Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced sales of dollars on the interbank market by $198.3 million, or 18.1%, to $895.3 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, in the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of buying and selling foreign currency by legal entities decreased to $96.0 million from $100.2 million in the same period a week earlier and totaled $384.1 million.
The negative balance on the FX market for households increased to $43.6 million from $30.9 million the week before last, and on all days, sales of non-cash foreign currency exceeded purchases.
The official hryvnia/dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 42.0567 UAH/$1, weakened to 42.2812 UAH/$1 over three days, but ended the week at 42.2721 UAH/$1.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate last week followed the trajectory of the official rate, and in general, the dollar rose by about 17 kopecks over the week: buying – to 42.12 UAH/$1, and selling – to 42.49 UAH/$1.
At the same time, due to the rise in the euro against the dollar in the global market after the Fed’s decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps), the hryvnia fell more significantly against the euro last week. Thus, the official exchange rate dropped to 49.4678 UAH/$1 from 48.9961 UAH/$1 a week earlier.
“Last week, the currency deficit remained high without any significant changes compared to the first week of December. Despite this, the NBU slightly reduced its interventions, which hints at a temporary reduction of imbalances in the interbank market,” commented the ICU investment group.
According to its experts, the NBU is concerned about the uncertain prospects for international support next year, as there is no final decision on the EU’s reparations loan yet, so the NBU’s future policy will depend on the EU’s decision on the reparations loan.
“In our opinion, it will be positive. Therefore, we expect the NBU to continue to adhere to a conservative exchange rate policy, allowing only a moderate depreciation of the hryvnia both by the end of this year and throughout 2026,” ICU believes.
Analysts of KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market (Liberty Finance LLC), noted that in December the hryvnia was supported by several important factors, one of the most important being the increase in international reserves to a new historical high of $54.75 billion.
“So far, the situation is such that the hryvnia should not experience any sharp jumps, but in the future (as early as 2026), the hryvnia exchange rate will be under pressure from a number of factors, including, in particular, possible difficulties with the receipt of foreign aid (and a decrease in the amount of such aid),” the company said.
According to their short-term forecast for one to two weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate will remain in the basic range of 42.15-42.50 UAH/$1 with possible multidirectional fluctuations, while in the medium term, for two to three months, KYT Group expects the exchange rate to be 42.25-42.95 UAH/$1.
“In Ukraine, the hryvnia will be influenced by several key factors: the continuation of hostilities, the difficult situation in the energy sector, the decline in economic activity, and the stability of financial assistance from creditors and partners,” the company said, adding that the long-term realistic benchmark is 43.4-44.90 UAH/$1 by mid-2026.
As for the euro, according to the company’s experts, if the Fed cuts the rate by 25 bps again in January, the euro will strengthen more actively, and its fluctuations in the Ukrainian market may reach the level of 50.20-53.20 UAH/€1.
Source: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1128490.html
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) fined FINACO Financial Company LLC (Kyiv) UAH 1.28 million for violating the requirements of the law on the prevention and counteraction of money laundering and financial monitoring.
According to a statement on the regulator’s website, the fine is related to the improper implementation of internal documents on AML/CFT issues, shortcomings in the work of the responsible employee, failure to provide reports and documents upon request by the NBU, violation of the risk-based approach, improper verification of clients, as well as violation of the procedure for preparing reports and submitting a list of clients. A separate violation of the established procedure for notifying changes in information was noted.
Along with this, in November 2025, the NBU applied measures of influence to other market participants, including fining Pivdenny Bank UAH 18.5 million, Lviv Bank UAH 200,000, and FC ATLANA LLC UAH 595,000.
The total amount of fines for the month was UAH 20.57 million.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) fined Pivdenny Bank (Odesa) a total of UAH 18.5 million for violations of legislation in the field of preventing and combating money laundering (AML/CFT) and currency legislation.
According to a statement on the regulator’s website, the bank must pay UAH 17.5 million in fines for improper application of a risk-based approach, improper verification of customers, shortcomings in enhanced verification of high-risk customers, and violation of the procedure for providing information in response to NBU requests.
Separately, Pivdenny Bank was fined UAH 1 million for violating currency supervision requirements, in particular for improper analysis of currency transaction documents and failure to identify currency transaction indicators.
In addition, the NBU issued two written warnings to the bank: for deficiencies in internal documents on AML/CFT and risk management, as well as for errors in statistical reporting on currency transactions.
As reported, in November 2025, the NBU applied sanctions to two banks and two non-bank financial institutions, including fines totaling UAH 20.57 million.
The number of insurance companies in Ukraine in October 2025 decreased by one. At the end of the month, 49 risk insurers and 10 life insurance companies, as well as the Export Credit Agency with special status were operating in the market, according to the website of the National Bank of Ukraine.
According to the NBU, the number of insurance and/or reinsurance brokers has not changed – 45. In October, the regulator received 55 inquiries regarding registration and licensing actions of insurers.
In general, the number of non-banking financial market participants for the month decreased to 787 from 791. In the non-banking market, there were 417 financial companies (there were 418), 102 pawnshops (there were 104), 88 credit unions, one lessor and 74 collection companies. The number of non-banking financial groups increased by one – to 42, banking groups unchanged – 16.
The number of banks in Ukraine in October 2025 has not changed and is 60, according to the website of the National Bank of Ukraine.
According to the regulator, the number of banking groups is also unchanged – 16. 15 payment systems created by residents, including state-owned ones, and 10 international payment systems continue to operate in the payment market.
Among payment service providers there are 16 payment institutions (17 a month earlier), 12 financial institutions authorized to provide payment services, one bank – issuer of electronic money, and one postal operator. Other payment market entities include 49 commercial agents and 32 technological payment service providers.
In October, the NBU received 243 requests for registration and licensing actions, including 41 requests for banks, 131 requests for financial companies, pawnshops and lessors, 55 requests for insurers, 14 requests for credit unions and collection companies, and 2 requests for payment institutions.
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its sale of dollars on the interbank market by $131.6 million, or 17.9%, to $602.7 million, while the weakening of the hryvnia slowed to 12.8 kopecks from 37.4 kopecks a week earlier.
According to information from the National Bank, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities increased to $74.2 million from $36.6 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $297 million.
At the same time, on the cash market, on the contrary, there was a decrease in currency purchases by the population: from Saturday to Thursday, the negative balance amounted to $21.3 million against $29.6 million the week before last. The purchase of non-cash currency exceeded its sale during all these days.
The official hryvnia-dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 41.6027 UAH/$1, weakened to 41.7607 UAH/$1 over three days but ended the week at the same level.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate over the past week fluctuated around the official rate of 41.7565 UAH/$1, and the hryvnia weakened by about 25 kopecks to the following levels: purchase – about 41.70 UAH/$1, and sale – about 41.80 UAH/$1.
At the end of last week, Bloomberg reported pressure from the International Monetary Fund to increase the pace of hryvnia devaluation, but there is no information on the impact of this factor yet, except that on the first trading day of this week, the hryvnia fell slightly to 41.7624 UAH/$1.
“The Ukrainian currency market continues to be influenced by the National Bank of Ukraine’s strategy of controlled flexibility… Since the beginning of October, the hryvnia has been gradually weakening against the dollar. The exchange rate on the cash market is changing at a similar pace,” experts from KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market, described the situation.
They added that there has been a noticeable increase in demand on the interbank market in October, and the NBU has been forced to increase its interventions. According to experts, this trend is seasonal on the one hand, as companies’ need for currency to make payments increases in the fall, and on the other hand, an additional factor affecting the hryvnia was the intensification of shelling of Ukraine’s energy and gas infrastructure, which led to an increase in imports of gas and energy equipment.
“In the short term (1–1.5 weeks): the base range is 41.4–41.9 UAH/$1, with a probable tendency toward the upper limit of the forecast,” according to the forecast for the cash market provided by KYT Group.
In the medium term (2–3 months), according to its experts, the exchange rate will be in the range of 41.30–42.00 UAH/$1. They believe that if the Fed goes ahead with an October rate cut and the risks of a trade war between the US and China weaken, the fundamental movement of the dollar on the international market may strengthen, which will also affect the exchange rate in Ukraine. However, the domestic Ukrainian context of expectations of continued large-scale shelling of infrastructure and a deterioration in the energy sector, as well as the high demand for growth in import volumes, may contribute to a more rapid strengthening of the dollar on the Ukrainian currency market.
“In the long term (6+ months): the scenario of a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia remains. Provided that international aid continues to flow in at a steady pace, the benchmark is 43.20-44.40 UAH/USD until mid-2026, taking into account the current situation in Ukraine,” according to a comment by KYT Group.
Source: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1113033.html
