Ukraine’s construction market is showing mixed trends at the start of 2026: infrastructure and engineering construction remains the main driver, while the residential and part of the commercial segments continue to face pressure from rising costs, limited effective demand, and military risks. However, complete official statistics for January–March 2026 have not yet been published: according to the statistical agencies’ calendar, construction data for January–March is expected to be released in late April, so the current picture as of April 10 is based primarily on January–February results and related first-quarter indicators.
After a 12% increase in the volume of completed construction work in 2025—to UAH 248.1 billion—the market entered 2026 with a higher base, but growth rates began to level off as early as the first few months. In January, the volume of construction work grew by 3.3% year-over-year to UAH 11.254 billion, while building construction declined by 6.5%—including residential construction by 12% and non-residential construction by 4%—while civil engineering added 15.5%. Based on the results for January–February, the market already showed a 1.8% year-over-year decline to UAH 23.04 billion: the residential segment fell by 11.5%, the non-residential segment by 9.5%, while civil engineering structures, conversely, grew by 8.5%.
Rising construction costs remain a separate factor putting pressure on the market. According to the State Statistics Service, in February 2026, prices for construction and installation work rose by 7.2% compared to February of last year, and by 6.5% for the January-February period. In residential construction, price growth over two months was 6.1%, in non-residential construction—6.9%, and in civil engineering—6.4%. This means that even if certain growth areas remain stable, the profit margins of developers and contractors remain under pressure, especially in projects where sales prices or budget limits cannot keep pace with rising construction costs.
The residential segment, meanwhile, continues to present a mixed picture. On the one hand, the National Bank noted in its January inflation report that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of projects where construction began rose by 19% year-over-year, including a 77% increase in residential projects, and the number of buildings commissioned increased by 21%, including residential housing—by 40%. On the other hand, the NBU noted in its December Financial Stability Review that sales in unfinished projects remain sluggish, especially in the early stages of construction and in less secure regions, and housing prices in most regions are changing only slightly, indicating subdued demand.
Preferential mortgages remain a key support mechanism for the primary market. As of early April 2026, banks had issued 2,152 loans totaling 4.19 billion UAH under the “eOselya” program since the start of the year, and a total of 24,765 families have purchased housing since the program’s inception, for a total of 43.1 billion UAH. At the same time, in just one of the latest weekly reports, 101 out of 158 loans were for “first-sale” housing, including 48 loans for apartments in buildings under construction. This confirms that part of the demand for new housing in 2026 continues to be driven by state-subsidized mortgages.
According to Maksim Urakin, founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, in January–March 2026, the Ukrainian construction market entered a phase of more complex but more mature growth. “It is no longer possible to speak of a single construction boom. Ukraine is effectively operating in three parallel markets: the first is reconstruction and engineering infrastructure, where demand remains stable; the second is the locally active residential segment in relatively safe regions; the third consists of frozen or very slow-moving projects in high-risk zones. The main trend at the start of 2026 is not simply volume growth, but a redistribution of capital toward infrastructure, logistics, industrial, and social real estate,” Urakin believes.
In his assessment, the market will depend on three factors in the coming months: continued funding for reconstruction, the sustainability of the “eOselya” program, and companies’ ability to maintain construction costs. “If state and international reconstruction programs maintain their pace, and mortgage instruments continue to support primary demand, the construction sector will be able to remain in positive territory in 2026. But without an expansion of long-term financing and a reduction in military risks, the housing market will grow in isolated pockets rather than across the board,” noted the founder of Experts Club.
Overall, the start of 2026 shows that Ukraine’s construction market remains vibrant and adaptable, though its growth is becoming increasingly segmented. Infrastructure, logistics, and restoration projects are performing the most steadily, while mass residential construction still depends on security, affordable mortgages, and developers’ ability to finance projects amid rising costs.
CONSTRUCTION MARKET, EXPERTS CLUB, HOUSING, INFRASTRUCTURE, URAKIN
