The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its forecast for the electricity deficit in Ukraine this year from 4% to 3% and next year from 2% to 1% thanks to rapid repairs and the development of distributed generation.
“Quick repairs to maneuverable generation and energy infrastructure, the development of distributed electricity generation and renewable energy capacity, against the backdrop of sustained electricity imports, allow us to improve the estimate of the electricity deficit over the forecast horizon,” the NBU stated in its Inflation Report for April 2025, comparing it with the January report.
According to Nabank, the deficit will almost disappear in 2027 (1%).
Thus, the report states that the impact of energy supply constraints on real GDP growth will decrease, and annual electricity imports in 2025-2027 will amount to about $0.5 billion.
As reported, at the end of 2024, the Ministry of Energy reported that the total capacity of distributed gas generation facilities connected in Ukraine last year amounted to 967 MW, of which 835 MW were commissioned in 2024.
39 years since the Chernobyl disaster
On April 26, 1986, at 1:23 a.m. Kyiv time, the fourth power unit of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) suffered the worst man-made disaster in human history. As a result of a failed experiment to test safety systems, a reactor explosion occurred, leading to a massive release of radioactive substances into the atmosphere.
How the accident happened
The experiment on the fourth power unit was conducted to test the operation of the turbine generator in the event of a loss of external power supply. Due to a series of violations of instructions, design errors, and incorrect actions by personnel, the reactor lost stability, causing a thermal explosion and subsequent fire.
The first firefighters and plant workers who arrived at the scene of the accident were exposed to powerful radioactive radiation, often without adequate protection.
The scale of the disaster
In the first days after the accident, a radioactive cloud covered Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia, and then spread throughout Europe.
Approximately 116,000 people were urgently evacuated from Pripyat and the 30-kilometer exclusion zone.
Subsequently, another 220,000 people were resettled from contaminated areas.
According to experts, radioactive emissions from Chernobyl were dozens of times higher than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Consequences of the disaster
Human casualties:
Immediately after the accident, about 30 people died from acute radiation sickness and injuries.
According to long-term forecasts, the effects of radiation have led to an increase in thyroid disease, cancer, and cardiovascular disease in tens of thousands of people.
Environmental consequences:
For decades, the exclusion zone remained extremely dangerous for habitation.
Some areas still have high levels of radiation contamination today.
Economic consequences:
The USSR suffered enormous economic losses estimated at billions of dollars.
Reconstruction work, the construction of a sarcophagus over the destroyed reactor, and the resettlement of the population all placed a heavy burden on the economy.
Global consequences
Rethinking security policy: After Chernobyl, nuclear power plant safety standards were revised around the world.
Intensification of the anti-nuclear movement: European countries began to develop programs to phase out nuclear energy or tighten controls over it.
Increased international cooperation: the disaster highlighted the need for global coordination in the event of nuclear accidents. New international agreements on nuclear safety were established.
The presidents of Ukraine and the United States, Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump, held a productive meeting in Rome, Politico reports, citing a White House representative.
“President Trump and President Zelensky met privately today and had a very productive discussion,“ White House Communications Director Stephen Chung said.
“More details about the meeting will be provided later,” he said.
The presidents arrived in Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis. Ukrainian presidential spokesman Sergei Nikiforov announced the meeting between Zelensky and Trump before the start of the funeral ceremony.
According to media reports, the US and Ukrainian presidents may continue talks after the funeral of Pope Francis.
As of April 25, Ukraine had exported 34.74 million tons of grains and legumes since the beginning of the 2024-2025 marketing year (July-June), of which 1.916 million tons were shipped since the beginning of the current month, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing information from the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of April 25 last year, total shipments amounted to 40.289 million tons.
At the same time, since the beginning of the current season, 13.714 million tons of wheat (15.404 million tons in 2023/2024 MY) have been exported, 2.258 million tons of barley (2.178 million tons), 10.8 thousand tons of rye (1.2 thousand tons), and 18.252 million tons of corn (22.231 million tons). (1.2 thousand tons), and corn – 18.252 million tons (22.231 million tons).
Total exports of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of April 25 are estimated at 58 thousand tons (in 2023/24 MY – 85.7 thousand tons), including wheat flour – 53.8 thousand tons (81 thousand tons).
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts that gas imports will rise to $2.9 billion in 2025 due to Russia’s destruction of gas infrastructure, which will be partially financed by international partners.
“In the forecast period, production will gradually recover, but it will be insufficient to fully cover the domestic needs of the economy, including industry, housing and communal services, and households,” the National Bank said in its Inflation Report for April 2025.
The regulator expects gas procurement needs to gradually decline in 2026 to about $1.1 billion and fall to $0.4 billion in 2027.
“The continuing electricity deficit and losses in the gas production industry will hamper GDP recovery over the forecast horizon and increase the dependence of the energy and industrial sectors of the economy on imports, which will generate corresponding price risks that may be passed on to consumer prices,” the NBU added.
It is noted that significant risks of further destruction of energy infrastructure remain, and their realization could further dampen GDP growth and increase inflationary pressures. At the same time, the possibility of a faster recovery of the electricity or gas infrastructure or the introduction of new capacities remains a positive factor for the forecast.
As reported, during three years of full-scale invasion, Russia has carried out more than 30 massive complex attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities, causing billions of dollars in damage.
According to the former head of the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator (OGTSU), Serhiy Makogon, given the volume of its own production, Ukraine will need to import 5.5-6.3 billion cubic meters of gas by the start of the heating season on November 1, 2025, which will require approximately $2.5-3 billion. According to his estimates, by the start of the next heating season, it is necessary to have at least 9 billion cubic meters of reserves (excluding buffer gas) in underground gas storage facilities, as this year’s experience has shown that starting the season with lower reserves is extremely risky, since by the end of the season reserves fell to approximately 0.68 billion cubic meters.
In turn, Dmitry Abramovich, a member of the board and commercial director of the Naftogaz group, said at the end of March that Ukraine needs to import 4.5-4.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas by November 1 this year.
Since the beginning of this year, Naftogaz has contracted 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas: 800 million cubic meters were urgently imported at the beginning of the year, 400 million cubic meters will arrive in the country in preparation for next winter, and another 300 million cubic meters of LNG were purchased by Naftogaz from Poland’s ORLEN. The company is also negotiating with the government and international financial institutions to attract EUR 1 billion in financing to purchase more than 2 billion cubic meters of gas.
According to Makogon, guaranteed gas import capacity is approximately 50 million cubic meters per day, so it will take three months to import 4.6 billion cubic meters of gas and four months to import 5.6-6.3 billion cubic meters, assuming 100% capacity utilization, which is commercially difficult to achieve.
Thus, he believes that in order to import the necessary volumes by November 1, it is necessary to start importing significant volumes of gas as early as May.
