International rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised its estimates of the cost of iron ore, base metals and coal in the short and medium term, which it uses in its forecasts of operating activities and financial performance of companies in the sector.
The increase in the outlook for copper prices is due to expectations of tight global market conditions. The opening of the Chinese economy will lead to an increase in demand in the near future, as that country accounts for about 55% of global refined copper consumption. In addition, in the medium and long term, demand will be supported by the energy transition. That said, supply of the metal may be constrained by factors such as deteriorating mine productivity in Chile and political protests in Peru.
“We have raised our iron ore price forecast for 2023-2025 as stronger demand from the steel sector in Europe, North America and several Asian countries will offset a gradual decline in Chinese steel production,” the agency said in a statement. – Problems with iron ore supply in Brazil, South Africa and Ukraine will support prices in the short and medium term.
Fitch analysts kept estimates for aluminum prices unchanged except for 2025. “CRU forecasts that global aluminum inventories will remain at about 50 days in the coming years, indicating a market equilibrium,” the report said.
According to CRU, a rebound in demand from China amid lower production in Peru should reduce the global zinc surplus to 100,000 tons in 2023 from 420,000 tons last year. As a result, Fitch revised its price forecast for this metal for the current year.
The increase in estimates of the cost of gold in 2023-2025. “reflects the metal’s investment status in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about economic growth, as well as price resilience despite rising interest rates,” the agency said in a review.
The upward revision of nickel price forecast is due to, among other things, the recovery of stainless steel production in China.
Mining companies in Ukraine in January this year, reduced the export of iron ore raw materials (iron ore) in physical terms by 75.9% compared to the same period last year – up to 927.433 thousand tons.
According to the statistics, released by the State Customs Service (SCS), during this period, foreign currency revenues from exports of iron ore decreased by 67% to $110.857 million.
Exports of iron ore products were mainly to Slovakia (28.65% of supplies in monetary terms), the Czech Republic (28.55%) and Austria (20.06%).
Last month Ukraine imported iron ore products for $1 thousand in the total amount of 2 tons, whereas in January-2021 there were imported also $1 thousand in the amount of 1 thousand tons. Imports in January-2023 were from Italy (100%).
As reported, in 2022, Ukraine reduced exports of iron ore products in physical terms by 45.9% compared to the previous year – up to 23 million 984.623 thousand tons, foreign exchange earnings decreased by 57.8% to $2 billion 912.974 million.
Exports of iron ore products was carried out mainly to Slovakia (19.23% in monetary terms), Czech Republic (17.32%) and Poland (16.49%).
Last year Ukraine imported iron ore to the amount of $65 thousand in total 101 tons, while in 2021 – $184 thousand in the amount of 1.202 tons.
Imports were carried out from Norway (36.92%), the Netherlands (27.69%) and the UK (16.92%).
Sukhaya Balka mine (Krivoy Rog, Dnipropetrovsk region), which belongs to Alexander Yaroslavskyy DCH group, is going to increase production of iron ore and shipment of products by 30%, for which it switches to a three-shift from two-shift work mode.
According to the corporate newspaper DCH Steel, the company was forced to switch to a two-shift operation since April 2022 because of the war, destruction of supply chains and decreasing demand for the products.
At the same time, since last July the working week was 4 days, and since October – 3 days. In December, due to a significant decrease in electricity consumption and sales of commercial products it was decided to suspend the technological process at the Frunze mine. Frunze mine.
According to Igor Piltek, chief engineer of the mine, now there is a positive trend in sales of commercial products, so it was decided to increase production volumes by 30%.
“Since the beginning of the month the employees involved in the main technological processes have been restored to work in three shifts of seven working hours,” the director of human resources and social issues of the enterprise, Ivan Maly, was quoted by the newspaper as saying.
Sukhaya Balka is one of the leading mining companies in Ukraine. It mines iron ore using the underground method. The mine includes the Yubileynaya and Frunze mines. Frunze. DCH Group acquired the mine from Evraz Group in May 2017.
In January 2023 “Ukrzaliznytsia” (UZ) increased the volume of transportation of iron ore by 45% compared to December 2022 – up to 1.14 million tons, Deputy Director of Commercial Work Department of UZ Valery Tkachev said at a meeting of the Office of the exporters at UZ.
“After April (last year – IF), when 2.3 million tons of ore were transported, the volumes decreased: in November-December they dropped to 770-780 thousand tons in export traffic. However, January (this year) is very good news: we have already transported 358 thousand tons more, i.e. 1.14 million tons. The ore is 45% January to December,” he said.
Tkachev added that the positive dynamics of the ore will remain in February.
According to him, in January this year, the volume of transportation of ferrous metals increased by 2.1 times (+202.3 thousand tons) compared to the previous month – up to 380 thousand tons. “And this is also very encouraging”, – said Tkachev.
According to him, the transportation of cement has also increased. “But in October-November and December 2022 we already transported more than in the same months of 2021, which also shows the positive dynamics”, – Ukrzaliznytsia representative stated.
In particular, in October 2022 the volume of cement transportation was 87 thousand tons (against 85 thousand tons in 2021), in November – 83 thousand tons (66 thousand tons respectively), in December – 70 thousand tons (49 thousand tons). In January 2023 the volume of traffic decreased to 54 thousand tons, which is still higher than in January 2022 – 29 thousand tons.
UZ notes that the demand for cement greatly stimulated its consumption of sleeper plants UZ, which increased production in 2022 by 4.7 times – up to 832 thousand sleepers.
Tkachev also said that the volume of sunflower oil transportation from 20 thousand tons in March 2022 rose in January to almost 134 thousand tons, or 6.7 times, half of all exports of sunflower oil in the past month through the ports on the “grain corridor”.
The deputy director of the department said that in January 58% of all export cargo shipped by UZ, or 3 million tons, fell to the grain, while the second place – iron ore with 22%.
As reported, in January this year compared to December last year, the total volume of transportation by UZ increased by 11% – to 11.29 million tons. In 2022 it was more than halved compared to 2021 – to 150.6 million tons from 314.3 million tons.
UZ today uses 13 railway crossings, which border the EU countries and Moldova. In January the most cargo went through Izov-Hrubeshuv – 0.8 million tons, or 16%. However, port stations are further among the largest export cargo transportation points: Odessa-Port and Chornomorsk-TIS – 13% each, Chornomorsk-Port – 10%, followed by neighboring Uzhgorod – 8%, Chop and Batevo – 7% each.
Krivoy Rog iron ore complex (KZHRK) in January-November this year reduced the production of marketable iron ore underground mining by 28.9% compared to the same period last year – up to 2.804 million tons.
According to the company, in November, the mine “Pokrovskaya” produced 20 thousand tons of iron ore products, “Krivoy Rog” – 27 thousand tons, “Kozatskaya” – 28 thousand tons and “Ternovskaya” – 30 thousand tons.
The total output of the plant last month was 105 thous. tons, while in October – 150 thous. tons, in September – 200 thous. tons, in August – 270 thous. tons, in July – 280 thous. tons.
As reported, KZHRK in 2021 increased the production of iron ore from underground mining by 12.7% compared to 2020 – up to 4.298 million tons.
KZHRK specializes in underground mining of iron ore. KZHRK has four mines: “Pokrovska” (formerly “October”), mine “Krivorizka” (“Rodina”), “Kozatska” (formerly “Gvardeyskaya”) and “Ternovskaya” (formerly the Ordzhonikidze mine, then named after Lenin).
Starmill Limited owns 99.88% of the company.
KZHRK is owned by Metinvest Group and Privat Group. The company’s operational management is carried out by Privat Group.
Mining company Rio Tinto PLC plans to create another, larger, plant to process iron ore for subsequent steel smelting, operating on raw biomass instead of coking coal.
The decision was made after the success of the first pilot project implemented in Germany, writes MarketWatch. The project has been running for the past 18 months in conjunction with Finland’s Metso Outotec and the University of Nottingham.
“The results of the first test phase are very promising,” said Rio Tinto Chief Commercial Officer Alf Barrios.
The location of the new plant has not yet been selected.
The steel industry accounts for 8 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions, MarketWatch noted. Creating yellow ore processing plants using biomass instead of coal would help Rio Tinto’s plans to reduce emissions.
