UN economists have improved their forecast for global economic growth in 2024 to 2.7% from 2.4% expected in January.
In 2025, it will increase by 2.8%, while previously it was expected to be 2.7%.
The average growth rate of the global economy in the coming years is expected to remain below the 3.2% recorded on average in 2010-2019.
The revision of the estimate for the current year is mainly due to more positive changes in the economies of a number of large developed and developing countries, in particular Brazil, India, Russia and the United States, the organization’s report says.
According to UN estimates, the US economy will grow by 2.3% this year (1.4% was expected in January), the UK – by 0.8% (0.4%), China – by 4.8% (4.7%), Brazil – by 2.1% (1.6%), India – by 6.9% (6.2%), and Japan – by 1.2% (unchanged).
At the same time, the forecasts for the European Union and the euro area were revised downward – to 1% from 1.2% and to 0.8% from 1.1%, respectively.
“For both the European Union as a whole and the euro area, we expect a gradual recovery in economic activity in 2024-2025, after a noticeable stagnation in many European countries over the past year,” said Grigoriy Agabekyan of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
This should be facilitated by a slowdown in inflation (it is falling faster than expected in Europe due to a sharp decline in energy costs), income growth in real terms, and the expected easing of monetary policy.
“In fact, a number of central banks in Eastern Europe and the Swiss central bank have already cut their key interest rates, and as inflation returns to its target level, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also expected to begin their easing cycles this year. It is also expected that as global trade recovers, exports from European countries will increase,” the expert said.
“As for the somewhat more modest forecasts for the European Union compared to those presented in January, this revision is explained by the fact that against the background of continued sluggish industrial production, economic growth forecasts for a number of countries on the continent that depend on the manufacturing industry have been lowered. This list includes, in particular, Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. At the same time, Germany’s economy, which is the leading economy in the European Union, shrank by 0.3% in 2023, and in 2024 we assume a recovery of only 0.3%,” Agabekyan said.
The UN forecasts global trade growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 3.6% next year.
GDP growth in developed countries is expected to reach 1.6% in 2024 and 2025, and in developing countries – by 4.1% and 4.3%, respectively.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
JSC Slavic Wallpapers – KFTB (Koryukivka, Chernihiv region), a leading Ukrainian wallpaper producer, produced 5.29 million standard pieces of wallpaper in January-April 2024, up 13.6% year-on-year.
According to statistics provided by UkrPapir Association to Interfax-Ukraine, the factory’s output growth rate for the first four months of the year was 21% compared to the same period last year: in January-March, the growth rate was 21%.
At the same time, the factory’s production volume in monetary terms increased by 14.8% to UAH 417.4 million over four months.
In April, the company produced 1.49 million conventional pieces of wallpaper, which is 2% less than in April-2023, but 6.3% more than in March this year.
The EBA has no data on wallpaper production in Ukraine in January-April 2024, as the State Statistics Service has stopped providing it.
As reported, in 2023, the factory increased its wallpaper production by 19% compared to 2022, to 16.2 million units, production increased by 38.2% to UAH 1 billion 249 million, and net profit increased almost eightfold to UAH 47.7 million.
Earlier, the company noted that as a result of Russian aggression, sales volumes, especially through retail channels, had significantly decreased.
JSC Slavic Wallpaper-KFTB is one of the largest European wallpaper factories. It produces more than 10 types of wallpaper from the economy segment (paper, duplex, acrylic) to premium wallpaper (vinyl, non-woven, hot stamped).
In addition, the factory produces its own latex, water-dispersion paint under the Latex brand.
On Thursday, May 16, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lekke Rasmussen announced a new EUR 750 million military aid package for Ukraine aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s air defense and artillery.
“I am pleased to announce a new package of military support for Ukraine worth EUR 750 million aimed at strengthening its air defense and artillery. Denmark is also exploring opportunities for investment in the Ukrainian defense industry,” the Foreign Ministry’s press service quoted Rasmussen as saying.
The Minister emphasized that Denmark firmly supports Ukraine and its people.
The National Association Ukrtsukor has asked the Cabinet of Ministers to urgently establish a zero quota on sugar exports to the European Union for 2024 due to the achievement of the maximum volume stipulated by the EU decision for the export of Ukrainian sugar to these countries in 2024, the association reported on Facebook.
“In fact, we are talking about initiating the closure of Ukraine’s border for sugar exports to the EU as soon as possible due to the fact that sugar exports have already reached 262.6 thousand tons, defined as Ukraine’s quota for 2024,” the statement said.
“Ukrtsukor believes that such an appeal is a confirmation of the constructive position of Ukrainian sugar producers and their readiness to integrate into the European sugar market and meet its requirements.
The business association reminded that on May 13, 2024, the Council of the European Union approved the extension of temporary trade liberalization measures for Ukraine for another year, until June 5, 2025. At the same time, it provided for the application of an emergency braking mechanism for particularly sensitive agricultural products, in particular sugar, if imports of these products in 2024 exceed the average imports recorded in the second half of 2021 and throughout 2022 and 2023. Similar emergency braking measures may be applied in 2025 if, in the period from January 1, 2025 to June 5, 2025, the volume of Ukrainian exports exceeds 5/12 of the quota set for 2024.
From mid-May, the Austrian Ministry of Finance and the Austrian export credit agency OeKB (Oesterreichische Kontrollbank Aktiengesellschaft) will start accepting applications for export and investment insurance in Ukraine at the expense of a special fund for Ukraine created by the Ministry of Finance in OeKB through the budget law.
According to the Austrian agency’s press release, it is expected that EUR500 million will be allocated to cover operations in Ukraine over the next five years, and the attraction of funds from international financial institutions could make it possible to receive up to EUR1 billion.
“Approximately EUR100 million per year is earmarked for new business. This will also open up opportunities for Austrian exporters in the process of Ukraine’s recovery,” the Ministry of Finance said in a release.
It is indicated that as part of the existing and proven export promotion procedure, the Ministry of Finance is already facilitating export transactions worth EUR 3-5 million in Ukraine with payment terms of up to three years through OeKB.
It is noted that since funds are limited and the goal is to achieve a wide diversification of risks, in particular in the supported sectors, small and medium-sized public sector transactions based on a state guarantee will be possible at the first stage.
“This will allow us to make vital investments for Ukraine. These include the supply of drinking water and heat, the provision and rehabilitation of the transport sector with roads, bridges and rail infrastructure, as well as supply agreements and investments such as joint repair shops for buses, trams and trains,” commented Finance Minister Magnus Brunner.
Who are the top 10 banks by profit?
Ukrainian banks earned UAH 40.5 billion in 2024. Despite the increase in taxation, banks managed to earn 19% more than in the same period last year. Only 8 banks out of 63 suffered losses in Q1 2024.
Ukrainian banks earned UAH 40.5 billion in profit after tax in Q1 2024. Despite the fact that the tax rate increased from 18% to 25%, banks managed to earn 19% more than in the same period last year.
There are currently 63 banks operating in Ukraine, including 6 state-owned, 14 with foreign capital, and 43 with private capital. Only 8 banks out of the total number suffered losses this year – UAH 111 million.
The top 10 banks in Ukraine earned UAH 34.22 billion in the first quarter. This is 84% of the total profit of all banks in the country.
During this period, Ukrainian banks paid UAH 10.34 billion in income tax, which is one and a half times more than last year. Privatbank paid almost half of this amount – UAH 4.84 billion.
State-owned banks
Privatbank became the leader of the top, earning UAH 13.86 billion in Q1 2024. This is a third of the profit of all banks. However, this is 14% less than in the same period last year – UAH 16.04 billion.
In total, 6 state-owned banks account for 60% of the total profit of all institutions – UAH 24.28 billion. Currently, only the First Investment Bank, which has recently come under state control, suffered a loss of UAH 7.6 million in Q1.
Foreign banks
Raiffeisen Bank remains the leader among banks with foreign capital, having earned UAH 2.53 billion this year. This is 23% more than in the same period of 2023.
Another bank of this group, Credit Agricole Bank, saw its profits for this period increase 20 times compared to the same period last year. This year, the bank earned UAH 2.02 billion compared to UAH 102.9 million in Q1 of last year. This is the largest increase among all Ukrainian banks.
In total, foreign banks earned UAH 10.2 billion, which is a quarter of the total profit. Only one bank, Pravex Bank, suffered a loss of UAH 76.7 million in Q1.
Private capital
FUIB remains the leader of the group of banks with private capital: UAH 2.13 billion of profit for the quarter. This is 38% more than in the same period last year. Together with Universal Bank (Monobank), they received half of the total profit of the banks in this group.
MTB Bank showed the largest increase in profit among private banks: up to 13 times by the first quarter of 2023.
https://opendatabot.ua/analytics/banks-2024-4
