Sunflower processing in Argentina in August 2025 increased to 488 thousand tons compared to 330 thousand tons in the same month of 2024, according to the APK-Inform agency, citing data from Oil World. At the same time, the figure was only slightly lower than in July of this year (491,000 tons).
According to experts, processing in September and October will continue to significantly exceed last year’s figures, as Argentine processors are taking advantage of the decline in sunflower harvests in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and Bulgaria.
Argentine sunflower oil is currently the most competitive on the world market and is sold at significant discounts compared to products from the Black Sea region. Thus, exports in August amounted to 172,000 tons, compared to 116,000 tons a year earlier. The main destinations are India (90,000 tons compared to 21,000 tons a year earlier) and Iraq (14,000 tons compared to 31,000 tons).
According to data from the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, the sunflower harvest in 2025 exceeded forecasts and amounted to 5.3 million tons, compared to 3.9 million tons in 2024. The country’s authorities expect to maintain high production levels in 2026 by increasing the area under cultivation by 10% annually.
Analysts at the Experts Club note that the growth in processing and exports from Argentina is putting pressure on the global sunflower oil market, lowering prices and increasing competition.
For Ukraine, one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of oil, this could mean a reduction in export revenues and the need to actively seek new markets, as well as to focus on deeper processing and improving product quality.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of May 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksym Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators
The first five months of 2025 saw a modest recovery amid high uncertainty. According to preliminary estimates by the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in the first quarter of 2025 (seasonally adjusted: –0.3% q/q), reflecting the fragile but still positive dynamics of domestic demand and the adaptation of businesses to wartime conditions.
Inflationary pressure intensified in May: annual inflation accelerated to 15.9% (month-on-month: +1.3%), mainly due to a jump in food prices and the impact of energy factors. The NBU directly pointed to seasonal and supply factors and at the same time expects a slowdown in the summer months.
Against this backdrop, the NBU Board consistently maintained the policy rate at 15.5% per annum in March, April, and June, emphasizing the priority of anchoring inflation expectations and exchange rate stability.
Foreign trade in goods remained in deep deficit in January–April: exports amounted to $15.8 billion, imports to $29.3 billion, and the negative balance to about $13.4 billion. During the same period, exports of services amounted to $12.7 billion, imports to $7.4 billion. Structurally, imports are dominated by fuel, machinery, and transport, while commodity exports are concentrated in raw material groups.
Despite the trade gap, international reserves reached historically high levels at the end of May, amounting to $44.5 billion as of June 1, 2025 (thanks to official receipts and NBU operations).
At the same time, the debt burden is high: total public and guaranteed debt as of May 31, 2025, was $180.97 billion (7.52 trillion UAH).
“The current macro dynamics are more like driving with the handbrake slightly engaged: the economy is capable of moving, but without acceleration. The positive aspect is that we are maintaining growth and gradually curbing inflation. The negative aspect is the sources of this balance: reserves and external inflows are replacing investments and export revenues. If we do not convert record reserves and access to international programs into an investment impulse in manufacturing, energy, and logistics in the summer, we will have to extinguish structural fires in the fall, rather than price fires,” notes Maxim Urakin.
The expert also emphasizes the quality of demand. According to Urakin, consumption is reviving, but it is fragile and uneven — it is being sustained by the IT sector, services, and part of trade. Industry without major infrastructure repairs, cheap long-term money, and access to ports is like an engine running at minimum speed.
“Add the risks of energy during peak periods, and we get an economy that needs not isolated injections but systemic therapy: insurance of military risks for investors, fast ‘windows’ for importing equipment, duty-free corridors for exporters, and large-scale public-private partnership projects. Otherwise, we will preserve the trade deficit and dependence on external financing,” the economist stressed.
Global economy
The global picture at the end of May 2025 remains mixed. In its April WEO, the IMF forecasts global economic growth of around 2.8% in 2025, with a further decline in inflation, but with risks related to geopolitics and trade protectionism remaining.
After overheating in 2024, the US saw negative GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025: according to the BEA’s second estimate, a 0.3% decline in annual terms, explained by a sharp increase in imports and a reduction in government spending; domestic final demand remained stable. In May, core PCE inflation remained close to 2.6% y/y, and the Fed kept the rate range at 4.5–4.75% at its meeting on May 1 (in June, it continued its cycle of moderate easing).
China reported official GDP growth of 5.4% y/y (1.2% q/q) in Q1, supported by industry, transport, and IT services; at the same time, the real estate sector remains a restraining factor.
The European economy is gradually emerging from stagnation. In its spring forecast, the European Commission expects GDP growth of 1.1% in the EU and 0.9% in the eurozone in 2025; inflation is converging with the ECB’s target. The first quarter provided positive momentum: eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% q/q.
The UK was a pleasant surprise for the G7: +0.7% q/q in Q1, and on May 8, the Bank of England lowered its rate to 4.5%, maintaining cautious rhetoric due to inflation risks.
Turkey continues to experience a combination of growth and high inflation: in Q1 2025, GDP grew by 5.7% y/y, while inflation in May stood at 35.4% y/y despite tight monetary policy.
India maintains high momentum: according to official data, in the fourth quarter of the 2024/25 fiscal year (January–March 2025), real GDP grew by 7.4% y/y; for the entire fiscal year, the government estimates growth of approximately 6.5–6.9%.
Brazil added 1.4% q/q (2.9% y/y) in the first quarter, but inflation remained high in May — around 5.3% y/y, forcing the central bank to maintain tight financial conditions.
“The world in May 2025 is a multi-speed economy. The US is cooling down with negative Q1 statistics, but demand and the labor market are still driving growth. Europe, despite low growth rates, is on a trajectory consistent with its inflation target; the UK is showing resilience; China is holding steady at 5%+, but with weak private demand; India is the clear leader in terms of growth among the major economies; Turkey is experiencing high inflationary turbulence; Brazil is growing, but paying dearly for it,” comments Maxim Urakhin.
According to the expert, for Ukraine this means a new configuration of opportunities: cheaper global money will not appear quickly, but the “window” for investment in the relocation of production, energy, and defense-industrial chains is already open.
“The main thing is to design growth not as a simple restoration of the pre-war structure, but as a leap in productivity: processing instead of raw materials, logistics with high added value, digital services, and engineering that are export-scalable. Then macrofinancial stability will cease to be fragile and will become a platform for development,” added the founder of Experts Club.
Conclusion
In January–May 2025, the Ukrainian economy is in a mode of sustained stabilization: moderate annual growth at the start of the year, inflation peaking in May, record reserves, and high debt burden. The strategic choice is to transform external support and import resources into a source of investment in productivity and exports. The global context is asymmetrical and risky, but it opens up niches where Ukraine can grow faster than the world if it focuses on structural projects and policies that convert stability into development.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Industrial production in Ukraine increased by 3.2% in July 2025 compared to July last year. This is the second consecutive month of growth: in June, the indicator rose by 2.9%, while in May and April, a decline was recorded, according to the State Statistics Service.
In January-July 2025, the total volume of industrial production was 3% lower than in the same period of 2024. The decline in the extractive industry was 11.1%, and in the production of coke and petroleum products, 6.3%.
The volume of industrial products sold over seven months reached UAH 2,296.5 billion, of which UAH 406.4 billion was accounted for by exports.
The main industries that showed growth in July compared to last year were:
– pharmaceuticals — +23.6%;
– furniture manufacturing — +22%;
– rubber and plastic products manufacturing — +12.7%;
– electricity, gas, and steam supply — +10.2%;
– woodworking — +8.4%;
– food industry — +3.4%;
– coke production — +2.5%;
– electrical equipment — +1.8%;
– automotive industry — +0.5%;
– oil and gas production — +0.4%.
At the same time, there was a decline in:
– coal mining — by 1.6%;
– metal ore mining — by 7.7%;
– textile manufacturing — by 7.1%;
– computer and electronics manufacturing — by 6%;
– metallurgy — by 0.8%;
– mechanical engineering — by 0.1%.
Interestingly, the mining and quarrying segment recorded growth of 49.1%.
Compared to June 2025, industrial production in July increased by 0.6%.
In 2024, industrial production in Ukraine grew by 4.6%.
According to Maxim Urakhin, co-founder of the Experts Club analytical center, July’s growth shows that Ukraine’s industry is gradually adapting to military conditions and external challenges:
“We are seeing a local recovery in pharmaceuticals, wood processing, and energy. These are the sectors that respond most quickly to domestic demand and the needs of the economy. However, the decline in metallurgy and mining reminds us of structural problems: export-oriented industries continue to suffer from logistics and declining global demand. By the end of the year, industry may show a moderate recovery, but investment in modernization and expansion of export routes is necessary to achieve sustainable growth,” Maxim Urakin noted.
The DTEK energy holding company in the Netherlands has secured the seizure of assets belonging to Gazprom International Limited, a company controlled by the Russian Federation, in the form of a 50% stake in the Dutch company Wintershall Noordzee B.V., as part of the enforcement of an arbitration award.
“Gazprom International Limited appealed the seizure, but the District Court of The Hague rejected Gazprom International Limited’s appeal and upheld the seizure,” DTEK told Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
The company recalled that after the illegal occupation of Crimea in 2014, Russia also illegally seized and expropriated all assets of the energy distribution company DTEK Krymenergo, which distributed and supplied electricity in Crimea.
In 2017, DTEK Krymenergo filed a lawsuit with the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague, demanding that Russia pay damages caused by the illegal expropriation. In 2023, the international arbitration court in The Hague upheld DTEK’s claim and awarded damages of approximately $267 million from the Russian Federation, including interest, which will accrue until full payment is received.
“Since Russia did not comply with the international court’s decision and did not pay the damages awarded, DTEK initiated enforcement proceedings to recover damages from Russia in countries where Russian assets are located,” the energy holding company said.
Currently, active enforcement procedures and measures against Russia are being carried out in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and Israel. In addition, measures are being developed for enforcement in other jurisdictions.
As reported, in the fall of 2023, the International Court of Justice in The Hague fully upheld DTEK’s claim against Russia regarding seized assets in the illegally annexed Crimea and ordered Russia to pay the Ukrainian company compensation in the amount of $267 million. The arbitration award is enforceable under the 1958 New York Convention.
At the same time, the energy holding company noted that it plans to immediately initiate the process of recognition and enforcement of the award in the territories of those states where Russia has assets.
DTEK Krymenergo was the largest electricity supplier on the Crimean peninsula, providing more than 80% of its supply.
Wintershall Noordzee B.V. is engaged in the exploration and production of natural gas in the North Sea on the continental shelf of the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Wintershall Noordzee B.V. is a subsidiary of the German company Wintershall Dea.
Freight traffic in January-August 2025 amounted to 208.9 million tons, which is 11.3% less than in the same period in 2024, while in January-July the decline was 12.6%, according to the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) website. According to its data, rail transport remains the leader in terms of freight volume, with 106.9 million tons, which is 9.4% less than in the same period last year.
Rail freight turnover for the reporting period amounted to 67.70 billion tons/km, which is 11.8% less than for the same period in 2024.
According to the State Statistics Service, road transport carried 77.4 million tons of cargo in the first eight months of this year, which is 9.3% less than in the first eight months of 2024.
Cargo transportation by water transport in January-August 2025 amounted to only 0.6 million tons, or 53.3% of the volume in January-August 2024.
Data on cargo transportation by pipeline and rail during martial law is not disclosed. As reported, the volume of cargo transportation in 2024 increased by 7.8%, and cargo turnover by 13%, to 184.58 billion tons/km.
At the beginning of this year, the decline in freight traffic in Ukraine accelerated and reached 18.5% in the first four months, including a 21.3% decline in rail transport, but since then the decline has been slowing down every month.
The Experts Club Information and Analysis Center presents a selection of significant discoveries in the field of astronomy and space over the past week. The collection includes significant global sources.
Mysterious object 3I/ATLAS approaches Mars
3I/ATLAS, the third known interstellar object to enter the Solar System, was discovered on July 1, 2025, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. The orbit of 3I/ATLAS is hyperbolic — the object is not bound by the Sun’s gravity and will not revolve around it, but will only pass through the Solar System. According to calculations, on October 3, 2025, it will pass at a distance of approximately 0.19 astronomical units (≈ 28 million km) from Mars.
In the scientific article “3I/ATLAS (C/2025 N1): Direct Spacecraft Exploration of a Possible Relic of Planetary Formation at ‘Cosmic Noon’,” the authors discuss that at the moment of passing inside the orbit of Mars, the comet may be observable from aboard Martian spacecraft.
In addition, there is a high probability that the JUICE probe (ESA mission to Jupiter’s moons) will also detect 3I/ATLAS in November 2025. Recent estimates of the mass of this object place it higher than previous estimates — it may be more massive than previously thought.
Localization of the brightest FRB (Fast Radio Burst)
An international team of astronomers has been able to pinpoint the source of the brightest FRB signal ever recorded and link it to a specific galaxy.
This achievement helps to better understand the nature of these powerful radio pulses and their possible connection to neutron stars or magnetars.
New theory of Type Ia supernovae
An article in The Astrophysical Journal proposes a mechanism whereby some Type Ia supernovae may be triggered by primary black holes without companions.
This could affect the use of these explosions as “standard candles” in cosmology.
New data from Trace Gas Orbiter about Mars
Analysis of images and spectra from the ExoMars/Trace Gas Orbiter mission has shown that Recurring Slope Lineae on Mars can form without the involvement of liquid water — probably due to dust avalanches. The discovery of oxide and seasonal ozone layers in the Martian atmosphere has also been noted.
Discovery of a potential new satellite of Uranus
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has discovered a potential new satellite of Uranus, provisionally named S/2025 U1, with a diameter of about 10 km, located outside the planet’s ring system.
