The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects a significant increase in grain, oilseeds and vegetable harvests in 2025, in the range of 10-17%.
“As for grains, we expect a 12% increase in harvests, 10% in oilseeds, and 17% in vegetables and potatoes,” said NBU Deputy Governor Sergiy Nikolaychuk at a press briefing on Thursday.
According to him, spring frosts and potentially prolonged periods of drought could negatively affect the yields of certain crops and put some pressure on prices, and this is considered a risk.
At the same time, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, there is no significant damage to crops from frost, the NBU Deputy Governor noted.
“Therefore, I would like to reiterate our thesis that a significant slowdown in food inflation in the second half of the year is one of the important factors behind the overall slowdown in inflation in the second half of the year. And, in fact, this is our baseline scenario,” Mr. Nikolaychuk emphasized.
According to him, after the prices for agricultural products rose quite significantly last year, the potential for further price increases, even if negative risks materialize, will be limited by the relevant imports.
The NBU deputy governor added that the current harvest forecast is not much different from the one published in January.
Mr. Nikolaychuk emphasized that according to the operational data coming from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, no serious damage to crops due to frost has been recorded so far.
As reported, this year’s planting season is 20.6% behind last year’s. As of April 11, Ukraine sowed more than 1 million hectares of spring grains and legumes.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased sales of foreign currency on the interbank market last week by $144.27 million, or 36.8%, to $536.17 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the statistics, the National Bank bought only $0.06 million last week, compared to $6.63 million a week ago.
The data that the regulator managed to publish during this time shows that the negative balance between the volume of currency purchases by the population and the volume of its sales last week was volatile: from $16.6 million over the weekend and Monday, the amount increased to $22.1 million on Tuesday and $24.2 million on Wednesday, but on Thursday it fell to $17.2 million.
Along with the increase in interventions, the official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar weakened by 19 kopecks to 41.3879 UAH/$1 last week.
On the cash market, the dollar also rose in price, but much less: from the level of 40.87-41.00, it reached a local peak of 41.16-41.30 UAH/$1 on April 10, but then the hryvnia strengthened to 40.95-41.10 UAH/$1.
As reported, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $42.4 billion as of April 1, 2025, up 5.6%, or $2.23 billion, from a month ago.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has added four insurance and/or reinsurance brokers to the Register of Insurance Intermediaries in accordance with the electronic applications submitted by them.
According to the NBU website, the following companies have been included in the said register: Insurance Broker Yutiar LLC, Aston Ukraine LLC, Representative Office of Yueidibibi Pragma Insurance Brokers, Representative Office of Marsh Europe C. A.” (all Kiev).
In addition, the National Bank has excluded these companies from the State Register of Insurance and Reinsurance Brokers and canceled the certificate of their inclusion in this register.
The relevant decisions were made by the Committee on Supervision and Regulation of Non-banking Financial Services Markets on March 27, 2025.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased sales of foreign currency on the interbank market last week by $98.4 million, or 18%, to $643.6 million, according to the regulator’s statistics on its website.
According to the statistics, the central bank has not bought any foreign currency over the past two weeks.
Last week, the National Bank bought the most foreign currency since the beginning of March, but it is still less than in February this year and roughly equal to the amount of foreign currency purchased in the same week in March last year.
Data released by the regulator during this time show that the negative balance between the volume of foreign currency purchases by households and the volume of foreign currency sales narrowed last week from $26.89 million on Monday to $20.24 on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate weakened by 2 kopecks to 41.5277 UAH/$1 over the week.
The same was the case on the cash market, with a narrow spread of 41.46-41.56 UAH/$1.
‘Since the beginning of March, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market has undergone significant changes in the dynamics of the dollar. While in February the dollar was gradually strengthening, in early March it began to decline, followed by a gradual recovery after 10 March,’ analysts of the currency exchange market operator KYT Group commented on the market situation in their March review.
According to them, the Ukrainian cash FX market was affected by a decline in demand for the dollar following a large-scale import of cash currency in February: according to the NBU, $1.316 billion in cash dollars and the equivalent of $450 million in euros were imported into Ukraine.
The NBU’s interventions help to smooth out exchange rate volatility and maintain a controlled situation on the market, but the increase in budget spending in March traditionally creates additional demand for foreign currency, which may affect the correction of the hryvnia exchange rate, KYT Group experts added. They expect that in the short term, over the next 1-3 weeks, the dollar is likely to remain in the range of UAH 41.30-42.30/$1.
As reported, the NBU’s net interventions in February fell to $3bn from $3.75bn in January.
In February 2025, Ukrainians’ purchases of foreign currency exceeded sales by $0.95bn, which is also down from $1.48bn in January this year.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of 1 March 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $40.15 billion, which is 6.7%, or $2.86 billion, less than a month ago.
The Cabinet of Ministers has set the average annual rate of the official hryvnia/US dollar exchange rate in the 2025 state budget at 45 UAH/$1.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1058312.html
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar by 12 kopecks after the official hryvnia/US dollar exchange rate rose by 8 kopecks on Thursday. – to 41.4313 UAH/$1, according to data on the regulator’s website.
“The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain within the range of 41.50-42.20 UAH/$1. The main factors that will influence the market will be the NBU’s decision on the discount rate on March 6 and the US Fed policy,” analysts at currency exchange market operator KYT Group shared their expectations for the coming weeks in their February review.
In their opinion, the hryvnia may gradually weaken in spring, in particular, if the foreign trade deficit grows. Analysts forecast an average corridor for the U.S. dollar in the range of UAH 42.50-44.00/$1.
“The main risks remain possible delays in international financial assistance and the growth of the budget deficit,” KYT Group said.
The hryvnia-US dollar exchange rate will be at 44.50-45.50 UAH/$1 by the end of the year, experts believe.
The NBU set the reference rate at 41.4341 UAH/$1 at 12:00 Friday against 41.5274 UAH/$1 on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the dollar in the cash market has fallen in price today: when buying its rate decreased by 3 copecks, to 41.53 UAH/$1, and when selling – by 1 copeck, to 41.64 UAH/$1.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers has set the average annual indicator of the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar in the state budget of 2025 at the level of UAH 45/$1.
In the 2024 budget, the government budgeted an annual average of 40.7 UAH/$1, and at the end of the year – 42.1 UAH/$1. The hryvnia weakened by 10.6% or UAH 4.02 to UAH 42.0390/$1 at the official exchange rate last year.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $43 billion 3.1 million, in January they decreased by 1.8%, or $785 million, and net international reserves (NIR) – by $0.79 billion, or 2.7% – to $28.313 billion.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1051560.html
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar by 17 kopecks on Friday, after the official hryvnia exchange rate was raised by another 7 kopecks at the end of trading on Monday – to 41.5554 UAH/$1, according to the data on the regulator’s website.
The NBU set the reference rate at 41.5959 UAH/$1 at 12:00 p.m. Monday against 41.6644 UAH/$1 on Friday.
“The dollar exchange rate may fluctuate in the range of 41.8-42.5 UAH/$1. The NBU continues to actively restrain sharp fluctuations, as evidenced by the sale of currency from reserves, and large inflationary risks are not expected in the coming month,” analysts at currency exchange market operator KYT Group shared their expectations for the coming weeks in a February review.
However, among the current risks they name further growth of dollar rate in case of change of policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), or sharp fluctuations on external markets, as well as the probability of short-term “jumps” of the rate, as a response to any news about the delay of international aid.
Analysts expect a gradual weakening of the hryvnia to 44 UAH/$1 during the first half of the year, which may be due to increased import purchases in the spring, worsening inflation expectations, and as a consequence, an accelerated weakening of the national currency.
Among other factors of such a forecast is a greater demand for currency in Ukraine due to the expected transition of the Federal Reserve System to a softer interest rate policy. Additional risks, according to KYT Group experts, may be the deterioration of the economic situation, or a shortage of financial aid.
“If the current macroeconomic picture persists, the dollar exchange rate may reach UAH 45/$1 before the end of the year, although this scenario depends entirely on the success of the government’s economic policy and the stability and sufficiency of the inflow of external financing,” the analysts summarized.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers has set the annual average of the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the U.S. dollar in the state budget of 2025 at the level of 45 UAH/$1.
In the 2024 budget, the government budgeted an annual average of 40.7 UAH/$1, and at the end of the year – 42.1 UAH/$1. The hryvnia weakened by 10.6%, or by UAH 4.02 to UAH 42.0390/$1 at the official exchange rate last year.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $43 billion 3.1 million, in January they decreased by 1.8%, or $785 million, and net international reserves (NIR) – by $0.79 billion, or 2.7% – to $28.313 billion.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1047722.html
