in July is expected to be significantly higher than last year,” Infagro predicts.
As of July 7, Ukraine had exported 77,000 tons of grains and legumes since the start of the 2025/26 marketing year (July-June), according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of July 5 last year, total shipments amounted to 1.131 million tons.
At the same time, in terms of crops, since the beginning of the current season, 25,000 tons of wheat (320,000 tons in 2024/25 MY) and 0 tons of barley (134,000 tons) were exported, while corn exports amounted to 51,000 tons (673,000 tons).
Total exports of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of July 7 are estimated at 0.8 thousand tons (in 2024/25 MY – 1.8 thousand tons), including wheat flour – 0.8 thousand tons (1.7 thousand tons).
In January-May 2025, imports of tin and tin products to Ukraine increased by 70.5% to $1.739 million. In May, products worth $568 thousand were imported.
At the same time, tin exports decreased by 41.1% to $86 thousand compared to $146 thousand last year. In May, exports amounted to $30 thousand.
For the whole of 2024, tin imports increased by 16.9% to $3.188 million, while exports increased by 2.5 times to $389 thousand. In 2023, imports amounted to $2.728 million, while exports amounted to $159 thousand.
In January-May 2025, Ukraine imported zinc and zinc products worth $21.319 million, down 8.1% compared to the same period in 2024. In May, imports amounted to $6.237 million.
Exports of zinc products increased to $523 thousand against $84 thousand in the first five months of 2024. In May 2025, $113 thousand were exported.
In 2024, zinc imports reached $58.610 million (+27.5% compared to 2023), while exports amounted to $563 thousand. In 2023, imports were $45.966 million and exports were $130 thousand.
In January-May this year, Ukraine increased exports of processed pig iron in physical terms by 45.2% compared to the same period last year, up to 736,418 thousand tons from 507,106 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS) on Friday, pig iron exports in monetary terms increased by 53.2% to $290.546 million during the period under review.
At the same time, exports were carried out mainly to the United States (79.11% of supplies in monetary terms), Italy (10.23%) and Turkey (5.90%).
In the first 5 months of the year, the country imported 29 thousand tons worth $55 thousand from Brazil (68.52%) and Germany (31.48%), while in January-May 2024, 15 tons of pig iron were imported for $35 thousand.
As reported, on March 12 this year, the United States began levying a 25% duty on imports of Ukrainian steel products, except for pig iron, in accordance with President Donald Trump’s decision.
In 2024, Ukraine reduced exports of processed pig iron by 3.4% in physical terms compared to 2023, to 1 million 290.622 thousand tons, and by 6.1% in monetary terms, to $500.341 million. Exports were mainly to the United States (72.64% of supplies in monetary terms), Turkey (8.03%) and Italy (7.30%).
In 2024, the country imported 38 tons of pig iron worth $90 thousand from Germany, while in the same period of 2023 it imported 154 tons of pig iron worth $156 thousand.