Yevgen Osipov, CEO of the agricultural holding “Kernel,” anticipates—in a stress scenario—a 12-million-metric-ton decline in grain production in Ukraine next year due to a possible reduction in planted acreage by farmers, if no solution is found within the next six months to resume exports, according to a correspondent for the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
“It is difficult to make such forecasts today. We hope that some solutions will be found in the next six months. If no practical solution is found, then, objectively speaking, the area under cultivation will be reduced. In such a stress scenario, we estimated this would result in a shortfall of 12 million metric tons of grain next year,” he said at the “Forbes Ukraine” Economic Resilience Forum in Kyiv on Wednesday.
According to Osipov, with seaports closed, Ukraine will be able to export only about 20 million metric tons of the 50 million metric tons of agricultural products needed—that is, 40% of the required volume—so companies are having to pivot to other business models.
“Based on our own experience with the most recent export corridors, about 50% of the operations were inefficient; we need to find new ways. Because right now, for businesses, it’s a matter of building a new business model. In other words, the old business model doesn’t work there anymore. That’s why, for our part, we’re focusing on processing and exporting processed products,” Osipov noted.
According to him, under its new business model, “Kernel” is focusing on exporting smaller volumes of products with higher added value, while retaining the ability to purchase oilseeds from Ukrainian farmers, pay them, and export processed products.
Osipov also added that, due to security and logistical constraints as well as external factors, it is currently not realistic to expect that the Danube ports will be able to handle the same volume of shipments that Ukraine had in 2022–2023.
As previously reported, in its September report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for this year’s wheat production in Ukraine by 0.6 million metric tons compared to the August forecast—to 26 million metric tons—and its estimate for other grains (excluding wheat and corn) by 0.5 million metric tons, to 7.29 million metric tons, and maintained its corn production forecast at 31.8 million metric tons. Thus, the USDA estimates Ukraine’s total grain production this year at 65.09 million metric tons.
In January–August 2026, Ukraine produced 4.1 million metric tons of raw milk, which is 13% less than in the same period of 2025, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), citing preliminary data from the State Statistics Service.
In January–August, agricultural enterprises accounted for 54% of raw milk production, while private farms accounted for 46%.
In August, private households produced 268,000 metric tons of raw milk, which is 5.2% less than in July and 28% less than in August 2025. From January through August, their production fell by 27% to 1.89 million metric tons.
In August, industrial enterprises produced 275,700 metric tons of raw milk, which is 1.9% less than in July but 2.8% more than in August 2025. In January–August, milk production on commercial dairy farms increased by 5%, to 2.21 million metric tons.
The industrial sector is increasing raw milk production compared to the same period last year, particularly due to growth in the western regions.
“The Rivne region is showing the highest growth rates in raw milk production. Improved efficiency in dairy cattle farming has contributed to increased milk yields in the Chernihiv region. Among the leaders in terms of milk yield growth are the western regions of Lviv, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk, as well as Chernihiv and Zhytomyr. Meanwhile, the Poltava region remains the leader in raw milk production,” the report states.
In January–August, approximately 55% of the raw milk produced by agricultural enterprises came from five regions: Poltava—318,700 metric tons, Cherkasy—267,800 metric tons, Khmelnytskyi—210,900 metric tons, Chernihiv—208,200 metric tons, and Vinnytsia—199,300 metric tons.
The AVM forecasts an increase in prices for dairy products due to rising transportation costs for delivering them to retail chains as a result of Russian shelling and the lengthening of logistics routes. This could lead to a decline in consumer demand and a decrease in the production of fresh dairy products.
Sunflower seed production in Ukraine could rise to 13 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing year after falling to 10.7 million metric tons in the previous season, according to a forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Thus, the expected yield increase is about 21.5%. The figure effectively returns to the level of the 2024/25 marketing year, when Ukraine also harvested about 13 million metric tons of sunflowers.
According to the USDA forecast, Ukraine will retain its second place among the world’s largest sunflower producers, behind Russia.
Production in Russia in the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to reach 21 million metric tons, in Ukraine—13 million metric tons, in the EU—9.725 million metric tons, in Argentina—8 million metric tons, and in Turkey—1.825 million metric tons. The global sunflower crop could reach 63.65 million metric tons, compared to 55.17 million metric tons in the previous season.
The USDA attributes the recovery of the global sunflower market to an increase in planted acreage following two seasons of relatively low yields in the Black Sea region. Higher harvests in Ukraine and Russia are expected to be one of the main drivers of growth in global sunflower oil trade.
The USDA estimates domestic consumption of sunflower seeds in Ukraine at 12.775 million metric tons, indicating that the processing industry remains operating at high capacity.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, September 2026.
In August 2026, Ukrainian exporters increased exports of fresh or chilled beef nearly 25-fold compared to August 2025—to 474 metric tons, while exports of frozen beef rose by 34.2%, to 1,820 metric tons, according to the Milk Producers Association, citing preliminary data from the State Customs Service.
Export revenue from shipments of fresh or chilled beef in August increased 37-fold year-over-year—to $3.95 million—and rose by 44% compared to July. In volume terms, exports increased by 38% compared to the previous month.
In January–August 2026, Ukraine exported 3.04 thousand metric tons of fresh or chilled beef worth $24.36 million. Compared to the same period in 2025, export volumes increased 25-fold, and revenue rose nearly 34-fold.
Exports of frozen beef in August totaled 1.82 thousand metric tons, which is 8% more than in July and 34.2% more than in August 2025. Export revenue from frozen beef rose by 7% compared to July and by 32% compared to August of last year, reaching $8.16 million.
Over the first eight months, Ukraine exported 12,750 metric tons of frozen beef (+1%) worth $57.56 million (+12%).
Exports of live cattle in August totaled approximately 1.32 thousand metric tons, which is 1% more than in July and 31% more than in August 2025. At the same time, revenue from cattle exports fell by 11% compared to July but rose by 30% compared to August 2025, reaching $3.62 million.
In January–August, Ukraine exported 13,470 metric tons of live cattle (+5.9%) worth $32.31 million (+14%).
As for imports, Ukraine did not import any cattle in August. Imports of chilled beef totaled 9 metric tons, which is 40% less than in July 2026 and 40% less than in August 2025. Imports of frozen beef totaled 84 metric tons, down 32% from July but up 38% from August of last year.
In the first eight months of 2026, imports of cattle fell to 93 metric tons (-82%), and imports of frozen beef fell to 754 metric tons (-25%), while imports of chilled beef rose to 99 metric tons (+4%).
The trade balance for these commodity lines in August 2026 was positive, amounting to $14.95 million.
The association also notes that the global beef market is entering a period of declining supply and restructuring of trade flows. According to Rabobank’s estimates, global beef production in 2026 could decline by nearly 2%.
Potato production in Ukraine in 2026 is expected to reach about 12.5 million metric tons, which will be sufficient to meet domestic food needs, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing Minister Taras Vysotsky.
“Potato production this year is expected to total about 12.5 million metric tons. The available volume is more than enough for the domestic market. The population consumes a maximum of 2–2.5 million metric tons per year. The rest of the harvest is traditionally used as seed potatoes and animal feed,” Vysotsky noted.
According to Vysotsky, potatoes are grown as a cash crop in Ukraine by about 400 specialized enterprises on a total area of approximately 60,000 hectares. A significant portion of the harvest is traditionally grown by households for their own consumption.
According to the State Statistics Service, the average selling price of potatoes currently stands at about 14 UAH per kilogram. Over the past week, it has fallen by 5%, and over the past month—by 15%; in some places, purchase prices have dropped to 12 UAH per kilogram.
Final figures on potato production will be available after the harvest campaign is complete, the ministry noted.
The volume of processing of major oilseeds in Ukraine during the 2026/27 marketing year could reach 16.9 million metric tons, which is 14% higher than the previous season’s figure, according to a forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
In the 2025/26 marketing year, processing is estimated at 14.8 million metric tons, while in the 2024/25 marketing year it stood at about 15.7 million metric tons. Thus, the new forecast exceeds even the relatively high pre-war levels of previous seasons.
At the same time, exports of oilseeds from Ukraine are projected at 4.95 million metric tons, compared with 4.12 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year. The increase could be about 20%.
However, seed exports will still be significantly lower than the 2024/25 marketing year figure—7.39 million metric tons. Compared to that figure, the projected volume is about one-third lower.
This trend indicates a continued shift toward increasing domestic processing of raw materials rather than exporting them in their unprocessed form.
According to the April report by the USDA agricultural attaché in Kyiv, the growth of processing is also driven by excess capacity at Ukrainian oilseed and fat processing plants, a shortage of sunflower seeds in the previous season, and changes in the trade regime for rapeseed and soybeans. The USDA office expected this trend to continue into the 2026/27 marketing year.
Ukraine primarily processes sunflower seeds, as well as soybeans and rapeseed. A recovery in the sunflower seed harvest to 13 million metric tons will allow plants to increase their production of oil and meal while simultaneously boosting exports of higher-value-added products.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, September report Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade dated September 11, 2026.
