Oil prices are falling moderately on Wednesday morning after a rise in the previous session, during which quotations renewed a three-week low.
The value of January futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $93.28 a barrel by 7:08 a.m., down $0.58 (0.62%) from the close of the previous session. Those contracts rose $0.72 (0.8%) to $91.53 per barrel at the close of trading on Tuesday.
The price of WTI futures for December at electronic trades of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $86.2 per barrel by that time which is $0.72 (0.83%) lower than the final value of the previous session. The day before contract rose by $1.05 (1.2%) to $86.92 per barrel.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday raised its forecast for oil demand growth by 180,000 bpd in 2022, but the forecast for 2023 was lowered by 40,000 bpd.
The agency also noted that by December 5, when the European embargo on Russian oil imports takes effect, Russia will need to divert another 1.1 million b/d to exports to other countries.
Oil also reacted to news about a rocket explosion in Poland, which killed two people. A number of media wrote that the missile could have come from Russian territory, but the Russian Defense Ministry denied that it was Russian missiles, noting that the military did not strike targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border.
Also, the market is waiting for the weekly U.S. fuel inventories data, which will be published at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday.
The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) report, released the previous evening, showed a 5.8 mln barrel drop in crude stocks last week. Gasoline stocks, according to API data, grew by 1.7 mln barrels, distillates – by 850,000 barrels.
Import of goods to Ukraine in % to the previous period in 2021 and 2022
SSC of Ukraine
Ukrainian enterprises in January-October this year, reduced the export of scrap ferrous metals in 13.3 times compared to the same period last year – up to 37.774 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), in monetary terms, the export of scrap metal during this period decreased by 13.4 times – to $14.589 million.
At the same time, the country has reduced the import of scrap metal in volume terms by 11.7 times to 1.691 thousand tons for ten months. In monetary terms, the import of scrap decreased by 10.8 times – to $ 3.453 million.
In addition, steel companies in Ukraine in January-October 2022, did not import products of direct reduction of iron ore to code 7203 – hot briquetted iron, which is a substitute for pig iron and scrap, but exported 258 tons of these products to India (100%) amounting to $ 48 thousand.
As reported, Ukraine in 2021 increased exports of scrap metal in 17.2 times compared to the previous year – up to 615.687 tons. In monetary terms, exports of scrap metal increased by 25.2 times to $238.895 million.
In 2021, the country reduced imports of scrap metal by 13.1% in volume terms, to 22.964 thousand tons. In monetary terms, scrap imports increased by 72.4% to $44.883 million.
Imports of scrap metal in 2021 was carried out mainly from Turkey (60.42% of supplies in monetary terms), Russia (33.44%) and Belarus (1.57%); exports – to Turkey (84.85%), Romania (6.66%) and Poland (3.45%).
In addition, steel companies in Ukraine in 2021 imported from Russia 1.603 tons of products of direct reduction of iron ore to code 7203 – hot briquetted iron (HBI), which is a substitute for pig iron and scrap, worth $ 653 thousand, while in 2020 – 2.648 tons to $ 805 thousand. In this case, the export of products to India was 288 tons to $91 thousand.
The dollar is moderately depreciating against the euro and appreciating against the yen on Wednesday morning as investors assess geopolitical risks and U.S. inflation data.
The ICE-calculated index, which shows the U.S. dollar’s performance against six currencies (euro, Swiss franc, yen, Canadian dollar, pound sterling and Swedish krona), is up less than 0.1%, as is the broader WSJ Dollar Index.
The day before, the dollar index had fallen to a three-month low on further signals of slowing U.S. inflation.
As it became known on Tuesday, producer prices in the United States (PPI) rose 8 percent year-over-year in October and 0.2 percent against September. Analysts polled by Trading Economics forecasted an average increase of 8.3% for the former index and 0.4% for the latter.
Meanwhile, Rafael Bostic, head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) in Atlanta, expressed the view that the Fed should continue to raise interest rates until there are signs of widespread easing in inflation. “We haven’t seen that yet, so I believe we will need new rate hikes,” Bostick wrote. He added, however, that he sees “glimmers of hope” in the past three months, but prices are falling mostly for goods, not services.
The currency market is also reacting to news of a rocket explosion in Poland, which killed two people. A number of media outlets wrote that the missile could have come from Russian territory.
However, Polish President Andrzej Duda said the government could not yet confirm who fired the missile, and U.S. President Joe Biden said it was unlikely that it came from Russian territory.
The Russian Defense Ministry denied that the rockets were Russian, saying that the military had not struck any targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border.
The euro/dollar pair was trading at $1.0370 by 7:52 a.m., versus $1.0350 at the close of Tuesday’s session, with the euro strengthening 0.2%.
The dollar/yen is up 0.4% at 139.82 yen, up from 139.31 yen at the end of last session.
The pound is stable and trading at $1.1865.
US President Joe Biden has asked Congress to allocate an additional $37.7 billion in aid to Ukraine, AP reported.
The information notes that $21.7 billion is defense aid to continue providing Ukraine with equipment and restocking the Defense Department.
The Biden administration is asking for $14.5 billion for humanitarian aid and support for the functioning of the Ukrainian government, as well as $900 million for health care and support services for Ukrainians living in the United States, and $626 million to support Ukrainian nuclear security and modernize the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Poland is holding talks with NATO allies and is analyzing the possibility of resorting to Article 4 of the NATO consultation treaty, the Polish presidential office said, citing Polish National Security Directorate head Jacek Syvera.
“President Andrzej Duda just finished a conversation with (NATO Secretary General) Jens Stoltenberg. We are verifying the grounds for NATO Article 4. We are in contact with our allies and awaiting talks with the U.S. side,” the tweet read.
Earlier, Latvian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said of the possibility of invoking NATO Article 4.
“My first reaction would be that after the Russians hit the Polish territory, to engage Art. 4, also as an air defense of the Ukrainian sky,” he tweeted.
Article 4 of NATO states: “The Contracting Parties will always consult each other in the event that, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Contracting Parties is threatened.
