The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar by 17 kopecks on Friday, after the official hryvnia exchange rate was raised by another 7 kopecks at the end of trading on Monday – to 41.5554 UAH/$1, according to the data on the regulator’s website.
The NBU set the reference rate at 41.5959 UAH/$1 at 12:00 p.m. Monday against 41.6644 UAH/$1 on Friday.
“The dollar exchange rate may fluctuate in the range of 41.8-42.5 UAH/$1. The NBU continues to actively restrain sharp fluctuations, as evidenced by the sale of currency from reserves, and large inflationary risks are not expected in the coming month,” analysts at currency exchange market operator KYT Group shared their expectations for the coming weeks in a February review.
However, among the current risks they name further growth of dollar rate in case of change of policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), or sharp fluctuations on external markets, as well as the probability of short-term “jumps” of the rate, as a response to any news about the delay of international aid.
Analysts expect a gradual weakening of the hryvnia to 44 UAH/$1 during the first half of the year, which may be due to increased import purchases in the spring, worsening inflation expectations, and as a consequence, an accelerated weakening of the national currency.
Among other factors of such a forecast is a greater demand for currency in Ukraine due to the expected transition of the Federal Reserve System to a softer interest rate policy. Additional risks, according to KYT Group experts, may be the deterioration of the economic situation, or a shortage of financial aid.
“If the current macroeconomic picture persists, the dollar exchange rate may reach UAH 45/$1 before the end of the year, although this scenario depends entirely on the success of the government’s economic policy and the stability and sufficiency of the inflow of external financing,” the analysts summarized.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers has set the annual average of the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the U.S. dollar in the state budget of 2025 at the level of 45 UAH/$1.
In the 2024 budget, the government budgeted an annual average of 40.7 UAH/$1, and at the end of the year – 42.1 UAH/$1. The hryvnia weakened by 10.6%, or by UAH 4.02 to UAH 42.0390/$1 at the official exchange rate last year.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $43 billion 3.1 million, in January they decreased by 1.8%, or $785 million, and net international reserves (NIR) – by $0.79 billion, or 2.7% – to $28.313 billion.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1047722.html
On February 10 this year, the first freight train was sent from China to Afghanistan via a new direct rail route connecting the two countries through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The train, carrying 55 containers of communication equipment manufactured by the Chinese telecommunications concern ZTE, departed from Chongqing’s Tuanjetsun station to Afghanistan’s Hairaton.
The train will cross the border at the Khorgos checkpoint in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and reach its destination in Khairaton via Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The entire journey is expected to take 12-15 days. “By using the direct rail freight transportation scheme, transportation time will be reduced by 3-5 days compared to road transportation, and logistics costs are expected to be reduced by 15-20%. This will strengthen the safety and efficiency of transportation and supply of goods,” said Liu Jianfeng, a ZTE employee.
The opening of the direct freight route will further strengthen trade and economic cooperation and exchanges between Chongqing and Afghanistan, as well as with other Central Asian countries.
President of the European Council Antonio Costa and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen will visit Uzbekistan on April 3-4 to participate in the first EU-Central Asia Summit.
The summit will be chaired by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and will be attended by the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
During the summit, the EU is expected to reaffirm its commitment to expanding cooperation in areas of mutual interest, including transport and digital interconnectivity – within the region and with the EU, strategic raw materials, economy and security, and the transition to clean and efficient energy sources.
“The first EU-Central Asia Summit will strengthen our commitment to work together for peace, security and sustainable development, in full respect of international law,” said António Costa.
Prices for extra-virgin milk in Ukraine in January 2025 decreased by 8% to 18.5 UAH/kg compared to December 2024, according to the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEP).
Analysts noted that milk prices in January 2025 were 23% higher than in January 2024 and 33% higher than in June 2024.
At the same time, the growth rate of raw milk prices in Ukraine (in UAH) in the second half of 2014 was 2.3 times higher than in the EU (in EUR – 1.8 times). The average price in January 2025, expressed in EUR (for the domestic quality basis), amounted to almost EUR 42.7/100 kg – compared to EUR 45.7/100 kg in December 2024 and EUR 44.7 in November 2024.
“The price in EUR decreased by almost 7% compared to December 2024, and by 5.5% compared to November 2024. At the same time, the price increased by 34% compared to June 2024; by 18.5% compared to January 2024. The average price, expressed in euros and converted to the euro base, decreased to EUR47.3/100 kg in January 2024 – from almost EUR51/100 kg in December 2024,” the UMPA stated.
The experts drew attention to the fact that the ratio between the price levels in Ukraine and the EU/Poland in January 2024 was 87% to the EU average and 82.5% to the Polish average.
“The respective ratios have “rolled back” to the level of October 2024 – the competitiveness of domestic dairy products has increased in January 2025,” the industry association summarized.
Companies from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are ready to invest in the production of processed foods, grain transshipment and port development, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food has reported.
According to the ministry, during a working visit to Saudi Arabia, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitaliy Koval and a government delegation headed by First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko met with more than 20 leading UAE companies. Among them are port operators, investment, agricultural and trading companies interested in import and export cooperation with Ukraine.
“Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates have opened a new page in economic partnership. Among the UAE companies there are those that are ready to enter the Ukrainian market. In particular, to invest in the production of processed products, such as oilseeds, rapeseed, soybeans. As well as grain transshipment and port infrastructure development,” Koval said.
The Minister emphasized that the Ukrainian agricultural sector is already actively working with the UAE. In 2024, we exported more than $197 million worth of agricultural products. Among the most popular products were fats and oils of animal or vegetable origin, meat and edible offal, cereals, vinegar, etc.
As reported, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between Ukraine and the UAE was signed in Abu Dhabi on February 17. It provides for free trade between the two countries and liberalization of access to the UAE market for Ukrainian agricultural products, including duty-free supplies of beef, lamb, dairy and processed foods. In addition, the Saudi side has expressed interest in joint development of beef cattle breeding and production of organic products.
After the full-scale invasion and blocking of seaports in 2022, Ukraine began to actively use land routes for exporting agricultural products, which significantly reduced the transit of agricultural products through the EU, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).
Analysts noted that the maximum volume exported across the borders of neighboring countries was 3.7 million tons of grains, oilseeds and their products in August 2023, when the “grain corridor” had already stopped working and Ukraine’s own sea route had not yet started working.
Experts stated that the structure of exports by country was as follows: Romania – 73% of the total exported volume (thanks to the seaport of Constanta), Poland – 14%, Hungary – 9%, Moldova – 2%, and Slovakia – 2%.
“Establishing its own export route has allowed Ukraine to reduce transit through neighboring countries. Over the past 6 months of 2024, the average monthly volume of exports through neighboring countries decreased by 3.7 times compared to the peak figure and averaged 1.0 million tons of grains, oilseeds and processed products,” the UCAB emphasized.
At the same time, in December 2024, compared to the peak, exports through the Romanian border decreased by 8.2 times to 0.3 million tons, Polish – by 1.9 times to 0.3 million tons, Hungarian – by 1.9 times to 0.2 million tons, Moldovan – by 8.9 times to 0.01 million tons and Slovak – by 12.0 times to 0.01 million tons.
