Official figures indicate net migration is falling, yet concern among Britons is close to the highest it has been since polling began in 1974
Rolling news coverage of protests outside asylum hotels, a series of government announcements on asylum seekers, and Reform’s party conference meant that immigration was once again the political topic of the summer.
In August almost half of Britons (48%) listed immigration as one of the top issues facing the UK. This year has recorded the highest concerns over immigration – outside of one other period during the 2015 Europe migrant crisis – since polling company Ipsos started asking the question in 1974.
But what do the figures really show – and do all of the claims made about immigrants add up?
Despite public concern about immigration rising in recent months, official figures show that the number of people coming into the country is falling – albeit from a record high peak.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that net migration has mainly hovered between 200,000 and 300,000 people a year since 2011. However, since Brexit came into effect on New Year’s Eve 2020, there has been a large increase in the number of immigrants. Commentators and critics have called this the “Boriswave”, as it occurred following the new post-Brexit immigration system introduced by Boris Johnson.
Recent figures show that the wave is subsiding. Net migration fell by half in 2024, and recent rule changes mean it is expected to fall further. This is largely because of a decrease in health and care visas. Fewer people are now escaping the Ukraine war or fleeing the Taliban through the now closed Afghan humanitarian scheme.
Student visas have also declined. Applications were down 1.5% in August (when student visa applications spiked ahead of the academic year) compared with 2024, and down 18% on the same month in 2023.
In comments to the BBC following his conference speech, Reform leader Nigel Farage blamed Johnson for “millions of people being allowed into Britain, most of whom by the way don’t even work and are costing us a fortune”. However, the available evidence complicates his version of events.
Most people claiming asylum aren’t allowed to work. But despite the large media focus on small boats and asylum seekers, these only make up a tiny proportion of the overall number of people coming to the UK – less than 5% of Home Office visas granted and arrivals detected in 2025.
The largest proportion of people coming into the UK is made up of students (about 47%, including dependents). Students aren’t expected to work, but do contribute by paying fees towards their degrees, and can’t get indefinite leave to remain so either leave the UK or contribute by moving into paid work afterwards.
The second largest group are people on working visas, who make up 20%, with their dependents making up 11%.
Currently, the published data on immigrant earnings is patchy – and isn’t helped by ongoing issues with the ONS labour force survey.
Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said that while the data on employment was imperfect and rates “vary widely by immigration category”, the figures suggested employment rates among recent migrants were “not far off existing residents or long-standing migrants”.
A Home Office report managed to link some visa types that were granted between 2019 and 2023, to pay as you earn (PAYE) earnings in the 2023-24 financial year – with most of them recording earnings. As for those without records, it’s probable most will have already left the country.
It’s not just people on working visas who work. The report also found that almost half of people entering on family visas (48%) had some PAYE earnings (and again that’s not including those who are self employed or left the country).
Much of the talk around immigration recently has focused on dependents – family members who are allowed to immigrate alongside the main visa holder. New health and care workers were prevented from bringing their children and other dependents by the Sunak government, as were most students.
The PAYE data suggests many dependents do in fact work – 81% of health and care worker dependents, 45% of skilled worker dependents, and 25% of senior or specialist visa dependents received earnings (once again – these don’t take into account the self-employed, or the fact that many will have left the country. Adjusting the figures to account for the primary visa holders that have left raises the estimates further).
Among all the different types of people coming to the UK, newly arrived refugees (around 28% according to some estimates) and those on humanitarian visas are the least likely to be in work.
In terms of overall earnings, the Migration Observatory found that the immigrant earnings grow quickly – the median non-EU immigrant worker in 2024 earned similar or slightly more than the median UK worker.
So will recent migrants – as Farage stated – cost the UK a fortune in the long run? Based on the available data we still can’t tell – but given the fact that most people moving to the UK won’t be going through the school system, and also have to pay towards their NHS treatment, it’s unlikely they would cost more than others.
The UK is preparing to sign a “groundbreaking technology agreement” with the US during President Donald Trump’s state visit next week, Bloomberg reports, citing the UK government.
“Advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing will change our lives. This includes new ways of treating diseases, as well as improving public services,” said UK Technology Minister Liz Kendall.
According to the publication, Trump plans to arrive in the UK on Tuesday for his second state visit, which will last three days. He will be accompanied by a delegation of American business leaders, including executives from Nvidia Corp. and OpenAI.
“During the visit, American companies Nvidia, OpenAI, CoreWeave, and BlackRock will announce multi-billion dollar investments in British data center infrastructure,” the report said.
The US and the UK already cooperate in the fields of artificial intelligence, semiconductors, telecommunications, and quantum computing.
In January-August of this year, Ukraine reduced exports of semi-finished carbon steel products in physical terms by 39.1% compared to the same period last year, to 795,769 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), in monetary terms, exports of carbon steel semi-finished products fell by 40.8% to $384.215 million.
The main exports were mainly to Bulgaria (39.36% of supplies in monetary terms), Turkey (16.42%), and Poland (14.38%).
During this period, Ukraine imported 46,604 thousand tons of semi-finished products worth $35.242 million, mainly from Oman (38.41%), Germany (26.24%), and the Czech Republic (18.61%), while in the first eight months of 2024, it imported 5 tons of semi-finished products worth $5 thousand.
As reported, in 2024, Ukraine increased its exports of semi-finished carbon steel products in physical terms by 56.7% compared to 2023, to 1 million 886,090 tons, while revenue in monetary terms increased by 52.4% to $927.554 million. The main exports were to Bulgaria (32.06% of supplies in monetary terms), Egypt (18.50%), and Turkey (11.14%).
In 2024, Ukraine imported 306 tons of semi-finished products worth $278 thousand from the Czech Republic (88.13%), Romania (7.19%), and Poland (2.88%), while in 2023, it imported 96 tons worth $172 thousand.
In January-August of this year, Ukraine increased its exports of processed cast iron in physical terms by 64.9% compared to the same period last year, to 1 million 235,648 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), during the specified period, pig iron exports in monetary terms increased by 70.3% to $487.923 million.
At the same time, exports were mainly to the United States (81.66% of shipments in monetary terms), Italy (9.24%), and Turkey (3.51%).
In the first eight months of this year, the country imported 38,000 tons worth $76,000 from Germany (51.32%) and Brazil (48.68%), while in January-August 2024, 15 tons of pig iron worth $37,000 were imported.
As reported, on March 12 of this year, in accordance with President Donald Trump’s decision, the US began imposing a 25% tariff on imports of Ukrainian steel products, except for cast iron.
In 2024, Ukraine reduced its exports of processed cast iron in physical terms by 3.4% compared to 2023, to 1 million 290.622 thousand tons, and in monetary terms by 6.1%, to $500.341 million. Exports were mainly to the United States (72.64% of shipments in monetary terms), Turkey (8.03%), and Italy (7.30%).
For the whole of 2024, the country imported 38 tons of pig iron worth $90 thousand from Germany, while for the same period in 2023, it imported 154 tons of pig iron worth $156 thousand.
In January-August of this year, Ukraine reduced exports of titanium-containing ores and concentrates in physical terms by 94.2% compared to the same period last year, to 277 tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), in monetary terms, exports of titanium-bearing ores and concentrate decreased by 93.7% to $496,000.
The main exports were to Uzbekistan (35.61% of shipments in monetary terms), Turkey (35.01%), and Egypt (29.38%).
In addition, Ukraine imported 24 tons of titanium-containing ore worth $39,000 from China (94.87%, deliveries took place in January) and Uzbekistan (5.13%, deliveries took place in May) in the first eight months of 2025.
In the first eight months of 2025, Ukraine exported 2,466 tons of niobium, tantalum, vanadium, and zirconium ores and concentrates worth $3.954 million to Spain (48.90%), Germany (24.53%), and Italy (17.19%). At the same time, the country imported 321 tons of such ores worth $841 thousand from Spain (68.05%), China (15.8%), and the Czech Republic (13.06%).
As reported, in 2024, Ukraine reduced its exports of titanium-containing ores in physical terms by 37.5% compared to the previous year, to 7,284 thousand tons. In monetary terms, exports of titanium-containing ores and concentrates decreased by 40% to $11.654 million. The main exports were to Turkey (62.82% of supplies in monetary terms), Egypt (7.38%), and Poland (6.93%).
Last year, Ukraine imported 314 tons of titanium-containing ore worth $492 thousand from China (87.78%), Vietnam (6.11%), and Senegal (also 6.11%).
At the same time, experts pointed out the inconsistency of statistics on exports of titanium-containing ores. However, in response to a request from Interfax-Ukraine, the State Customs Service (SFS) of Ukraine stated that complete data on the export of titanium raw materials is not provided due to restrictions on the volume of export and import operations with military and dual-use goods, which are reflected in aggregate form under “Other goods.”
They explained that, in particular, deliveries of titanium-containing ores from companies differ from the SCS data.
“We would like to inform you that these deliveries are included in the statistical exports from Ukraine, but are not reflected in the foreign trade statistics published by the State Customs Service (…) under commodity item UKTZED 2614 ”Titanium ores and concentrates” in view of the following (…) In accordance with the regulations (…), when protecting data for confidentiality purposes, any information considered confidential is reported in full at the next, higher level of product data aggregation,” the State Customs Service explained in its response to the agency.
It was clarified that information on customs clearance and movement across the customs border of Ukraine of goods subject to export control is included in the list of information containing official information in the SSU, in accordance with the relevant order.
In Ukraine, titanium-containing ores are currently mined mainly by PJSC “United Mining and Chemical Company” (UMCC), which manages the Vilnohirsk Mining and Metallurgical Plant (VGMK, Dnipropetrovsk region) and the Irshansk Mining and Processing Plant (IGZK, Zhytomyr region), as well as LLC “Mezhirichensky GZK” and LLC “Valky-Ilmenite” (both LLCs are located in Irshansk, Zhytomyr region). In addition, the production and commercial firm Velta (Dnipro) built a mining and processing plant at the Birzulivskyi deposit with a capacity of 240,000 tons of ilmenite concentrate per year.
Ukraine will need at least $120 billion next year if the war unleashed by Russia continues, in order to hold the front line and minimize the number of lives lost among its defenders, Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal reiterated his July assessment at the annual YES conference “How to End the War,” organized by the Pinchuk Foundation in Kyiv on September 12-13.
“If the war ends, we will need a slightly smaller amount to simply keep our army in good shape in case of secondary aggression from the Russian side,” Shmyhal said.
“The economics of war show that if we spend less money than Russia, then we start paying with our territories and, most importantly, with our lives. Therefore, we need to attract all the necessary resources, all the necessary money,” he stressed.
The defense minister acknowledged that after three and a half years, many taxpayers are exhausted from spending such a huge amount of money, so he spoke in favor of using frozen Russian assets until Russia compensates for all the expenses that Ukraine and all countries have incurred during this wartime.
In his opinion, such a solution can be found even without direct confiscation, because the legal complexity of this procedure is understandable.
“We need to have a stable source of funding to finance Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction. Therefore, the number one issue for all of us is to find a political and legal solution for the use of frozen Russian assets,” Shmygal said.
He highlighted three main priorities: supplying the Defense Forces with more FPV drones, more robotic systems, and artillery shells, including long-range ones; sky defense—both with Patriots against ballistic missiles and with interceptor drones against drones; long-range weapons—Ukrainian-made drones and missiles.
“If our Western partners provide us with more deep strike systems and equipment, we will be absolutely delighted. But we can produce our own deep strike weapons, and again, we need funding,” the defense minister said.
He explained that such long-range strikes put the most pressure on the Russian economy and society, as well as directly on Putin, because they allow for the destruction of their oil refineries and military production infrastructure.
“We need to produce more, we need to continue carpet bombing operations, when all the planes in the Moscow region are grounded day after day. This is very inconvenient for the Moscow elite, and they are directly telling Putin: let’s stop this war because we can’t fly,” Shmygal added.
According to him, he conveys these needs during meetings in the Rammstein format.
In addition, the defense minister announced the need to create a so-called Kill Zone, which is currently being formed on the front line, to prevent aggression from recurring in the future. “These are lines of drones covering 10, 15, or even 30 km of territory,” he explained.
According to estimates by Alexander Parashchiy, head of the analytical department at investment company Concorde Capital, defense and security spending in 2024 amounted to approximately $95 billion, while this year he predicted it would grow to approximately $100-105 billion. Approximately half of this amount comes from the budget, while the other half has been provided by partners until recently.
In addition, Ukraine attracts about $40 billion in external financial assistance annually for non-military purposes in order to be able to finance military needs from the budget. For next year, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has estimated the need for external financing of the state budget deficit at $45 billion, of which EUR16 billion has not yet been secured.
CONFERENCE, SHMYHAL, WAR, ЄС
