Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 will decrease by 33%, the main factors of the decline will be massive losses in production, demand and exports, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast of the analytical department of Alfa-Bank Ukraine.
Ukraine’s GDP will fall by 30% in 2022, and the country’s economy will grow by 25% next year, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) published such an updated forecast, while in March it estimated this year’s decline at 20%, and growth in the next year at 23%.
Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 30%, subject to a protracted war until the end of the year, and subject to a truce and the possible opening of ports – by 22-25%, such estimates were voiced by Dragon Capital Head Tomas Fiala.
Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will decrease by 30%, however, the unblocking of seaports would reduce the economic decline to 22-25%, Olena Bilan, chief economist at Dragon Capital, believes.
S&P Global Ratings lowered its foreign currency long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Ukraine to ‘CCC+/C’ from ‘B-/B’, the rating agency said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-March 2022 decreased by 40 times compared to the same period in 2021 – to $31.6 million from $1.272 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in April this year amounted to $191 million compared to a $900 million positive balance in March, the State Customs Service said.
According to its data and previously released data from the State Statistics Service, imports in April increased by about 63.3% compared to March, to $2.87 billion, while exports increased by only 0.8%, to $2.67 billion.
Inflation in Ukraine in annual terms in April may increase to 15.9% from 13.7% in March, this forecast was given by Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Kyrylo Shevchenko, referring to the NBU estimates based on web-scraping (a method of collecting prices from online supermarkets).
Ukraine’s total state debt in April grew by 0.84% in U.S. dollars to $97.62 billion, in hryvnias – by 0.84% to UAH 2.855 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
During the three months of the war, the construction industry of Ukraine has decreased more than 70%, despite the dot resumption of work at construction sites in Ukraine, while the cost of construction has increased by 20%, Director General of the Kovalska Industrial-Construction Group Serhiy Pylypenko has said.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
Video dedicated to macro economic figures is available via link https://youtu.be/dwh7Q6aZZBA
French President Emmanuel Macron said that granting the status of EU candidate countries to Ukraine and Moldova is a political signal in these circumstances, the entry itself will drag on for years.
“With regard to Moldova and Ukraine, it is quite clear that this (the decision of the European Candidates’ Status Council) is contextual. Yes, this is a political signal. I fully recognize this. And I said quite frankly today that it will take time (… ) that it will last for years,” Macron said Thursday evening at a press conference in Brussels after the decision of the European Council to grant candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova.
According to him, this decision is justified by the fact that we are talking about the neighboring environment of the European Union, which needs to be stabilized. Today, the “geopolitical response” in the context of hostilities is to provide such a perspective to these countries, the French president believes.
“Is this a good geopolitical prospect in the long run? I will answer you sincerely (…): no,” Macron continued, referring to the “fatigue phenomenon” of joining the European Union, which is a complex and time-consuming process. “The road is long,” he said.
That is why, the president explained, he proposed the initiative of the “European political community”, which he considers the right answer, in order to “stabilize the neighborhood” of the EU, offering close cooperation to European countries that are not members of the European Union, having different standards and situations, but sharing common values. .
And this is just being discussed at this EU summit, Macron said. “We need to build something: we can cooperate in terms of defense, geopolitics, energy, infrastructure, projects for the movement of people – a lot of specific things that will make it possible to change the lives of citizens (…) and build the wider geopolitical Europe that we need” – said the head of the French state.
But at the moment, Macron believes, “after NATO said “no” to Ukraine’s accession for good reasons, we would make a political mistake and leave a void if we didn’t reach out to Ukraine and Moldova.” And this justifies the recognition of the status of candidates for these two countries, the French president explained.
The European Broadcasting Union has confirmed the decision to transfer the international song contest Eurovision 2023 to another country and will continue to discuss the issue of finding a suitable venue.
“The EBU fully understands the disappointment caused by the announcement that the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 cannot be held in Ukraine, this year’s winning country. The decision was dictated by the EBU’s obligation to ensure that conditions are met to guarantee the safety of all who work and participate in the event for which planning must begin immediately in the host country,” the organization said in a statement.
The Broadcasting Union stated that it is essential that decisions made regarding the contest are made by broadcast professionals and do not become politicized, and also stressed that the rules of the contest clearly state that the event can be rescheduled in force majeure situations, such as like an ongoing war.
“The EBU sought advice from an outside security expert who made it clear that the countermeasures proposed to mitigate threats when planning the event in Ukraine were insufficient for an international public event, and the assessment of the risk of a mass casualty event due to the ongoing conflict is “high” , the statement says.
In addition, the EBU says that in addition to security concerns, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine makes delegations and participants reluctant to travel to the country.
“As for the possibility of holding the Contest in a border area near a neighboring country, the technical characteristics of the proposed venues and the lack of the necessary surrounding infrastructure do not meet the requirements of Eurovision,” the Broadcasting Union emphasizes.
In this connection, the EBU has decided to move the event to another country and will continue to discuss the issue of finding a suitable venue for Eurovision 2023.
As reported, on June 14, the official kick-off meeting of the Eurovision organizers from Ukraine with the Supervisory Board, partners of the International Song Contest and the EBU core team took place, discussed the issues of guarantees and preparation activities, a security questionnaire, potential locations for the contest.
At the same time, on June 17, the EBU refused Ukraine to host Eurovision in 2023 after analyzing the security situation in the country. He also announced that he would start negotiations with the BBC about the possible holding of the competition in the UK.
After that, the Minister of Culture and Information Policy Oleksandr Tkachenko said that Ukraine did not agree with the nature of the decision on the impossibility of holding the Eurovision 2023 international song contest in the country, and demanded to change it.
In turn, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed the hope that Ukraine will be able to host the Eurovision Song Contest next year in 2023.
Later, Poland also stated that it did not agree with the decision of the European Broadcasting Union to deprive Ukraine of the right to host Eurovision 2023.
The five-star Hilton Kyiv hotel will reopen on July 1, 2022, the company’s press service reported on Facebook on Thursday.
At the same time, the company emphasizes that the safety of guests and team members remains a key priority in difficult times. In particular, in order to ensure it in accordance with the recommendations of government agencies, the company added a number of security measures; an underground parking of the building is provided for a temporary shelter.
Hilton is one of the world’s leading hotel companies with 18 brands and more than 1 million rooms in 122 countries. In Ukraine, the first hotel of the Hilton Hotels & Resorts chain opened on March 26, 2014 in the capital – the five-star Hilton Kyiv. At the end of 2021, it was reported that the Hilton hotel company entered into a franchise agreement with the developer Gefest Group (Odessa) to implement a hotel project in Odessa, which is scheduled to open in the spring of 2025.
Passenger flow through western border of Ukraine in May 2022, in thousands (graphically)
Data: State Border Service
The European Council has published the conclusions of the meeting regarding granting Ukraine the status of a candidate member of the European Union.
“The European Council recognizes the European perspective of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova and Georgia. The future of these countries and their citizens lies in the European Union. The European Council has decided to grant the status of a candidate country to Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova,” says the third section of the conclusions entitled “Application for membership of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova and Georgia”.
The conclusions note that the European Commission is requested to report to the Council on “the fulfillment of the conditions specified in the Commission’s opinions on relevant applications for membership under its regular enlargement package”. “The Council will decide on further steps once all these conditions are fully met,” the document says.
With regard to Georgia, it is stated that the European Council is “ready to grant the status of a candidate country to Georgia after the priorities indicated in the Commission’s opinion on Georgia’s application for membership are resolved.”
“Each country’s progress towards the European Union will depend on its own merit in meeting the Copenhagen criteria, including the EU’s ability to admit new members,” the conclusions said.
