According to Experts.new, the global aviation industry faced a new fuel crisis in 2026: a sharp rise in jet fuel prices, supply disruptions caused by the conflict surrounding Iran, and logistical risks in the Middle East are forcing airlines to revise their schedules, cut unprofitable flights, and prepare for fare increases.
The trigger for a new wave of discussion was a report by the German magazine *Spiegel* claiming that Lufthansa was allegedly preparing to ground up to 40 aircraft due to a fuel shortage. However, the magazine later retracted the report, and Lufthansa told Reuters that the information was incorrect and likely based on an outdated internal memo. According to Reuters, *Spiegel* acknowledged that it had used outdated information.
At the same time, the underlying issue of pressure on the aviation market from fuel prices remains relevant. Back in the spring, Lufthansa was indeed considering contingency plans, including a 2.5–5% reduction in capacity and the possible temporary grounding of 20–40 less fuel-efficient aircraft. This was not an immediate decision but rather a set of measures to be implemented should the situation regarding kerosene prices and availability worsen.
The biggest blow to the industry has been the cost of fuel. In June, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) nearly halved its profit forecast for the global aviation industry for 2026—to $23 billion. According to IATA’s estimates, airlines’ fuel costs could rise to $350 billion this year, and fuel’s share of operating expenses could reach 31.4%, up from 25.4% a year earlier.
This is critical for the aviation industry: fuel is traditionally one of the largest expense items, and a sharp spike in prices quickly turns some routes into money-losers. Short European flights, regional routes, older aircraft with high fuel consumption, and carriers with limited hedging capabilities are particularly vulnerable.
In early June, the European Commission stated that, at that time, there were no signs of an aviation fuel shortage in Europe. At the same time, officials in Brussels acknowledged that regional airports could be the most vulnerable, and that the main risk to passengers is not a physical shortage of jet fuel but rising ticket prices.
Major airlines are already responding to the situation. European carriers are warning that as old fuel hedges expire, rising jet fuel costs will have a greater impact on fares. Some companies are cutting flights, revising schedules, canceling less profitable routes, and accelerating the retirement of older aircraft.
Lufthansa announced in the spring that it would be cutting back part of its short-haul program, and other European carriers have also warned of the risk of fare increases. In the U.S., according to the Department of Transportation, major airlines’ fuel costs rose sharply in March: they increased by $1.8 billion, or 56%, over the course of the month.
Globally, the situation is being complicated by several factors at once. The conflict surrounding Iran has heightened risks to supplies transiting the Middle East; the closure or restriction of air corridors has increased route lengths and fuel consumption; and disruptions in maritime logistics along strategic routes have raised the cost of oil and petroleum product shipments.
An additional factor for Europe has been the controversy surrounding future EU regulations on methane emissions from oil and gas imports. Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and a number of other countries are advocating for a postponement of some of the requirements, warning that the new rules, set to take effect in 2027, could complicate imports not only of gas but also of petroleum products, particularly aviation kerosene.
Thus, while there is no confirmed systemic kerosene shortage on the European market yet, three persistent trends are evident: aviation fuel has become significantly more expensive, airlines are cutting unprofitable routes, and they are preparing to pass on some of the costs to passengers.
For passengers, this means that tickets on certain routes may become more expensive, especially on long-haul flights and routes with low load factors. For airlines, it means that fleet efficiency is once again becoming a key factor in competitiveness. Old aircraft, which were viable when fuel prices were low, are quickly becoming economically unviable amid high jet fuel prices.
In 2026, the aviation market is, in essence, undergoing a new post-pandemic stress test: demand for flights remains strong, but route profitability is deteriorating. Therefore, the main trend in the coming months will not be a halt to aviation, but a more expensive and selective flight network, where carriers will retain only those routes that can withstand the pressures of fuel costs, demand, and operating expenses.
