Prices for benchmark crude oil are falling on Monday morning, continuing the decline of the past week.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:08 a.m. was $81.52 per barrel, which is $0.56 (0.68%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, these contracts fell in price by $0.88 (1.1%) to $82.08 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time fell by $0.59 (0.76%) to $77.42 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the contract fell by $0.92 (1.2%) to $78.01 per barrel.
Over the past week, the international benchmark fell by 1.8%, while the North American benchmark fell by 2.5%.
Investors are being cautious ahead of this week’s release of US inflation data and monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which could affect the market outlook, Trading Economics writes.
Traders are also following the truce talks between Israel and Hamas, which have not yet yielded significant results, and assessing China’s foreign trade statistics.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, oil imports from China in the first two months of the year fell by about 5.7% to 10.9 million barrels per day.
Internal and external debt of Ukraine in 2010-2023
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
The European Union will support Ukraine with transitional financing under the Ukraine Facility program, for which Ukraine will bring the State Land Cadastre and the State Register of Real Property Rights into line, as well as approve measures to support the implementation of industrial parks as a tool for attracting investment to the de-occupied territories.
As the Economy Ministry reported on Friday, these two steps, which are necessary to receive transitional funding, are currently under development.
The Ministry of Economy noted that three other steps have already been taken: the adoption of the National Revenue Strategy for 2024-2030; amendments to the Law on the Prosecutor’s Office and to laws to strengthen the independence of the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office and additional measures to prevent and combat illicit proceeds and terrorist financing.
The Ministry clarified that these five indicators were envisaged in the Ukraine Facility Plan, which has been discussed with the EU all along, for the beginning of 2024.
The Ministry of Economy noted that the Cabinet of Ministers on Friday, March 8, approved the text of the Memorandum of Understanding between Ukraine and the EU on transitional financing under the Ukraine Facility program, as well as the relevant loan agreement. After the signing of the documents, scheduled for March 11, Ukraine will be able to receive EUR 6 billion to cover current state budget expenditures until the program is fully launched.
It is explained that the signing of the Memorandum will allow Ukraine to attract EUR 4.5 billion in March 2024 to maintain macro-financial stability, and the next EUR 1.5 billion in April 2024.
As reported, in February 2024, the European Parliament approved the regulations of the Ukraine Facility program. According to it, the EU’s support for Ukraine in 2024-2027 will amount to EUR 50 billion, of which EUR 38.27 billion will be allocated to support the state budget, of which Kyiv expects EUR 16 billion in 2024.
The Ukraine Facility Plan is a technical document required to implement the EU’s financial support program for Ukraine. The plan is not a general renewal strategy, it will cover only a part of the state changes envisaged for the coming years with a focus on macroeconomic growth, the Ministry of Economy points out.
The preparation of the Plan is carried out by the government under the coordination of the Ministry of Economy in constant consultation with representatives of the European Commission, which ensured that the document meets most of the requirements of the approved regulations at the preliminary preparation stage, the ministry added.
As of the end of 2023, 4 million 303.12 thousand non-EU citizens who fled Ukraine as a result of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, had temporary protection status in EU countries, Eurostat reports.
“Compared to the end of December 2023, the largest absolute increase in the number of beneficiaries was observed in Germany (+18,905; +1.5%), the Czech Republic (+8,155; +2.2%) and Spain (+2,830; +1.5%),” the statistical agency said.
“The number of beneficiaries decreased in 5 EU countries, namely Italy (-18,125 people; -11.2%), Poland (-3,235; -0.3%), Estonia (-225; -0.6%), France (-205; -0.3%) and Luxembourg (-10; -0.2%),” Eurostat added.
As of the end of December, the European statistical office reported a slightly higher number of refugees with temporary protection status – 4 million 312.22 thousand, but the decrease in the total figure for the month is due to a decrease in data for the Netherlands – from 145.62 thousand at the end of December to 116.86 thousand at the end of January.
Over the past ten months, the largest increase was observed in Germany – a total of more than 204 thousand people, followed by the Czech Republic – 70.7 thousand.
According to Eurostat, as of the end of January 2024, the main EU countries that received recipients of temporary protection from Ukraine were Germany (1 million 270.15 thousand people; 29.5% of the total), Poland (951.56 thousand people; 22.1%) and the Czech Republic (381.19 thousand people; 8.9%). The total share of these three countries is 60.5%.
Eurostat specifies that, compared to the population of each EU member state, the largest number of temporary protection beneficiaries per thousand people in January 2024 was observed in the Czech Republic (35.2), Bulgaria (26.7), Estonia (26.4), Lithuania (26.2) and Poland (25.9), while the corresponding figure at the EU level is 9.6.
It is also said that as of January 31, 2024, Ukrainian citizens accounted for more than 98% of the beneficiaries of temporary protection. Adult women accounted for almost half (46.1%) of temporary protection beneficiaries in the EU, children for slightly more than a third (33.2%), while adult men accounted for slightly more than a fifth (20.7%) of the total. Eight months earlier, the share of women was 46.6%, children 34.6% and adult men 18.8%.
According to the data presented, in January, Spain remained the fourth largest country in the EU with the status of temporary protection for refugees from Ukraine – 197.75 thousand, and Bulgaria closed the top five with 172.28 thousand.
As of the end of January 2024, there were also more than 100 thousand such persons in Romania – 147.52 thousand, Italy – 143.25 thousand, the Netherlands – 116.86 thousand, Slovakia – 116.01 thousand, and Ireland – 102.80 thousand.
Between 50 thousand and 100 thousand of them were in Austria – 83.56 thousand, Lithuania – 75.35 thousand, Belgium – 75.76 thousand, Norway – 68.15 thousand, France – 64.73 thousand (data on children are mostly not included – Eurostat), Finland – 64.95 thousand and Portugal – 59.46 thousand.
This is followed by Latvia – 44.14 thousand, Sweden – 44.39 thousand, Estonia – 35.72 thousand, Denmark – 36.64 thousand, Hungary – 34.25 thousand, Greece – 27.10 thousand, Croatia – 23.18 thousand, Cyprus – 19.53 thousand, Luxembourg – 4.22 thousand, Iceland – 3.98 thousand, Malta – 1.99 thousand and Liechtenstein – 0.57 thousand.
Eurostat clarified that all the above data relate to the granting of temporary protection on the basis of EU Council Decision 2022/382 of March 4, 2022, which establishes the existence of a massive influx of displaced persons from Ukraine due to Russia’s military invasion and entails the introduction of temporary protection.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of February 15 this year was estimated at 6.004 million, and 6.480 million in the world as a whole, which is 29 thousand and 30 thousand more than at the beginning of the year, respectively.
In Ukraine itself, according to the UN, as of November 6, there were 3.674 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), compared to the previous estimate of 5.088 million. “This (significant reduction) is not due to a significant return of IDPs, but rather, first of all, to a change in the methodology for calculating the number of IDPs. The new baseline population figure used to extrapolate IDP estimates now takes into account the absence of some 6.2 million refugees from Ukraine who are no longer in the country,” UNHCR explains.
As noted by Deputy Economy Minister Serhiy Sobolev in early March last year, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP. The Ministry of Economy has included in its macroeconomic forecast for this year 1.5 million people returning to Ukraine, while the National Bank, on the contrary, expects an outflow of 0.1 million from Ukraine after 0.2 million in 2023.
Eurozone GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 was unchanged from the previous three months, according to final data from the European Union’s statistics office (Eurostat).
In annual terms, the eurozone economy grew by 0.1%.
The dynamics of both indicators coincided with the previously announced data and expectations of experts surveyed by Trading Economics. For comparison, in the third quarter, the eurozone GDP declined by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and grew by 0.1% in annual terms.
Consumer spending in October-December rose 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, government spending rose 0.6% and business investment rose 1%. The volume of exports remained unchanged, imports – increased by 0.6%.
The eurozone economy grew by 0.4% for the whole of 2023, according to the final Eurostat data. Thus, the rate of upturn slowed significantly from 3.4% in 2022.
The European Union’s GDP in the fourth quarter was unchanged from the previous three months and grew by 0.2% in annualized terms. At the same time, the volume of the EU economy for 2023 increased by 0.4% after an increase of 3.4% a year earlier (i.e. the dynamics of both indicators coincided with changes in GDP of the euro area).
Earlier, the information and analytical center Experts Club detailed the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and in the world – as follows
Forecast of changes in discount rate of National Bank of Ukraine, %
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
