Germany’s central bank does not expect the country’s GDP to grow in April-June 2025 after an unexpected rise in the first quarter. The economy has “probably stagnated” and the underlying trend is still characterized as “generally weak,” according to the Bundesbank’s monthly report.
The central bank warned that the introduction of 30% import duties recently announced by US President Donald Trump would create a “significant risk of economic decline.”
“In the short term, Germany’s export industry will face additional obstacles in the form of US tariff policy,” the Bundesbank said in a report.
Germany’s economy grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous three months. The GDP growth rate was the highest since the third quarter of 2022. However, this increase is largely due to attempts by businesses and exporters to get ahead of US duties.
Preliminary data on the dynamics of Germany’s GDP in the second quarter will be published on July 30.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center made a video analysis of the prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies, see more in the video – https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=F4IOLdLuVbYmEh5P
A studio of comfortable lingerie by the Ukrainian brand brabrabra is scheduled to open in the capital’s Ocean Mall, the company’s press service reports.
“The brabrabra brand encourages everyone to choose themselves and comfortable underwear for themselves soon in a new studio at the Ocean Mall. This location will provide more opportunities to see the maximum variety of lingerie and leisurewear collections – completely different designs, fabrics and comfortable designs that guarantee a sense of comfort for everyone,” the press release says.
The studio will be located on 65 square meters. It is noted that the brabrabra brand has a wide range of sizes, from A to J and from XS to 4XL, which covers more than 90% of women’s bra requests. Professional brafitters from the brand’s team will help you determine the right size and choose comfortable underwear.
Ocean Mall is a retail resort shopping center. The total area is 300 thousand square meters and has a parking lot for 4 thousand cars. The mall has 800 shops and 50 restaurants. Among the largest tenants are Silpo grocery supermarket, flagship stores of the world’s largest retailers in the segments of fashion, sports, and home furnishings. More than 30 thousand square meters in Ocean Mall are dedicated to entertainment, including the Galaxy amusement park for the whole family and a seven-screen multiplex cinema.
The European pharmaceutical association Medicines for Europe, the Ministry of Health, and the Association of Ukrainian Pharmaceutical Manufacturers (AVLU) have signed a memorandum of partnership in the field of critical medicines. The memorandum was signed on the sidelines of the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC2025) in Rome last week.
According to Adrian Van Den Goevaert, CEO of Medicines for Europe, Ukraine’s participation in the Critical Medicines Alliance and its experience in sharing responses, together with regulatory integration into EU systems based on alignment with EU technical and procedural rules, anti-corruption measures, the creation of an independent medicines agency in Ukraine, and mutual recognition of GMP certificates are becoming key priorities for EU-Ukraine pharmaceutical cooperation.
For his part, Anatoliy Reder, CEO of the pharmaceutical company Interchem (Odessa), noted that the memorandum will enable Ukrainian pharmaceutical companies to participate in the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for EU countries.
“The memorandum shows that Ukraine is highly developed in the field of pharmaceutical production and is ready to participate in supplying critical medicines to EU countries. We already have certain positions from the list of critical medicines and can very quickly ensure the production of the rest. We can produce APIs in the quantities required by the EU,” he said.
According to Reder, the production of APIs and drugs from the critical list will be convenient for both Ukraine and the EU.
“Ukraine has a highly developed and modern production control system. The requirements for the production of medicines in Ukraine are sometimes higher than in European countries, so we can ensure reliable supplies of high-quality products,” he said.
At the same time, Reder noted that in order to launch a project for the production of critical medicines, European manufacturers need support from European official bodies so that they can include Ukrainian production sites in their dossiers as additional sources of APIs.
Medicines for Europe, MEMORANDUM, Ministry of Health, PARTNERSHIP, PHARMACEUTICAL MANUFACTURERS
In 2025, the 10-year period of cooperation between Nova Poshta and CEO Oleksandr Bulba ends, the company’s press service reports.
It is noted that under Bulba’s leadership, the company has achieved the most ambitious results.
“Between 2015 and 2025, Nova Poshta increased its annual delivery volume from 93 million to 500 million (as planned for the end of 2025). By the end of this year, the company’s network will cover 50 thousand service points across the country, 25 times more than at the beginning of cooperation with Bulba. Parcels in Ukraine are consistently delivered in less than 24 hours, and the international business is showing steady growth.
The press release emphasizes that the period of full-scale war deserves special attention. Despite the mobilization of the team, constant attacks on infrastructure and destroyed logistics routes, the company not only maintained its stability but also continued to develop, introduce new services and support the country’s economy.
“The success of Nova Poshta is the result of the consistent work of the CEO and the large team he led. For many years in a row, Oleksandr Bulba has been recognized as one of the most effective leaders in Ukraine. At the same time, any success comes at a price, and even the most successful projects need a fresh look. That’s why the company’s co-owners, together with Oleksandr, made a joint decision: 2025 will be his final year as CEO of
Nova Poshta. Until the end of the year, Bulba will continue to lead the company, focusing on the implementation of the approved development strategy,” the release said.
Thus, on December 31, 2025, Nova Poshta will have a new CEO. The co-owners and the Supervisory Board express their deep gratitude to Bulba for the years of fruitful cooperation and his invaluable contribution to the company’s development.
The Verkhovna Rada has supported a bill to introduce a 10% export duty on soybeans, kohlrabi and rapeseed (crushed and uncrushed) with an annual 1% reduction in the rate by 2030, to 5%, MP Serhiy Labaziuk (For the Future parliamentary faction) said in a telegram channel.
The MP added that at the same time a special fund will be created – the State Fund for Support of Agricultural Producers, which, given the existing export volumes (without adjustment for a 10% decrease in value/volumes) of oilseeds, will amount to almost $500 million.
“But with the increase in processing, changes in export prices, and a decrease in the volume of raw materials, revenues will fall. And it will be difficult not to give part of the revenues to the state budget. Therefore, if we manage to raise UAH 3-5 billion for the fund, it will be a victory,” Labaziuk said.
MP Oleksiy Honcharenko (European Solidarity faction) clarified in a Telegram that 245 MPs supported the draft law.
“This is just a shame. They sneaked in the draft law on industrial pollution – duties for farmers. They promised to serve the people, but they serve schemes,” he commented on the document.
As reported, the “soybean amendments” are changes to the Tax Code of Ukraine introduced at the end of 2017. They concerned the procedure for VAT (value-added tax) refunds for soybean and rapeseed exports.
For several years in a row, Stepan Kapshuk, CEO of the Ukroliyaprom association, proposed to ban the export of 50% of the rapeseed crop from the country to increase the utilization of Ukrainian processing capacities, which, in particular in 2024, were significantly short of raw materials.
Subsequently, Dmytro Kysylevskyi, deputy chairman of the parliamentary committee on economic development, prepared draft law No. 13134, which, with amendment No. 40, provided for the introduction of a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans. He argued that Ukrainian soybean and rapeseed processing plants are underutilized by 35%, and if they are used, Ukraine will receive an additional UAH 7.3 billion in state budget revenues to finance the Armed Forces, and an additional $238 million will allow for the construction of dozens of plants and the creation of thousands of new jobs.
A number of associations criticized the idea of the draft law “On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine on Expanding Patient Access to Medicines Subject to Procurement by a Person Authorized to Make Procurement in the Healthcare Sector by Concluding Managed Access Agreements”, which provided for the imposition of duties on the export of soybeans and rapeseed from Ukraine. According to the business associations, they are discriminatory towards small and medium-sized producers, aim to increase the profits of processors at the expense of small and medium-sized farmers and violate the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
On June 18, the Verkhovna Rada did not support this initiative.
Issue No. 1 – July 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market: July opens a new stage for currency strategy
The beginning of the second half of 2025 brings a number of systemic signals that may affect the long-term currency strategy of both governments and private investors.
On a global level, the US dollar is losing its status as an absolute “safe haven currency”: according to Goldman Sachs, it is increasingly behaving like a risky asset, falling along with stock markets and bonds. This undermines its attractiveness in the eyes of investors and changes the logic of foreign exchange reserves: the dollar’s share of global foreign reserves is declining, while the euro, franc, and pound are growing. All these changes are not yet dramatic, but they are no longer random.
In Ukraine, the foreign exchange market is welcoming July with an increase in demand for cash and a shift in the focus of the population from the dollar to the euro. In June, Ukrainians bought $577 million worth of euros, exceeding dollar sales by only $44 million: the euro’s share of demand dominates the dollar, especially in the cash segment. Ukrainians are trying to catch the upward trend of the euro to increase their savings.
The Index of Devaluation Expectations of Ukrainians rose to 139.3 points, indicating a gradual return of nervousness at the household level. Unless there are strong, stable signals that the hryvnia’s support potential remains, Ukrainians’ sentiment may become a key source of pressure on the hryvnia, and household demand may become a driver of the devaluation trend. The combination of these factors may lead to restrictive measures on foreign exchange transactions by the banking regulator or foreign exchange market participants themselves.
At the same time, the fundamental stability of the hryvnia is maintained thanks to a strong resource of external support: in June, Ukraine received more than $4 billion in foreign exchange assistance, which allowed the NBU to increase its reserves to $45.1 billion, despite almost $3 billion in foreign exchange interventions. This allows the NBU to maintain control over the exchange rate without strict restrictions, while gradually testing options for currency liberalization.
The intersection of these factors is a new phase of currency positioning. The strategies that worked in 2022-2024 no longer guarantee stability. The dollar is no longer a “reinforced concrete base,” although it retains a key settlement role in international trade, including for Ukraine, and the euro is gaining weight even without fundamental advantages. However, the European Union, which faces the risk of trade duties being imposed by the US administration, may sooner or later use mechanisms to rebalance the euro against the dollar to offset the exchange rate factor of rising duties and maintain the price attractiveness and competitiveness of European exports. This demonstrates that the current trends are only signs of changes that could reverse in the opposite direction if significant circumstances change.
The foreign exchange market is increasingly becoming a field of scenario planning that requires flexibility, the ability to maneuver quickly, and the rejection of rigid exchange rate fixes.
Special attention should be paid to tracking the volume and dynamics of assistance from Ukraine’s international financial and security partners – the government has officially announced a shortfall of more than $40 billion in external financing in 2026. However, the apparent intensification of international efforts to provide military and economic support to Ukraine suggests that this gap will be largely compensated, thus guaranteeing macroeconomic and exchange rate stability. For this reason, we currently assess the risks of devaluation as moderate, and the long-term position of the hryvnia will depend less on the market and more on the architecture of fiscal policy and external support.
The domestic currency market will be in a state of rebalancing, taking into account domestic and global processes.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In July, the US dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia continued to demonstrate stability, with a slight correction within a narrow range.
During the first few weeks of the month, the market remained in a stable corridor: the average purchase rate by banks was around UAH 41.55/$, and the sale rate was UAH 42.05-42.06/$, with situational drops to UAH 41.95/$. The official exchange rate fluctuated between 41.8 and 41.83 UAH/$. Its proximity to market indicators indicates that there is a consensus between the market and the regulator’s policy and that the balance of supply and demand is maintained.
Spreads between the bid and ask rates, as well as the approximately equal deviation of these values from the NBU’s official rate, remain stable. This indicates that there is no imbalance in the market or nervousness among market participants. The market does not generate additional risk premiums or precautionary measures, which indicates that the predictable situation remains and that there is no speculative pressure.
Key influencing factors:
Forecast:
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In July, the euro exchange rate against the hryvnia demonstrated a high sensitivity to external conditions, in particular to the global weakening of the dollar. After a prolonged rise, the euro slightly corrected in the short term after the local peak: the buying rate dropped from 48.85 to 48.62 UAH/€, the selling rate from 49.55 to 49.22 UAH/€, and the official rate from 49.02 to 48.90 UAH/€. The correction was accompanied by a gradual narrowing of the bid-ask spread, which may indicate that expectations have stabilized after a wave of strong demand from the population.
Key influencing factors:
Forecast:
In general, the euro market in Ukraine is showing clear signs of stabilization, as evidenced by lower volatility on short (1-2 weeks) and longer (3-4 weeks) time frames, as well as a noticeable narrowing of bid-ask spreads, which in the cash segment decreased from UAH 2-2.5 to 60-80 kopecks per euro in the quarter alone. Market operators have gotten used to the euro’s movements, and they do not take excessive insurance against its growth or decline. Finally, another sign of market stabilization and exchange rate consensus between operators and the regulator is the fact that market buying and selling rates for euros remain relatively stable and insignificantly different from the official NBU rate.
Recommendations for businesses and investors
The current situation in the FX market is a transition to a new positioning regime. The main conclusion is that flexibility and scenario planning should be the basis of the currency strategy in the second half of 2025.
Liquidity comes first
Maintain the ability to react quickly: assets should be either fully liquid or easily transferable between instruments. Time deposits, bonds without early redemption, and a single-currency strategy are dangerous traps in an unstable environment. The focus is not on yield, but on mobility.
The euro is a new favorite, but no longer overheated
The euro’s share of demand from households and businesses has grown significantly, but the market is gradually entering a stabilization phase. The best strategy is to gradually reassess the share of euros in your portfolio, especially if your operating model is tied to this currency. After a wave of strong demand, it’s time for consolidation.
The dollar retains the function of basic protection
Despite the global weakening, the dollar remains an important backstop in the event of unforeseen events and does not lose liquidity and importance as a global universal settlement instrument. Maintain its share in your portfolio, especially in case of autumn and winter devaluation scenarios or weakening of foreign aid. It may not show rapid growth, but it will not fall quickly and deeply when everything else is falling.
Spreads are an indicator of market expectations
Narrowing spreads are a signal of stabilization. Widening is a sign of nervousness. In the USD/UAH pair, spreads remain stable, while in the EUR/UAH pair, they fluctuate. This is a hint for action: do not rush into transactions when the spread is wide, and use the narrow spread as a moment to optimize.
Give up on fixed “benchmarks”
Fixed rates or “psychological marks” (such as 42 or 50 UAH) are a trap. For forecasting, focus on ranges rather than absolute numbers at the moment. Test your currency structure for various scenarios – from restrained devaluation to situational revaluation, and don’t forget to include scenarios of key currency movements in international markets in your model.
Hryvnia for operational needs only
Even a stable hryvnia is a currency with limited savings potential. Don’t keep more than you need for current expenses. The surplus should be converted into hard currencies or instruments pegged to them.
Currency liberalization is a marker, not a guideline
The current signals of easing currency restrictions are just a “ground test” by the NBU. Real changes are likely to come no sooner than the fall. Until then, you should remain cautious. Avoid taking steps based only on the “expected” easing of the rules – this is a trap. Consider instruments that are less dependent on the decisions of the regulator or banks (e.g., cash or euro- or dollar-based stablecoins).
Keep your focus on changes in the news
The macroeconomic and exchange rate indicators that the government and the NBU will include in the draft budget for 2026 should be the closest benchmark. This is a marker of exchange rate policy and expectations that will determine market behavior and forecast likely exchange rate trajectories.
This material has been prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech platform that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
