Italy’s economy in 2025 is showing moderate growth amid structural problems and external economic challenges. Despite positive trends at the beginning of the year, the outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain.
Key macroeconomic indicators for 2025
GDP growth: According to the European Commission’s forecast, GDP is expected to increase by 1.0% in 2025.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to rise moderately to 2.3%.
Unemployment rate: Unemployment is expected to fall to 7.7%.
Budget deficit: The deficit is projected to narrow to 3.3% of GDP.
Public debt: Public debt is expected to rise to 137.8% of GDP by 2026.
Economic dynamics in January-April 2025
Industrial production: In March 2025, industrial production increased by 0.1% compared to February, which is below the expected growth of 0.5%. In annual terms, production fell by 1.8%, continuing the downward trend for 26 months.
GDP growth in Q1: Italy’s economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, slightly exceeding analysts’ expectations. Factors supporting the economy
Domestic demand: Private consumption is expected to strengthen, becoming the main driver of economic growth in 2025.
Fiscal policy: The Italian government has approved a budget for 2025 that includes tax breaks for families and deficit reduction, which should stimulate economic activity.
Risks and challenges
External factors: Potential trade tensions, particularly with the US, could negatively affect exports and overall economic growth.
Structural problems: High public debt and the need for structural reforms remain key challenges for the Italian economy.
Forecast for the end of 2025
GDP growth: Growth of around 1.0% is expected, with domestic demand remaining the main driver.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain at 2.3%, in line with the European Central Bank’s target.
Unemployment: The unemployment rate is projected to decline to 7.7%, reflecting a gradual improvement in the labor market.
Thus, despite the existing challenges, Italy’s economy is showing signs of stabilization in 2025, supported by domestic demand and government support measures. However, further structural reforms and the effective use of available resources are necessary to ensure sustainable growth.
The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center warns of frosts in western and northern regions, as well as in Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr regions, on Monday night.
“On the night of May 12, in the western, northern, and Vinnytsia regions, there will be frost on the ground (hazard level I, yellow), and in the western and Zhytomyr regions and in the air, frost will be 0-3° (hazard level II, orange),” the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center said in a statement.
It is noted that frosts will damage flowering fruit trees.
Currently, photos of snow-covered Carpathian Mountains, in particular Yablunytsia in Ivano-Frankivsk region, are being posted online. It snowed in the morning on Mount Pop Ivan Chernogorsky, with about 5 cm of snow falling during the day.
According to a survey conducted by Active Group in partnership with the Experts Club think tank in April 2025, more than two-thirds of Ukrainians (68.6%) have a neutral attitude towards Vietnam. At the same time, 17.4% of respondents express a positive attitude, of which 13.6% are mostly positive and 3.7% are completely positive.
In contrast, 8.2% of respondents expressed a negative attitude (in particular, 6.5% mostly negative and 1.7% completely negative), while another 5.8% of respondents were undecided.
“Historically, Vietnam has been perceived as a country with a rich culture and heroic struggle, but its geographical remoteness and lack of modern ties with Ukraine account for a large share of neutral assessments,” comments Maxim Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Attitudes toward Vietnam among Ukrainians are mostly positive, but a noticeable share of respondents were unable to give an assessment, indicating potential for shaping a stable image of the country in the public consciousness.
The presentation of the study is available at the link.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
According to the results of a survey conducted by Active Group in collaboration with the Experts Club think tank in April 2025, almost half of Ukrainians (49.7%) express a positive attitude toward South Korea. Of these, 34.6% are mostly positive, and 15.1% are completely positive.
At the same time, 32.1% of Ukrainians remain neutral, 14% express a negative attitude (of which 9.5% are mostly negative and 4.5% are completely negative), and 4.1% of respondents were unable to answer.
“South Korea is perceived as a country of technology, education, and innovation. Its economic breakthrough and successful reforms are respected by Ukrainian society,“ said Maxim Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
“It is also important that Seoul supports Ukraine in international formats,” said Alexander Pozniy, co-founder of Active Group.
South Korea is among the ten countries with the highest level of positive perception among Ukrainians, although the share of neutral attitudes remains significant.
The presentation of the study is available at the link.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
According to a survey conducted by Active Group and the Experts Club analytical center in April 2025, Japan was included in the list of countries with the highest level of positive perception among Ukrainians.
The majority of respondents — 66.0% — expressed a positive attitude toward Japan: 39.1% — mostly positive, and 26.9% — completely positive. Neutral attitudes toward the country were expressed by 26.9% of respondents, another 3.6% were undecided, and only 3.6% expressed negative attitudes (of which 2.4% were mostly negative and 1.1% were completely negative).
“Ukrainians traditionally have great respect for Japan. It is a country of high technology, a stable economy, a culture of discipline and solidarity,” said Maxim Urakin, candidate of economic sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Japan is perceived as a country with a high cultural reputation and technological leadership and is among the leaders in terms of positive attitudes among Ukrainians, while the level of negativity is one of the lowest among all countries.
The presentation of the study is available at the link.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
Yemen remains a little-known country for most Ukrainians, which explains the high level of neutrality. This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Experts Club think tank in April 2025.
According to the survey, 64.1% of respondents took a neutral position on Yemen. At the same time, 17.0% of respondents have a negative attitude (12.0% — mostly negative, 5.0% — completely negative), while only 6.9% expressed a positive attitude (4.5% — mostly positive, 2.4% — completely positive). Another 12.0% of respondents were unable to give a clear answer.
According to analysts, this pattern of responses indicates a lack of established associations with the country, except for possible mentions in the context of news about armed conflicts and the Houthi government’s aggressive policy towards shipping in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
The presentation of the study is available at the link.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
