The price of gold continues to rise rapidly on global markets: December futures on the Comex exchange rose to $3,965 per troy ounce on Monday, a new historic high. Since the beginning of the year, gold has risen in price by almost one and a half times.
The main drivers of growth were increased demand for safe-haven assets and political instability in the US and Europe.
In Washington, federal agencies have been shut down for six days now, as Congress has been unable to approve a temporary budget. Against this backdrop, investors are pulling their money out of stocks and bonds and putting it into gold, which they see as a safer bet in times of crisis.
Adding to the nervousness is the political crisis in France: Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned after criticism of the composition of the new cabinet, causing another surge of volatility in European markets.
“We see both fundamental and situational factors for a further rally in gold. If current conditions persist, the price could reach $4,200 per ounce by the end of the year,” UBS analysts predict.
According to experts, if political uncertainty in the US and the EU persists, gold could consolidate above the $4,000 mark.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in its video on YouTube — https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=9YBue5CS6dz-tA6_
According to the Arvio report for the first quarter of 2025, 7.19% of all real estate transactions in Croatia were concluded by foreigners. The most active among them are:
· Slovenia — about 30.2% of transactions with foreigners
· Germany — approximately 21.1%
· Austria — about 10.4%
Buyers from Ukraine did not make it into the top 10 list of the most active real estate buyers in Croatia, but there are dozens of transactions involving Ukrainians purchasing real estate in Croatia.
At the same time, Ukrainian buyers are quite noticeable in the Balkans as a whole — in Montenegro, they ranked 11th among foreign real estate buyers, and in Bulgaria, they are consistently among the top 10 most active investors.
In recent years, the number of deals concluded by foreigners in Croatia has been declining:
· 2022 — ~ 13,344 deals
· 2023 — ~ 12,278
· 2024 — ~ 11,623 deals
Foreign buyers are particularly active in coastal regions such as Istria and Kvarner, as well as in areas popular for vacation and secondary housing. New apartments and houses that require minimal renovation or are immediately ready for occupancy or rental are in particularly high demand.
Real estate prices in some regions of Croatia are showing steady growth — about 10% per year. In coastal and tourist areas, average prices for new projects and apartments are significantly higher than the market average.
Given current trends, it is predicted that the share of foreign buyers in the total volume of transactions by the end of 2025 will remain within 8%, possibly declining slightly due to rising prices and housing affordability issues. Prices on the coast are expected to grow faster than average, driven by supply shortages, high tourist demand, and a focus on new properties.
There is also likely to be increased demand from Europeans in neighboring countries (Slovenia, Austria, Germany) and “returning diaspora.” As for purchases from countries outside the EU, the situation is less clear, and no significant flows have yet been recorded in public sources.
Taxes, fees, and mandatory payments to the general and special funds of Ukraine’s state budget amounted to UAH 2.71 trillion over the first nine months of 2025, while cash expenditures amounted to UAH 3.63 trillion, which is approximately 25.0% and 22.1% higher than the corresponding figures for the first nine months of 2024.
According to operational data from the State Treasury Service, which the Ministry of Finance published on its website, general fund revenues increased by 24.5% to UAH 1.92 trillion, while expenditures increased by 20.4% to UAH 2.82 trillion.
In September this year, state budget revenues increased by 28.7% compared to September last year, to UAH 298.5 billion, including the general fund – by 69.6%, to UAH 208.4 billion. This is due to the receipt of grants worth UAH 53.9 billion last month, while in September 2024 there were none.
It is noted that the largest source of revenue in January-September this year remains VAT on goods imported into the customs territory of Ukraine – UAH 390.3 billion (UAH 342.3 billion in the first nine months of 2024).
After raising the military tax from 1.5% to 5% and introducing a condition for reserving a salary of UAH 20,000 this year, personal income tax and military tax moved from fourth to second place in terms of revenue for the first nine months of this year – UAH 260.9 billion compared to UAH 154.7 billion last year.
In third place this year is VAT on goods produced in Ukraine – UAH 231.6 billion for refunds of UAH 131.2 billion (UAH 197.6 billion for refunds of UAH 109.7 billion), while corporate income tax amounted to UAH 219.7 billion (UAH 200.9 billion) and fell to fourth place, with excise tax almost catching up with it at UAH 210.5 billion (UAH 150.9 billion).
In addition, dividends and parts of the net profit of state-owned companies amounted to UAH 64.5 billion (UAH 66.6 billion), import and export duties – UAH 40.0 billion (UAH 35.7 billion), and rent payments for the use of subsoil resources – UAH 31.5 billion (UAH 36.3 billion).
The Ministry of Finance added that another UAH 84.2 billion (UAH 38.6 billion) was added to the budget from the National Bank’s profits, and grants amounted to UAH 308.8 billion (UAH 268.3 billion).
Revenues from the unified social tax to pension and social insurance funds in January-September 2025 increased by 21.9% to UAH 479.2 billion, including in September by 19.3% to UAH 55.7 billion.
The Ministry of Finance also reported that as part of the financing of the general fund of the state budget, state borrowings to it in January-September 2025 amounted to UAH 1.32 trillion, or 92.9% of the plan, including UAH 382.3 billion received on the domestic market from the placement of government bonds (UAH 390.8 billion for the first nine months of 2024), including UAH 90.1 billion in foreign currency – $1.44 billion and EUR 638.3 million. At the same time, UAH 172.0 billion was raised through the issuance of military government bonds.
According to the release, approximately $22.6 billion or UAH 938.1 billion was received from external sources, including approximately $14.5 billion under the ERA, with the total volume of this mechanism amounting to $50 billion.
In addition, Ukraine received another EUR 6.14 billion from the EU under the Ukraine Facility preferential long-term loan, $0.96 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and $0.26 billion from the World Bank for the projects “Transforming Health Care through Reform and Investment in Efficiency” (THRIVE), “Creating Resilient Infrastructure in Vulnerable Environments in Ukraine” (DRIVE), and “Modernization of the Social Support System for the Population of Ukraine.”
Payments on the repayment of public debt for January-September 2025 amounted to UAH 450.9 billion, or 95.4% of the plan, and payments on servicing amounted to UAH 246.3 billion, or 96.3% of the plan.
As reported, the 2025 state budget was approved with revenues of UAH 2 trillion 327.1 billion, including the general fund – UAH 2 trillion 133.3 billion (excluding grants and international assistance), and expenditures of UAH 3 trillion 929.1 billion, including the general fund – UAH 3 trillion 591.6 billion. At the end of July, the Verkhovna Rada, at the government’s suggestion, increased this year’s budget expenditures by UAH 400.5 billion and revenues by UAH 147.5 billion, but in October, the government again proposed to increase defense expenditures by another UAH 317 billion.
In 2024, the state budget received UAH 3 trillion 120.5 billion in revenues, which is UAH 448 billion, or 16.8%, more than the 2023 state budget. The general fund’s revenue growth amounted to UAH 513.9 billion, or 30.9%, to UAH 2 trillion 177 billion, in particular, international financial assistance in the form of grants amounted to UAH 453.6 billion compared to UAH 433.9 billion in 2023.
State budget expenditures in 2024 increased by UAH 464.5 billion, or 11.6%, compared to 2023, to UAH 4 trillion 479.3 billion, in particular, under the general fund – by 15%, or UAH 454.5 billion – to UAH 3 trillion 488.8 billion.
In London, judicial authorities have confirmed the arrest of Chinese citizen Zhimin Qian (also known as Yadi Zhang), who pleaded guilty to cryptocurrency transactions linked to large-scale fraud.
According to British investigators, Qian ran a financial scheme in China between 2014 and 2017, involving approximately 128,000 victims. She converted the money she received into bitcoins and attempted to launder it through transactions in the UK.
During a search of a house in north London, 61,000 bitcoins were seized, which at the time of the investigation were valued at over £5 billion. This seizure is considered one of the largest in the history of crypto crimes.
Qian pleaded guilty to charges related to the illegal possession, acquisition, and laundering of crypto assets. Her extradition and final sentence are expected later.
This case is significant not only for British law enforcement in the field of cryptocurrencies, but also for global law enforcement cooperation in combating transnational money laundering schemes involving digital assets.
Passenger traffic across Ukraine’s border in the fifth week of autumn, from September 27 to October 3, decreased by 5.2% to 561,000, according to data from the State Border Service.
According to the data, the number of arrivals in Ukraine during the week decreased from 286,000 to 278,000, while the decrease in the outbound flow was more significant – from 306,000 to 283,000, which is explained by the end of the Jewish New Year “Rosh Hashanah” celebrations last week and the departure of pilgrims from Ukraine.
At the same time, the number of vehicles that passed through checkpoints increased from 133,000 to 137,000, while the flow of vehicles carrying humanitarian cargo remained approximately the same – 481.
This Sunday, as of 6:00 p.m., according to the State Border Service, the longest queue of 50 passenger cars was at the Ustyluh checkpoint, another 15 cars were waiting to cross the border at the Uhryniv checkpoint, and 10 cars had accumulated at the Shehyni checkpoint.
At the border with Hungary, there were queues of 20 cars at the Tisa and Luzhanka checkpoints, another 15 cars were waiting at the Vilok checkpoint, while at the border with Slovakia, there were queues of 15 cars at the Uzhgorod and Maly Berezny checkpoints.
At the border with Romania, there was a queue of 20 cars only at the Porubne checkpoint, while at the border with Moldova, 15 cars were waiting at the Mamalyga checkpoint.
The total number of border crossings this week is only 3.7% higher than last year, because then pilgrims came to celebrate Rosh Hashanah mainly during this week. Therefore, the number of those who left the country was less than the number of those who entered – 256 versus 285, respectively. The flow of cars was also lower – 128,000.
Last year, passenger traffic remained at approximately this level until a small surge during the autumn school holidays, after which it fell by about 20% until the Christmas and New Year holidays.
As reported, from May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine, which began with the start of the war, was replaced by an influx that lasted until September 23, 2022, and amounted to 409,000 people. However, since the end of September, possibly influenced by news of mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, followed by massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of those leaving exceeded the number of those entering. In total, from the end of September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war, it reached 223,000 people.
During the second year of the full-scale war, the number of border crossings to leave Ukraine, according to the State Border Service, exceeded the number of crossings to enter by 25,000, during the third year by 187,000, and since the beginning of the fourth year by 180,000.
As Serhiy Sobolev, then Deputy Minister of Economy, noted in early March 2023, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP.
In its July inflation report, the National Bank worsened its migration forecast: while in April it expected a net inflow of 0.2 million people to Ukraine in 2026, it now forecasts a net outflow of 0.2 million, which corresponds to the estimate of the net outflow this year. “Net return will only begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, compared to 0.5 million in the previous forecast),” the NBU added. In absolute terms, the National
Bank estimates the number of migrants currently remaining abroad at about 5.8 million.
According to updated data from the UNHCR, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of October 3, 2025, was estimated at 5.192 million (as of September 2 – 5.138 million), and globally – at 5.753 million (5.696 million).
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data for July this year, there are 3.340 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), compared to 3.757 million in April.
According to the annual report published on the WSE, the Kernel agricultural holding reduced its capital investments in the 2025 financial year by almost half — to $73 million compared to $143 million a year earlier.
According to Andriy Verevsky, 2025F was one of the most difficult periods: due to poor harvests and reduced stocks, farmers held back their products in anticipation of price increases.
“The EBITDA margin fell from $121 to $66 per tonne as a result of aggressive behaviour by producers who speculated on future prices,” he said.
Kernel is Ukraine’s largest exporter of agricultural products, controlling about 10% of the global sunflower oil market and 27% of Ukrainian exports. Its main assets are terminals in the Black Sea basin, oilseed processing plants, and a logistics network across the country.
