S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘B-/B’ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Ukraine. The outlook is stable. “While the economy is growing and inflation is on a downward path, the financing outlook is uncertain for government foreign currency redemptions beyond 2019, when Ukraine will have to negotiate a fresh agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF),” S&P said.
Ukraine faces sizable external debt repayments against the backdrop of presidential and parliamentary elections in 2019.
The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Ukraine will broadly comply with the terms of the $3.9 billion IMF stand-by arrangement, potentially with some delays.
Ratings pressure could build if disruptions to funding from concessional programs or capital market access over the next year call into question Ukraine’s ability to meet large external repayments over the remainder of the year and in 2020.
“An adverse final ruling in Ukraine’s legal battle with Russia over a Eurobond issued in December 2013, and held by Russia, could have implications for Ukraine, in our opinion. Such a ruling could be some years away. However in a worst-case scenario, it might create technical constraints for Ukraine’s ability to repay its commercial debt held by other creditors, which would pressure the ratings. We note that the government believes there is no potential for technical constraints on debt service, even in the case of an adverse ruling in the future,” S&P said.
“We could consider a positive rating action if we see improvements in growth, fiscal and external imbalances beyond our expectations, and if we conclude that the security situation in the non-government-controlled areas in the East of the country has stabilized and further escalation is unlikely,” S&P said.
Average retail prices for petrol in Ukraine in the period from April 5 through April 12, 2019 grew by 0.7-1%, while prices of diesel fuel remained unchanged, according to data from the A-95 Consulting Group (Kyiv). Prices of LPG continued growing, by 2.86% over the reporting period.
As reported, the average retail price for LPG in March rose by 20%, to UAH 12.57 per liter.
Changes in average retail fuel prices UAH per liter in Ukraine:
©Source: A-95 Consulting Company
One troy ounce=31.10 grams
Ukraine in March 2019 increased generation of electricity by renewable energy facilities 1.9 times (by 195.8 million kWh) compared to March last year, to 409 million kWh. According to the Energy and Coal Industry Ministry, in January-March 2019, the production of electricity by renewable energy facilities increased 1.6 times (by 317.5 million kWh) compared to the same period last year, to 850.3 million kWh.
The share of renewable energy in the structure of electricity production in March 2019 amounted to 2.9%, which is 1.5 p.p. more than in March 2018. The share of renewables in the first quarter of this year was 1.9%, which is 0.7 p.p. more than January-March 2018.
As reported, the forecast electric power balance of Ukraine, updated at the beginning of April, envisages production of electricity by renewable energy facilities in the amount of 5.979 billion kWh, which is 2.3 times (2.633 billion kWh) more than in 2018.
Ukraine in January-March 2019 introduced 861.1 MW of renewable energy facilities, which is 5.4 times more than in the same period of 2018, and 16% more than in the entire of 2018.
The Epicenter K Group, developing the agricultural business since 2016, has invested UAH 6 billion in agriculture and plans to invest UAH 2.5 billion more in silos, the co-owner of the company Halyna Hereha said at the Forum of Innovative Production Facilities Development held in Bila Tserkva on Thursday.
“We have invested UAH 6 billion in the agricultural sector, and we need another UAH 2.5 billion to complete the silo project. These are not only our funds, but also loans. Last year, we started building three silos and reconstructing six. Therefore, now a big investment is unrealistic,” she told Interfax-Ukraine.
According to Hereha, the company also intends to develop the dairy business. “We have animal husbandry of 20 dairy farms, but the volumes are small. In the future we plan to develop the business. There is a question of processing milk. We have not invested in animal husbandry yet, but we are discussing this,” she said.
Hereha also said that Epicenter also postponed the oilseeds processing project due to the unfavorable situation on the oilseeds market. “At present, the oil industry is declining, as producers cannot agree among themselves and simply dump the market. Therefore, we have stopped the processing process in the oil industry, but in the future we will do something interesting,” she said.
Hereha added that Epicenter is actively introducing new technologies, in particular, updating equipment and investing in the laboratory and precision farming. “In addition, we have a woodworking plant in Ivano-Frankivsk region. Now it makes a lot of products, a large percentage of them is exported, and some of them are for sale in the Epicenter [network],” she said.
