Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine has a profound negative impact on global food security. Ukraine still remains an important link in the global food chain, and restoring its full agricultural production and export capabilities is critical to stabilizing global food markets and preventing a large-scale food crisis, SEEDSwrites .
Denys Vasylenko, co-founder of the logistics company NIDERA AGRO, an expert in grain exports and logistics, and industry leader of the NGO Svit.UA, wrote about this in a blog post on the website of the public platform Svit.UA .
“Due to the war, Ukraine has lost a significant part of its traditional export routes. The blockade of the Black Sea ports, the destruction of transport infrastructure and constant security threats have created significant barriers to agricultural exports. Disruptions in the supply of food from Ukraine have led to an increase in global agricultural prices. This hit poor countries that are critically dependent on imports particularly hard.
At the same time, new opportunities for Ukrainian farmers have emerged, including the abolition of customs duties in the EU, which has made it easier to enter the European market,” Denys Vasylenko said .
Key export destinations and new opportunities
Agriculture accounts for a significant portion of the country’s GDP and is a key factor in economic sustainability. The full-scale invasion has shown how important it is for Ukraine to maintain logistics, especially the operation of sea routes and ports, to ensure a stable supply of products to global markets.
“The main goal of our work is to integrate Ukrainian grain into the European market. Ukraine’s export potential for 2025 is highly dependent on many factors, the main one being the end of the war and the establishment of peace. In the case of a positive scenario, Ukraine has a significant potential to restore and grow exports, using the opportunities of European integration, international support and domestic reforms. In a negative scenario, our export opportunities will be critically limited,” emphasizes the grain export and logistics expert.
We managed to knock Russian companies out of the Italian market
Nevertheless, the EU remains Ukraine’s main trading partner, emphasized Denys Vasylenko.
“In January 2025, the volume of exports to the EU reached $1.8 billion. 57% of our food exports cross the EU border, of which 52% remain in the EU countries. We managed to knock Russian companies out of the Italian market. Although it is still very difficult to compete with them on prices. Now the Italian and Spanish markets are open to us, but we need to gain a foothold there. Not only with the products we sell there. We need to have a good reputation and work efficiently for the long term.
As for global markets, we also need to work hard and look for opportunities. After we almost lost China, Egypt and Turkey, African countries are very important for our wheat. Now exports to these countries have increased from 3% to 13%. This is a good trend,” said the co-founder of the logistics company NIDERA AGRO.
According to him, the blocking of ports, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of transportation routes, security risks – all this creates extraordinary challenges for farmers.
“The war has dramatically changed the logistics routes of Ukrainian agricultural exports and led to the search for alternative export routes (by rail, river, through the western borders). To stabilize exports, it is important to have an effective logistics strategy that includes route optimization, coordination with European partners, and the use of new technological solutions in grain transportation.
One of the key areas of work of the NGO Svit.UA is advocacy of Ukrainian producers before European governments and the business community.
The organization is actively working to ensure stable access of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU markets and to support the competitiveness of our farmers. In addition, the NGO Svit.UA helps producers adapt their logistics processes, looks for new export opportunities and participates in the creation of effective solutions to improve agro-logistics,” adds Denys Vasylenko.
Ukrainian agricultural exports are facing unprecedented challenges, but at the same time, they are getting new opportunities, the grain export and logistics expert believes.
“Gaining a foothold in the European market, developing the African direction, searching for new logistics solutions and an effective product promotion strategy are the key areas that will determine the future of Ukrainian agricultural exports.
Ukraine has every chance to not only maintain but also strengthen its position as one of the leading players in the global food market. To do this, we need not only to effectively solve logistical issues, but also to build long-term strategic partnerships with importing countries despite any challenges,” Denys Vasylenko is convinced.
Initial registrations of electric vehicles (new and used) in Ukraine in February 2025 increased by 14% compared to February 2024 – up to 4,488 thousand units, UkrAutoprom reported on its Telegram channel.
Compared to January of this year, when 3,637 thousand electric vehicles were registered, the demand for them increased by 23%.
At the same time, according to the Association, the bulk of registered electric vehicles last month were passenger cars – 4,360 thousand units, of which 632 units were new (31.7% less than in February 2014), and 3,728 thousand were used (26% more).
Among the 128 commercial electric vehicles, 9 were new (in February 2014, two out of 43 units were new).
Thus, the share of new cars in the total registration of electric vehicles in February decreased to 14.3% compared to 24% in February 2024 and 18.8% in January this year.
The top five new electric vehicles on the market in February were BYD Song Plus EV – 115 units; Zeekr 001 – 65 units; Zeekr 7X – 41 units; Volkswagen ID.4 – 56 units, ZEEKR 001 – 46 units and Volkswagen ID.Unyx – 45 units.
The top five newly registered used electric vehicles were Tesla Model Y – 430 units; Tesla Model 3 – 429 units; Nissan Leaf – 407 units; Hyundai Kona Electric – 245 units; and KIA Niro EV – 231 units.
A significant decline in sales of new electric vehicles is also noted by the AUTO-Consulting information and analytical group – according to its data, in February, a decrease of 37% was recorded (with an overall drop in the new passenger car market by 20%), and their share decreased to 15.6% from 20% in February 2024.
As reported, according to UkrAvtoprom, in February 2024, the demand for electric vehicles in Ukraine increased 2.3 times compared to the same month in 2023 – to 3,924 thousand units, with the share of new vehicles remaining at 24%.
Last year, according to UkrAutoprom, registrations of electric vehicles (new and used) increased by 38% compared to 2023 to 51.7 thousand units, including 37% of passenger cars to 50.458 thousand, 64% of commercial vehicles to 1.264 thousand, and two electric buses were registered. The share of new vehicles was 20%.
Ukraine still maintains steel production growth in the first two months of 2025 despite the loss of the sector’s key coking coal mine in Pokrovsk in the eastern part of the country, data from the Ukrainian steel producers’ union showed on Saturday.
Ukrainian steelmaker Metinvest has suspended operations at Ukraine’s only coking coal mine, citing a deteriorating security situation as Russian forces advanced.
The raw steel output rose by 9.9% in January-February 2025 to 1.18 million metric tons, the data showed.
Steel production has suffered since Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022, which has led to the destruction of leading steel plants.
Ukraine, formerly a major steel producer and exporter, reported a 70.7% drop in output in 2022 to 6.3 million tons. It fell to 6 million tons in 2023 but increased to 7.58 million in 2024.
The steelmakers’ union said in October the potential closure of the Pokrovsk mine could cause steel output to slump to 2-3 million metric tons in 2025.
Producers have said they hope to find coking coal, an ingredient in steel production, from elsewhere in Ukraine should the mine be seized by Russian troops, but imports would be needed, raising costs.
The Kyiv Metro has re-announced a tender for the purchase of 50 railcars as part of the Kyiv Urban Transport Modernization II project, funded by a loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the subway reported.
According to the report, the tender involves the purchase of 10 five-car trains with a free passage between cars (a “tube”), including the supply of spare parts, consumables, equipment and tools for rolling stock maintenance and repair.
The procurement will be conducted in the format of an open tender with prequalification. The deadline for submitting proposals for the first stage is May 2025.
As reported, the first similar tender in August 2023 was won by Kryukiv Carriage Works (KVSZ), which offered 10 trains for EUR79.2 million (including VAT), which was 37% cheaper than the offer of the second participant, Czech Skoda.
KVSZ proposed a 97-meter-long metro train with an asynchronous traction drive with three motorized and two trailed non-motorized cars, with domestic-made bogies, with a total passenger capacity of 1,650 people.
However, in November of the same year, Kyiv Metro canceled its decision to award the contract to KVSZ, and the carriage plant, in turn, tried to appeal the decision in the Kyiv Commercial Court, but to no avail.
The court’s decision dismissing KVSZ’s claim came into force in November 2024.
According to the court materials, Kyiv justified the decision to cancel the award of the contract by the fact that KVSZ tried to replace the supplier of the main equipment (in particular, control systems, traction power and equipment, traction gearboxes, subway control system) from the Spanish CAF (which was agreed with the EBRD) to a Polish or Japanese company.
At the same time, KVSZ pointed out that the change of supplier was due to the fact that CAF refused to supply the plant with equipment due to the workload of production lines. However, Metro refused to replace the supplier because it contradicted the terms of the tender.
As reported, in February 2021, the EBRD and Kyiv Metro signed a EUR 50 million loan agreement for the purchase of 50 new subway cars.
The subway trains are to be purchased for the Syretsko-Pecherska subway line towards the Vynohradar residential area, which will be resumed in 2024.
According to the Kyiv Metro, its inventory fleet currently includes more than 830 cars. At the same time, about 100 railcars will soon reach the end of their service life.
Passenger traffic across the Ukrainian border in the first week of spring, from March 1 to March 7, increased by 1.1% compared to the previous week, to 440 thousand, due to an increase in the number of people entering Ukraine.
According to the State Border Guard Service’s Facebook page, the number of exit crossings decreased from 225,000 to 222,000, while the number of entry crossings increased from 210,000 to 218,000.
The number of vehicles that crossed the checkpoints remained at 117 thousand, while the flow of vehicles with humanitarian cargo increased from 553 to 621, so the ban on the “Shlyakh” system for volunteers has not yet affected the statistics.
According to the State Border Guard Service, as of 9:00 a.m. on Sunday, there were small queues at the Uzhhorod checkpoint (15 vehicles) on the border with Slovakia, at the Ustyluh checkpoint (15 vehicles) on the border with Poland, and at the Luzhanka (20 vehicles), Vylok (10 vehicles), and Tisa (6 vehicles) checkpoints on the border with Hungary.
The total number of people crossing the border this week in 2025 is slightly higher than last year’s: 215 thousand people left and 210 thousand entered Ukraine in the same seven days, with a traffic flow of 110 thousand. Last year, passenger traffic remained at this level for another week before increasing during the spring school holidays.
As reported, on May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine, which began with the outbreak of war, was replaced by an influx that lasted until September 23, 2022 and amounted to 409 thousand people. However, since the end of September, possibly under the influence of news about mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, and then massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of people leaving has been exceeding the number of people entering. In total, from the end of September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war, it reached 223 thousand people.
In the second year of the full-scale war, the number of border crossings to leave Ukraine, according to the State Border Guard Service, exceeded the number of crossings to enter by 25 thousand, while in the third year – by 187 thousand, and since the beginning of the fourth year – by another 21 thousand.
As Deputy Economy Minister Serhiy Sobolev noted in early March 2023, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP.
In its January inflation report, the National Bank estimated the outflow from Ukraine in 2024 at 0.5 million (0.315 million according to the State Border Guard Service). In absolute terms, the number of migrants staying abroad will increase to 6.8 million in 2024. The NBU also maintained its outflow forecast for 2025 at 0.2 million.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of February 19, 2025, was estimated at 6.346 million, and 6.907 million worldwide, which is 43 thousand more than as of January 16.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data, 3.665 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), including approximately 160 thousand people, were displaced from the frontline areas in the east and south between May and October 2024 due to the intensification of hostilities.
2022-2024 goods trade balance forecast (USD billion)
Source: Open4Business.com.ua
