The pace of harvesting in Ukraine due to rainy weather is significantly inferior to last year’s, especially for corn, which by November 4 was harvested on 27% of the area (1.14 million hectares), while last year on this date was thinned 61% of the area (3.3 million hectares).
“Harvesting in Ukraine is slower than last year, and the average moisture content is very high due to the long rains in September and October. Farmers hope that frosts will reduce the moisture content of corn from 22-28% to an acceptable 16-20%, so they plan to postpone harvesting until winter or spring, especially if exports from the Black Sea ports are blocked, which will lead to lower prices,” according to the website of the electronic grain exchange GrainTrade on Monday.
Besides, this season the cost of drying grain has increased two or three times as compared to last year, from 60-100 UAH/ton/percent to 160-250 UAH/ton/percent due to the rise in price of gas and diesel fuel.
The exchange also specified that agrarians of Vinnitsa and Chernovtsy regions have already finished sunflower harvesting, while in Kharkiv region only 42% of sunflower crops are threshed. Most of all 380 thousand tons of soybeans were harvested in Khmelnytsky region and most of all the sugar beets (1.9 million tons) – in Vinnitsa region. The highest yield of grain and leguminous crops – 6.22 tons / ha was obtained by farmers of Khmelnytsky region.
As it was reported, Ukrainian agrarians harvested 53.11 million tons of major crops from the total area of 15.13 million hectares on November 4, with 4.3 million tons from 2 million hectares from October 28 – November 4.
The final yield of wheat in this season amounted to 19.2 million tons from 4.7 million hectares, barley – 5.5 million tons from 1.6 million hectares, rape – 3.1 million tons from 1.96 million hectares, pea – 261 tons from 111.5 million hectares.
In addition, November 4, 9 million tons of sunflower was gathered from 4.1 million hectares, 6.4 million tons of sugar beets from 105 thousand hectares, 6.3 million tons of corn from 1.1 million hectares, 3.1 million tons of soy from 1.3 million hectares, 151 tons of buckwheat from 111 thousand hectares and 98 tons of millet from 42.6 ha.
According to the Ministry, the average yield by all crops in the current season was 40.7 c/ha, including corn – 55.4 c/ha, wheat – 41.2 c/ha, of barley – 35.1 c/ha, rape – 28.9 c/ha, soybeans – 23.9 c/ha, peas – 23.4 c/ha, millet – 23.1 c/ha, sunflower – 22.0 c/ha, buckwheat – 13.6 c/ha, sugar beets – 488 c/ha.
From the beginning of the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, began on July 1-2022) and until September 26, Ukraine exported 7.51 million tons of grain crops, of which 4.23 million tons of corn (56% of total supplies), 2.61 million tons of wheat (35%) and 635 thousand tons of barley (8%).
As reported on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on Monday, the rate of grain exports since the beginning of the current MY is 1.75 times lower than the same period of the last MY (13.13 million tons were exported from July 1 to September 26, 2021).
It is specified that in general, since the beginning of September, 3.21 million grains and leguminous crops have been exported, including 1.35 million tons of wheat, 1.54 million tons of corn, 305 thousand tons of barley, 9.9 thousand tons of flour and 2 .1 thousand tons of rye.
At the same time, according to the ministry, for the period of September 21-26, 0.63 million tons of grain crops were supplied to foreign markets (an average of 126 thousand tons daily), while for the previous reporting periods of September 9-21 – an average of 132.5 thousand tons daily, August 31-September 9 – 147.8 thousand tons daily, August 26-31 – 110 thousand tons / day, and August 19-26 – 61.4 thousand tons / day. Thus, the average daily export rate for the last 5 days decreased by 5% compared to the previous period of September 9-21.
In terms of crops for the period September 21-26, 313 thousand tons of wheat, 280 thousand tons of corn, 37 thousand tons of barley, 1.5 thousand tons of flour and 0.2 thousand tons of rye were sent abroad.
According to the agency, in general, from the beginning of 2022/2023 MY and until September 26, 2022, Ukraine exported 2.61 million tons of wheat (3.04 times less compared to the same date in 2021/2022 MY), 635 thousand tons of barley ( 5.64 times less), 2.6 thousand tons of rye (11 times less) and 22 thousand tons of flour (35.5% less). At the same time, the pace of corn exports exceeded last year’s volumes – 4.23 million tons were exported, which is 3.03 times higher than in 2021/2022 MY.
As reported, in the 2021/2022 marketing year, Ukraine exported 48.51 million tons of grains and legumes, which is 8.4% higher than the previous marketing year, despite the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation and difficulties with the export of agricultural products due to the blockade of Ukrainian seaports. 18.74 million tons of wheat were delivered to foreign markets (12.6% more than in 2020/2021MY), 23.54 million tons of corn (+1.9%), 5.75 million tons of barley (+35.9%) , 70.9 thousand tons of flour (-44.1%).
In 2020/2021 MY, the country exported 44.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops: 16.64 million tons of wheat, 23.08 million tons of corn, 4.23 million tons of barley, 126.9 thousand tons of flour and 18.4 thousand . tons of rye.
In 2019/2020 MY, Ukraine exported 56.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops.
In its September report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the forecast for the harvest of Ukrainian corn in 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) by 1.5 million tons compared to August, up to 31.5 million tons from 30 million tons, and its export estimate has been raised by 0.5 million tons to 13 million tons from 12.5 million tons.
According to a report on the US Department of Agriculture website on Tuesday, the estimate of domestic corn consumption in Ukraine has been increased by 1 million tons – from 10.5 million tons to 11.5 million tons.
In the new forecast, the agency also raised the forecast for wheat production in Ukraine in 2022/2023 MY by 1 million tons – up to 20.5 million tons from 19.5 million tons, while the estimate of its exports remained at the same level – 11 million tons. At the same time, the forecast for its domestic consumption in Ukraine has also been increased by 0.5 million tons – up to 5.5 million tons from 5 million tons.
“Forecast of production (wheat – IF) in Ukraine increased by 1 million tons, to 20.5 million, as the harvest is almost completed, and government statistics indicate higher final yields in the forest and forest-steppe zones,” the Ministry of Agriculture said in a report. USA.
In addition, the forecast for carry-over stocks of wheat at the end of the current marketing year has been increased – from 4.24 million tons to 4.71 million tons compared to 5.84 million tons at its beginning.
According to the report, in general, the forecast for the feed grain harvest in Ukraine for 2022/23 MY was increased by 1.5 million tons – up to 38.96 million tons from 37.46 million tons, and its export – by 0.5 million tons, up to 14 .83 million tons from 14.33 million tons.
As reported, from the beginning of the 2022/2023 marketing year and until September 9, Ukraine exported 5.29 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, which is 1.94 times less than the previous marketing year. The country supplied to foreign markets 3.17 million tons of corn (2.37 times more than in the same period in 2021/2022 MY), 1.65 million tons of wheat (3.6 times less), 447 thousand tons of barley (6 .7 times less) and 15.6 thousand tons of flour (1.7 times less).
Seven more ships carrying corn and wheat left the ports of Ukraine on Tuesday, the Anadolu agency reports, citing the Turkish Defense Ministry.
The export of agricultural products from three Ukrainian ports continues under the agreement on the corridor for grain, concluded on July 22.
Earlier, the UN reported that the Joint Coordinating Center (JCC) allowed seven vessels with corn and wheat to leave the ports of Ukraine on Tuesday as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. According to the UN, the ships Captain Dimitrios (65 thousand tons of corn), Super Saka (29 thousand tons of wheat and 21 thousand tons of corn), Fanaria (18 thousand tons of wheat) will go to Spain. The ships Propus (8.5 thousand tons of corn), Ata Ocean (6.3 thousand tons of sunflower oil) and Greifswald (492 tons of corn) are planning to head to Turkey. In addition, the Yada Team ship will deliver 64,951 tons of corn to Israel.
In Istanbul on July 22, with the participation of the UN, Ukraine, Turkey and Russia, two documents were signed on the creation of a corridor for the export of grain from three Ukrainian ports: Chernomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny.
Prices for wheat from Ukraine for the period from August 26 to September 8 slightly increased against the backdrop of a gradual resumption of its exports by sea, corn quotes on the Ukrainian market are stable, according to the Telegram channel of the consulting company Barva Invest.
As, on September 8, quotations of wheat from Ukraine on the terms of delivery of CPT are estimated at 4.9-6.4 thousand UAH / ton, while on August 26 – 4.5-6.4 thousand UAH / ton, on August 11 – 4 3-6 thousand UAH/ton, and on August 4 – 3-5.5 thousand UAH/ton. The spot price of corn at the Chop checkpoint near Hungary for the period August 26-September 8 remained at $240/ton.
According to Barva Invest, the December futures of wheat from the Black Sea region Black Sea (BWFU2) as of September 8 decreased by 5.9% compared to August 26 – to $317.25/ton, however, on the European exchange Euronext (EBMU2) increased by 0.5%, up to EUR328.75/ton, and on the Chicago Stock Exchange (ZWU2) – by 9.8%, up to $8.44/bu.
Thus, wheat quotes for the reporting period were influenced in different directions by the rise in prices for other grain crops and the expectation of increased demand from importers against the backdrop of statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin criticizing the Istanbul grain agreements that allegedly the “grain corridor” from Ukraine is used to supply food to EU countries, not to poor third world countries.
“Wheat quotations reacted with active growth to another portion of demagoguery from Russia regarding the export of Ukrainian grain from Ukrainian ports within the grain corridor … (Putin – IF) said that he would consult with his henchmen and Turkey regarding the need to limit Ukraine’s export destinations,” the consulting company emphasized. company in the message.
The investment company clarified that by September 8, the December futures for corn from the Black Sea region (BWFU2) slightly decreased by 0.8% compared to August 26, to $310.75/ton, while on the Chicago Stock Exchange (ZCU2) it increased by 3 .2% to $6.71/bu.
Quotes of corn on the world market also changed in different directions, prices were influenced by the market’s expectation of a possible decrease in estimates of the American crop in the September report of the US Department of Agriculture, fears about the prospects for corn yields in the US and the EU due to record drought, concerns about the prospects for a global recession, as well as subsidence oil prices.
The key transactions with soft commodities were the purchase by Japan of 95 thousand tons of wheat (from the USA and Canada), Iraq – 100 thousand tons of wheat (from the USA), Jordan – 120 thousand tons of wheat, South Korea – 60 thousand tons of wheat and 206 thousand tons of corn. In addition, the Philippines announced a tender for the purchase of 100,000 tons of feed wheat, Japan for 70,000 tons of feed wheat, and South Korea for 55,000 tons of wheat.
As reported, in response to Putin’s criticism of the Istanbul grain agreements, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on September 8 that Ukrainian grain is being shipped to Asia, Africa and Europe. Prior to this, the President of the Russian Federation was outraged by the allegedly larger share of agricultural products that goes along the grain corridor from Ukraine to the EU, and not to poor third world countries.
According to Zelensky, 54 ships with agricultural products have already been sent to Asia, 16 to Africa, 32 to Europe. At the same time, part of the European supplies are subsequently redirected to Asian and African countries, the President specified.
On July 22, in Istanbul, with the participation of the UN, Ukraine, Turkey and Russia, two documents were signed on the creation of a corridor for the export of grain from three Ukrainian ports: Chornomorsk, Odessa, and Pivdenny.
As of September 6, the total tonnage of grain and other food products exported from three Ukrainian ports is, according to the UN, 2.213 million tons. In total, the movement of 204 vessels has been allowed at the moment – 108 arriving in Ukrainian ports and 96 leaving them.
A trial train of 21 wagons with 1.2 thousand tons of feed corn has arrived in the port of Rostock (Germany), and soon three more trains with corn from Ukraine will enter the country, according to the website of the German publication NRD.
According to him, the train with corn was on the road for about eight days, which included reloading agricultural products into narrow-gauge wagons at the Ukrainian-Polish border, after which DB Cargo delivered the cargo to Rostock, where agricultural products were reloaded into port granaries. The publication clarifies that last year’s corn crop is in good condition.
It is specified that BAT Agrar from Ratzeburg (Germany) is coordinating the arrival of trains. It is not yet known where the agricultural products that arrived at the port of Rostock will go next.
“Due to Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine, many export routes of local agriculture have become difficult or impossible. However, in accordance with the agreement, exports across the Black Sea have started again this month,” the publication recalled.
As reported, in April, the German concern Deutsche Bahn and its subsidiary logistics company DB Cargo began redirecting grain exports from Ukraine through the railway infrastructure instead of their traditional export through Ukrainian seaports, which were blocked by the Russian fleet at that time.
Michael Theurer, parliamentary secretary at the German Federal Ministry of Transport, said that Germany is obliged to ensure the shipment of 20 million tons of grain from Ukraine to prevent starvation on the planet.
