In its new video on the YouTube platform, the Kiev-based information and analytical center Experts Club has published a rating of countries with the highest probability of sovereign default. The ranking considered both economic and political factors that could lead states to default.
As Maxim Urakin, the founder of Experts Club, PhD in Economics, noted, the current economic situation in the world is alarming.
“The world economy is facing unprecedented challenges and many countries are on the verge of financial collapse. Under such conditions, it is crucial to understand which states are at the greatest risk of default in order to take appropriate measures,” he emphasized.
State default is a situation when a country cannot fulfill its debt obligations to creditors. According to Maxim Urakin, default can have catastrophic consequences for the country’s economy and its citizens.
“Default is not just a technical event. It is a tragedy for millions of people who may lose their jobs, their savings and even access to basic social benefits. That is why we monitor the economic situation in various countries so closely,” Urakin added.
The Experts Club 2024 ranking of countries with the highest probability of default includes Argentina, Lebanon, Sri Lanka and several other countries already facing serious economic problems. These countries are characterized by high levels of external debt, economic instability and political crises.
Experts Club also identified several countries that are at risk in the medium term. Among them are Argentina and Venezuela, which are already facing economic instability and high levels of debt, as well as Greece and Italy, which are dependent on external creditors.
|
Experts Club Rating |
Country |
Current international rating |
| 1. | Argentina | CCC- |
| 2. | Ghana | in default |
| 3. | Sri Lanka | in default |
| 4. | Lebanon | in default |
| 5. | Zambia | in default |
| 6. | Pakistan | CCC |
| 7. | Mozambique | CCC |
| 8. | Ukraine | CCC |
| 9. | Ethiopia | CCC |
| 10. | Cameroon | CCC+ |
| 11. | Bolivia | CCC+ |
| 12. | Burkina Faso | CCC+ |
| 13. | Suriname | in default |
| 14. | Tunisia | CCC |
| 15. | Egypt | B- |
| 16. | Nigeria | B- |
| 17. | El Salvador | B- |
| 18. | Honduras | B- |
| 19. | Laos | B- |
| 20. | Venezuela | in default |
“We see that countries like Argentina and Venezuela continue to be on the verge of default due to internal economic instability and external pressures. Also of concern is the situation in Greece and Italy, which are highly dependent on international loans. The risk of default remains high in these countries,” commented Urakin.
Special attention this year is paid to Lebanon, which, according to the economist, is “in a state of political and economic crisis, with extremely high debt to GDP.” This makes the country particularly vulnerable to a possible default.
Maxim Urakin also elaborated on the factors that could lead to default. Among them, he emphasized the high level of external debt relative to GDP, economic instability and dependence on external financing.
“Countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 100% are particularly vulnerable. Lebanon, Cyprus and Greece are examples. Economic instability and political crises in countries such as Argentina, Venezuela and Pakistan also increase the risk of default,” he explained.
Dependence on external financing is another significant factor.
“Countries that depend on external loans to cover budget deficits, such as Spain and Italy, could face difficulties if conditions in international financial markets deteriorate,” Urakin added.
In a commentary on the rating, Maxim Urakin noted that the consequences of a default for a country and its citizens can often be devastating.
“For government agencies, default means restricted access to international financial markets, lower credit rating and the need for painful economic reforms. For citizens, it turns into inflation, devaluation of the national currency, rising unemployment and lower living standards,” the expert explained.
Urakin also emphasized that default may lead to the growth of social discontent and political instability, which may aggravate the situation in the country. He also assured that Experts Club will continue to closely monitor the economic situation in the world and provide timely relevant data to help countries and investors to minimize risks and avoid defaults.
You can learn more about defaults and the presented rating from the video on the YouTube channel of Experts Club:
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel by clicking here:
Ukrnaftogazburenie LLC (Lviv) has been announced the winner of the tender of the Odesa Port Plant (OPP) for the supply of 242.557 million cubic meters of natural gas by the end of 2024.
According to the plant’s website, the company was accredited as a supplier on August 28. The expected value of the gas supply was UAH 4.185 billion, and Ukrnaftogazburenie’s offer is not listed on the OPP website.
At the same time, the previous July tender of the OPP for the supply of a slightly larger volume of gas was canceled, although the winner, Wilbur Commodities LLC, was also selected.
According to Opendatabot, Ukrnaftogazburenie, registered in August 2023 and owned by Mykhailo Mazur, earned UAH 30.46 million in revenue last year and suffered a net loss of UAH 1.1 million. The company received a license to supply natural gas in September 2023.
On July 29, 2024, the OPP shareholders’ meeting approved an agreement with Agrotorggroup LLC (Kharkiv) for the supply of liquid ammonia and urea for UAH 6.3 billion.
As reported, the OPP produces chemical products and transships them to sea. The state, represented by the SPFU, owns 99.5667% of the OPP shares, Concord Capital LLC owns 0.0021%, and other individual shareholders own 0.4312%.
The privatization of the OPP has been announced more than once for almost 20 years, but has not taken place. In September 2021, production at the plant was suspended due to gas supply problems. In April 2022, it was announced that the plant would be mothballed and employees would be sent on indefinite leave.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has notified ASK Dnister (Lviv) that the Committee for Supervision and Regulation of Non-Banking Financial Services Markets on August 23 revoked the company’s operating licenses and excluded it from the State Register of Financial Institutions.
This insurer reported in the information disclosure system of the NCSSM.
As reported, the NBU on July 12 granted permission to ASK Dnister to voluntarily withdraw from the market by executing the insurance portfolio on the basis of its application.
The decision on the exit of PJSC “ASK ‘Dnister’ from the market and approval of the exit plan was adopted by the shareholders’ meeting on June 28, 2024.
The insurance portfolio of the company is formed of payments on insurance of land transport, except railway transport (91,6%), insurance of property against fire and other risks (6%), other types (2,4%).
The share of the company on insurance premiums in the insurance market makes 0,01%.
PrJSC ASK Dnister was founded in 1993, specializing in risk types of insurance.
On August 14-25, about 100 similar publications appeared in the Ukrainian media aimed at discrediting Kovlar Group, its founders and employees.
Kovlar Group Director Kostiantyn Kalafat believes that these publications are part of a planned information campaign related to the activities of dishonest competitors who, with the support of corrupt officials, participate in public procurement of fire protection materials. “As the practice of tenders in recent years shows, the price of Ammokote fire retardants produced by Kovlar Group is much lower than the price of products used by dishonest businessmen who cheat the state and steal hundreds of millions of hryvnias from the Ukrainian budget,” he said.
It should be noted that the topic of multimillion-dollar embezzlement of budget funds in tenders for fire protection of state-owned facilities was investigated by Yuriy Nikolov, a journalist of the Nashi Hroshi project. According to his investigations, in 2014, 2019 and 2024, the overpricing of fireproof paint and putty for the needs of the nuclear industry was up to 5 times, and in projects to build covers for strategic energy facilities – up to 10 times.
Media community experts estimate the cost of such an attack at $50-100 thousand, which indicates the seriousness of the intentions of the black PR customers to ruin the reputation of the flagship of the Ukrainian fireproofing industry, which prevents embezzlement in public procurement.
It is likely that the ultimate goal of the attack by corrupt businessmen is to shut down the largest Ukrainian manufacturer of fire protection materials, which creates transparent rules of the game in the market and offers one of the lowest prices for its products. If this plan comes to fruition, the construction industry will see a significant increase in prices for fire protection, and the state will be forced to spend significantly more money on the purchase of fire protection materials.
Established in 2015, Kovlar Group produces more than 25 types of passive fire protection products using modern technologies, which allows Ukrainian construction customers to receive high-quality products at an affordable price. Scientific developments and a customer-oriented approach have allowed the company to grow from a startup to the largest domestic fire protection manufacturer in 9 years, which currently holds about 60% of the market.
The company said that despite the information attack, it continues to operate as usual and invest in the development of new products. Kovlar Group is also taking all possible measures to bring to justice those involved in the creation and dissemination of defamatory information and is preparing statements to the National Police of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine and the State Service for Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine to investigate the incident.
Source: https://kovlargroup.com/uk/spovishhayemo-pro-diskreditatsijnu-informatsijnu-kampaniyu-proti-kovlar-grup/
Ukrainian business is among the first 20 countries out of 36 countries of the Convention on a Common Transit Procedure to start using the NCTS (New Computerized Transit System) Phase 5, the Ministry of Finance reported on its website on Wednesday.
“Ukraine had 1.5 years less time to develop NCTS Phase 5 than other Convention countries, and also started this process during the work of the Evaluation Mission before joining the family of Convention countries on October 1, 2022. Despite the full-scale war, Ukrainian government agencies, thanks to the constant support of international partners, in particular the EU Public Finance Management Support Program in Ukraine (EU4PFM), have ensured that Ukrainian businesses can operate in the latest version of the NCTS since April 22 this year,” the statement said.
The Ministry of Finance summarized that since the beginning of Ukraine’s accession to the “customs visa-free regime”, the dynamics of issuing declarations in the common transit procedure continues to grow: to date, the State Customs Service has issued more than 100 thousand NCTS declarations, of which 21 thousand were issued in 4 months of using NCTS Phase 5.
The Ministry recalled that the Convention countries began developing and transitioning to NCTS Phase 5 in March 2021.
In the same year, Germany started using it, and in 2023, 13 more countries (Slovenia, Spain, Luxembourg, Croatia, Switzerland, Denmark, Bulgaria, Latvia, Italy, Ireland, Finland, Estonia, Czech Republic) made the transition.
It is noted that in the first half of 2024, Ukraine, as well as Norway, Sweden, Serbia, Romania, and Cyprus, joined the list of countries using NCTS Phase 5. In July 2014, the UK and Slovakia started using NCTS Phase 5. Another 15 countries (Lithuania, Austria, North Macedonia, Poland, the Netherlands, France, Turkey, Portugal, Malta, Greece, Hungary, Andorra, Belgium, Georgia) plan to complete the transition to NCTS Phase 5 by the end of 2024.
Full-time education will be the main form of education for all educational institutions in the capital, the Kyiv City State Administration (KCSA) said in a statement.
“By 30.08.2024, all educational institutions of the city must report on fire safety preparedness in accordance with the Fire Safety Rules for educational institutions and educational institutions of Ukraine,” the KCSA said in a statement following a meeting of the Kyiv Defense Council.
It is noted that the issue of organizing daily control and monitoring of educational institutions by law enforcement officers was considered separately.
“Given the national situation in the energy sector, the Defense Council raised the issue of providing all educational institutions with independent sources of electricity to ensure a continuous and high-quality educational process,” the statement said.
In addition, the meeting addressed the issue of forms and formats of the educational process in Kyiv educational institutions in the new academic year.
“As a result, it was decided that the main form of education for all educational institutions will be full-time. However, in some cases, distance learning, blended learning and other forms provided for by the legislation of Ukraine may also be used. The availability of shelters must be guaranteed for full-time students,” the Kyiv City State Administration summarized.
