In its November report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for grain exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 3 million metric tons: wheat—from 12.5 million metric tons to 11.5 million metric tons; corn—from 22 million metric tons to 20 million metric tons.
According to the report on the agency’s website, the wheat harvest estimate was simultaneously increased from 26 million metric tons to 26.5 million metric tons, and the estimate for other grains was raised from 7.29 million metric tons to 7.69 million metric tons, while the corn estimate remained unchanged at 31.8 million metric tons.
Accordingly, U.S. experts have raised the forecast for wheat carryover stocks at the end of the 2026/27 marketing year from 6.1 million metric tons to 6.3 million metric tons, compared with 2 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year; for corn—from 5.53 million metric tons to 7.53 million metric tons, compared with 2.92 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year—and for other grains—from 3.17 million metric tons to 3.57 million metric tons, compared with 1.78 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year.
For Russia, the estimate for wheat exports was reduced from 40 million metric tons to 39 million metric tons, and for other grains—from 7.18 million metric tons to 7.03 million metric tons.
According to the updated USDA report, the estimate for global wheat trade this marketing year has been lowered by 0.31 million metric tons to 208.66 million metric tons, as the decline in exports from Russia and Ukraine will be largely offset by increased exports from Australia and Argentina.
“The conflict in the Black Sea region continues to result in both countries’ shipment volumes remaining below their long-term averages, despite efforts to use alternative ports and modes of transport,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture noted.
Projected ending global stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year have increased by 4.8 million metric tons and now stand at 280.8 million metric tons, largely driven by increases in Ukraine, Argentina, Russia, and Kazakhstan, the report states.
It also notes that global barley production increased by 1.0 million metric tons to 161.1 million metric tons, primarily reflecting growth in Australia and Ukraine, which is partially offset by a decline in production in Russia.
The estimate for global corn trade volume has been reduced by 1.34 million metric tons to 210.72 million metric tons, as the decline in exports from Ukraine, the United States, and India will be largely offset by an increase in exports from Argentina.
The USDA expects global ending stocks of feed grains to increase by 2.9 million metric tons to 316.2 million metric tons, primarily reflecting higher corn stocks in Ukraine and China.
As for global soybean production, the estimate has been revised downward by 0.2 million metric tons to 442.5 million metric tons, mainly due to lower production in Ukraine, South Africa, the EU, and Mexico. At the same time, the forecast for soybean trade has been revised upward by 0.55 million metric tons—to 192.55 million metric tons—due to increased exports from the United States and Argentina, which will fully offset the decline in exports from Ukraine, Uruguay, and South Africa.
