The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in 2023/24 marketing year (MY) by 0.5 million tons to 12.5 million tons, and corn by 1.0 million tons to 21.0 million tons.
According to the U.S. agency’s December report, the improvement in the forecast for wheat exports was made by reducing the estimate of year-end carryover balances by the same 0.5 million tons, to 2.58 million tons.
As for corn, the USDA raised the forecast for its harvest also by 1 million tons – up to 30.5 million tons.
In addition, the U.S. analysts improved the estimate of transitional corn residues by 0.39 million tons both at the beginning of this MY (up to 2.8 million tons) and at its end (up to 6.82 million tons).
Overall, the updated world wheat crop forecast for 2023/24 is improved by 1.03 million tons to 783.01 million due to positive revisions to estimates for Australia and Canada, offsetting a worsening of the forecast for Brazil.
The estimate for global wheat consumption is raised by 1.82 million tons to 794.66 million, and global exports by 2.18 million tons to 207.19 million tons: in addition to Ukraine, the estimates for the United States, Australia and Canada are improved.
As for corn, the forecast for its harvest in December was raised by 1.28 million tons to 1 billion 222.07 million tons, and for exports by 1.84 million tons to 201.46 million tons.
forecast for wheat exports, forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine, U.S. Department of Agriculture, USDA
Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak met with American businessman and philanthropist, chairman of the Open Society Foundations network, Alexander Soros.
According to the press service of the Office of the President, Yermak thanked Soros for participating in the first founding meeting of the International Coalition for the Return of Ukrainian Children, which took place on Friday in Kyiv.
“Your participation is very important. I hope that the coalition will demonstrate successful results,” said the Head of the Presidential Office.
Yermak also thanked for the adoption of the Memorandum of Cooperation between the Olena Zelenska Foundation and the International Renaissance Foundation. The document was signed at the initiative of the Open Society Foundations network. “According to the Memorandum, $1 million will be allocated to support children in Ukraine, in particular, children raised in large foster families in the frontline, de-occupied and affected regions of our country,” the statement said.
Yermak also expressed his gratitude to Alexander Soros for signing the Memorandum of Cooperation between the Advisor to the Presidential Commissioner Daria Gerasymchuk and the Open Society Foundations. The document will contribute to the most effective protection of the rights of children affected by the armed aggression of the Russian Federation and will help in the implementation of the President’s Plan Bring Kids Back UA, in particular, measures to return young citizens illegally deported by Russia.
“The Head of the President’s Office emphasized the importance of global publicity of the cases of deportation of Ukrainian minors by Russia. In his opinion, this can be facilitated by the publication of a book with stories about such children, as well as the involvement of world-famous personalities in the process of their return to Ukraine,” the press release reads.
Yermak also told Soros about projects to support veterans and their rehabilitation. He praised the signing of a Memorandum of Cooperation between the International Renaissance Foundation and the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, which provides for joint work in the field of psychological rehabilitation and psychological support for family members of military personnel, families of war victims, prisoners of war and internally displaced persons. As part of the Memorandum, pilot projects will be implemented in two institutions in Odesa region.
“Your family is doing a lot for Ukraine: important projects to protect our people, strengthen democracy, and make the Ukrainian state successful,” the Head of the Presidential Office said.
The parties also discussed opportunities for the development of the Ukrainian economy, in particular, the issues of recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has imposed penalties on JSC IC Opeka (Kiev) for late submission of reports for 9 months and PJSC IC Inter-plus (Kiev) for untimely and incomplete submission of information at the request of the regulator, the NBU website said on Friday.
As specified by the press-service, such decisions on measures of influence were taken on the results of a visitless supervision on December 7 and come into force on Friday.
It is indicated that insurers are obliged to pay the fine within seven working days from the date of receipt of the relevant decision of the NBU, but the size of fines regulator does not specify.
IC “Opeca” has been working in the insurance market since 2003. It specializes in risk insurance. In January-September 2023 the company has collected insurance premiums for UAH 7.97 mln, which is 12% less than in the same period a year earlier. Gross premiums decreased by 1.1% – to UAH 8.08 mln, premiums ceded to reinsurance increased by 7.9% – to UAH 0.85 mln, and net loss amounted to UAH 13 thousand
PJSC Insurance Company Inter-Plus carries out insurance activity in the field of risk insurance and has been working in the insurance market of Ukraine since 2003. Gross premiums of the company for the nine months of this year have grown 4,9 times – up to UAH 89,2 mln, while payouts have decreased by 21,8% – up to UAH 2,88 mln. As a result, net profit increased 17 times – up to UAH 32.58 mln.
The shareholders of the company are: Oleksandr Ivanenko c 51.35% of the authorized capital, Olena Chupyrkina, Lidiya Pshtika and Olena Tonkovid and Dmytro Odarchenko – 9.9% each, as well as Oleksiy Shvayko – 9.05%.
JSC IC Opeka, Oleksiy Shvayko, PJSC IC Inter-plus, The National Bank of Ukraine, Дмитро Одарченко, Лідія Пштіка, Олександр Іваненко, Олена Тонковід, Олена Чупиркіна
World food prices fell by 10.7% in November this year compared to the same month last year, unchanged from the revised October level. Their index stood at 120.4 points, according to the FAO (UN Food and Agriculture Organization) report.
The grain price index was 3% below October’s level and 19.4% below last year’s record high. World prices for coarse grains fell most significantly over the month – by 5.6%, primarily due to a sharp drop in global corn prices.
The vegetable oil price index increased 3.4% year-on-year in October after three months of continuous decline. This was due to the increase in world prices for palm and sunflower oils, which more than compensated for the decrease in quotations of soybean and rapeseed oils. Dynamics of price changes in annual terms is not given.
The price index for dairy products in November increased by 2.2% as compared with October. The growth continues for the second month in a row. But in annualized terms, prices fell 16.9%. “In November, there was an increase in global quotations of butter and skim milk powder, which was due to high import demand from Northeast Asian countries, limited stocks and increased domestic demand ahead of winter holidays in Western Europe,” the document explained.
The meat price index was 0.4% lower last month compared to October and 2.4% lower compared to November last year. These figures reflect a slight decrease in prices for poultry, pork and beef.
The sugar price index in November was up 1.4% from October and up 41.1% on a year-over-year basis. “The increase in sugar prices recorded in November was mainly due to growing concerns about a reduction in global export supply this season amid deteriorating crop outlooks in Thailand and India, which are major exporters,” the report said.
The FAO Food Price Index is a weighted average that tracks international price movements for five major food commodity groups.
grain price, meat price index, price index for dairy products, sugar price, vegetable oil price index, World food prices
Dragon Capital investment company, taking into account the increase in exports of raw materials through the sea corridor, a stable energy situation and a good harvest, improved its forecast for economic growth in 2023 from 4.5% to 5.2%, but kept it at 4% for 2024, the company said in a press release on Friday.
“Our updated estimate is that real GDP will grow 5.0% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2023, from the 3.0% we previously estimated,” the company said in a statement.
Its analysts estimate that Ukraine exported about 4 million tonnes of commodities through the new sea corridor in November, from 2 million tonnes in October. At the same time, agricultural goods accounted for about 60-70%, and the remaining share was occupied by the export of iron ore and steel. This dynamics contributes to the revitalization of related sectors, in particular freight transportation and trade, contributes to the recovery of ore production and metallurgy products, and also improves the financial indicators of agricultural enterprises, reducing risks to the harvest in 2024.
Dragon Capital, taking into account the latest data on yields of major agricultural crops, has improved its expectations for the harvest of grains and oilseeds this year from 77 million tonnes to 80 million tonnes (11% more year-over-year).
At the same time, the investment company said that an unexpected and unfavorable event was the blockade of the main crossing points of the Ukrainian-Polish border by Polish truckers in early November, which will have a limited adverse impact on economic activity.
Among the downsides of the blockade of the Ukrainian-Polish border are a decrease in state budget receipts, losses for manufacturers oriented towards the EU market, mainly in the food industry, woodworking and production of automotive electronics, a shortage of certain energy materials such as LPG, a delay in volunteer assistance for the front and financial losses of enterprises due to queues.
At the same time, Dragon Capital said, since the import of goods from the EU to Ukraine by road exceeds exports by $1.1 billion per month, the blockade leads to a reduction in the foreign trade deficit, which in recent months has fluctuated in the range of $2.8-3.0 billion per month.
“Due to the reduction in imports, some Ukrainian manufacturers of consumer goods are gaining a temporary competitive advantage,” the company added.
Speaking about the 4% forecast for economic growth next year, Dragon Capital named the partial restoration of exports by seaports as one of its key drivers and, accordingly, an increase in production in related sectors (ore mining, metallurgy, freight transportation, domestic trade). “The development of the domestic defense industry would also contribute to the economy,” the company said.
At the same time, the investment company said that economic recovery in 2023-2024 will not compensate for the 29% decline in 2022 caused by the consequences of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and real GDP in 2024 will remain 22% below its pre-war level.
“At the same time, nominal GDP in U.S. dollars could reach its pre-war level of $200 billion as early as next year due to relative exchange rate stability and high average annual inflation,” Dragon Capital said in the press release.
The company maintained its inflation forecast for this and next years at 6% and 8%, respectively, with the National Bank’s key policy rate unchanged at 15% after its expected reduction from 16% at the next meeting on December 14.
Dragon Capital also noted the importance of financial assistance from partners, pointing out that if there is a shortage, the government will have to turn to monetization of the budget deficit, which will decrease next year from 25% of GDP to 21% of GDP, or to increase the tax burden.
“We expect international partners to approve new economic support packages for Ukraine and provide about $40 billion in direct budget funding in 2024, although a delay in the release of funds is possible early next year,” the company said.
The company’s analysts expect that, subject to such external revenues, the National Bank’s gold and foreign exchange reserves will begin to gradually grow and reach $45 billion by the end of the year.
Dragon Capital kept its exchange rate expectations unchanged – UAH 37.30/$1 on average for 2024 and UAH 39.00/$1 at the end of the year.
The Verkhovna Rada has amended the Criminal and Criminal Procedure Codes of Ukraine to criminalize smuggling of goods and excisable goods, which is one of the conditions for the last tranche of the EU’s EUR 1.5 billion macro-financial assistance to Ukraine.
According to MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak (Holos faction), the committee’s version of the draft law was adopted, which was amended in accordance with the letters from the Ministry of Finance that the business insisted on.
“1) It is proposed to raise the thresholds for smuggling 5 times. 2) The thresholds for excisable goods are to be raised by 2 times. 3) The entry into force (criminalization) of commodity smuggling is postponed until mid-2024. As I said, this is the deadline under the (memorandum with the) IMF on the BES reboot,” the MP listed the changes.
He added that the numerous wishes of the business community have also been taken into account, and that actions can only be classified as a crime if there is intent.
“Possible cases of prosecution under ‘smuggling’ articles for submitting documents with false information have been significantly limited – in the amended version, they must be the basis for the movement of goods, be subject to mandatory declaration under customs law, and have an impact on determining the amount of customs payments or compliance with non-tariff regulation measures,” Zheleznyak said.
During the voting, no amendments were made to the text submitted by the committee to the Rada for the second reading, but the text itself is not yet available on the parliament’s website.
According to the representative of the relevant committee, Oleksandr Bakumov (Servant of the People), the threshold for criminal liability for smuggling is set at UAH 6.71 million, which is 50 times higher than in the draft law adopted as a basis (UAH 113.5 thousand – IF-U). He added that the threshold for smuggling excisable goods (except for electricity) has been increased by “thirty-three and three and a half times” compared to the original draft (UAH 56.75 thousand).
Members of the European Solidarity and Batkivshchyna parties, who criticized the draft law, called the main problems of the law the presence of law enforcement agencies in the customs control zone with the addition of the Bureau of Economic Security (BES) and the unresolved problems that led to the adoption of the law on smuggling decriminalization in 2011.
“Ukraine is the only country in Europe and in the World Customs Organization whose customs authorities are not vested with pre-trial investigation functions… We could have left only what is transported outside the customs posts to be considered smuggling,” says MP Nina Yuzhanina (European Union). According to the current legislation, only the illegal transportation of cultural property, poisonous, potent, explosive substances, radioactive materials, weapons or ammunition, parts of firearms, as well as special technical means of covertly obtaining information is considered smuggling.
