Overall, Ukrainian agricultural exports have currently fallen by 50–60% of their potential volume due to significant complications and rising logistics costs, while one of Ukraine’s largest agricultural exporters—Nibulon Joint Venture LLC—has managed to limit the current monthly decline to 25–30%, according to Volodymyr Slavinsky, trade director at the agricultural company Nibulon.
“As for our company, our monthly export volumes are currently declining—let’s put it this way—by approximately 25–30% compared to last year or to the levels seen before June, which we consider a decent result and see potential for growth. But overall, across the industry, the rate of decline is reaching 50–60% of what it should be today,” he noted during a panel discussion on the agricultural sector at the fourth annual “Economic Truth” export forum in Kyiv on Wednesday.
According to an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent, based on Nibulon’s estimates, due to the slowdown, Ukraine is currently exporting only about 2 million metric tons of agricultural products per month, despite a potential of 5–6 million metric tons under normal economic conditions, which significantly undermines the financial stability of agricultural producers and their ability to sustain operations and the planting season.
Slavinsky emphasized that logistics via the Danube and alternative overland routes have become significantly more complicated and expensive in recent years. In particular, since farmers in the central regions are unable to independently organize complex logistics to European ports or rail stations, logistical functions have fallen entirely on large companies and traders.
“To maintain a stable pace of shipments and daily deliveries, the company currently spends nearly 20% or more of its working capital on logistics. The cost of shipping by sea has increased fivefold—to $100 instead of $20—and delivery times have risen from 7 to 30 days. This means that there are far more goods in transit, and the costs associated with goods in transit are significantly higher,” he said.
To address these issues, “Nibulon” is initiating the creation of a mechanism for state and international financial guarantees that would allow Ukrainian businesses to obtain prompt financing from Western banks at reasonable interest rates.
Among other critical issues in Danube and maritime logistics, the Nibulon representative cited a labor shortage and the lack of practical opportunities for Ukrainian seafarers to obtain the required “Danube certificates,” which makes it more profitable for Ukrainian companies to change their fleet’s flag than to operate under the Ukrainian flag. In addition, the expansion of land-based exports via rail and road is hampered by significant tariff increases and restrictions imposed by neighboring EU countries.
At the same time, the company noted that Ukrainian agricultural producers have already demonstrated their ability to adapt quickly to extremely challenging conditions; however, the sector’s future trajectory will depend on the availability of financial capital and systematic support from the government and international partners.
As previously reported, due to operational restrictions at Black Sea ports, nearly half of Ukraine’s agricultural exports (approximately 32 million metric tons of produce with an estimated value of about $10 billion) are at risk. In October 2026, Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky discussed with Fatma Jeren Yazgan, the Turkish Ambassador to Ukraine, the possibility of Ankara’s assistance in restoring safe and stable shipping in the Black Sea, noting that alternative routes (the Danube, rail, and road transport) are unable to fully replace maritime exports, and prolonged restrictions will lead to a reduction in planted areas.
In addition, according to the consulting firm Spike Brokers, in September 2026, grain shipments by rail to Ukrainian ports fell by 38.6% compared to August—to 177,600 metric tons. Specifically, grain shipments to the ports of Greater Odesa fell by 46.5% (to 35,000 metric tons), and to the export port of
Izmail—by 42.3% (to 42,600 metric tons). In total, Ukraine exported 3.035 million metric tons of agricultural products (UKT ZVD groups 01–24) in September, worth $1.563 billion, of which 1.481 million metric tons were grains (wheat, corn, barley). At the same time, the share of land crossings continues to grow—in September, 664,500 metric tons were shipped via these routes, or about 85% of all rail grain exports.
