If current demographic trends continue, the EU population will age and begin to decline after the middle of the decade, and in a scenario of zero net migration, the decline could be sharp, to approximately 294 million by 2100, according to calculations based on Eurostat projections (EUROPOP2023).
According to Eurostat’s baseline scenario, which assumes continued positive net migration, the EU population will grow from 446.7 million in 2022 to a peak of 453.3 million in 2026, after which it will gradually decline to 419.5 million by 2100 (down 6.1% from 2022).
At the same time, Eurostat also publishes alternative scenarios (sensitivity tests), including a zero net migration option. In this scenario, the total population of the EU by the end of the century is significantly lower – estimated at around 294 million people, which means a reduction of about one-third from mid-2020s levels. These differences are also highlighted in visualizations based on Eurostat data, as cited by regional media.
The key driver of population decline is negative natural growth. According to Eurostat estimates, between 2022 and 2100, approximately 291.3 million people could be born in the EU, with 416.6 million deaths (a net reduction due to natural movement of approximately 125.3 million), while cumulative net migration in the baseline scenario will partially offset the losses, adding about 98.1 million people.
At the country level, the differences are even more noticeable. In Eurostat’s baseline scenario, the largest population declines by 2100 are expected in Latvia and Lithuania (more than a third), as well as in Greece. At the same time, a number of countries, on the contrary, show population growth due to migration, including Luxembourg and Ireland.
It is noted separately that for Croatia, Eurostat’s baseline scenario predicts a decline in population from about 3.86 million in 2022 to about 2.82 million in 2100, while in scenarios with stricter migration assumptions, the final figures may be lower.
In the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, perceptions of the EU and the US are formed not through their own experience, but through the prism of Russian propaganda and information isolation. This was stated by sociologist, director of the Active Group research company Oleksandr Poznyi during his speech at the Forum on Countering Russian Propaganda and Disinformation, held on December 17-18, 2025 in Brussels.
In his speech, the expert relied on the results of sociological studies conducted in 2023-2025 and emphasized that residents of the temporarily occupied territories are virtually deprived of direct communication with Europe and the United States. In such circumstances, the perception of the West is formed mainly through narratives imposed by the occupation authorities. “For many people in the TOT, Europe and the United States are not partners or allies of Ukraine, but abstract, distant actors whose image is almost entirely shaped by the Russian media,” said Poznyi.
According to the sociologist, Russian propaganda systematically forms two dominant images of the West. The first one is aggressive and hostile, which allegedly “controls Ukraine”, “provokes war” and “uses Ukrainians in its own interests”. The second is cynical and indifferent, “tired of Ukraine” and ready to sacrifice its territories for the sake of stability. “These narratives contradict each other but coexist perfectly. They are not about logic, they are about emotion and fear,” explained Poznyi.
As a result, a part of the population has a distorted view of the role of the EU and the US, which has nothing to do with the real policy of supporting Ukraine, but directly affects public sentiment and expectations for the future. One of the key reasons for this perception is complete information isolation. Ukrainian and Western sources of information are blocked or criminalized, and any alternative viewpoints are viewed as “extremism” or “espionage.”
“People cannot verify information. They are forced to live inside an information bubble where the West is an image, not a reality,” the sociologist emphasized. According to him, even those TOT residents who support Ukraine internally often avoid talking about Europe or the United States, as these topics are considered “dangerous” and may arouse suspicion on the part of the occupation structures.
During the forum in Brussels, these observations were presented as a serious challenge for European policy. According to Poznyi, the perception of the EU and the US in the occupied territories will directly affect the processes of de-occupation and reintegration in the future. “If people have been hearing for years that Europe is an enemy or a traitor, these perceptions do not automatically disappear after de-occupation,” he emphasized.
The Forum on Countering Russian Propaganda and Disinformation, held on December 17-18, 2025 in Brussels at the European Parliament and the European Economic and Social Committee, was dedicated to strengthening Europe’s cognitive and information resilience in the face of hybrid threats.
The event brought together representatives of European institutions, think tanks, media and civil society from Ukraine and the EU. The event was aimed at outlining the scope and mechanisms of Russian propaganda, showing its destructive impact on public consciousness, and discussing ways to counter it.
The share of EU residents aged 16-74 who used generative artificial intelligence tools (such as ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, etc.) in 2025 was 32.7%, according to the European Union’s statistical service (Eurostat).
According to Eurostat, such services were most often used for personal purposes (25.1% of respondents), less often for work (15.1%) and formal education (9.4%).
Among EU countries, the highest prevalence of generative AI use was recorded in Denmark (48.4%), Estonia (46.6%), and Malta (46.5%), while the lowest rates were recorded in Romania (17.8%), Italy (19.9%), and Bulgaria (22.5%).
According to Euronews, citing European statistics, in a sample of 33 European countries, the highest level of use was recorded in Norway (56%), and the lowest in Turkey (17%); The group of countries with penetration above 40% included Denmark, Estonia, Malta, Iceland, Finland, Croatia, Belgium, Sweden, Slovakia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Switzerland.
Ukraine does not appear in this European comparison. At the same time, according to a KIIS survey (fieldwork period: February 14-March 4, 2025), 26% of adult Ukrainians had practical experience using AI, with 17% doing so regularly (including 12% daily or almost daily).
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/32-zhyteliv-yes-u-2025-roczi-vykorystovuvaly-shi/
The Cabinet of Ministers has introduced a zero export quota for 2026 on the export of ferrous scrap (scrap metal), a strategic raw material for the metallurgical industry.
The relevant changes are set out in its Resolution No. 1795 “On the approval of lists of goods subject to licensing for export and import, and quotas for 2026” dated December 31, 2025.
According to the document, the quotas for goods whose export is subject to licensing are listed in Appendix 1. In particular, a zero quota has been set for ferrous metal waste and scrap; ferrous metal ingots for remelting (charge ingots) under code 7204 (according to the Ukrainian Classification of Goods for Foreign Economic Activity). Zero quotas are also set for copper waste and scrap under code 7404 00 and for electrical and electronic waste and scrap used primarily for the extraction of precious metals under codes 8549 21 00 00 and 8549 29 00 00.
Dmytro Kysilevsky, deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Economic Development, welcomed the government’s decision in a comment on his Facebook page, noting that strategically important raw materials should be processed in Ukraine, rather than being exported abroad without control, and should create jobs, added value, and tax revenues here.
According to the expert, this principle is one of the fundamentals of economic success, as proven by dozens of developed countries. Ukraine also has successful experience in implementing it: duties on sunflower seeds and a moratorium on roundwood once created entirely new industries and attracted billions in investments. And the recently introduced duties on soybeans and rapeseed have already significantly increased the volume of domestic processing, the deputy head of the parliamentary committee emphasized.
“The government’s decision to set zero export quotas for industrial timber and scrap from Ukraine for 2026 is an important example of the implementation of this principle. I would like to thank Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and Minister of Economy Oleksiy Sobolev for their position and understanding of national economic interests,” wrote the MP.
Kysilevsky explained that it is profitable for the state to keep all scrap metal within the country, since 1 ton of scrap metal processed in Ukraine into finished products generates approximately UAH 15,000 in taxes. On the other hand, 1 ton of exported scrap metal without customs duties actually generates no taxes (within 100 hryvnia per ton), since scrap metal procurement remains largely a “shadow” business.
He noted that scrap metal exports to the EU are de facto a scheme to circumvent customs duties, with losses to the budget amounting to about UAH 3.5 billion per year. Currently, the customs duty in the EU is 0, while in other countries it is EUR 180. Scrap metal from Ukraine is mainly re-exported outside the EU. If the 380,000 tons of scrap metal exported in 2025 were processed in Ukraine, the state would receive UAH 5.7 billion in taxes.
“From 2026, the EU will introduce the so-called CBAM ”carbon duty.” From the point of view of Ukraine’s accession to the EU and compliance with environmental requirements for industry, it is important to keep all scrap metal within the country. After all, scrap metal is a scarce raw material for smelting steel with lower CO2 emissions. Ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal is a strategic raw material for ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, which are important basic sectors of the economy. Of course, companies that want to profit from the uncontrolled export of raw materials are opposed to these decisions. But raw material exports are a niche for poor countries. Ukraine has abandoned this model, hopefully for good,” Kysilevsky emphasized.
The MP added that one of the tasks for the Verkhovna Rada in 2026 is to enshrine the decision to restrict the export of strategic raw materials in law. These restrictions should remain in force as long as external circumstances and the need for recovery require it.
As reported, in May 2025, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine initiated the introduction of a licensing and quota regime for the export of ferrous metal scrap (scrap metal) with a zero quota. The relevant provision was included in the draft government resolution “On Amendments to Appendix 1 to the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 1481 of December 24, 2024,” which was then published by the Ministry of Economy for public discussion.
Deputy Director of the state-owned enterprise “Ukrpromzovnishchexpertiza” Serhiy Povazhnyuk, in an interview with telegraf.com.ua, said that Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises could increase steel production by 17% in 2026, to 8.9 million tons from 7.6 million tons in 2025, provided that the scrap metal shortage is overcome. At the same time, he noted that the Ukrainian metallurgical industry is experiencing an acute shortage of ferrous metal scrap, in particular due to the growth in the volume of this raw material being exported abroad.
According to his calculations, 1 ton of scrap metal, which is processed into metal products at Interpipe’s facilities, for which scrap is the main raw material, brings the state UAH 7,500 in taxes. In addition, 1 ton of scrap metal used at Metinvest Group’s plants generates about UAH 9,300 in tax revenues to budgets at all levels.
As Povazhnyuk emphasized, this is a direct benefit that the state receives by keeping all scrap metal in the country and processing it into steel. In addition, such processing has a multiplier effect on the entire economy, as it stimulates growth in related industries, such as the production of iron ore raw materials, coke, and ferroalloys.
“According to our data, in 2024, the largest exporting companies, which accounted for almost 90% of Ukrainian scrap metal exports, exported a total of 247,000 tons of raw materials abroad, paying a total of only UAH 12.3 million in taxes. Thus, the state received an average of UAH 50 in taxes for each ton of scrap metal exported. The official number of employees in these companies was only a few dozen people,” the expert said.
As reported, in January-November 2025, scrap metal collection companies in Ukraine increased their exports of ferrous metal scrap by 45.3% compared to the same period in 2024, from 261,578 tons to 380,165 tons.
In 2024, Ukraine’s scrap metal collection companies increased their exports of ferrous metal scrap by 60.7% compared to 2023, to 293,190 thousand tons from 182,465 thousand tons. In monetary terms, scrap exports for the year increased by 73.2% to $91.311 million from $52.723 million.
Earlier, Valentin Makarenko, chairman of the board of Interpipe Vtormet, said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine that ferrous metal scrap exports have always been and remain a threat to the Ukrainian metallurgical industry, as they exacerbate the shortage of this raw material on the domestic market. In addition, this problem is compounded by the fact that during the war, the area suitable for scrap collection is shrinking.
“At present, I do not see any other effective mechanisms for stabilizing the market and reducing scrap exports, except for an administrative ban on the export of this strategic raw material outside Ukraine at the state level,” the chairman of the board concluded.
China has abolished a 30-year tax exemption on condoms and a range of contraceptives and started imposing a standard VAT of 13% on them from January 1, 2026, media reported. The decision is seen as part of a package of measures to stimulate the birth rate amid a continuing decline in the number of births and an aging population.
Earlier, Chinese authorities also announced the launch of a nationwide childcare subsidy program – the payment amounts to 3,600 yuan a year (about $500) for each child under the age of three.
In addition, the government encouraged universities to introduce “love education” courses – training focused on fostering positive attitudes toward marriage, family and having children.
According to Serbian Economist, the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US Department of the Treasury (OFAC) has issued a temporary license to Serbian oil company NIS, controlled by Russian shareholders, to continue operating until January 23, 2026, said Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Djedovic-Handanovic.
According to her, the decision means the resumption of operations at the Pančevo refinery after a 36-day pause. U.S. restrictions, which came into effect in the fall, had earlier blocked oil supplies via the refinery’s only crude import route – through Croatian pipeline operator JANAF.
NIS operates a refinery with a capacity of 4.8 million tons per year and the largest network of gas stations in Serbia (327 stations), providing about 80% of fuel consumption in the domestic market.
Earlier OFAC gave NIS a deadline of March 24 to negotiate the sale of the Russian owners’ stake; in the company’s capital structure Gazprom owns 11.3%, Gazprom Neft – 44.9%, the Serbian state owns 29.9%. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic reported that Gazprom was in talks with Hungary’s MOL about a possible deal.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2042
