Issue #2 – February 2026
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
At the end of February, global financial markets were waiting for the spring news from the Federal Reserve Committee, which is scheduled to meet on March 17-18 to review the key policy rate. Most analysts are of the opinion that the Fed will keep rates in the range of 3.5-3.75%. However, several key factors will influence the committee’s final decision. The first is the situation on the labor market, and the second is the inflation rate in the United States. So far, it is not clear that the labor market in the United States has improved significantly. Employment data since the summer of 2025 has been relatively weak, and the unemployment rate has been on a moderate upward trend, reaching 4.4% in December 2025. However, the latest report from the Ministry of Labor on the labor market situation in January added to the optimism. It showed that in January, US employers created 130 thousand jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Job growth was observed in several industries, including healthcare, social assistance, construction, and professional and business services.
As for inflation, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, it fell to 2.4% in January (annualized). Price pressures eased markedly in the energy sector, and prices for used cars and trucks also declined. Annualized core inflation fell to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, compared to 2.6% in December, which was in line with expectations.
The EUR/USD pair has experienced several significant fluctuations over the past month, but the dollar still managed to strengthen its position at the end of February. While the month started at 1.1854, the US currency dropped to 1.1918 towards the end of the first ten days of the month, but later the exchange rate movement changed, with the dollar ending the month at around 1.1820, showing a clear upward trend.
At the end of February, currency fluctuations were influenced not only by official reports on the US labor market and inflation and market expectations of the Fed, but also by US President Donald Trump’s speech to the US Congress on February 24. In his speech, Trump praised his economic achievements and criticized the Supreme Court for ruling against his tariff policy. Trump called his tariff decisions a key driver of the “economic turnaround.” In general, analysts do not expect the dollar to experience any sharp declines in the near future, as recent statistics point to good economic prospects, so most are sticking to their forecasts of an unchanged key rate following the Fed Committee meeting in March, which will support the dollar’s position.
In the EU, the macroeconomic situation looks stable, and annual inflation in the euro area fell to 1.7% in January 2026, the lowest level since September 2024. Core inflation fell to 2.2% in January. The eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, quite unexpectedly, despite geopolitical tensions, so the EU economy has been growing for nine consecutive quarters, demonstrating resilience. The highest growth was recorded in Spain, Germany, and France. The European Central Bank has recently raised its GDP forecast for 2026 to 1.2%, and the ECB is unlikely to change interest rates in the near future. Therefore, the euro’s position remains quite stable, as well as the tendency to further strengthen the euro.
Domestic Ukrainian context
In February 2026, the hryvnia depreciated slowly: at the beginning of the month, the official exchange rate was at UAH 42.84/USD, and at the end of the last week of February, it was at UAH 43.20/USD. No sharp movements were noticed, as the National Bank closely monitors the level of demand and constantly intervenes with foreign currency: from the beginning of January 2026 to February 20, the NBU sold $5.72 billion on the market.
In February, the key policy rate remained unchanged at 15%, and the NBU noted that inflation in Ukraine was declining and forecasted inflation of 7.5% at the end of 2026.
The main event of February was the approval by the European Parliament on February 11 of a decision to provide Ukraine with €90 billion in financial support for 2026-2027. These funds will be used to guarantee the continuous functioning of the state budget of Ukraine: $30 billion for budget support and €60 billion for military support. Ukraine should receive the first tranche in the second quarter of 2026. This is a long-term loan that will be financed by the EU’s borrowings on the international capital markets, and the obligations will be secured by the EU’s budget reserve.
It is also important that Ukraine continues to receive international assistance from its partners: in mid-February, it received a $690 million grant from Japan and Canada. These funds were received under the ERA mechanism of the G7 countries. The aid has been transferred to the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine and will be used to finance priority state expenditures, including pension payments and social support programs, including housing and utility subsidies.
Meanwhile, the situation in the energy sector remains one of the key issues affecting the domestic economy in 2026. The government informed that it has started working with the EU on the Winter Energy Plan for 2026-2027. The EU has already agreed on a new package of energy assistance to Ukraine worth €100 million as part of the energy plan, which will be part of the preparations for the next heating season in Ukraine.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In February, the US dollar strengthened on the Ukrainian foreign exchange market. On the interbank market, the exchange rate was at 42.9 UAH/USD at the beginning of the month, and on February 26 it was already at 43.20 UAH/USD.
In February, the cash market experienced devaluation fluctuations that mirrored the exchange rate movements on the interbank foreign exchange market. At the end of February, the buying rate reached a corridor of UAH 42.80-43.10/USD, while the selling rate was in the range of UAH 43.28-43.50/USD. Meanwhile, the spread between the buying and selling rates is gradually decreasing at bank cash desks and exchange offices, amounting to UAH 0.40-0.50 per dollar.
Key factors of influence
– International context. The dollar is strengthening against the euro and is moving away from its peak due to new reports on the US labor market, which show an improvement in employment. The dollar is also encouraged by data on slowing inflation and expectations that the Fed will not make a decision on changing its key policy rate in March.
– Ukraine receives international assistance: in February, the European Parliament approved the allocation of €90 billion in financial support for 2026-2027. The funds will be used to meet the needs of the state budget and to finance military aid.
– The hryvnia devaluation trend is noticeable in the foreign exchange market: the interbank exchange rate has already crossed the UAH 43.2/USD mark, and further movement towards UAH 43.5/USD is likely.
Forecast
– In the short term (1-2 weeks): the basic range is UAH 43.3-43.8 per dollar with a likely tendency to the level of UAH 43.5-43.6 per dollar.
– Medium-term (2-3 months): UAH 43.60-44.60/$. On the international market, the dollar may strengthen situationally as a result of the March decision of the Federal Reserve to keep the base rate unchanged, which will be influenced by updated data on employment and inflation in the United States. In Ukraine, the hryvnia will be under pressure from the high demand for imports of equipment to repair energy infrastructure, which will affect the level of demand on the interbank market. The exchange rate will also be influenced by updated forecasts of international organizations on the duration of the war in Ukraine.
– Long-term (6+ months): hryvnia devaluation trend, target – UAH 43.6-45.05/$.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In February, the euro was influenced by fluctuations in the international market, which was reflected in quotes on the Ukrainian market: while the euro started the month at UAH 51.24/€, it fell back to UAH 51.02/€ at the end of February.
In the cash segment, the euro also fell in February. At the beginning of the month, the buying rate for euros in banks and currency exchange offices was 51 UAH/euro, and the selling rate was 51.95 UAH/euro, and at the end of the month, the buying rate was already at 50.5-50.95 UAH/euro, and the selling rate was in the range of 51.25-51.55 UAH/euro.
Key observations
– Exchange rate geometry: The selling rate for cash euros at the end of February 2026 is at the levels of 51.25-51.55 UAH/€. The dynamics of the euro exchange rate in Ukraine in February was significantly influenced by the strengthening of the dollar on the international market.
– Supply and demand: Demand for the euro remained stable in February 2026, but the cash segment saw a weakening of interest in the European currency. The spread between the buy and sell rates in banks is narrowing, amounting to UAH 0.20-0.45 per euro at the end of February.
Key factors of influence
– Global context: The euro is losing ground against the dollar, which is strengthening amid upbeat labor market data and slowing inflation in the United States. Donald Trump’s speech gave markets confidence that the US economy is growing at a faster pace than previously expected.
– Domestic market: the euro is losing ground, which is a result of international currency trends of strengthening the dollar.
– Behavioral factor: In February, the level of demand for euros in Ukraine declined, resulting in a narrowing of the spreads between the two currencies. However, in the long run, the dollar may start losing ground on the international market again, and demand for imported equipment in Ukraine will grow, which is likely to boost demand for the euro in March.
Forecast.
– In the short term (1-2 weeks), the euro will be in the range of UAH 51.05-51.8 per euro on the interbank market.
– In the medium term (2-3 months), the euro will maintain strong positions on the international market due to the stable development of the eurozone economy and expectations of a significant change in the US base rate, as well as due to upcoming changes in the Fed’s leadership, which may shake investors’ faith in the Fed’s independence. In Ukraine, the euro will be primarily influenced by exchange rate movements on the international currency market. The exchange rate target is 51.4-53.8 UAH/€.
– Long-term (6+ months): gradual exchange rate movement of the euro to the range of 54.0-55.0 UAH/€.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
On the international market, the dollar is strengthening due to updated statistics and hopes that the Fed will not revise its key rate in March. However, further prospects for the dollar’s appreciation are not only related to the level of employment in the US and whether inflation will accelerate. Analysts are talking about another aspect: whether the Fed should expect a long pause in its monetary easing policy, or whether it is possible to stop such easing altogether, i.e. whether the key policy rates will be changed in 2026. This is the main uncertainty. ING, for example, speaks of rather high risks for the dollar and assumes that it will decline to 1.22 EUR/USD by the end of the year.
Additional uncertainty factors include Donald Trump’s plans to continue a tough tariff policy and the upcoming US-Iranian negotiations, particularly in the context of Iran’s nuclear program.
Ukraine continues to see a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia, which is under pressure from many factors, including slow economic growth, the labor market crisis, the critical situation in the energy sector, and the need for large volumes of imports. All of this requires the NBU to carefully analyze the situation and regularly support the foreign exchange market with interventions, but there is no objective to maintain the exchange rate, which means further flexibility in terms of supply and demand for currency. The devaluation trend gives investors an impetus to actively buy foreign currency to plan long-term foreign currency savings. As part of a short-term strategy, it is realistic to carry out speculative transactions to sell US dollars. The dollar remains the main currency in the portfolio of foreign exchange savings.
EUR/UAH
Given the temporary depreciation of the euro, it’s time to buy a small amount of this currency to replenish your currency savings. It’s not the time to sell, but it is the time to closely monitor the international currency market and the euro’s movements, especially on the eve of the Fed’s March meeting. Quite strong exchange rate fluctuations could result in a profitable short position and a profitable exit from some of your savings as early as the end of March. The euro remains one of the most liquid assets that should be included in a long-term currency strategy.
Overall strategy
The Federal Reserve has entered a pause in its monetary policy decisions, and the key policy rate remains unchanged for now. The fact that the US has published updated statistics on employment growth and slowing inflation supports analysts’ forecasts that the Fed will decide to keep the rate unchanged in March. However, everything will depend on the new macroeconomic data that the Fed committee members will receive in the first half of March. Unemployment in the United States is unlikely to change critically over the next few weeks, and slowing price growth trends will have a significant impact on the Fed’s monetary decisions. Geopolitical risks associated with both US-Iranian relations and future US-Indian and US-Chinese trade relations may affect the dollar’s fluctuations.
In 2026, Ukraine entered the fifth year of a full-scale war with Russia. Currently, macrofinancial stability is ensured by a sufficient amount of reserves at $57.66 billion. However, there is no optimism about economic development in 2026. According to the European Business Association, businesses have downgraded their forecasts in response to ongoing security, energy, and economic challenges. The latest business survey indicates that 39% of respondents expect a deterioration, compared to 29% last year, and the share of those who believe in improvement has decreased from 32% to 20%. Businesses name three main negative factors: attacks on the energy system, lack of personnel, war and occupation of territories.
Despite the difficult situation in the economy, the NBU does not plan to issue money to finance the budget deficit this year. Nevertheless, the hryvnia will continue to devalue in 2026 through smooth fluctuations and under the influence of a managed flexibility strategy. Investors would be best served by focusing on well-thought-out currency strategies that include investments in dollars and euros.
This material was prepared by analysts of the international multiservice FinTech product platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any further warranty of completeness, obligation to be timely or to be updated or supplemented.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multiservice marketplace FinTech product platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their services, as well as advertising and consulting services.
According to the results of 2025, PJSC Kremenchug Metal Products Plant (Poltava region) reduced its net profit by 87% compared to the previous year – to UAH 742,947 thousand from UAH 5 million 568,961 thousand.
According to the agenda of the annual general meeting of shareholders, scheduled for March 30 of this year in remote mode, based on the results of the company’s financial and economic activities in 2025, it is proposed to approve a profit of UAH 742,947.69.
At the same time, it is proposed to leave the profit received in 2025 undistributed.
The shareholders intend to terminate the powers of the members of the supervisory board ahead of schedule and elect new ones.
As reported, based on the results of the company’s financial and economic activities in 2024, it was also proposed to leave the profit of UAH 5,568,961 thousand undistributed.
The Kremenchug Metal Products Plant was established in 1994 on the basis of the state-owned enterprise “Kremenchug Plant of Special Metal Structures and Communication Products” through its corporatization. In 2008, the Kryukiv Railway Car Building Works (KRSW) acquired the Kremenchug Metal Products Plant.
According to the NDU for the fourth quarter of 2025, AS Skinest Finants (Estonia), which is a shareholder of KVSZ, owns 75% of PJSC “Kremenchug Metal Products Plant”.
The company’s authorized capital is UAH 1,067,200, and the nominal value of a share is UAH 0.05.
According to its report, INGO Insurance Company (Kyiv) collected UAH 5.05 billion (approximately $120 million) in gross insurance premiums in 2025, which is 48% higher than in 2024 and the highest figure in the company’s history.
The highest growth among the segments was shown by MTPL, which collected UAH 1.24 billion compared to UAH 445 million a year earlier (2.8 times more). The property insurance portfolio (including MAT and liability) amounted to UAH 1.59 billion (+70%), medical insurance (VMI) reached UAH 867 million (+21%), and CASCO auto insurance also reached UAH 867 million (+17%).
According to the company, its share in the property insurance market increased from 12.9% to 17.6%, and its total market share increased from 5% to 7%.
According to Andriy Semchenko, Chairman of the Board of INGO, the company’s net profit for 2025 amounted to UAH 348 million (+36% compared to 2024), assets grew to UAH 2.18 billion (+44%), and equity capital to UAH 1.5 billion (+21%). Insurance reserves amounted to UAH 3.58 billion (+40%). The combined ratio for the year was 96.1%.
Insurance payments in 2025 amounted to UAH 2.21 billion, which is 41% more than a year earlier.
The company paid UAH 223 million in taxes (+39%) to budgets of all levels. The number of insurance contracts increased by 17% to 879,000.
“The result is fully in line with the company’s strategy and financial plans in each area. This also applies to the volume of premiums collected, profitability, and investment activities,” Semchenko said.
The company separately noted its participation in the EBRD’s war risk insurance program, developed in collaboration with international insurance broker Aon. INGO was one of the first local insurers to participate and received the largest coverage limit among Ukrainian insurers – EUR 50 million. In 2025, the program insured domestic freight transportation, leasing and vehicle fleets, as well as intermediate storage in ports for a total amount of approximately EUR 233 million.
The company also reports that over the past year, the share of contracts with individuals in the total portfolio has increased.
In 2026, the company will focus on maintaining a balanced portfolio structure, further developing the retail segment, and participating in international war risk reinsurance programs. A separate task remains to maintain operational efficiency and fulfill financial plans.
INGO Insurance Company was founded in 1994 and is one of the three largest insurers in the country in terms of assets and premiums. It has a reputation as a financially stable partner and a socially important institution for the Ukrainian economy.
On December 29, 2025, the rating agency IBI-Rating confirmed the company’s long-term credit rating at uaAA and its financial stability rating at uaAA.ifr, both with a “developing” outlook.
Global stainless steel production in 2025 increased by 2.1% compared to the previous year, reaching 64.157 million tons from 62.821 million tons.
These figures are provided in a press release from The World Stainless Association (formerly the International Stainless Steel Forum, ISSF).
According to the information, in the fourth quarter of 2025, production reached 16.330 million tons, while in the same period in 2024, 16.198 million tons were produced.
At the same time, stainless steel production in Europe decreased by 1.9% in 2025, to 5.659 million tons. In the US, production increased by 7.6%, to 2.099 million tons.
In Asia (excluding China and South Korea), stainless steel production last year increased by 2.7% to 55.313 million tons, and in China it increased by 3.6% to 40.868 million tons.
In other regions (Brazil, Russia, South Africa, the UK, and Ukraine), production fell by 11.3% to 1.086 million tons.
As reported, global stainless steel production in 2024 increased by 7% compared to 2023, to 62.621 million tons from 58.539 million tons, with production growing in all major regions.
At the same time, stainless steel production in Europe in 2024 increased by 1.5% to 6.088 million tons. In the US, production increased by 6.9% to 1.950 million tons. In Asia (excluding China and South Korea), stainless steel production increased by 6.4% to 7.322 million tons, and in China, it increased by 7.5% to 39.441 million tons. In other regions (Brazil, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, and Indonesia), production increased by 9.2% to 7.820 million tons.
Global stainless steel production in 2023 increased by 4.6% compared to 2022, to 58.444 million tons. Overall, stainless steel production in Europe fell by 6.2% to 5.902 million tons this year, and in the US by 9.6% to 1.824 million tons. Meanwhile, in Asia (excluding China and South Korea), stainless steel production decreased by 7.2% to 6.880 million tons, while in China it increased by 12.6% to 36.676 million tons. Other regions (Brazil, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, and Indonesia) saw a 5.2% decline in production to 7.163 million tons.
Global stainless steel production in 2022 decreased by 5.2% compared to 2021, to 55.255 million tons. At the same time, production in Europe fell by 12.4% to 6.294 million tons, and in the US by 14.8% to 2.017 million tons. In Asia (excluding China and South Korea), stainless steel production decreased by 4.9% to 7.411 million tons, and in China by 2% to 31.975 million tons. Other regions saw a 9.1% decline in production to 7.557 million tons.
According to the results of 2025, Lutsk Agrarian Company (Avesterra Group) produced 56,003 thousand tons of products, which is 6.8% more than in 2024 (52,448 thousand tons), while net revenue grew by 28.2% to UAH 4.77 billion, the company’s press service told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
According to the company’s financial indicators, net profit for the year amounted to UAH 472.68 million, compared to UAH 408.63 million a year earlier.
The group’s press release notes that in 2025, approximately UAH 500 million in taxes were paid to budgets at all levels (approximately UAH 1.5 billion during the period of full-scale war).
“For us, being recognized as one of the best taxpayers is confirmation of our responsible approach to business. Avesterra Group will continue to operate transparently, supporting Ukraine’s food security,” emphasized the company’s CEO, Svitlana Sobipan.
According to the head of the relevant committee of the Verkhovna Rada, Danylo Getmantsev, the company entered the ranking of leaders in terms of taxes paid among meat producers.
According to him, the list of the largest taxpayers in the industry in 2025 also includes Globinsky Meat Processing Plant LLC, Meat Master LLC, Koziatinsky Meat Processing Plant LLC, Agro-Ros LLC, Zhytomyr Meat Processing Plant LLC, Meat-IF LLC, Stovpynski Sausages LLC, and Dmitruk-Foods LLC. In addition to large enterprises, high tax efficiency was demonstrated by Poliana M Farm, Galmyaso Private Enterprise, and a number of individual entrepreneurs.
As reported, Avesterra Group intends to increase its poultry population by 2.5 times to 10 million birds (currently 4.1 million birds). To provide feed for the new capacity, it is planned to modernize the existing feed mill or build a new one, as well as expand the land bank from 3,000 hectares to 25,000 hectares. The development strategy also provides for the creation of its own incubation facility and the formation of a parent flock to complete the full production cycle.
The Avesterra Group was established in January 2025. It includes the Volodymyr-Volynskyi Poultry Farm and the Lutsk Agricultural Company. In June 2025, Avesterra launched a new 30,000 sq m processing plant in Volyn, with investments amounting to EUR 60 million.
Avesterra Group owns infrastructure consisting of 100 poultry houses, a slaughterhouse, and seven branches in the largest cities of Ukraine. The company’s financial statements are audited annually by an international auditor. The business is owned in equal shares by the Dobkin family.
Volodymyr-Volynskyi Poultry Farm accounts for about 5% of the Ukrainian chicken market. It has seven branches: Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Volodymyr. The factory’s infrastructure consists of 100 poultry houses, a slaughterhouse, and a feed mill. The company also has its own land fund of 3,000 hectares, where it grows grains and legumes for the production of feed, as well as industrial crops. The factory employs over 1,500 people.
The national postal operator Ukrposhta has launched auctions for the sale of 20 unused real estate properties with a total area of 32,800 square meters, with a starting price of over UAH 200 million, the company’s CEO Ihor Smelyansky announced on Thursday.
According to his Telegram post, the properties listed on the Prozorro.Prozori platform range from a small building in a village in Zakarpattia to a 5,600-square-meter sorting center in Lviv.
The head of the company expects profits from the sale in the tens of millions of hryvnia, which will go towards investments, as well as savings on the maintenance of these properties and tax payments of over UAH 3 million.
“The funds received from the sale, in accordance with the decision of the shareholder of Ukrposhta, the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development, will be immediately directed to investments in fixed assets,” Smelyansky said.
The CEO of Ukrposhta specified that the sorting center, which was built in the 1920s in the very center of Lviv near the railway station, has a starting price for investors of UAH 56.9 million.
The day before, Ukrposhta also completed the second auction on Prozorro.Prozori for the sale of 716 units of decommissioned transport, receiving UAH 9 million, and is preparing to start the final sale of about 250 more vehicles.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Ukrposhta received a net profit of UAH 257.9 million, which exceeded the figure for the same period in 2024 by 69.2% due to additional income from the sale of the company’s property, which amounted to UAH 168 million.
The national postal operator increased its revenue in the fourth quarter by UAH 10.7 million compared to the same period in 2024, to UAH 3 billion 601.6 million.
