In its May report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its first forecast for wheat and corn exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2026 marketing year (MY) – 13 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively, which is 0.5 million tons and 1 million tons more than in the current MY.
According to USDA estimates, Ukraine’s wheat harvest in the next MY will decline to 23 million tons from 24.1 million tons last year, but ending stocks for the year will increase by only 0.9 million tons—to 4.53 million tons—while this year they are expected to rise by 2.9 million tons.
As for the corn harvest, USDA analysts forecast it at 30 million tons this year, compared to 30.9 million tons last year. The increase in exports is also expected to result from a decrease in ending stocks by 0.19 million tons, while this marketing year they are projected to increase by 1.91 million tons.
Taking other crops into account, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects this year’s forage grain harvest to decrease to 36.08 million tons from 37.22 million tons last year, but an increase in its exports next marketing year to 25.19 million tons from 24.30 million tons this marketing year, also due to carryover stocks accumulated this year.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy forecasts a grain harvest of approximately 60.4 million tons in 2026, which is only 1%, or 0.64 million tons, less than last year. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, the harvest of major crops may amount to: wheat – about 22.4 million tons, barley – about 4.7 million tons, and corn – about 31.6 million tons.
According to the State Statistics Service, the wheat harvest in 2025 increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million tons, corn by 14.6% to 30.9 million tons, while the barley harvest decreased by 2.4% to 5.2 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects this year’s wheat harvest to decrease to 819.06 million tons and its exports to 211.70 million tons, down from 843.84 million tons and 222.68 million tons, respectively, last year.
The USDA’s first forecast for global corn production this year is 1,295.38 million tons, with exports for the 2026/27 marketing year at 206.91 million tons, while last year’s harvest was 1,312.68 million tons, and exports for the 2025-26 marketing year are expected to reach 213.59 million tons.
