The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) has updated its estimate of the potential 2023 harvest, increasing it by 7.8 million tons to 76.8 million tons of grains and oilseeds, 3 million tons more than last year.
“The increase in this year’s crop forecast is due to favorable weather conditions and better-than-expected crop yields, although the area planted is 2.2 million hectares smaller than last year,” the association said in a statement on Thursday.
According to the updated forecast, exports from Ukraine in the new season 2023/2024 could potentially reach almost 48 million tons, while last season, which ended on June 30, according to UZA estimates, it reached 58 million tons worth about $20 billion.
It is specified that the 2023 wheat crop estimate has improved from 17.9 million tons to 20.2 million tons (2022 was 20.2 million tons and 2021 was a record 33 million tons). Potential wheat exports in MY 2023/2024 could be around 15 million tons, given the early season transitional residue of 4.3 million tons.
UZA also raised its 2023 barley crop forecast to 5.2 million tons from 4.4 million tons (10.1 million tons in 2021 and 5.8 million tons in 2022) and potential exports to 2.6 million tons.
Corn crop expectations for the new season have improved from 24.2 million tons to 26.9 million tons (2021 – 37.6 million tons, 2022 – 27.3 million tons), with potential exports of about 22 million tons, the report said.
According to it, the sunflower crop estimate for 2023 is raised from 12.7 to 13.9 million tons (2021 – 16.9 million tons, 2022 – 11.1 million tons), potential exports could be 1.1 million tons, and sunflower seed processing could be 12.5 million tons.
The UZA tentatively estimates the 2023 rapeseed harvest at 3.9 million tons and exports at 3.7 million tons, while the soybean harvest is expected to be larger – the estimate has increased from 4.4 to 4.8 million tons, and its potential 2023/2024 MY exports could reach 3.3 million tons.
UZA emphasizes that in general, grain and oilseed exports in the new 2023/2024 MY can be expected at the indicated level if Ukraine is able to export through its Black Sea ports and if logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route, improve and become cheaper.
“Further impediments to grain exports from Ukraine will have a negative impact on the availability of grain on the world market and will lead to higher prices and, consequently, increased food inflation in the world. Moreover, in case of impossibility to export products, Ukrainian farmers may reorient their production and refuse to grow grain, which will further aggravate the crisis in the world food market in the medium term,” UZA said.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) is an association of grain producers, processors and major exporters of grain, which annually export about 90 percent of Ukrainian grain products.
Areas planted with spring grains and pulses crops in 2021-2023, mln. ha
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Transit of Ukrainian grain through Poland is steadily growing: if in February it was 114 thousand tons, in June it exceeded 260 thousand tons, Polish Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Robert Telusz said after online talks on Wednesday with Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy Mykola Solskiy.
“This is very good news for agrarians, because grain from Ukraine does not enter the Polish market,” the Polish minister was quoted as saying in a tweet and on the ministry’s website.
At the same time, he said he saw a chance for the European Commission to extend the decision to ban Ukrainian grain exports to Poland after September 15, blaming both those in power in the EU and the Polish opposition for trying to destabilize Poland.
“It is in our interest to protect the Polish farmer. That is why a clear statement was made by Prime Minister Morawiecki that Ukrainian grain will not enter Poland after September 15,” Telusz reiterated.
According to him, the Polish side wants the so-called “solidarity corridors” to work effectively, which would allow for efficient transportation of Ukrainian goods without harming the Polish agricultural sector.
A press release from the Polish ministry indicates that to this end Telusz proposed measures to facilitate the transit of Ukrainian grain to seaports in various EU countries, in which Solsky was interested, but no other details are available and the Ukrainian ministry has not officially commented on the talks.
The Polish Ministry of Agriculture said that the Ukrainian side will also present a draft of detailed solutions in the near future. “He (Solsky – IF-U) explained that Russian missile strikes on Ukraine’s port infrastructure have put Ukrainian exporters in a very difficult situation. Now they will have to organize grain exports via other routes,” the release said.
Telush informed about ongoing negotiations with Lithuania and Latvia on the use of their ports for grain exports from Ukraine. “These negotiations are going in the right direction,” the minister added.
According to him, Poland has managed to significantly increase grain exports through its four main ports this year. In particular, if in January it amounted to 299 thousand tons, in February – 539 thousand tons, in March – 628 thousand tons, in April – 704 thousand tons, in May – 882 thousand tons, and in June – almost 940 thousand tons.
Poland exported more than 4.5 million tons of crops in 4 months of this year, stated Telusz.
It is noted that the ministers also raised the issue of access of Polish poultry products and eggs to the Ukrainian market, and currently the veterinary services of both countries are working intensively to resolve this issue.
The Polish Ministry of Agriculture pointed out that Ukraine is an important partner of Poland in agri-food trade. In 2022, an increase in agricultural exports to the Ukrainian market by 16% to $945.3 million was recorded. The main export items were: cheese and cottage cheese, products used for animal feed, and coffee. In April 2023, exports of agricultural products to the Ukrainian market increased by more than 35% compared to the same period in 2022, the release added.
Prices for oil of benchmark grades are rising weakly in trading on Thursday.
A day earlier, the market showed the most significant decline in more than a month, despite a record reduction in fuel inventories in the U.S. last week.
Quotes for October Brent crude futures on the London-based ICE Futures exchange as of 7:58 KV are at $83.26 per barrel, up $0.06 (0.07%) from the previous session’s closing price. On Wednesday, these contracts fell $1.71 (2%) to $83.2 per barrel.
The price of WTI crude oil futures for September at the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in the morning rose by $0.04 (0.05%) to $79.53 per barrel. At the end of the previous session they fell in price by $1.88 (by 2.3%) – to $79.49 per barrel.
Oil reserves in the U.S. last week decreased by 17.049 million barrels – to 439.77 million barrels, reported the country’s Department of Energy. Gasoline reserves increased by 1.48 million barrels, distillates – decreased by 796 thousand barrels.
Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights on average had forecast a 3.7 million barrel decline in oil reserves, a 1 million barrel decline in gasoline and a 400,000 barrel decline in distillates.
“Oil prices have fallen as the macroeconomic backdrop is killing sentiment,” believes Edward Moya, senior analyst at Oanda, implying, among other things, a downgrade of the US credit rating by Fitch. Also weighing on the oil market is the strong dollar, he told MarketWatch.
According to Matt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at Kpler, the combination of robust oil exports and refinery activity has led to the sharpest decline in U.S. oil inventories on record, he said. “The peak of summer refining coincided with very strong exports at the end of the month, and we shouldn’t expect such large” changes in reserves in the future, he believes.
Ukraine’s agrarian sector exports in July 2023 decreased by 29% year-on-year to 3.7 million tons due to the inability of transport to cross the border due to queues, the Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business (UCAB) reported.
“The disappointing export results are primarily due to the stoppage of the “grain corridor” on July 18, as well as its low activity even before the termination. In July 2023, only 292 thousand tons (of agro-products – IF-U) were exported through this channel. Also, Russia’s shelling of the infrastructure of the Danube river ports had a negative impact on export volumes,” the report says.
In the structure of agricultural exports in July compared to June, UCAB analysts noted a 40% reduction in the export of grain crops (2.3 million tons), where corn accounted for 51% of supplies, wheat – 36%, barley – 13%.
A 12% drop in the index was also shown by cakes extracted in the production of vegetable oils: 320.7 thousand tons of them were exported in July. The share of sunflower cake accounted for 91%, soybean cake – 9%.
At the same time, analysts noted a 37% increase in exports of oilseeds – up to 330 thousand tons. Rapeseed accounted for 73%, soybeans – 23%, sunflower seeds – 3%.
According to UCAB data, the export of vegetable oils also showed positive dynamics – 549.4 thousand tons, which is 7% higher than in June. The share of sunflower oil amounted to 92%, rapeseed and soybean oil – 4% each.
“The biggest drop in export volumes was demonstrated by the positions having significant weight at their relatively low value. They were mainly exported within the framework of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. These are grain crops and oilcakes,” the business association emphasized.
Analysts explained the growth of oilseeds export volume by the beginning of harvest and the start of its export from the country.
“The lack of export opportunities through seaports, the destruction of the infrastructure of seaports of the Odessa region and river ports of the Danube, the risk of a continued ban on imports of a number of Ukrainian agro-industrial products in neighboring EU countries will have a very negative impact on our future exports. We will be able to export products not when the world needs them, but when we have the opportunity to do so, and with significantly higher logistics costs,” the UCAB summarized, while emphasizing that resumption of free navigation is necessary both for Ukraine and the world.
Imports of energy autonomy equipment, mln USD
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
