The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for U.S. corn exports in the 2026/27 season amid ongoing supply constraints from Ukraine.
In the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on August 12, the forecast for U.S. corn exports was raised by 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, or approximately 83.8 million metric tons. Compared to the July estimate, the increase amounts to about 1.9 million metric tons, or 2.3%.
The USDA explicitly attributes the increase in the U.S. export forecast to rising global demand and limited export capacity from Ukraine.
At the same time, the agency lowered its forecast for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2026/27 marketing year by 1 million metric tons—from 23 million to 22 million metric tons. Meanwhile, the estimate for Ukraine’s corn harvest itself, on the contrary, was increased by 1.8 million metric tons—from 30 million to 31.8 million metric tons.
Thus, Ukraine may harvest more corn than the USDA expected just a month ago, but a smaller portion of the harvest will be able to reach foreign markets.
As a result, the forecast for Ukraine’s ending corn stocks has been increased from 2.06 million to 4.86 million metric tons—more than 2.3 times the previous figure. At the same time, the USDA left its forecast for domestic consumption virtually unchanged.
The situation on the global market is different. The USDA raised its forecast for global corn trade in the 2026/27 season by 0.6 million metric tons—from 209.88 million to 210.48 million metric tons.
The United States is the main source of this additional supply. At the same time, the USDA lowered its export forecast not only for Ukraine but also for the European Union.
The U.S. agency also raised its forecast for EU corn imports, while estimates for purchases by China and Turkey were lowered.
The growth in U.S. exports is occurring against the backdrop of a virtually unchanged forecast for U.S. corn production. The harvest is expected to reach about 16 billion bushels and could be the second-largest in the country’s history. However, the increase in export demand will lead to a reduction in U.S. ending stocks by 137 million bushels—to 1.7 billion bushels.
The USDA also raised its forecast for the average corn price for U.S. farmers by $0.10 to $4.50 per bushel.
Consequently, difficulties with Ukrainian corn exports are already beginning to shift the global market in favor of competing suppliers. The U.S. stands to increase shipments by nearly 2 million metric tons compared to the previous forecast, while Ukraine risks accumulating significant additional domestic stockpiles.
