Grain exports by rail to seaports remain stable and account for 91% of total rail shipments of agricultural products, according to analysts at Spike Brokers.
According to monitoring data for February, 1.368 million tons of grain were transported to ports, which is 0.8% more than in the same period last year. The TIS terminal in the port of Chornomorsk showed the most positive dynamics (+54%), while the Danube ports, in particular Izmail, recorded a significant drop in volumes (-60%). Currently, more than 11,000 railcars with grain are moving towards the ports of Greater Odessa, and the average daily load on the network in this direction has increased to 1,172 railcars per day.
“The western corridor actually became the main channel for oil exports by rail in February, and the share of the border in this segment increased to 66%,” analysts noted.
At the same time, road exports of agricultural products in February amounted to 185,000 tons. Geographically, the Polish direction dominates (about 50% of the flow), where 4,000-5,300 tons of cargo are processed daily.
Structurally, the road channel is focused on value-added products: in the first 19 days of the month, 15,600 tons of poultry meat were exported, as well as significant volumes of bakery products (6,400 tons) and confectionery (4,500 tons).
In the oil rail transport segment, there has been a radical shift towards land crossings: cross-border exports increased by 112% to 56.9 thousand tons. The largest increase was recorded at the Chop (+410%) and Mostyska II (+310%) crossings. In contrast, sea exports of oil by rail fell by 36% (to 29.1 thousand tons), and the share of ports in this segment fell to 34%.
A similar trend is observed for meal, where 75% of the volume (113.6 thousand tons) is shipped across land borders, Spike Brokers concluded.
Moderate rain and wet snow are expected in Ukraine over the next two days, with black ice in some places on the country’s roads, except in the south. Nighttime and daytime temperatures will range from 2° below zero to 3° above zero, according to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center.
On Wednesday, February 25, there will be light wet snow and rain, with moderate precipitation in the far south, at night, and in the east of the country. At night and in the morning, there will be fog in most northern, central, and southern regions. There will be icy conditions on the country’s roads, except in the south. The wind will be mainly northwesterly, 5-10 m/s.
Temperatures at night and during the day will range from 2° below zero to 3° above zero (during the day in Zakarpattia and in the south, 1-6° above zero).
In Kyiv on February 25, there will be light wet snow and rain, with icy roads in some places, northwesterly winds of 5-10 m/s. Temperatures at night and during the day will range from 0 to 2°C.
According to data from the Boris Sreznevsky Central Geophysical Observatory in Kyiv, on February 25, the highest daytime temperature was 15.5°C in 1990, and the lowest nighttime temperature was -20.7°C in 1917.
On Thursday, February 26, moderate rain and wet snow in the southeastern part, no precipitation in the rest of the territory. On the roads of the country, except for the south, there will be icy patches in some places. The wind will be mainly northern, 5-10 m/s.
Temperatures at night and during the day will range from 2° below zero to 3° above zero (at night in the western, northern, and most central regions, 1-6°, in the Carpathians, up to 9° below zero; during the day in Transcarpathia and Crimea, 1-6° above zero).
No precipitation is expected in Kyiv on February 26, with icy patches on the roads in some places. The wind will be from the north, 5-10 m/s. The temperature at night will be 2-4° below zero; during the day, around 0°.
In the Medium and Long-Term Market section of the UEEX, trading in the resource continued in February and March 2026. A total of 9 companies formed positions for the sale or purchase of natural gas: Ukrnafta, MC Ukrnaftoburinnya, Ukrzaliznytsia, Tepla, JV BNK, etc. The section sold 1.58 mcm of natural gas. Natural gas was sold exclusively for delivery to the GTS in February and March. The prices of the sold items were in the range of UAH 19718-21150 per thousand cubic meters excluding VAT.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids on the intraday and day-ahead markets. In total, 36 deals were concluded with a total volume of 826 thousand cubic meters.
The gas markets started the week with a decline amid a sharp improvement in temperature forecasts for Europe and the UK by the end of February. In addition to the growth of wind power generation, this should limit the demand for gas in the electricity sector.
Geopolitical risk premiums were optimistic on Wednesday afternoon, when Iran temporarily closed part of the Strait of Hormuz, apparently in response to the increased US military presence in the Arabian Sea. Iranian news agencies reported that parts of the strait were closed for several hours (for the safety of navigation) to allow the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to conduct military exercises. As a result, gas prices strengthened across the curve in the last session on Thursday, with the Dutch M+1 contract rising by 16% in intraday trade, supported by renewed tensions between the US and Iran, which further increased geopolitical risk and contributed to the rapid conclusion of contracts. The price increase became gradually more muted further down the curve, and the impact largely disappeared starting with contracts for summer 2027. Possible delays in LNG deliveries, the development of trade agreements, and the expansion of the global economy should not be dismissed as factors that contribute to growth in the long run.
Warmer temperatures next week will support stock levels in EU gas storage facilities, which are currently 33% full, compared to the 5-year average of ~49%. The key countries in terms of storage capacity – Germany, France and the Netherlands – are also depleted at 23%, 23.6% and 14.3% respectively, with the Netherlands facing potentially complete depletion by the end of winter.
Future growth in U.S. LNG supplies continues to ease concerns. Golden Pass (US) is close to starting LNG production, having received 300 million cubic feet of gas on Wednesday, February 18; the market is pricing in the possibility of first shipments in early March. Importantly, this is one of the largest export terminals in the US, so every step towards commissioning has a significant impact on expectations of the LNG balance for Europe.
Imports of natural gas from the European direction averaged about 25.3 mcm per day and were unchanged from the previous week. Imports were present from all neighboring European countries. The main imports were from Poland. Exports from the customs warehouse amounted to about 1.3 mcm per day, in the direction of Moldova. Ukraine’s storage facilities contained 9.78 (-2.2%) bcm of natural gas. Withdrawals amounted to about 45 million cubic meters per day.
Israel will provide communities in the Kyiv region, which is suffering from Russian shelling of energy infrastructure, with 117 mobile generators, according to Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Michael Brodsky.
“Foreign Minister Gideon Saar had a telephone conversation with Rabbi Meir Stambler, head of the Federation of Jewish Communities of Ukraine (FJCU). The conversation took place on the fourth anniversary of Russia’s war against Ukraine,” Brodsky wrote on Telegram on Tuesday.
According to him, during the conversation, Minister Saar informed the rabbi that on February 25, Israel would transfer 117 mobile generators to the Kyiv region.
During the conversation, Minister Saar inquired about the situation in Ukraine and the condition of the country’s Jewish communities, and wished them a happy Purim holiday.
The direct and projected losses to Ukraine’s economy from the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation in terms of lost revenue are estimated at $1.7 trillion, and the loss of added value at $0.6 trillion, according to the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) analytical center.
KSE analysts specified that the updated estimate covers the period from February 24, 2022, to December 31, 2025, and takes into account forecasts until the end of 2026.
Compared to previous data for July 2024, the estimate of revenue losses increased by $536 billion (from $1.164 trillion), and value-added losses — by $214.3 billion (from $385.7 billion).
“The increase is due to an update in methodology, the use of new data at the company and sector levels, and an extension of the analysis period, which now covers losses through the end of 2026,” KSE explained.
According to the report, the current loss of added value is already more than three times higher than Ukraine’s pre-war GDP for 2021. The most affected sectors were trade ($696.3 billion), industry, construction, and services ($645.6 billion), and agriculture ($81.9 billion). Losses of key infrastructure in the energy sector reached $75.3 billion, and in transport — $60.2 billion.
The war also caused significant additional costs, particularly in the housing sector ($26.8 billion, mainly rent), demining ($24.6 billion), and dismantling destroyed facilities ($13 billion).
Government spending on social support increased by $7.5 billion.
The report was prepared by the KSE Institute’s analytical team in cooperation with the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development of Ukraine, other relevant authorities, and the National Bank of Ukraine, using World Bank methodology.
The total cost of rebuilding and reconstructing Ukraine over the next 10 years is estimated at $588 billion, which is $64 billion more than last year and almost three times the nominal GDP for 2025, according to the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development of Ukraine.
According to the fifth assessment of damage and needs (RDNA5) presented by the ministry and the World Bank, the largest amount of investment is needed in the transport sector — more than $96 billion over a decade to modernize roads, railways, and ports. The needs of the housing sector are estimated at $90 billion (14% of the housing stock has been destroyed or damaged), and those of the energy and water sectors at $17.5 billion.
“We need $15.25 billion to implement priority projects in 2026. We have secured $5.8 billion in funding, but the shortfall remains critical at $9.5 billion,” the ministry quoted Deputy Prime Minister for Recovery and Minister of Community and Territorial Development Oleksiy Kuleba as saying.
According to the ministry, the heat supply sector remains critically underfunded: with a need of $1.6 billion for 2026, less than 1% of the funding has been secured. There is also a significant shortage of funds in the energy, housing construction, and transport sectors, where only a third of the needs are currently covered.
The Ministry of Development reminded that three key priorities have been identified in the context of the war: energy security of communities (protection of facilities and distributed generation), housing restoration, and logistics support.
An installation with an anti-drone net became a symbolic element of the report presentation. The ministry emphasized that hundreds of kilometers of roads in frontline regions are already equipped with such protective structures.
The RDNA5 report was prepared jointly with the World Bank, the European Commission, and the UN. It covers the period from February 24, 2022, to December 31, 2025.
