According to Experts.news, Ukraine’s construction industry has shown mixed trends based on preliminary results for the first half of 2026: following growth in 2023–2025, the sector has faced a slowdown in the volume of work, rising construction costs, a labor shortage, and a shift in demand toward housing and infrastructure reconstruction.
The State Statistics Service has not yet released final data for January–June, so a current assessment can be made based on statistics for the first four months, data on housing completions in the first quarter, the “eOselya” and “eVidnovlennia” programs, as well as construction companies’ expectations for the second quarter.
According to the State Statistics Service, the volume of construction work completed in Ukraine in January–April 2026 decreased by 2% compared to the same period in 2025 and amounted to 59.3 billion UAH. At the same time, in April compared to April 2025, construction had already shown a 2.8% increase; specifically, residential construction rose by 5.8%, civil engineering structures by 9.7%, while non-residential construction declined by 7.4%. New construction accounted for 47.8% of the total in April, repairs for 29%, and reconstruction and other work for 23.2%.
By comparison, in 2025, the volume of construction work completed in Ukraine rose by 11.3% to 258.2 billion UAH, but the growth rate was already slowing down at that time, following 17.8% growth in 2024 and 31.8% in 2023. In 2025, residential construction grew by 13.5%, nonresidential construction by 25.4%, and civil engineering by only 3.1%.
“In the first half of 2026, the construction sector effectively transitioned from a phase of rapid post-shock recovery to a phase of selective growth. Housing, renovations, engineering infrastructure, and reconstruction-related projects remain the most resilient. At the same time, commercial non-residential construction remains weaker due to war risks, more expensive financing, and uncertainty for investors,” noted Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center and candidate of economic sciences.
The residential segment appears more stable than the overall industry trend. In the first quarter of 2026, housing completions in Ukraine decreased by only 0.1% year-over-year, to 2.289 million square meters. During this period, 29,600 apartments were completed, which is 4.3% more than in the first quarter of 2025. The largest volumes of housing completions were recorded in the Lviv, Odesa, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia, and Ternopil regions, while in Kyiv, 289,000 square meters of housing—or 4,900 apartments—were completed.
Government programs remain one of the key sources of demand for housing. According to the Ministry of Economy, as of June 22, 2026, 4,104 Ukrainian families had taken advantage of the “eOselya” program since the beginning of the year, receiving preferential mortgage loans totaling nearly 7.7 billion UAH. In just one week in June, 157 loans totaling 313 million UAH were issued, with the majority of new loans going toward first-time home purchases.
The “eVidnovlennia” program plays an even more important role for the construction market. As of June 2026, 206,447 Ukrainian families had received assistance for repairing or purchasing new housing, totaling 103.9 billion UAH. More than 138,000 families received payments to repair damaged homes, nearly 65,000 families received housing certificates for destroyed property, and a separate program for rebuilding on private land is already being funded through tranches.
At the same time, the industry is facing significant price pressure. According to the summary table of price indices for construction and installation work, in April 2026, the construction price index stood at 103.1% compared to March, following 109.4% in March, 101.8% in February, and 101.1% in January. The cumulative figure for the first four months of 2026 was 116.1%, indicating a significant increase in the cost of labor and materials.
Business expectations among construction companies remain cautious. According to a State Statistics Service survey for the second quarter of 2026, the business confidence indicator in construction improved by 1.9 percentage points compared to the first quarter but remained deeply negative at minus 25.7%. The current order volume was estimated at minus 41.5%, and expectations regarding the number of employees stood at minus 9.9%. Companies cited labor shortages, financial constraints, and other factors as the main limiting factors, while their order backlog was estimated to cover an average of six months of work.
At the macro level, the country’s recovery remains the industry’s main long-term driver. According to estimates by the World Bank, the Ukrainian government, the European Commission, and the UN, Ukraine’s needs for recovery and reconstruction over the next ten years are already estimated at nearly $588 billion. Direct losses reached $195 billion, with the housing, transportation, and energy sectors hardest hit. Damages to the housing sector alone are estimated at approximately $61 billion, and about 14% of the housing stock has been damaged or destroyed.
According to Experts Club’s assessment, in the second half of 2026, Ukraine’s construction industry will remain dependent on three key factors: the security situation, access to financing, and the stability of government recovery programs. Residential projects in hinterland regions, the reconstruction of damaged housing, engineering infrastructure, the energy resilience of communities, social housing, and critical infrastructure facilities will have the greatest potential.
“The Ukrainian construction sector cannot be assessed solely based on the current index of completed work. It is no longer just an economic sector, but one of the key tools for survival, the return of people, the recovery of communities, and the country’s future investment attractiveness. But the transition from repairs to large-scale modernization requires long-term financing, insurance against war risks, transparent project pipelines, and skilled personnel,” emphasized Maksym Urakin.
Thus, the first half of 2026 for Ukraine’s construction industry can be preliminarily assessed as a period of stabilization following the rapid growth of previous years. The market is not showing a uniform upturn, but it has significant structural demand related to housing, reconstruction, infrastructure, and future post-war reconstruction. For businesses, this means a shift toward more selective competition—companies with access to financing, qualified personnel, a transparent cost estimation framework, and the ability to work with government and international reconstruction programs will come out on top.
CONSTRUCTION, EXPERTS CLUB, HOUSING, INFRASTRUCTURE, RECONSTRUCTION, URAKIN
