The growth rate of housing construction costs in Ukraine in 2026 will slow down slightly compared to previous periods, with an average increase of 10–15% over the year, according to Ukrainian developers.
“In 2026, we expect further growth in construction costs, but the pace of this growth is likely to be more moderate than in previous periods. The main factors remain the cost of construction materials, energy, logistics, and labor, as well as currency fluctuations,” the press service of the DIM group of companies told Interfax-Ukraine.
Containing the growth of construction costs is possible thanks to the adaptation of the construction market to new conditions: optimization of design solutions, construction processes, and supply chains. At the same time, maintaining a balance between the economic efficiency of projects and the preservation of housing standards remains an important condition, the company noted.
At the same time, pressure on costs next year will come from the cost of energy, logistics, import-dependent building materials, as well as stricter requirements for engineering systems and safety, said Perfect Group project manager Oleksiy Koval. According to him, the company expects costs to grow by 15-20% in 2026.
“Our baseline scenario is a 15-20% year-on-year increase in production costs, but the range will depend on the exchange rate, material prices, and the situation on the labor market. We are building in a safety margin through longer contracts with contractors, optimising project solutions without compromising quality, and planning purchases of critical materials in advance,” he said.
Wages in the industry remain an important factor in the growth of construction costs, Koval added. To combat the labor shortage, Perfect Group is working on employment contracts with foreigners, particularly from India, to attract them to contract work.
In turn, Dan Saltsov, commercial director of Greenville’s Kyiv projects, predicts a moderate increase in the cost of housing construction within the range of 6-12% per year.
“It is likely that the cost will continue to grow by 6-12% per year. Trends in recent years confirm an annual increase. The main factors influencing this are inflation, rising prices for construction materials, higher wages, labor shortages, and currency fluctuations. The market is undergoing structural changes,” said the expert, adding that a decline in housing prices is not to be expected.
This is also confirmed by experts from the developer RIEL. As the company told Interfax-Ukraine, in addition to rising costs, the price per square meter will also be affected by the rising cost of loans in the construction sector.
“We predict further price increases due to rising costs, growth in investments that developers make at the start of a project, and the rising cost of loans in the construction sector. However, in our opinion, demand will remain stable, although a significant increase in new construction should not be expected,” the developer said.
According to the forecast of the construction company Intergal-Bud, the cost of housing will continue to grow within the range of 10-15% compared to 2025.
“The cost per square meter is likely to continue to grow, but without sharp jumps, within the range of 10-15%, and will have objective reasons related to the rise in the cost of construction materials, engineering solutions, labor shortages, as well as security, military, and political factors,” said Olena Ryzhova, commercial director of Intergal-Bud.
According to her, the primary residential real estate market will maintain cautious positive dynamics in 2026. Thus, demand for housing in the “comfort” and “business” segments will remain stable, as will the purchase of apartments in the early stages of construction, traditionally one of the most reliable assets for preserving funds.
However, the residential construction market has not yet recovered to its pre-war levels, the Kovalskaya Group emphasizes. According to the developer, construction costs will continue to rise in response to the rising cost of building materials and energy, as well as due to a reduction in new projects.
“Given the realities we are seeing, the construction market has not yet recovered to pre-war levels. Developers are mainly completing previously started projects, with only one new project for every five completed. The rise in the cost of construction materials and electricity, as well as the reduction in supply, will lead to an increase in the cost of construction. The sale price of apartments is expected to grow by 10-15% per year in currency terms,” the company notes.
As reported with reference to data from Ukrainian developers, the cost of housing construction in Ukraine in the first nine months of 2025 grew by an average of 10-25%, depending on the class of housing. According to the State Statistics Service, prices for construction and installation works in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 5.3% compared to the same period last year, while prices in the primary housing market increased by 12.8% during the same period.
In January 2026, Ukrzaliznytsia will raise prices for most types of rolling stock, with only the cost of transportation by grain carriers and container platforms remaining unchanged, corresponding to the December rates of UAH 1,250/day and UAH 203/day (excluding VAT), respectively.
According to the tariffs published on the company’s website, in January 2026, compared to December 2025, the cost of tank cars for transporting food products will increase from UAH 738/day to UAH 938/day (excluding VAT), mineral carriers – from 203 UAH/day to 450 UAH/day (excluding VAT), and semi-cars – from 1350 UAH/day to 1450 UAH/day (excluding VAT).
Ballast and cement tankers will increase in price by 100 UAH/day, to 703 UAH/day and 1,300 UAH/day (excluding VAT), respectively.
The cost of fitting platforms will also change: 40-foot platforms will increase from 750 UAH/day to 900 UAH/day (excluding VAT), 60-foot platforms — from 850 to 900 UAH/day, and 80-foot platforms will increase from 1250 to 1450 UAH/day (excluding VAT).
The cost of tanks for transporting liquefied gas will increase by 400 UAH to 603 UAH/day (excluding VAT) in January.
Only flatbed timber trucks will become cheaper by 200 UAH, to 1360 UAH/day (excluding VAT).
Ukrainian metallurgical companies may increase steel production by 17% in 2026, to 8.9 million tons from 7.6 million tons in 2025, said Serhiy Povazhnyuk, deputy director of the state-owned enterprise Ukrpromzovnishchexpertiza, in an interview with telegraf.com.ua.
According to him, the main factors limiting production were security-related military risks, staff shortages, unstable electricity supplies due to missile and drone strikes on energy infrastructure, and the continuing shortage of scrap metal on the domestic market.
“As for the forecast for 2026, metallurgical plants have already announced plans to significantly increase liquid steel production, to approximately 8.9 million tons,” the expert said.
At the same time, he noted that the Ukrainian metallurgical industry is experiencing an acute shortage of ferrous metal scrap, in particular due to the growth in exports of this raw material abroad.
“If metallurgical plants manage to implement the planned increase in production, there may simply not be enough scrap metal collected. Domestic consumers should be given priority in terms of raw material supplies, especially now, during wartime,” said Povazhnyuk.
He cited calculations according to which 1 ton of scrap metal, which is processed into metal products at Interpipe’s facilities, for which scrap is the main raw material, brings the state UAH 7,500 in taxes. In addition, 1 ton of scrap used at Metinvest Group’s plants generates about UAH 9,300 in tax revenues to budgets at all levels.
As Povazhnyuk emphasized, this is a direct benefit that the state receives by keeping all scrap metal in the country and processing it into steel. In addition, such processing has a multiplier effect on the entire economy, as it stimulates growth in related industries, such as the production of iron ore, coke, and ferroalloys.
“All this needs to be transported within the country, which means that the transport industry receives additional cargo. According to calculations, these sectors will pay an additional 5.5-5.8 thousand UAH in taxes to the budget per ton of scrap metal consumed. Therefore, the total effect for the budget from processing 1 ton of scrap metal in Ukraine will be 13-14 thousand hryvnia/ton. In addition to cash inflows to the budget, metallurgical plants provide tens of thousands of official jobs for themselves and related enterprises,” the deputy director argued.
In addition, Povazhnyuk stated that exporters pay taxes and payroll charges (personal income tax, social security contributions, military tax), land tax, and income tax.
“According to our data, in 2024, the largest exporting companies, which accounted for almost 90% of Ukrainian scrap metal exports, exported a total of 247,000 tons of raw materials abroad, paying a total of only UAH 12.3 million in taxes. Thus, the state received an average of UAH 50 in taxes for each ton of scrap metal exported. The official number of employees in these companies was only a few dozen people,” said the expert, specifying that the calculations were made based on open data on the financial performance of companies available through the OpenDataBot service and other public sources.
At the same time, Poland has begun discussing the abolition of trade preferences for the Ukrainian metallurgical industry due to Ukraine’s intentions to introduce a de facto ban on the export of ferrous metal scrap. This was written on his social media page by Michal Poluboczek, a member of the Polish Sejm from the Confederation party.
According to the draft resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers “On the approval of lists of goods subject to licensing for export and import, and quotas for 2026,” it is proposed to set the quota for ferrous metal scrap for the next year at zero, which means a de facto ban on the export of ferrous metal scrap.
As reported, in January-November 2025, Ukrainian scrap collection companies increased exports of ferrous metal scrap by 45.3% compared to the same period in 2024, from 261,578 thousand tons to 380,165 thousand tons. In monetary terms, scrap exports increased by 37.4% to $112.782 million from $82.056 million. During the period in question, scrap exports were formally carried out mainly to Poland (79.80% of shipments in monetary terms), Greece (7.61%), and Italy (5.70%).
In addition, it was reported that due to the sharp increase in exports of strategic raw materials from Ukraine, the Ministry of Economy initiated the introduction of a licensing and quota regime for scrap exports with a zero quota. A public discussion of the draft resolution is currently underway. Its implementation is expected to contribute to the smooth operation of Ukraine’s metallurgical and foundry industries, as well as to stabilize the situation with regard to meeting the demand for scrap on the domestic market.
In 2024, Ukraine’s scrap collection companies increased their exports of ferrous metal scrap by 60.7% compared to 2023, from 182,465 thousand tons to 293,190 thousand tons. In monetary terms, scrap exports for the year increased by 73.2% to $91.311 million from $52.723 million.
Earlier, Valentin Makarenko, chairman of the board of Interpipe Vtormet, said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine that ferrous metal scrap exports have always been and remain a threat to the Ukrainian metallurgical industry, as they exacerbate the shortage of this raw material on the domestic market. In addition, this problem is compounded by the fact that during the war, the area suitable for scrap collection is shrinking.
Previously, large metallurgical plants most often compensated for the shortage of scrap mainly by increasing the consumption of pig iron during steel smelting. However, due to the shutdown of the Pokrovsk coal mining group and the increase in coking coal imports, replacing scrap with pig iron has become economically unfeasible in converter steel production.
According to Makarenko, at the same time, the importance of scrap as a raw material for decarbonization of industry is growing. The electrometallurgical method of steel smelting is becoming the most efficient and popular for the manufacture of metal products and their subsequent sale on European markets in order to minimize the impact of the “carbon” tax. Recognizing this trend, the European Union is resorting to various regulatory measures that allow ferrous metal scrap to remain within the bloc, and local steel mills have the raw materials to produce steel in the most economical and environmentally friendly way.
“Today, I don’t see any other effective mechanisms for stabilizing the market and reducing scrap exports, except for an administrative ban on the export of this strategic raw material outside Ukraine at the state level,” the chairman of the board summed up.
For more information on the largest steel producers and global industry trends, see the Experts Club video analysis review available on YouTube: Experts Club — Leaders of the global steel industry 1990–2024
Ukrzaliznytsia has equipped 100 of its own railcars as temporary mobile heating, communication, and leisure centers in response to power outages across the country, the company said in a statement on Tuesday.
“Ukrzaliznytsia, with the help of its partners—All Hands&Hearts, World Central Kitchen, Hachiko Foundation, and White Stork—has equipped 100 of its railcars as temporary mobile heating, communication, and leisure centers,” the company said in a statement on its Telegram channel.
It is noted that the railcars have a full heating system. In addition, they are equipped with chargers from generators and portable power sources, microwaves, refrigerators, and Starlink kits for uninterrupted communication.
Ukrzaliznytsia added that each of the 100 carriages can be used at the request of local authorities as a free mobile hub with a constant autonomous power supply.
Separately, the company noted that the cars have a children’s compartment equipped with play sets, as well as a compartment for a comfortable stay with pets.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has imposed sanctions on Paytek LLC (Kyiv) for violating the requirements of the legislation regulating activities in the payment market: it imposed a fine of UAH 12,803,900 and issued a written warning. According to information on the NBU website, the fine was imposed for violating the requirements of the law on the provision of payment services and the rules for storing and protecting the confidentiality of payment service providers.
It is noted that the inspection department conducted a scheduled inspection of Peitek LLC in May-July 2025, and the company had to pay the fine within 14 calendar days from the date of receipt of the relevant decision.
Peitek LLC is also obliged to eliminate the violations and prevent them in the future until February 27, 2026.
According to data from YouControl, Peitek LLC was registered in Kyiv in 2021. Its authorized capital is UAH 5.5 million. It is owned by Aldega CJSC (Lithuania) Andrius Trofimovas, who is the owner of the microcredit company Aventus Ukraine LLC.
According to the company’s website, Peitek LLC provides services for transferring funds in national currency without opening accounts, as well as for providing funds and bank metals on credit, while, as noted, it does not provide loans to individuals who are consumers of financial services and does not settle their overdue debts.
The full list of recipients of funds to whom Paytec LLC makes transfers and with whom it has concluded relevant agreements includes the following microcredit companies: Aventus Ukraine LLC (CreditPlus TM), Lineura Ukraine LLC (Credit 7 TM), Selfie Credit LLC (SelfieCredit TM), Slon Credit LLC, Innovation Company LLC, Star Finance Group LLC (StarFin and Suncredit TM), FC Procent LLC, KLT Credit LLC, and Gama Upgrade LLC.
ICU Investment Group forecasts a slowdown in Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.2% from 2.1% in 2025, while in July the company forecast GDP growth of 2.5% this year and 2.8% next year.
“Macroeconomic risks are under control, but economic recovery is slow,” according to ICU’s updated macroeconomic forecast released on Tuesday.
ICU noted that the European Union’s (EU) decision to grant Ukraine a loan should provide the preconditions for macroeconomic stability, financing the budget deficit, and supporting the National Bank’s reserves in 2026-2027, as well as creating the basis for the implementation of a new cooperation program with the International Monetary Fund for at least the next two years.
At the same time, according to the investment group, Ukraine will need additional bilateral loans and grants to fully cover its defense needs.
ICU expects economic growth to slow down primarily due to damage to energy and transport infrastructure from Russian attacks, electricity shortages, and complications with maritime exports, which will cause temporary downtime for large manufacturers.
Additional restraining factors include a gradual reduction in the state budget deficit and fiscal stimulus, as well as business hesitation to invest due to high security risks. Private consumption will remain the key driver of growth.
According to ICU’s forecast, annual inflation at the end of 2026 will be 6-7%, and the National Bank of Ukraine will move to ease monetary policy at the end of January with a cumulative reduction in the discount rate by 200 basis points during the year to 13.5%.
According to the company, the National Bank will slightly weaken the hryvnia in 2026 amid slowing inflation and growing external imbalances, and forecasts the hryvnia-dollar exchange rate at the end of next year at UAH 44.3/$1, which is slightly better than the July forecast of UAH 44.9/$1. Reserves, according to the investment group’s estimates, will remain at record levels thanks to EU funding.
According to ICU estimates, at the end of 2025, inflation will be 8.3%, the hryvnia exchange rate will be 42.4 UAH/USD, international reserves will be $53.1 billion, the current account deficit will be 18.2% of GDP, the budget deficit (before official grants) will be 22% of GDP, and public debt will be 101% of GDP.
For 2026, the company forecasts inflation at 6.3%, international reserves at $52.3 billion, a current account deficit of 16.8% of GDP, a budget deficit of 19% of GDP, and public debt of 109% of GDP.As reported, at the end of October, the National Bank downgraded its forecast for the country’s economic growth in 2025 from 2.1% to 1.9% due to energy shortages, the destruction of gas production facilities, and labor shortages, and for 2026 from 2.3% to 2%.
