As of November 6, 2026, offer prices for imported liquefied gas at the Polish-Ukrainian border exceeded $1,500 per metric ton, while at southern border crossings, the wholesale price of the resource approached a similar level.
The A-95 Consulting Group reported this on November 6, noting that the price increase is linked to a reduction in global propane and butane supply, changes in international trade flows, and rising logistics costs.
According to analysts, the deterioration of the situation in the global liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market is driven by reduced production in the Persian Gulf countries and disruptions to maritime shipments resulting from attacks on civilian vessels.
This has led to a decline in exports from the Middle East, which traditionally supplies a significant portion of Asian consumers’ needs.
As a result, Asian countries have intensified competition with European importers for American liquefied gas, causing a further increase in international prices.
According to “A-95,” in October 2026, 568,000 metric tons of liquefied natural gas were shipped from the U.S. to Northwestern Europe, which is 17% less than during the same period last year.
Amid the supply shortage, October prices for propane in the region rose by $173 per metric ton, while butane prices increased by $345 per metric ton.
A similar trend is observed in the Mediterranean market, where prices set by the Algerian energy company Sonatrach remain one of the key price benchmarks.
Specifically, in October, Sonatrach’s propane prices rose by $155 per metric ton, while butane prices increased by $300 per metric ton.
For Ukraine, the situation is complicated by a shortage of the resource in the markets of neighboring European countries, primarily Romania, Poland, and Lithuania.
These countries remain the main sources of imported automotive gas, so the rise in their domestic prices directly affects the purchase cost of fuel for Ukrainian traders.
Additional factors driving up prices include security risks associated with maritime transport in the Black Sea and long wait times for road transport at border crossings.
According to estimates by “A-95,” current wholesale prices are setting the stage for a further increase in the retail price of autogas in Ukraine.
In October, the average price of this fuel at Ukrainian gas stations rose by 13.75 UAH/liter to 57.66 UAH/liter, and by early November, it had approached 60 UAH/liter.
Experts do not rule out that in the second half of November, prices at certain gas station chains could reach 66 UAH/liter if high import prices persist.
Sonatrach is Algeria’s state-owned oil and gas company and one of Africa’s leading producers and exporters of energy resources. Its price benchmarks for propane and butane are used by participants in the Mediterranean liquefied gas market.
The Polish oil refining group ORLEN supplied 75,000 metric tons of automotive gasoline to Ukraine in October 2026, accounting for about 48% of total monthly imports, which amounted to 156,000 metric tons, the “A-95” Consulting Group reported in a press release dated November 4.
According to analysts, ORLEN’s shipments in September totaled about 70,000 metric tons. Thus, the group increased its shipment volumes and maintained its status as the largest corporate supplier of gasoline to Ukraine.
ORLEN owns oil refining facilities in Poland and Lithuania, which remain the two largest sources of automotive gasoline for the Ukrainian market.
In October, Ukraine imported 50,000 metric tons of gasoline directly from Lithuania, or approximately 32% of the total volume. Poland supplied another 40,000 metric tons, or about 26%.
Together, these two countries accounted for 90,000 metric tons of gasoline, representing nearly 58% of total October imports.
Romania became the third-largest supplier, with 35,000 metric tons. According to previously published data from “A-95,” 30,100 metric tons of gasoline were imported from that country in September.
Shipments from Germany increased to 20,000 metric tons in October. The UPG network was the main Ukrainian importer from this source, accounting for 14,000 metric tons.
At the same time, gasoline supplies from Greece fell to 4,000 metric tons.
From January through October 2026, Lithuania supplied 460,000 metric tons of automotive gasoline to Ukraine, compared to 380,000 metric tons during the same period last year. This represents a 21.1% increase.
Poland increased its shipments by 7.4%, to 290,000 metric tons; Romania by 16.7%, to 280,000 metric tons; and Germany by 12.5%, to 180,000 metric tons.
Gasoline imports from Greece rose from 80,000 to 110,000 metric tons over the ten-month period, or by 37.5%.
In contrast, supplies from Moldova fell from 90,000 to 70,000 metric tons, or by 22.2%.
In total, the four largest supplier countries—Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Germany—provided 1.21 million metric tons of gasoline, or 85.2% of Ukraine’s total imports over the ten-month period.
This supply structure demonstrates the important role of European oil refineries and logistics routes in supplying the Ukrainian fuel market.
At the same time, the concentration of imports on a few main routes underscores the importance of transport infrastructure stability and the diversification of supply channels for petroleum products.
In total, Ukraine imported 1.42 million metric tons of motor gasoline in January–October 2026, which is 12% more than during the corresponding period in 2025.
According to a forecast by the “A-95” Consulting Group, an increase in generator demand will contribute to a further rise in gasoline supplies by the end of the year.
ORLEN is a Polish energy group specializing in oil refining, the production and sale of petroleum products, as well as operations in the gas and energy sectors. The group operates oil refineries in several European countries.
Source: “A-95” Consulting Group, final press release dated November 4, 2026; official website.
Ukraine imported 1.42 million metric tons of automotive gasoline in January–October 2026, which is 12% more than during the same period last year, according to the “A-95” Consulting Group, based on the results of a fuel market study released on November 4.
According to the company, gasoline imports in October alone totaled 156,000 metric tons, which is 7% less than in October 2025.
At the same time, compared to September 2026, when imports totaled 145,000 metric tons, October imports increased by approximately 7.6%.
Thus, following a decline in import volumes in September, Ukrainian fuel market operators once again increased their gasoline purchases, although on a year-over-year basis, October’s imports remained lower than last year’s.
The “A-95” Consulting Group attributes the increase in supplies to so-called “generator demand,” which arises from the use of autonomous power sources by businesses, retail outlets, the service sector, and the general public.
“Gasoline remains the only motor fuel category for which the market is fully balanced. The increase in imports in October mirrors last year’s trend, driven by so-called generator demand,” A-95 noted.
According to analysts’ estimates, gasoline supplies to Ukraine will continue to rise through the end of 2026.
The main gasoline-supplying countries in October remained Lithuania, Poland, and Romania. Lithuania supplied 50,000 metric tons of fuel, Poland supplied 40,000 metric tons, and Romania supplied 35,000 metric tons.
These three countries accounted for about 80% of total October imports of automotive gasoline.
Among the largest importers, the OKKO network led the way, importing 45,000 metric tons of gasoline. Ukrnafta and WOG each imported 26,000 metric tons, while UPG imported about 22,000 metric tons.
Over the first ten months of 2026, motor gasoline imports exceeded last year’s figure by approximately 150,000 metric tons. In January–October 2025, Ukraine imported 1.27 million metric tons of gasoline.
Earlier, “A-95” reported that the decline in imports in September occurred against the backdrop of a seasonal drop in consumption and high retail fuel prices.
Moldova’s Minister of Energy, Dorin Junghiu, stated that the country may purchase some gas from Ukraine, and negotiations are already underway.
“Moldova may purchase between 10 million and 50 million cubic meters of natural gas from Ukraine. The final volume will depend on the availability of surplus reserves and the commercial terms of the deal. Potential purchase volumes will be influenced by both existing contracts and the availability of gas for delivery to Moldova,” the minister said during a broadcast on Radio Moldova on Tuesday.
According to him, this issue was discussed last week during a government delegation’s visit to Kyiv, after which Moldova conducted a test purchase of gas, importing 2 million cubic meters.
Jungietu declined to specify a possible gas price or the formula for calculating it, so as not to influence the course of negotiations: “These are commercial negotiations, and we cannot disclose the pricing formula at this time. The purchase must be commercially advantageous for Moldova. Negotiations are ongoing; we want to secure a price below market value. That is the current situation.”
So far, the authorities have not announced the signing of a contract, the final price of the gas, or the timing of potential deliveries.
According to the Minister of Energy, in the future, Moldova will be able to cover approximately one-quarter of its daily natural gas consumption through supplies from the Romanian Neptun Deep field in the Black Sea once production begins, which is expected in late 2027.
“The gas will be purchased under a contract signed last year between Energocom and the Romanian company OMV Petrom. The volumes were made public last year. We’re talking about roughly a quarter of our daily gas consumption. The pricing formula is also based on exchange indicators but includes a discount. Of course, we cannot disclose the size of the discount, since this is not so much a matter of confidentiality as it is a matter of revealing Energocom’s procurement strategy, which is undesirable,” stated Dorin Jungietu.
According to him, another advantage of supplies from “Neptun Deep” is lower transportation costs, which could help lower rates for end consumers.
On May 7, 2025, the state-owned company Energocom signed a three-year contract with OMV Petrom to purchase natural gas from Neptun Deep.
The newly adopted law (No. 16051-1) abolishing the value-added tax exemption for international postal shipments valued at up to EUR150 will negatively impact the operations of Ukrainian retailers, importers, and manufacturers, according to Volodymyr Poperechnyuk, co-founder of Ukraine’s largest postal and logistics operator, Nova Poshta.
“People won’t stop importing; they’ll just spend more money. Among other things, they’ll spend money on import brokerage services, which ‘Nova Poshta’ will provide. But there will be less money for retail,” Poperesnyuk said during the event “Business and New Challenges: Dialogues with NV” in Kyiv on Friday.
In his view, there is virtually no alternative to imports, since 99% of goods are produced globally, while Ukraine accounts for only 0.2% of the world’s population.
On Facebook, Poperechnyuk emphasized that instead of raising taxes, Ukraine needs to lower them, as well as pursue deregulation and privatization.
“Our defense capability, development, and true independence directly depend on the business environment,” Poperechnyuk noted.
As previously reported, on October 15, on its third attempt, the Verkhovna Rada adopted in the second reading and as a whole Bill No. 16051-1 on amendments to the Tax Code regarding VAT on e-commerce transactions, which repeals the tax exemption for international postal shipments valued at up to EUR150.
The implementation of the law’s provisions, in conjunction with amendments to the Customs Code (Bill No. 15460) is a condition for Ukraine to receive the next tranche under the program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of approximately $0.7 billion and the second tranche of macro-financial assistance from the European Union of EUR3.7 billion as part of the EUR90 billion Loan to Support Ukraine. Under the updated memorandum with the IMF, Ukraine was required to adopt this law by July 2026, and under the initial version—by the end of March, along with other tax regulations—but this structural milestone was not met.
The law provides for the introduction of special VAT rules for distance sales of goods (excluding excise goods) imported via international postal and express shipments to individuals, valued at up to EUR150, where e-commerce platforms or their intermediaries are designated as responsible for calculating and paying the tax.
At the same time, the VAT exemption remains in place for small, non-commercial shipments valued at up to EUR45 sent from individuals to individuals free of charge, as well as for goods in unaccompanied baggage valued at up to EUR150 and goods for security and defense (energy equipment and goods for the defense forces).
Prior to the first reading, during the presentation of the bill, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko noted that the implementation of these provisions would generate approximately 10 billion UAH in additional revenue for the state budget annually.
In January–September 2026, Ukraine imported 34,270 metric tons of manganese ore worth $5.309 million, whereas during the same period in 2025, there were no imports of this raw material, according to statistics from the State Customs Service.
In the first nine months of this year, the physical volume of imports has already reached 92.6% of the total for all of 2025. Last year, Ukraine purchased 37,006 thousand metric tons of manganese ore abroad for $5.546 million, with all shipments taking place in November.
Imports in 2026 picked up significantly in August and September. While Ukraine imported approximately 10,900 metric tons of ore over the first seven months, imports rose to 23,099 metric tons over eight months and to 34,270 metric tons over nine months.
Thus, in September alone, the country imported 11,171 metric tons of manganese ore with an estimated value of $1.731 million. In August, imports totaled approximately 12,198 metric tons, meaning they declined by about 8.4% in September.
Ghana was the main supplier of manganese ore to Ukraine in 2025. In January–July 2026, it also accounted for virtually the entire volume of imports: 10,896 thousand metric tons worth $1.677 million. Another approximately 5 metric tons worth $3 thousand were imported from China. The geography of shipments for the full nine months requires clarification based on detailed customs statistics.
At the same time, Ukraine is increasing its own exports of manganese ore. In January–September 2026, 36,598 thousand metric tons of ore worth $6,393 million were shipped abroad.
Thus, the physical volume of exports over the nine-month period exceeded imports by only 2,328 thousand metric tons, and the trade surplus for this commodity group amounted to approximately $1,084 million.
The estimated average customs value of imported manganese ore was about $155 per metric ton, while that of exported ore was $175 per metric ton. However, without information on the chemical composition and quality of the raw materials, these figures cannot be used for a direct comparison of market prices.
The increase in imports is occurring as some Ukrainian ferroalloy plants resume operations following a production shutdown in 2023.
The Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia ferroalloy plants suspended ferroalloy smelting at the end of 2023 following the cessation of manganese ore mining at the Pokrovsk and Marganets mining and processing complexes. In the summer of 2024, the ferroalloy plants partially resumed production.
Manganese ore is the primary raw material for the production of ferromanganese and silicomanganese, which are used in ferrous metallurgy for deoxidizing and alloying steel. At the same time, foreign trade statistics alone do not allow us to determine what proportion of the imported ore was actually processed by Ukrainian enterprises.
