The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) left its forecast for corn production in Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year unchanged at 30 million metric tons in its July WASDE report.
The forecast for Ukrainian corn exports also remained unchanged at 23 million metric tons. According to the WASDE tables, the July estimate for Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year indicates production of 30 million metric tons, exports of 23 million metric tons, and ending stocks of 2.06 million metric tons.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, the USDA estimates Ukraine’s corn harvest at 30.9 million metric tons and exports at 23 million metric tons. Thus, compared to the current season, the new forecast suggests a slight decline in production but maintains export potential at the same level.
In its global corn balance sheet, the USDA lowered its production forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year to 1.297 billion metric tons in July, down from 1.300 billion metric tons a month earlier. The main decline is attributed to the European Union and Kenya, while the forecast for Ukraine remained unchanged.
Global corn exports for the 2026/27 marketing year, on the other hand, were raised to 209.88 million metric tons from 207.61 million metric tons in June. The USDA also lowered its forecast for global ending corn stocks to 275.26 million metric tons, down from 281.22 million metric tons in the June report.
The WASDE summary notes that foreign corn production has been reduced due to deteriorating prospects in the EU and Kenya. For the EU, the reduction is primarily due to the heatwave in France and a lower forecast for Hungary.
The Ukrainian corn forecast remains sensitive to weather conditions in the second half of the summer. Corn is more heavily dependent on precipitation and temperatures in July and August, so the actual harvest may differ significantly from the USDA’s current estimate.
Ukraine exported 21 million metric tons of corn during the 2025/2026 marketing year, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association.
Turkey was the largest buyer of Ukrainian corn, purchasing 6.5 million metric tons. It was followed by Italy (3.8 million metric tons), Spain (1.9 million metric tons), the Netherlands (1.7 million metric tons), and Israel (934,000 metric tons).
Total exports of grains and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year amounted to 41.1 million metric tons, which is 12% less than in the previous season.
In January–April of this year, Ukraine exported nearly 11 million tons of corn, which is 27.6% more than during the same period last year; in monetary terms, corn exports rose by 26.6% to $2.33 billion.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service, Turkey was the main buyer of Ukrainian corn during this period, as it was last year, and its share of total exports rose to 30.3% ($705.16 million) compared to 22% ($405.8 million) in January–April 2025.
Italy spent $363.3 million on Ukrainian corn—50.2% more than last year—and its share of total exports of this crop increased by nearly 2.5 percentage points to 15.6%.
Exports to Spain increased by 2.9% to $260 million, with its share of total exports decreasing by 2.6 percentage points to 11.18%.
Corn exports to all other countries totaled $1 billion—6.5% more than in the first four months of last year.
According to the State Customs Service, corn accounted for 16.75% of Ukraine’s total exports in January–April 2026, compared to 13.82% last year.
In April, Ukraine exported $574.7 million worth of corn—67.6% more than in the same month of 2025; specifically, shipments to Turkey increased by 55.7% to $213.2 million, to Italy by 2.7 times to nearly $76 million, and to Spain by 3.3 times—to $60.9 million.
At the same time, in January–April, Ukraine imported 11,000 tons of corn worth $65.1 million, mainly from France (43.6%), Hungary (16.4%), and Austria (14%), while last year it was 11,500 tons worth $61.9 million from the same countries.
According to statistics from the State Customs Service, in 2025 Ukraine exported 17.96 million tons of corn—39.4% less than in 2024—reducing revenue by 23% to $3.9 billion.
In its May report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its first forecast for wheat and corn exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2026 marketing year (MY) – 13 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively, which is 0.5 million tons and 1 million tons more than in the current MY.
According to USDA estimates, Ukraine’s wheat harvest in the next MY will decline to 23 million tons from 24.1 million tons last year, but ending stocks for the year will increase by only 0.9 million tons—to 4.53 million tons—while this year they are expected to rise by 2.9 million tons.
As for the corn harvest, USDA analysts forecast it at 30 million tons this year, compared to 30.9 million tons last year. The increase in exports is also expected to result from a decrease in ending stocks by 0.19 million tons, while this marketing year they are projected to increase by 1.91 million tons.
Taking other crops into account, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects this year’s forage grain harvest to decrease to 36.08 million tons from 37.22 million tons last year, but an increase in its exports next marketing year to 25.19 million tons from 24.30 million tons this marketing year, also due to carryover stocks accumulated this year.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy forecasts a grain harvest of approximately 60.4 million tons in 2026, which is only 1%, or 0.64 million tons, less than last year. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, the harvest of major crops may amount to: wheat – about 22.4 million tons, barley – about 4.7 million tons, and corn – about 31.6 million tons.
According to the State Statistics Service, the wheat harvest in 2025 increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million tons, corn by 14.6% to 30.9 million tons, while the barley harvest decreased by 2.4% to 5.2 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects this year’s wheat harvest to decrease to 819.06 million tons and its exports to 211.70 million tons, down from 843.84 million tons and 222.68 million tons, respectively, last year.
The USDA’s first forecast for global corn production this year is 1,295.38 million tons, with exports for the 2026/27 marketing year at 206.91 million tons, while last year’s harvest was 1,312.68 million tons, and exports for the 2025-26 marketing year are expected to reach 213.59 million tons.
According to its annual report, the Astarta agricultural holding achieved a gross harvest of grain and oilseed crops of approximately 0.6 million tons in 2025, matching the previous year’s result.
“Climate instability, logistical constraints, and rising costs prompted the Company to increase acreage for crops with predictable sales and stable economics, such as corn and sunflower. However, unfavorable weather put significant pressure on crops, reducing productivity,” the company’s report noted.
The holding revised its crop rotation structure in response to climatic and logistical factors. Corn acreage more than doubled—to 12,000 hectares—resulting in a harvest of 94,000 tons of grain (+134% compared to 2024), while sunflower production increased by 32%—to 61,000 tons.
The soybean harvest decreased by 27%—to 122,000 tons (including the 2026 harvest), and the rapeseed harvest by 23%—to 31,000 tons due to weather anomalies. The sugar beet harvest amounted to 1.8 million tons, which is only 2% less than the previous year thanks to a 12.2% increase in yield, which almost completely offset the 13% reduction in acreage. Wheat production fell by 9% to 237,000 tons amid a reduction in acreage and a slight decline in productivity.
Yields for the holding’s main crops generally exceeded the national average. The yield for corn was 7.6 t/ha compared to 7.2 t/ha nationwide, and for wheat, 5.2 t/ha compared to 4.5 t/ha. A gap was also recorded for sunflowers—2.1 t/ha versus 1.9 t/ha—and rapeseed—2.8 t/ha versus 2.7 t/ha—while sugar beet yields stood at 55 t/ha.
In 2026, Astarta plans to expand its corn acreage by 66%, to 20,000 ha, and increase winter rapeseed acreage by 36%, to 15,000 ha, compared to last year. A reduction in acreage is expected for sunflowers by 20% to 23,000 ha, wheat by 15% to 39,000 ha, and sugar beets by 6% to 32,000 ha. The area under soybeans will remain stable at 56,000 hectares, which is 1.7 times less than the peak figure of 70,000 hectares in 2024.
“The condition of winter crops is generally satisfactory, as the insulating snow cover protects the plants from severe cold. Significant moisture reserves also create the potential for higher yields of spring crops,“ the agricultural holding noted.
”Astarta” is a vertically integrated agro-industrial holding operating in seven regions of Ukraine and is the country’s largest sugar producer. The company’s portfolio includes five sugar refineries, agricultural enterprises with a land bank of 214,000 hectares (including 129,000 hectares in Poltava, 42,000 hectares in Khmelnytskyi, and 16,000 hectares in Vinnytsia regions) and dairy farms with 30,000 head of cattle. The holding also operates a soybean processing plant and a bioenergy complex in Poltava Oblast, as well as a network of six grain elevators.
Astarta’s net profit for 2025 fell 4.2-fold to $19.94 million, while consolidated revenue decreased by 23% to $472 million. The agriholding’s EBITDA fell by 37% to $100 million, with a margin of 21%. The company’s net debt doubled over the past year and stood at $226 million at the end of the period.
Nibulon Joint Venture LLC (Mykolaiv), one of Ukraine’s leading grain market operators, has sown about 20% of the planned acreage in each of its production clusters as part of the current spring planting campaign, the company’s press service reported.
According to the report, the agricultural holding is implementing an adaptive management model that involves moving away from standardized solutions in favor of regional planning based on weather and soil conditions. In particular, the start of work in the Cherkasy and Kamianets-Podilskyi clusters has been postponed until the soil warms up sufficiently.
Corn remains Nibulon’s key crop for the 2026 season, with approximately 28,500 hectares allocated for it. The company plans to complete corn planting within each division within 10–12 days. Soybeans will occupy nearly 3,000 hectares, with plantings concentrated primarily in the central and western regions.
The most significant changes have occurred in the crop structure of the Mykolaiv cluster. Due to the prolonged lack of rainfall and high climatic risks in the south, the company has completely abandoned spring crops in this region, relying exclusively on winter crops with a short growing season. This will allow for more efficient use of winter moisture and reduce dependence on spring and summer rainfall.
Before the war, Nibulon cultivated 82,000 hectares of land across 12 regions of Ukraine and exported agricultural products to over 70 countries worldwide. In 2021, the grain trader exported a record 5.64 million tons of agricultural products. After the war began, the company was forced to relocate its headquarters from Mykolaiv to Kyiv. In addition to 23 grain storage complexes, Nibulon has its own road and rail transport capabilities, as well as a fleet built at its own shipyard. During wartime, this fleet continues to carry out river transport operations.
The company is also actively developing its own humanitarian demining unit to restore safety on leased lands and assist Ukraine’s agricultural sector. Nibulon is a certified mine action operator.
