The National Bank reduced the sale of foreign currency on the interbank market last week by $221.77 million, or 41.4% – to $314.4 million, according to the regulator’s statistics on its website.
According to it, the National Bank even bought $10 million on the market last week, the last time it was in early March, while in general, since the beginning of the year, the purchase amounted to $33.5 million against $10.24 billion of sales.
Thus, net foreign exchange interventions of the NBU over the past week fell by 43.2% to $304.4m.
The data, which the regulator has managed to make public during this time, indicate a change in the situation on the cash market of currency: for the first time since the beginning of the year, the sale of currency exceeded the purchase. From $19.7 million on Monday, the net balance of sales decreased to $8.3 million on Tuesday, $1.2 million on Wednesday and $3.0 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia/$1 exchange rate was volatile last week: from 41.3879 UAH/$1 on Monday, it strengthened to 41.1753 UAH/$1 on Wednesday before weakening again to 41.3955 UAH/$1 at the end of the week.
On the cash market, the hryvnia depreciated by 10-14 kopecks over the week as the margin widened: the buying rate went to UAH 40.95/$1, while the selling rate went to UAH 41.10/$1.
As analysts of KYT Group note, in early April the currency market of Ukraine continued to demonstrate relative stability in the dollar segment and noticeable strengthening of the euro: the dollar rate is declining under the influence of external weakness of the U.S. dollar, while the euro rate is growing both due to the global trend and structural demand for the Euro currency in Ukraine.
“In general, the Ukrainian currency market is characterized by growing liquidity, narrowing spreads and decreasing volatility against the dollar, which is evidence of the formation of relative predictability of further exchange rate trajectories,” KYT Group believes.
They noted that in the domestic market, the rates of purchase and sale have come close to the official rate of the NBU: market rates of both purchase and sale of the dollar began to move almost synchronously with the official, without significant deviations and equidistant from the official – +\- 25 kopecks, which reduces market volatility.
“In the short term (2-4 weeks), the dollar exchange rate is likely to move smoothly in the range of 41.10-41.80 UAH/$ with possible adjustments within 20-30 kopecks, associated with situational demand”, – predicted in KYT Group.
In their opinion, the medium-term perspective (2-4 months) provides for the possibility of returning to the range of 41.80-42.50 UAH/$ in case of inflation growth, import activity or pressure on the budget.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects a significant increase in grain, oilseeds and vegetable harvests in 2025, in the range of 10-17%.
“As for grains, we expect a 12% increase in harvests, 10% in oilseeds, and 17% in vegetables and potatoes,” said NBU Deputy Governor Sergiy Nikolaychuk at a press briefing on Thursday.
According to him, spring frosts and potentially prolonged periods of drought could negatively affect the yields of certain crops and put some pressure on prices, and this is considered a risk.
At the same time, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, there is no significant damage to crops from frost, the NBU Deputy Governor noted.
“Therefore, I would like to reiterate our thesis that a significant slowdown in food inflation in the second half of the year is one of the important factors behind the overall slowdown in inflation in the second half of the year. And, in fact, this is our baseline scenario,” Mr. Nikolaychuk emphasized.
According to him, after the prices for agricultural products rose quite significantly last year, the potential for further price increases, even if negative risks materialize, will be limited by the relevant imports.
The NBU deputy governor added that the current harvest forecast is not much different from the one published in January.
Mr. Nikolaychuk emphasized that according to the operational data coming from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, no serious damage to crops due to frost has been recorded so far.
As reported, this year’s planting season is 20.6% behind last year’s. As of April 11, Ukraine sowed more than 1 million hectares of spring grains and legumes.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased sales of foreign currency on the interbank market last week by $144.27 million, or 36.8%, to $536.17 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the statistics, the National Bank bought only $0.06 million last week, compared to $6.63 million a week ago.
The data that the regulator managed to publish during this time shows that the negative balance between the volume of currency purchases by the population and the volume of its sales last week was volatile: from $16.6 million over the weekend and Monday, the amount increased to $22.1 million on Tuesday and $24.2 million on Wednesday, but on Thursday it fell to $17.2 million.
Along with the increase in interventions, the official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar weakened by 19 kopecks to 41.3879 UAH/$1 last week.
On the cash market, the dollar also rose in price, but much less: from the level of 40.87-41.00, it reached a local peak of 41.16-41.30 UAH/$1 on April 10, but then the hryvnia strengthened to 40.95-41.10 UAH/$1.
As reported, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $42.4 billion as of April 1, 2025, up 5.6%, or $2.23 billion, from a month ago.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has added four insurance and/or reinsurance brokers to the Register of Insurance Intermediaries in accordance with the electronic applications submitted by them.
According to the NBU website, the following companies have been included in the said register: Insurance Broker Yutiar LLC, Aston Ukraine LLC, Representative Office of Yueidibibi Pragma Insurance Brokers, Representative Office of Marsh Europe C. A.” (all Kiev).
In addition, the National Bank has excluded these companies from the State Register of Insurance and Reinsurance Brokers and canceled the certificate of their inclusion in this register.
The relevant decisions were made by the Committee on Supervision and Regulation of Non-banking Financial Services Markets on March 27, 2025.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased sales of foreign currency on the interbank market last week by $98.4 million, or 18%, to $643.6 million, according to the regulator’s statistics on its website.
According to the statistics, the central bank has not bought any foreign currency over the past two weeks.
Last week, the National Bank bought the most foreign currency since the beginning of March, but it is still less than in February this year and roughly equal to the amount of foreign currency purchased in the same week in March last year.
Data released by the regulator during this time show that the negative balance between the volume of foreign currency purchases by households and the volume of foreign currency sales narrowed last week from $26.89 million on Monday to $20.24 on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate weakened by 2 kopecks to 41.5277 UAH/$1 over the week.
The same was the case on the cash market, with a narrow spread of 41.46-41.56 UAH/$1.
‘Since the beginning of March, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market has undergone significant changes in the dynamics of the dollar. While in February the dollar was gradually strengthening, in early March it began to decline, followed by a gradual recovery after 10 March,’ analysts of the currency exchange market operator KYT Group commented on the market situation in their March review.
According to them, the Ukrainian cash FX market was affected by a decline in demand for the dollar following a large-scale import of cash currency in February: according to the NBU, $1.316 billion in cash dollars and the equivalent of $450 million in euros were imported into Ukraine.
The NBU’s interventions help to smooth out exchange rate volatility and maintain a controlled situation on the market, but the increase in budget spending in March traditionally creates additional demand for foreign currency, which may affect the correction of the hryvnia exchange rate, KYT Group experts added. They expect that in the short term, over the next 1-3 weeks, the dollar is likely to remain in the range of UAH 41.30-42.30/$1.
As reported, the NBU’s net interventions in February fell to $3bn from $3.75bn in January.
In February 2025, Ukrainians’ purchases of foreign currency exceeded sales by $0.95bn, which is also down from $1.48bn in January this year.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of 1 March 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $40.15 billion, which is 6.7%, or $2.86 billion, less than a month ago.
The Cabinet of Ministers has set the average annual rate of the official hryvnia/US dollar exchange rate in the 2025 state budget at 45 UAH/$1.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1058312.html
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar by 12 kopecks after the official hryvnia/US dollar exchange rate rose by 8 kopecks on Thursday. – to 41.4313 UAH/$1, according to data on the regulator’s website.
“The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain within the range of 41.50-42.20 UAH/$1. The main factors that will influence the market will be the NBU’s decision on the discount rate on March 6 and the US Fed policy,” analysts at currency exchange market operator KYT Group shared their expectations for the coming weeks in their February review.
In their opinion, the hryvnia may gradually weaken in spring, in particular, if the foreign trade deficit grows. Analysts forecast an average corridor for the U.S. dollar in the range of UAH 42.50-44.00/$1.
“The main risks remain possible delays in international financial assistance and the growth of the budget deficit,” KYT Group said.
The hryvnia-US dollar exchange rate will be at 44.50-45.50 UAH/$1 by the end of the year, experts believe.
The NBU set the reference rate at 41.4341 UAH/$1 at 12:00 Friday against 41.5274 UAH/$1 on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the dollar in the cash market has fallen in price today: when buying its rate decreased by 3 copecks, to 41.53 UAH/$1, and when selling – by 1 copeck, to 41.64 UAH/$1.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers has set the average annual indicator of the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar in the state budget of 2025 at the level of UAH 45/$1.
In the 2024 budget, the government budgeted an annual average of 40.7 UAH/$1, and at the end of the year – 42.1 UAH/$1. The hryvnia weakened by 10.6% or UAH 4.02 to UAH 42.0390/$1 at the official exchange rate last year.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $43 billion 3.1 million, in January they decreased by 1.8%, or $785 million, and net international reserves (NIR) – by $0.79 billion, or 2.7% – to $28.313 billion.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1051560.html
