Since February 24, 2.5 million citizens of Ukraine have crossed the Polish border, according to the Polish Border Guard Service.
“Yesterday, on April 5, 21,000 travelers were registered, which is 13% more than the day before (18,500). Today, 4,700 had been issued by 07:00 with an increase of 23%,” the message posted on Twitter says.
Since February 24, 485,000 people have left Poland for Ukraine.
Housing construction is resumed in Kyiv: the first project in the capital, where construction and installation work was resumed, was the New England residential complex.
According to the press service of the developer of the Royal House project, starting from April 5, 2022, the construction team in New England began work on the Lincoln house (5th stage of construction), work on other houses of the complex will gradually resume.
The deficit of the consolidated balance of payments of Ukraine in February 2022 amounted to $1.5 billion, while in February 2021 the deficit was $28 million, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on its website.
According to his data, the current account surplus in February 2022 amounted to $383 million, while in February 2021 the surplus amounted to $134 million.
The NBU also reported that exports and imports of goods in February increased by 31.1% and 30.7%, respectively.
The main factor in the growth of export volumes to $5.4 billion was the growth of food products by 40.7%, due to the growth in grain exports (by 1.8 times). There was also an increase in exports of ferrous and non-ferrous metals – by 31%, chemical industry products – by 42.4%, wood and wood products – by 14.4%, industrial products – by 1.5 times and engineering products – by 1, 5 times.
At the same time, exports of mineral products (including ores) decreased by 15.8% in February.
The volume of imports of goods for the specified period increased to $6 billion, including energy imports – 1.6 times due to the import of oil products and coal, and non-energy imports – by 24.2%. In particular, imports of industrial products increased by 1.1%, by 22.4% – engineering products, by 3% – food products, by 31.8% – ferrous and non-ferrous metals, by 27.5% – chemical industry products, and wood and wood products – by 28.8%.
In addition, according to the National Bank, the surplus in trade in services in February 2022 increased to $453 million from $298 million in February 2021.
The surplus in the balance of primary income in February 2022 amounted to $83 million (in February 2021, the deficit was $5 million). Receipts under the item “remuneration” decreased by 4%, and payments on income from investments – by 14.9%.
Net lending to the outside world (total balance of the current account and capital account) in February last year amounted to $386 million compared to $136 million in February of the previous year.
Net outflow from the financial account was $1.9 billion (February 2021 net outflow was $164 million), driven by an outflow of funds from private sector operations.
The net outflow from public sector operations amounted to $476 million (in February 2021, an outflow of $155 million). Net payments to non-residents on government bonds amounted to $240 million, on Eurobonds – $112 million, and on loans to international partners – $108 million.
The NBU estimated the net inflow of foreign direct investment at $57 million, while in February of the previous year this figure was $153 million.
As the regulator pointed out, the net reduction in the external position of the country’s banking system in operations with portfolio and other investments amounted to $210 million. It was due to a decrease in the external position in the “currency and deposits” item by $255 million.
The external position of the real sector (excluding foreign direct investment) in February 2022 increased by $1.9 billion. It was due to an increase in net external debt on trade loans by $776 million, an increase in cash outside banks by $973 million, a net increase in debt on loans and borrowings for $26 million.
As of March 1, 2022, the volume of international reserves amounted to $27.6 billion, which provides import financing for 3.8 months.
As reported, the consolidated balance of payments of Ukraine in 2021 was reduced to a surplus of $487 million, which is 4 times less than in 2020. The current account deficit of the balance of payments amounted to $2.1 billion, while in 2020 there was a surplus of this indicator in the amount of $5.3 billion.
President of the European Council Charles Michel has said that “massive investments” will be sent to rebuild Ukraine after the war, which was waged against it by Russia.
“We will continue to assist Ukraine with political, financial, humanitarian and material support. We’ve agreed to develop a Ukraine development trust fund. In the short term, it will help support Ukraine, and in the long term, it will provide massive investments to rebuild economy and infrastructure,” he said, speaking at the European Parliament on Wednesday.
The President of the European Council also assured that the EU’s support for Ukraine is “rock solid.” “We are more united than ever. United in sanctions on Russia, united in putting pressure on the Kremlin, united in supporting Ukraine as much as we can. We know we are… with the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, the Republic of Korea, the UK and many countries of the world, we are ready… [to bear the burden of] the sanctions. And, most importantly, our unity, our EU unity, our Atlantic unity, our determination. These are our main assets to end the war, to stop these atrocities and to help rebuild Ukraine,” Michel said.
The US economy will enter a recession next year amid higher Federal Reserve (Fed) rates, Deutsche Bank economists David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Hooper believe.
“The US economy will take a big hit from additional Fed tightening in late 2023 and early 2024,” analysts said in a report titled Over the Brink.
In their opinion, the Fed will raise the key rate by 0.5 percentage points at the next three meetings, and by mid-2023 the rate will exceed 3.5%. The current target range for the federal funds rate is 0.25-0.5%.
In addition, by the end of next year, the Fed will reduce the amount of assets on its balance sheet by almost $2 trillion from the current $8.9 trillion, Deutsche Bank experts predict. For monetary policy, this is equivalent to another 3-4 rate hikes of 0.25 percentage points, Bloomberg quotes economists.
Deutsche Bank predicts that by the summer of 2023 the US stock market will fall by 20%, and the yield on 10-year US government bonds will rise to 3.3% at the end of this year. Unemployment in the United States in 2024 will jump to 4.9% from 3.6% in March, economists expect.
“Our forecast for a recession in the US next year so far differs sharply from the consensus,” the authors of the report admit. “But we believe that this will soon change.”
The simplified customs control regime does not apply to ethyl alcohol, alcohol, beer, tobacco and tobacco products and liquids for electronic cigarettes, the European Business Association (EBA) explained, citing the clarifications of the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance.
As the EBA pointed out in a message on the website, the simplified method provides for customs control and customs clearance of goods, in particular vehicles, imported into the customs territory of Ukraine, without the collection of customs payments, including value added tax, excise tax, import duty.
The importer provides the customs authority with a preliminary customs declaration without customs inspection, without the use of phytosanitary control, measures of non-tariff regulation of foreign economic activity (except for state export control) directly at the checkpoints across the state and customs borders of Ukraine, the association said, based on clarifications.
“However, the simplified customs control and clearance regime will not apply to certain goods, in particular ethyl alcohol, alcoholic beverages, beer, tobacco products, tobacco, liquids used in electronic cigarettes,” the report says.
In addition, it is emphasized that the issuance of licenses, in particular for the import of goods, has now been stopped. Resumption of the suspended terms will occur within a month after the termination or cancellation of martial law.
