“To ensure sustainable operations in 2026, Ukrzaliznytsia (UZ) must cover a liquidity deficit of around UAH 48.8 billion, excluding the repayment of Eurobonds, whose debt is to be restructured,” said CEO Oleksandr Pertsovsky on Friday during a presentation on passenger transport financing and the model for launching the UZ-3000 program.
“We have chosen the most balanced model to cover this deficit: part of it will be provided by our internal optimization, part by tariff decisions, and the third part by state support for passenger transport. There are no other realistic ways to get through these years in the context of the war,” he emphasized.
According to him, the amount of state co-financing for passenger transport will amount to up to UAH 13 billion in 2025 and will increase to more than UAH 16 billion in 2026.
According to Pertsovsky, operating losses in passenger transport total UAH 24 billion per year (UAH 13 billion for long-distance transport and UAH 11 billion for local transport), and while it was previously possible to offset these losses at the expense of profits in freight transport, this is impossible during the war.
According to the presentation, the expected loss in the passenger transport segment will increase from UAH 18.1 billion last year to UAH 18.6 billion this year, UAH 21.9 billion next year, and UAH 24.4 billion in 2027.
Suburban transport is expected to lose UAH 10.9 billion next year, domestic transport UAH 13.4 billion, and only international passenger transport will be profitable, with UAH 2.4 billion.
At the same time, UZ forecasts that profits from freight transport will decline from UAH 20.4 billion last year to UAH 3.2 billion this year, with a loss of UAH 0.6 billion next year, increasing to UAH 4.8 billion in 2027.
The reasons for this change in the profitability of freight transport are a reduction in volume (coal – by 4 million tons, grain – by 9 million tons after the artificial peak in 2024) and a reduction in transport distances, resulting in a loss of UAH 14.5 billion in freight revenue, as well as rising costs (personnel, electricity, financial costs) with frozen tariffs, which means an additional UAH 2.7 billion in expenses.
According to the presentation, the projected net loss for next year is UAH 28.64 billion.
In addition, the company expects UAH 25.4 billion in critical restructuring costs with depreciation of UAH 15.9 billion, UAH 6.4 billion in interest payments on Eurobonds, and UAH 4.2 billion in repayments of EBRD and EIB loans, which together result in a liquidity deficit of UAH 48 billion, according to the presentation.
As part of its own optimization, UZ has proposed an economic effect of almost UAH 17 billion in 2026, of which UAH 6.7 billion has already been taken into account in the draft financial plan. A further UAH 10.2 billion is to be achieved by reducing administrative costs, transferring non-core assets, cooperating with the freight market, and increasing its own revenues.
According to the presentation, the optimization measures include the elimination of 69 of the most unprofitable suburban routes (up to 5,000 per day), the indexation of unregulated elements (commissions, services), and flexible dynamic pricing for individual segments, which are expected to generate a total of UAH 6.9 billion.
In addition, there are plans to optimize the workforce by 8,300 employees, merge regional railways, and optimize up to 1,200 km (less than 5%) of the network with no or minimal traffic (1-2 suburban pairs).
Energy efficiency measures also include operating during intervals with the lowest fares, doubling rental income (+UAH 100 million), the sale of surplus and non-core assets, the sale of scrap metal (over 370,000 tons, which is more than UZ has sold in the last 5 years and secures the company a 28% share of the scrap market), and reducing repairs to passenger cars, regional trains, and infrastructure.
Ukrzaliznytsia points out that the financing model for passenger transport is in line with the European practice of public service obligation (PSO), whereby the state covers the difference between economically justified costs and tariffs.
Earlier this week, Serhiy Leshchenko, deputy chairman of the UZ supervisory board, told the Verkhovna Rada that the company’s net loss for the first nine months of this year amounted to UAH 7.195 billion.
According to him, UZ proposes to index freight tariffs by 27.5% from January 1 next year and by another 11% from July 1.
In January-June 2025, UZ’s export traffic decreased by 13.5% to 38.7 million tons, domestic traffic decreased by 11.7% to 35.5 million tons, while import traffic increased by 5.4% to 5.3 million tons.
Passenger traffic increased by 1.2% to 13.52 million in the first half of 2025.
In 2024, UZ increased its revenue by 11.1% to UAH 102.87 billion, but reported a net loss of UAH 2.71 billion, compared to a net profit of UAH 5.04 billion in 2023.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its estimate of the electricity deficit in Ukraine this year from 4% to 3% and next year from 2% to 1% due to rapid repairs and development of distributed generation.
“Rapid repairs of shunting generation and energy infrastructure, development of distributed electricity generation and renewable energy capacities against the background of maintaining sustainable electricity imports allow us to improve the estimate of the electricity deficit over the forecast horizon,” the NBU states in its April 2025 Inflation Report, comparing it with the January report.
According to the NBU, the deficit will almost disappear in 2027 (1%).
Thus, according to the report, the impact of energy supply restrictions on real GDP will decrease, and annual electricity imports in 2025-2027 will amount to about $0.5 billion.
As reported, at the end of 2024, the Ministry of Energy reported that the total capacity of distributed gas-fired generation units connected in Ukraine last year amounted to 967 MW, of which 835 MW were commissioned in 2024.
The state budget deficit of Ukraine in December 2023 amounted to a record UAH 285 billion, compared to UAH 145.1 billion in November and UAH 98.4 billion in October, according to the State Treasury. It specified that the general fund deficit jumped to UAH 274.4 billion from UAH 162.5 billion in November and UAH 87.7 billion in October. The Ministry of Finance noted that the cash expenditures of the state budget in December also became a record and exceeded UAH 548.2 billion compared to UAH 337.9 billion in November and UAH 292.1 billion in October.
The general fund expenditures increased to UAH 397.7 billion from UAH 286.3 billion in November and UAH 228.1 billion in October.
According to the Ministry of Finance, in December 2023, revenues to the general fund of the state budget increased slightly to UAH 127.1 billion from UAH 121.7 billion in November, which is, however, less than UAH 139.4 billion in October, while US grant international assistance amounted to UAH 20.5 billion, while in November it was not, and in October it amounted to UAH 42 billion.
In total, in 2023, state budget revenues amounted to UAH 2.67 trillion, including UAH 1.66 trillion from the general fund, of which UAH 425.4 billion was international grant aid (the US – UAH 400.5 billion).
Last year’s cash expenditures of the state budget exceeded UAH 4 trillion, including UAH 3.03 trillion from the general fund, or 98% of the plan, compared to 93% a month earlier.
According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2023, the state budget was executed with a deficit of UAH 1.33 trillion, including a deficit of UAH 1.36 trillion in the general fund against the deficit of UAH 1.83 trillion planned in the general fund plan.
In 2022, the state budget was executed with a deficit of UAH 911.1 billion, including UAH 909.5 billion in the general fund, including UAH 99 billion and UAH 101.3 billion in December, respectively, and in pre-war 2021, the deficit of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine was equal to UAH 166.8 billion.
State budget expenditures in 2022 amounted to UAH 2.70 trillion, including UAH 2.41 trillion for the general fund, which was 91.7% higher than in 2021. In December 2022, cash budget expenditures amounted to UAH 408.8 billion, including UAH 330.5 billion for the general fund.
The general fund of the state budget in 2022 received UAH 1.491 trillion, of which grant funding amounted to UAH 480.6 billion, while in 2021 revenues amounted to UAH 1.084 trillion. In December 2022, the general fund revenues amounted to UAH 229.2 billion, of which UAH 138.4 billion was grant aid.
As reported, on October 6, the Verkhovna Rada approved the next amendments to the state budget for 2023, mainly to increase spending on the security and defense sector. The new amount of state budget expenditures amounted to UAH 3 trillion 393.0 billion, including UAH 3 trillion 94.5 billion for the general fund, while revenues amounted to UAH 1 trillion 416.4 billion, including UAH 1 trillion 253.9 billion for the general fund. The limit for the deficit was set at UAH 2 trillion 10.35 billion, including UAH 1 trillion 834.6 billion for the general fund.
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In 2023, Ukraine attracted $42 billion in external financing to cover budgetary needs and a record amount of borrowing in the domestic market, Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko said.
“This made it possible to finance all the necessary expenditures, first of all for the security and defense forces…,” he said at the Business Breakfeast with Volodymyr Fedorin on Wednesday.
The minister expressed hope that revenue targets would be met, although he said that in the case of customs it was “less likely.”
Marchenko noted that Ukraine has fulfilled its obligations under the Extended Fund Facility program with the IMF and EU macro-financial assistance.
In general, he stated that the implementation of the 2023 state budget seemed much calmer.
“Now we are less worried about 2025 than about 2024,” the Minister of Finance said when asked about the forecast for the next year’s budget plans.
He emphasized that it is necessary to stay in the program with the IMF and to achieve the opening of the Ukraine Facility from the European Union, which will solve the problem of 2025, which is associated with great uncertainty, in particular due to elections in partner countries, by 50%.
According to Marchenko, Ukraine should take steps to reduce its dependence on external partners.
“The key is the coherence of the government team’s actions in the broad sense of the word,” he said.
As reported earlier, Marchenko indicated that Ukraine’s need for external financing in 2024 was reduced from the initial $41 billion to $37.3 billion due to measures to maximize state budget revenues, activate the domestic debt market, and reduce all capital expenditures of the state budget.
In 2022, Ukraine attracted $32.1 billion in external financing.
Foreign aid as of February 15 accounted for 68.8% of sources of financing of the state budget deficit since the beginning of this year, Roksolana Pidlasa, head of the Verkhovna Rada Budget Committee, told Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Friday.
“If we compare with last year, we see an increase in the share of foreign aid in the sources of financing. This is primarily due to the fact that, unlike last year, the National Bank does not redeem government bonds, therefore, emission funds are not attracted to cover the state budget deficit, “- said the head of the Committee.
Pidlasa specified that the state budget has already received UAH 171.9 billion from international partners. The biggest share is constituted by the macro-financial credit aid from the EU (EUR 3 billion) and grant aid from the USA ($1 billion).
“At the same time, the government continues to issue war bonds – debt obligations, which constitute about 31% of all sources of budget financing,” the MP added.
As reported, the state budget deficit of Ukraine in January 2023 due to a significant reduction in spending decreased to 72.3 billion UAH from 99 billion UAH in December, including for the general fund – to 78.9 billion UAH from 101.3 billion UAH.
Cash expenditures of state budget, according to operational data of State Treasury, in January fell to 193.7 billion UAH, including the general fund – to 183.6 billion UAH, or 80.6% of the estimates, while the general fund revenues amounted to 104.4 billion UAH, of which 36.6 billion UAH – grant international aid.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the actual state borrowings to the general fund of the state budget in January 2023 amounted to UAH 160.1 billion, or 54.7% of the plan, including UAH 41.4 billion from placement of government bonds, of which UAH 2.6 billion in foreign currency ($40.2 million and EUR29.4 million).
EUR 3 bln were financed from external sources due to the EU tranche of macrofinancial aid.
The state budget of Ukraine for 2023 was approved with a marginal deficit of UAH 1296.5 billion, including the general fund deficit of UAH 1124.6 billion.
Ukraine’s foreign trade deficit in goods in January-November 2022 increased 2.3 times compared to the same period in 2021, to $8.524 billion from $3.635 billion, the State Statistics Service said.
According to them, exports from Ukraine during this period compared to January-November 2021 decreased by 33.6% to $40.671 billion, imports – by 24.2% to $49.195 billion.
The State Statistics Committee specifies that seasonally adjusted exports decreased by 2.6% to $3.507 billion in November compared to October, while imports increased by 2.0% to $4.827 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in November-2022 was negative at $1.319 billion, while in October-2022 it was also negative at $1.129 billion.
The coverage ratio of imports by exports in January-November 2022 was 0.83 (0.94 in January-November 2021).
The State Statistics Committee specified that foreign trade transactions were conducted with partners from 230 countries.
