Ensuring the stability of the energy system and organizing international support are the tasks that Ukrainians believe the government is doing best. At the same time, the lowest ratings were given to the state’s efforts to fight corruption and manage the seized property of sanctioned persons. These data were presented by Active Group at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Wednesday.
“Our research was focused on assessing public opinion, which is a key element in the process of governance. We decided to find out how and in what state public opinion is now regarding certain socially important issues,” said Roman Yaroshenko, director of the Foundation for Research for the Future.
He also emphasized that an important part of the research was to study attitudes towards various agencies and organizations.
In his turn, Andriy Yeremenko, founder of the research company Active Group, emphasized that modern technologies were used to analyze the survey results. According to the survey results, the statistical error does not exceed 2.2%, which makes the data quite representative.
“Answering the question ‘What tasks does the Ukrainian government do best?’ 29.6% of Ukrainians said that they are coping with ensuring the stability of the energy system, 26.6% – with organizing international support, 20.7% – with defense against Russian aggression. The last on the list were the tasks of fighting corruption: only 3.5% of respondents believe that the government has coped with this task; managing the property of sanctioned persons, which is handled by the Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA) – 2.5%; and justice – 1.1%. A third of respondents (33.2%) believe that the government is not coping with any of the tasks, and one in five (21.3%) have not decided on the answer,” said Andriy Yeremenko.
To the question “What is your attitude to the seizure of assets of persons under sanctions in Ukraine?” 72.8% of Ukrainians answered positively, of which 50.9% were very positive, 21.9% were rather positive, and 12.6% were neutral. On the other hand, 3.9% of respondents have a negative attitude toward asset seizures, including 3.3% who are rather negative and 0.6% who are very negative. 10.7% of respondents have not decided on the answer.
To the question “In your opinion, how transparent is the management of seized assets in Ukraine?” 12.9% of respondents believe that it is transparent, of which 2% said it is completely transparent, and 10.9% said it is mostly transparent. However, 62.7% of respondents believe the opposite, of whom 35.1% said it is mostly not transparent, 27.6% said it is completely not transparent. A quarter of respondents (24.4%) have not decided on their answer.
Answering the question “In your opinion, how effective is the management of seized assets in Ukraine for the state?” 13.9% of respondents believe that it is effective, of which 2.2% said “completely effective” and 11.8% said “mostly effective”. On the other hand, half of the respondents (50.3%) do not think so, 43% of them said that management is mostly ineffective, 7.3% – completely ineffective. More than a third of respondents (35.7%) have not decided on the answer.
The respondents were also asked “Which of these bodies best contribute to Ukraine’s development?” According to the respondents, the Security Service of Ukraine (29.4%), the President (27.8%), and the local authorities of your city (20.7%) are the best helpers. The last places on the list are occupied by the Prosecutor’s Office (3.5%), the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption and the Agency for Finding and Management of Assets Derived from Corruption and Other Crimes (3.3%). The fact that no government agency helps is believed by 36.4% of respondents.
The full presentation with the results of the survey can be downloaded here.
The research was conducted by Active Group using the SunFlower Sociology online panel. Method: Self-completion of questionnaires by Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older. Sample: 2000 questionnaires (representative by age, gender and region of Ukraine). Data collection period: May 4, 2024.
In January-March this year, Ukrtruboprom enterprises increased pipe production by 12.6% year-on-year to 142.5 thousand tons.
According to the company’s data on Tuesday, in January 2024, it produced 52.5 thousand tons of pipe products (174.4% compared to January 2023), in February – 41.4 thousand tons (105.1% compared to February 2023), in March – 48.6 thousand tons (85.1% compared to March 2023).
In the first quarter, almost all pipe companies showed positive dynamics. In particular, Interpipe Nico Tube and Trubostal increased production of seamless pipes by 11.5% and 75%, respectively, Centravis increased production of stainless pipes by 13.8%, and Interpipe NMTZ and Ukrtruboizol increased production of electric-welded pipes by 69.2% and 714.3%, respectively. Only Oscar’s pipe production decreased by 43.2%.
Ukrtruboprom CEO Georgy Polsky stated that the positive results of the first quarter of 2024 were primarily due to the low comparison base of the previous year, when the industry operated under strict electricity consumption limits. This led to an increase in production “on paper”.
“In reality, the rate of pipe production is slowing down, and in March, a 15% decline was recorded. The main reason is a significant increase in imports of steel pipes from China to Ukraine at dumping prices, which are supported by Chinese government subsidies,” Mr. Polsky emphasized.
He also added that the US and the EU have recently been actively working to develop and implement protectionist measures that will limit the flow of Chinese goods into their markets. The Ukrainian steel pipe market also needs protection from dumped imports from China, the Ukrtruboprom CEO summarized.
As reported, Ukrtruboprom’s enterprises increased production by 10.2% to 495.6 thousand tons in 2023, but could have done more if the volume of Chinese products in the domestic market had declined.
In particular, Interpipe Niko Tube increased its production of seamless pipes by 13.3%, while Trubostal reduced its output by 42.5%. Ukrtruboizol increased production of electric-welded pipes by 43.8%, while Interpipe NMTZ decreased production by 53.8%. “Centravis increased production of stainless pipes by 11.7%. Oscar’s pipe production decreased by 30.5%.
At the same time, it was specified that in January 2023, the company produced 30.1 thousand tons of pipe products (44.9% compared to January 2022), in February – 39.4 thousand tons (80.4% compared to February 2022), in March – 57.1 thousand tons (1631.4% compared to March 2022), in March – 57.1 thousand tons (1631.4% compared to March 2022). tons (1631.4% compared to March 2022), in April – 42.3 thousand tons (228.6% compared to April 2022), in May – 49.6 thousand tons (96.5% compared to May 2022), in June – 35 thousand tons (67.8% compared to June 2022). In July 2023, the company produced 43.9 thousand tons of pipes (112% compared to July 2022), in August – 41.8 thousand tons (114.5%), in September – 36.9 thousand tons (89.9%), in October – 39.7 thousand tons (98%), in November – 37.2 thousand tons (110.1%) and in December – 42.4 thousand tons (239.5%).
Ukraine’s gross domestic product growth will slow to 3% this year from 5.3% last year, but will accelerate to 6% next year, according to the EBRD’s updated regional economic report released on Wednesday.
“Despite Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023, supported by a record harvest, damage to electricity infrastructure from recent shelling is one of the factors likely to limit further growth in 2024,” the bank said, also highlighting the risks of damage to port infrastructure.
He noted that the forecast for Ukraine coincides with the overall forecast for 2024 for the regions in which the EBRD operates (Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean).
“Regional growth accelerated this year, up from 2.5% in 2023, despite challenges posed by global geopolitical tensions, including increased trade restrictions. In 2025, the EBRD regions are projected to grow further at 3.6%,” the report says.
The Bank notes that the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 was driven not only by record harvests, but also by increased defense spending, which supported domestic demand, but net exports continued to decline. Among other positive factors, he pointed to the successful restoration of electricity supply after Russian shelling of civilian infrastructure last winter, as well as the resilience and adaptability of Ukrainian business.
As stated in the document, an additional stabilizing factor in 2023 was the timely receipt of external financing, which made it possible to keep inflation at the target level of about 5%. Thanks to these inflows, the country’s official international reserves increased to a record level, but the level of public debt also rose to almost 90% of GDP.
“However, in 2024, new challenges emerged, in particular, due to the prospect of a protracted war of attrition and uncertainty in obtaining external financing, which lasted for several months. Limited domestic demand, labor shortages and insufficient investment are also factors that negatively affect the growth rate,” the EBRD stated.
At the same time, it points out that a significant positive factor was the opening of a new coastal Black Sea export corridor. This has partially reduced uncertainty about the security of using the Black Sea for exports of not only grain, but also metals and mining products, which have suffered the most over the past two years.
The report also highlights a sharp increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) from Ukraine to emerging Europe in 2022 from low levels before, driven by the arrival of skilled workers from Ukraine to neighboring countries, with software and IT services driving FDI.
In general, the EBRD report, subtitled “Taming Inflation,” says that inflationary pressures in the bank’s regions of operation have eased compared to last year, which saw an economic downturn due to higher energy prices as a result of the war in Ukraine and the post-war recovery.
The report describes how geopolitical tensions are affecting the EBRD’s countries of operation, leading to rapid trade fragmentation and increased defense spending, and thus a reduction in the so-called “peace dividend” – the economic benefits of reduced defense spending and reinvestment of the resulting savings in the civilian economy. Although growth is projected to continue in the bank’s regions, the updated forecast is 0.2 percentage points (p.p.) lower than last year’s September forecast.
Due to lower energy and food prices after a sharp rise in 2022, inflation in the EBRD regions fell to an average of 6.3% in March 2024 from a peak of 17.5% in October 2022. Although this fall was faster than expected a year ago, inflation is still 2 percentage points above pre-crisis levels. This is in line with trends in developed economies, where inflation has also declined but still exceeds central bank targets. The forecast also emphasizes the slower pace of inflation decline in EBRD countries with higher budget deficits and weaker macroeconomic frameworks.
In the report, the bank improved its estimate of Russia’s GDP growth in 2024 from 1% to 2.5%, but expects it to slow to 1.5% next year.
For Poland, the forecast for this year has been improved by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% with an acceleration to 3.5% next year, while for Turkey it has been lowered by 0.3 percentage points this year to 2.7% with an acceleration to 3% next year.
On Wednesday, tobacco manufacturer Philip Morris International officially opened a new factory in Lviv region, in which it has invested $30 million.
“The first line is already in operation. The second line is almost completed and will start operating in June… In total, five lines will be installed, 10 billion cigarettes will be produced, which will fully meet the needs of the local market of Ukraine,” said Philip Morris Ukraine (PMU) CEO Maxim Barabash at the opening of the factory.
He emphasized that the focus of the production is to cover the market demand for cigarettes.
According to Barabash, there are no plans to expand production for export or manufacture other products.
According to PMU, 250 jobs will be created at the factory. By now, the company already employs about 100 people relocated from the Kharkiv factory, which was “mothballed” on February 24, 2024, the day of the Russian invasion, and another 150 people are planned to be relocated by the end of the year.
“My dream for the future after the victory is that we have two factories. One would produce cigarettes, and the other would be in Kharkiv, working on new products that would be relevant and relevant at the time when this comes true,” Barabash summarized.
According to him, this year Philip Morris celebrates 30 years of operation in Ukraine. During this time, the company has invested about $750 million in the Ukrainian economy and is one of the largest taxpayers.
Philip Morris was spun off from Altria in 2008 and is one of the world’s largest tobacco manufacturers. The company’s revenue for 2023 increased by 10.7% compared to 2022 to $35.2 billion, and for the first quarter of 2024 – by 9.7% to $8.79 billion. The report states that Ukraine accounts for approximately 2% of total sales in physical terms and 1% in monetary terms.
In 2022, PMI reduced shipments to the Ukrainian market by 30.1% to 11.07 billion cigarettes and tobacco sticks due to the war, but in 2023 it managed to increase shipments of finished products by 8.4%, including 14.9% in the fourth quarter. Last October, the company announced that it had recovered its share of the Ukrainian market to 24% after it fell to 14% from 28.5% in the first months after Russia’s invasion.
Prior to the launch of the new factory, PMU was forced to import products from eight PMI factories outside the country and a temporary partnership with another international manufacturer in Ukraine.
In addition to cigarettes, PMI develops and manufactures smokeless products, such as systems for electrically heating tobacco, POD systems containing nicotine, and nicotine products for oral administration. Sales of smokeless products accounted for 39% of PMI’s total net revenue in the first quarter of 2024.
The Cabinet of Ministers has ordered an internal investigation into Deputy Minister of Education and Science Mykhailo Vinnytsky at the request of the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NAPC).
According to Decree No. 428 of May 14, the government, in accordance with the Law on Prevention of Corruption and at the request of the NAPC, has ordered an internal investigation into Deputy Minister of Education and Science Mykhailo Vinnytsky.
It is noted that the Ministry of Education and Science has been designated as the body responsible for organizing the official investigation.
According to the decision, the internal investigation should be conducted within two months.
Population forecast for Ukraine in 2030-2100
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
