In its July WASDE report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year to 24 million metric tons from 23.5 million metric tons, which had been expected a month earlier.
According to the WASDE report, released on July 10, 2026, the forecast for global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year remained virtually unchanged at 819.97 million metric tons, compared to 820.06 million metric tons in June. At the same time, the USDA notes that the wheat production forecast was raised for Russia and Ukraine due to favorable conditions for winter wheat.
The USDA raised its forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports to 14.5 million metric tons from 14 million metric tons a month earlier. According to the report, global wheat exports for the 2026/27 marketing year have been raised to 213.1 million metric tons due to increased shipments from Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine, which more than offset the downward revision to Canada’s export forecast.
In the WASDE tables for the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine’s wheat production is estimated at 24.1 million metric tons, with exports at 14 million metric tons. In the 2024/25 marketing year, according to the USDA, Ukraine produced 23.4 million metric tons of wheat and exported 15.75 million metric tons.
The revision of the Ukrainian forecast comes amid a tighter global supply-demand balance. The USDA lowered its forecast for global ending wheat stocks in the 2026/27 marketing year to 272.8 million metric tons, which is 2.6 million metric tons less than the June estimate. At the same time, the forecast for global consumption was raised to 826.2 million metric tons.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture had previously forecast the 2026 grain harvest at approximately 60.4 million metric tons, including about 22.4 million metric tons of wheat, about 4.7 million metric tons of barley, and about 31.6 million metric tons of corn.
According to the State Statistics Service, in 2025, Ukraine’s wheat harvest increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million metric tons, and the corn harvest rose by 14.6% to 30.9 million metric tons, while barley production fell by 2.4% to 5.2 million metric tons.
Ukraine remains one of the key wheat exporters in the Black Sea region; however, export volumes in the 2026/27 marketing year will depend not only on the harvest but also on the operation of the maritime corridor, logistics via the Danube and western borders, ship insurance, and the security situation regarding port infrastructure.
