Turkey’s decision to open an import quota for 3 million tons of corn with a reduced tariff rate of 5% has significantly altered market conditions, according to the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
“This move is expected to stabilize domestic prices in Turkey and meet high demand. The country’s domestic balance dictates the need for active imports: domestic production amounts to about 8 million tons, while consumption exceeds 10 million tons,” analysts noted.
According to the agency, Ankara’s customs policy remains strict: a 130% tariff applies outside the quota. However, the market is adapting thanks to temporary preferential regimes. Under these conditions, Ukraine is strengthening its presence and already accounts for 85–87% of Turkish imports due to significant supply and favorable logistics.
“Currently, the key competitive factor is the speed of shipments and traders’ willingness to assemble flexible shipments. Market dynamics are driven by raw material shortages within the importing country and the efficiency of logistics chains,” emphasized UkrAgroConsult.
Among the main trends, experts highlighted the transformation of demand due to quotas and the dominance of regional suppliers amid shortages. The agency forecasts that Ukraine will maintain its status as Turkey’s key partner precisely due to the speed of deliveries, despite protective tariffs on non-quota volumes.
The introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed will reduce the profitability of these crops, leading to a 30% reduction in soybean acreage in 2026, experts from the American Chamber of Commerce (ACC) reported during a press briefing in Kyiv.
“Our forecasts indicate a possible 30% reduction in soybean acreage compared to the previous season. The export duty acts as an economic barrier, making the cultivation of this crop less attractive to producers. Farmers won’t take losses every year—if the financial result is negative, they’ll simply change their crop mix,” the experts explained.
The business association noted that under normal conditions, corn could be an alternative, but currently its investment appeal is also in question due to rising production costs.
“Prices for fuel and fertilizers have risen significantly, particularly due to the escalation of the situation surrounding Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This significantly increases farmers’ costs for growing corn, which, combined with the low profitability of oilseeds due to tariffs (on soybeans and rapeseed – IF-U), puts farmers in a difficult position ahead of the spring planting season,” the briefing participants emphasized.
Experts expressed confidence that if regulatory policy does not change, there is a risk that farmers will abandon rapeseed and soybean cultivation in the long term. This will lead to domestic processors, who lobbied for the introduction of tariffs to obtain cheap raw materials, eventually facing a physical shortage of those materials due to reduced production.
As reported, pursuant to Law No. 4536-IX of July 16, 2025, a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans was introduced in Ukraine effective September 4, 2025. The document provides for a gradual reduction of the rate by 1% annually, starting January 1, 2030, to 5% by 2035. At the same time, the law includes a preferential regime for direct producers and cooperatives, who are exempt from paying the duty when exporting their own-grown products.
The introduction of export duties on rapeseed and soybeans last September caused a redistribution of income from agricultural producers to processors, resulting in total losses for farmers of approximately $200 million, the American Chamber of Commerce (ACC) reported during a press briefing in Kyiv on Wednesday.
According to published data, due to a 7% drop in domestic prices relative to global markets, Ukrainian farmers lost $130 million in profits. Small and medium-sized producers, who are unable to export their products independently, were hit the hardest. An additional $50 million was collected from farmers and exporters in the form of duties paid to the state budget.
“The export duty that was introduced is effectively a redistribution of income among producers in favor of processors. Instead of stimulating processing, we have ended up with a mechanism to cover the losses of the processing industry at the expense of crop production,” the ACC noted.
Representatives of the business association emphasized that in the six months since the law took effect, not a single new processing facility has been declared or built in Ukraine. At the same time, existing capacity of 23 million tons already exceeds the total oilseed production volume, which stands at about 20 million tons.
According to ACC estimates, Ukraine’s foreign exchange earnings from oilseed exports during this period decreased by $1 billion. Specifically, revenue from rapeseed exports fell by $700 million (with partial compensation from increased exports of oil and meal, the net loss amounts to $400 million – IF-U). For soybeans, the decline is estimated at $240 million, and for sunflowers, at $345 million.
Experts argue that the arguments of the bill’s initiators regarding the successful experience with sunflower seed tariffs were flawed due to the different physical nature of the crops. As a light product, sunflower seeds are more profitable to process locally, whereas rapeseed and soybeans are heavy crops that are more practical to transport by large vessels to consumption centers. The ACC also highlighted the negative legislative precedent, as protests from leading industry associations—including the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC) and the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC)—were ignored during the law’s adoption. Furthermore, this decision has strained relations with European partners and contradicts the processes of European integration.
For his part, Oleg Nivievsky, a professor at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), noted that the total losses incurred by agricultural producers due to the law over a full marketing year could amount to approximately 17 billion UAH. According to his calculations, the rapeseed duty will generate 6.2 billion UAH for the budget but will result in net economic losses of 80–170 million UAH due to reduced farmer incomes. The situation is even worse for soybeans: with budget revenues of 4.1–4.7 billion UAH, farmers will lose 9.1–9.3 billion UAH, resulting in net losses for the country of 200–500 million UAH.
“This is a bad signal for the market, indicating that processing is uncompetitive without state subsidies. A similar logic of ‘utilizing capacity’ is already being applied to the export of scrap metal and timber, which sets an extremely negative precedent,” emphasized Nivievsky, adding that the state’s total economic losses from duties on both crops could reach 280–670 million UAH.
As reported, pursuant to Law No. 4536-IX of July 16, 2025, a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans was introduced in Ukraine effective September 4, 2025. The document provides for a gradual reduction of the rate by 1% annually, starting January 1, 2030, to 5% by 2035. At the same time, the law includes a preferential regime for direct producers and cooperatives, who are exempt from paying the duty when exporting their own-grown products.
US President Donald Trump announced an increase in previously imposed universal import duties from 10% to 15% on goods supplied to the United States from all countries of the world.
The head of state made the announcement during a speech on trade policy and the protection of national industry. According to him, the decision is aimed at reducing the trade deficit, stimulating domestic production, and bringing jobs back to the American economy.
As Trump noted, the tariff increase will be part of a broader strategy of economic protectionism, which includes revising the terms of international trade and strengthening support for American manufacturers. The administration expects that the new measures will increase the competitiveness of domestically produced goods.
Economists warn that the increase in duties could lead to higher prices for imported goods in the US, as well as retaliatory measures from trading partners. Analysts do not rule out increased tension in world trade and additional pressure on global supply chains.
The new tariff rates are expected to come into effect after the necessary administrative procedures have been completed. Business representatives have already expressed concern about the possible increase in the cost of raw materials and components used by American companies.
Earlier, the US administration introduced a base import duty rate of 10%, explaining this by the need to protect the national economy and reduce dependence on foreign supplies.
According to Serbian Economist, the authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina are considering the introduction of a temporary duty of 30% on imports of steel and steel products for a period of 200 days. The proposal was prepared by the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations at the request of Nova Željezara Zenica, the final decision after public consultations should be made by the Council of Ministers of BiH.
The initiative is explained by a sharp increase in the supply of certain categories of metal products. According to the Ministry, in 2025, imports of reinforcement mesh in BiH increased by 192.87% compared to the average of the previous four years, with Serbia being the largest supplier, with more than 9,000 tons, which is 408% higher than the 2021-2024 average. In second place was Italy (7,794 tons, about double the previous level).
Separately, the dynamics of imports from Turkey are pointed out: the supply of rebar in coils in 2025 increased by 885% relative to the four-year average, while imports of bars increased by 229.56%. The ministry believes that this creates pressure from foreign producers and leads to underutilization of local capacity.
In an explanation of the initiative, the ministry notes the risk of increased dependence of the construction sector on imports and warns of possible consequences, including job cuts, lower budget revenues, falling investment and higher prices on the domestic market.
The decision is being discussed against the backdrop of Serbia’s recent protective measures: as of January 1, 2026, Belgrade introduced a temporary import quota scheme for a number of iron and steel products (as well as Portland cement) with an additional duty of 50% on shipments above the quotas.
Nova Željezara Zenica itself, acquired last year by H&P Zvornik (Pavgord Group), had previously initiated bankruptcy proceedings against the company, explaining that it had been insolvent for a long time.
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The Cabinet of Ministers has adopted a resolution introducing a mechanism for monitoring soybean and rapeseed exports, according to the press service of the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture.
“We are introducing a transparent mechanism that allows producers, rather than intermediaries, to be exempt from export duties. The funds that the state will receive from traders’ duties will replenish a special budget fund and will be directed to programs to support frontline territories, where farmers work in the most difficult conditions, grants for processing, greenhouses, orchards, and insurance against military risks,” said Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture Taras Vysotsky, whose words are quoted in a statement on the ministry’s website.
The Ministry of Economy noted that the document aims to ensure the fair application of export duty exemptions for certain categories of agricultural producers.
The new procedure establishes a monthly monitoring mechanism to be implemented by the Ministry of Economy to verify the compliance of exported product volumes with the data contained in the State Agrarian Register (SAR) regarding the actual products grown. If discrepancies are found between the declared and actual volumes grown, the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry is obliged to cancel the expert conclusions.
“The introduction of such a mechanism ensures that only those exporters who have actually grown the products themselves will benefit from the exemption from export duties,” the ministry added.
The resolution ensures transparent and fair administration of the export duty exemption, prevents abuse during the export of soybeans and rapeseed, provides equal and fair conditions of competition for agricultural producers, and ensures state support for farmers, as only traders, not producers, will pay the duty, the statement said.
The government’s decision is expected to strengthen state control, ensure targeted budget revenues, and contribute to the stability of the agricultural sector. Monitoring will make it possible to simultaneously support conscientious producers and guarantee the replenishment of a special fund for the implementation of key agricultural development programs.
As reported, in September 2025, a law was passed introducing a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed. Agricultural producers and cooperatives that export their own products are exempt from paying the duty. The duty is paid by traders and other exporters who are not producers. The mechanism is aimed at supporting farmers, stimulating domestic processing, and filling a special state budget fund to finance agricultural programs.
