According to Ukrainians, the countries of the Arab world are neutral in the Russian-Ukrainian war. This was revealed by a joint study by Active Group and the Experts Club think tank, “Attitudes of Ukrainians toward the Middle East and Central Asia,” which was presented at Interfax-Ukraine on Tuesday.
“The analysis includes a predominantly positive attitude of our citizens towards such countries as Israel (72.5%) and Turkey (55%), while the attitude towards other countries in the region is mostly neutral. Ukrainians are extremely negative about Iran (76%) and mostly negative about Afghanistan (52.6%),” said Oleksandr Poznyi, director of the research company Active Group.
In addition, the expert added that Ukrainians are mostly positive about countries with which they have trade or cultural ties. This is natural, as such ties promote mutual respect between societies and countries.
In his turn, Andriy Yeremenko, founder of the research company Active Group, emphasized that the attitude of Ukrainians towards the Middle East and Central Asia varies depending on many factors.
“We can see that the attitude of citizens is really certain only in relation to two countries – Iran and Israel. These are the countries where the percentage of those who find it difficult to answer is less than 20%. The rest of the countries have a much higher percentage of uncertainty, which indicates that Ukrainians are not well informed about these countries,” emphasized Eremenko.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, added that building cooperation with the Middle East and Central Asia is very important for the development of the Ukrainian economy, especially in the agricultural and IT sectors. These industries have great potential for development and can become the basis for a mutually beneficial partnership.
“It is necessary to implement a state strategy to reduce the trade deficit and increase Ukraine’s export potential. This will create a more balanced and sustainable economy that will be less dependent on external factors. Ukraine may be interested in agricultural products, IT clusters, and educational services. We are interested in sales markets, agricultural technologies, metallurgy, and chemistry,” Urakin emphasized.
According to him, trade between Ukraine and the countries under study is currently growing rapidly.
“Turkey is the largest trading partner among the countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, accounting for more than half of all trade with these countries. This shows the importance of Turkey for the Ukrainian economy,” the founder of Experts Club added.
According to Urakin, a balanced foreign economic policy in the region can not only significantly improve Ukraine’s relations with Middle Eastern countries, but also have a positive impact on the overall state of the economy.
The results of the study are available here.
ACTIVE GROUP, ALEXANDER POZNIY, ANDREY EREMENKO, CENTRAL_ASIA, ECONOMICS, EXPERTS CLUB, MAXIM URAKIN, MIDDLE_EAST, POLL, SOCIOLOGY
The YouTube channel “Experts Club” has published a new video in which the founder of this think tank, Maksym Urakin, provides his analysis of Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators and the state of the global economy in the first half of 2023.
Demographic indicators of Ukraine
Speaking about the demographic factor in the development of the Ukrainian economy, the expert cited data from the Opendatabot portal, which shows that the birth rate in the country continues to decline. According to these data, about 97 thousand children were born in the first half of 2023, which is 28% less than in the same period of 2021.
“The birth rate has been declining by about 7% annually since 2013. However, the full-scale war has aggravated the situation, causing the largest crisis in natural population growth. The demography of our country continues to be under pressure due to the current circumstances,” said Maksym Urakin.
According to him, in the first half of 2023, the number of marriages fell by 17% compared to the same period last year, while the number of divorces increased by a third, especially in Kyiv.
Economic recovery
Turning to the macroeconomic sphere, the economist emphasized that the Ukrainian economy has started to show signs of recovery.
“According to the NBU, Ukraine’s economy grew by 18.3% in the second quarter relative to the same period last year. This growth is relative to the period of the greatest decline at the beginning of the war.”, – said the founder of the club of experts.
Nevertheless, Maxim Urakin expressed concerns about the long-term outlook.
“Despite the current positive trend, the main risk for the Ukrainian economy continues to be related to the duration and intensity of the war. This may complicate the recovery, as well as cause problems with inflation and currency exchange rate,” Urakin noted.
According to him, the main negative factors affecting economic activity are a decrease or instability of international aid, as well as possible further destruction of energy infrastructure and problems with electricity supply in the fall and winter period.
Analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade
Maxim Urakin also drew attention to the factor of growth of the negative balance of foreign trade, which has been noted since the beginning of the war.
“The country’s negative foreign trade balance continues to grow, reaching $9 billion in the first five months of this year, according to Gosstat estimates. This suggests that Ukraine is spending more currency on importing goods than it earns from exporting them. We see a sharp drop in exports of mineral products by 39.3%, ferrous and non-ferrous metals by 21.4%, wood and wood products by 17.7%, machinery products by 18.2%, chemical industry by 21.4% and other industrial goods by 4.1%,” – said the candidate of economic sciences.
However, not all the news in this sphere was pessimistic. Urakin emphasized the growth of food exports by 9.9%, which indicates the potential of the Ukrainian agro-industrial complex, which will probably become one of the main drivers of the country’s economic recovery in the coming years.
As for the balance of foreign trade in services, although still negative, the pace of its reduction gave some grounds for optimism.
“We see that the deficit of foreign trade in services is shrinking, which may indicate a gradual recovery of some service sectors in Ukraine,” the expert concluded.
Ukraine’s financial situation in 2023
However, equally important aspects of the economy, according to the expert, are government debt, international reserves and inflation.
“The country’s public debt continues to increase its volume. By the middle of 2023 he Ukraine approached the mark of 140 billion dollars. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its forecasts on the level of the country’s public debt, reducing it from 98.3% of GDP to 88.1% of GDP. Despite this ‘positive’ realistic revision, this level of debt represents a significant burden for the national economy,” Maxim Urakin said.
The main source of financing of Ukraine’s budget, according to the expert, is still related to foreign aid.
“Half of the budget is financed by taxes and fees, while the rest comes from international grants and loans,” he emphasized.
Nevertheless, the country’s international reserves have shown positive dynamics.
“By August this year, Ukraine’s international reserves reached a record $41.72bn, which is 6.9% higher than the previous record. This increase is probably the result of active external financial support,” the analyst said.
As for inflation, it showed a slowdown. “After a record 27% inflation in 2022, this indicator fell to close to 4% in July this year,” Urakin noted.
Thus, the economic situation in Ukraine, according to the founder of the “Experts Club”, continues to be complex and multifaceted, requiring careful monitoring and adaptation of strategies in response to changing conditions.
World economy in 2023: analysis and forecasts
In the last presented studies of the “Experts Club” the economic situation in Ukraine was actively considered, however, according to Maxim Urakin, the dynamics of the world economy also has a significant impact on our country. According to the latest data, the world economy shows stable signs of growth, but there are also certain risks.
“The IMF has recently provided its forecasts for global economic growth. A growth of 3% is forecast for 2023 and the same is expected in 2024. The decisions taken by the US to resolve issues related to the level of public debt, as well as active actions in the US and Swiss banking sectors, have helped to reduce the immediate risks of a crisis in the global financial market. However, as the IMF emphasized, “the balance of risks remains tilted towards a possible deterioration of the economic situation at the global level,” the economist explained.
Inflation continues to be in the center of experts’ attention. Although the IMF lowered its inflation forecast for the current year to 6.8%, expectations for 2024 were adjusted upward.
Based on this information, Maxim Urakin concludes that the global economy is on the way to stabilization, but the situation remains ambiguous due to a number of uncertain factors. It is important for countries and their economies interacting in the global market to monitor changes and prepare for possible challenges.
Economic development in individual countries
According to the founder of the “Experts Club”, the global economy in 2023 is showing mixed results. While some countries are overcoming the effects of the pandemic and are on the path to stable growth, others are facing challenges from internal and external factors.
“The U.S. economy exceeded expectations, posting above-forecast growth. Meanwhile, consumer spending and government spending also showed solid growth, but residential investment continues to decline. China, which is on the road to recovery from the pandemic, showed strong economic growth, although the construction industry continues to experience a crisis. The Eurozone has shown moderate growth, with the region’s largest economy, Germany, facing recession. At the same time, the UK and Japan have positive adjustments to their GDP forecasts. India continues to strengthen its economic position, showing dynamic growth. Meanwhile, Brazil, although showing growth in the current year, expects a decline by 2024,” summarized the expert.
For more details on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link:
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ECONOMICS, EXPERTS CLUB, MACROECONOMICS, REVIEW_OF_ECONOMICS, URAKIN, WORLD_ECONOMY
Kiev analytical center “Club of Experts” on its YouTube channel presented another video overview of the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and in the world.
In the new edition, the founder of the “Club of Experts”, Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, noted that since official data on the population of Ukraine is not available now because of the ongoing war, the UN estimates as of June 2023 (43.3 million people) are not completely correct.
“These estimates cannot be sufficiently accurate given the availability of other data sources, such as the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, which in its most recent study estimates the available population at 29 million inhabitants. This reflects a significant population decline of nearly 9 million over the past year, caused by the mass exodus of citizens out of the country after the war began,” Urakin noted.
Despite these challenges, the outlook for Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) can be considered encouraging.
“The GDP decline in the first quarter of 2023 was down from the same period last year at 13.5%. But we foresee an overall positive trend, given the forecast of the NBU, which expects economic recovery starting from the second quarter of 2023,” said the expert.
With the increase in the negative foreign trade balance of Ukraine, it is clear that the country faces new challenges.
“In January-April 2023 the negative balance of foreign trade in goods of Ukraine increased 40 times in comparison with the same period of 2022 – up to $ 7.04 billion. This means that the cost of Ukraine to purchase the necessary goods by $ 7 billion exceeded the income from export of Ukrainian goods, “- said Urakin.
The world economy continues to show strong signs of recovery from the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, GDP growth rates of the leading countries differ markedly.
“In the U.S., the economy is showing moderate growth of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2023, up 0.2% from what was previously reported. In China, meanwhile, GDP grew 2.2% in the first quarter of 2023, more than expected, thanks to a rebound in exports and consumer spending. The volume of China’s digital economy in 2022 also increased significantly – by 10.3% to 50.2 trillion yuan ($7.25 trillion), indicating the increasing role of the digital economy in the country’s overall economic growth,” said Maxim Urakin.
The expert stressed that despite different levels of growth, it is clear that the economies of different countries are still struggling due to the effects of the pandemic and global uncertainty. However, they continue to adapt and strengthen, as evidenced by this latest data.
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Top managers of the largest Wall Street banks in recent days gave more optimistic assessments of the prospects for the U.S. economy compared with previous forecasts, writes the Financial Times.
In particular, bankers now see a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will be able to provide a so-called “soft landing,” that is, to combat high inflation, while managing to avoid recession.
“The consensus among corporate executives has shifted slightly in a more positive direction. The sagging economy is now expected to be milder than many expected six months ago,” Goldman Sachs Group chief David Solomon said Tuesday at an event hosted by Credit Suisse.
A positive tone also prevailed in a speech by Bank of America Corp. Brian Moynihan, who noted the high consumer activity and resilient profitability of mid-cap companies.
“Consumers have money. They have jobs, they’re spending money and taking out loans,” Moynihan said at a conference on financial services.
Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Michael Santomassimo also pointed to “very good consumer spending data.”
Such comments contrasted with statements by bank executives last year when they expressed serious concerns about the state of the U.S. economy, notes the FT.
Despite the growth of optimism, grounds for concern remain. In particular, the head of Goldman Sachs said that the future trajectory of inflation is still unclear, high rates of growth in consumer prices can be observed for quite some time, which will affect the economy as a whole.
“I think we’re going to see weaker, slower growth for a while,” Solomon said.
Earlier, the Club of Experts consolidated and analyzed economic indicators of Ukraine and the world, more details in the video at the link
A new video dedicated to the situation in the Ukrainian and world economy at the beginning of 2023 has been published on the YouTube channel of the “Club of Experts” analytical center. The official data concerning the main macroeconomic indicators was presented in the program as well as the forecasts of the leading world analytics for the years 2023-2024 were consolidated.
According to the analysts, the indicators of Ukrainian economy are stable on the whole. Thus to support it in the conditions of war in 2023 the increase of volumes of macrofinancial help from partners will be required. Thus, the founder of the Club of Experts, candidate of economic sciences Maxim Urakin referred to the IMF assessment, according to which Ukraine’s needs for external financing in the current year will be not less than 39.5 billion dollars and can reach 57 billion.
“This forecast is an expression of a high degree of uncertainty on the part of the world’s leading financial institutions with regard to the situation in the Ukrainian economy, and also demonstrates the increasing pressure on it from expenditures,” the expert stressed.
As for the global indicators, the same IMF forecasts that more than a third of the global economy in 2023 will arrive in recession. In turn, Bloomberg notes a record fall in global stock and bond markets in the last months of 2022. At the same time, investors are more optimistic about this year’s prospects.
“The end of the cycle of interest rate hikes, the recovery of the Chinese economy and the end of the war in Ukraine followed by the recovery of our economy could significantly improve the situation both in our country and in the world,” said Maxim Urakin.
For more details on the situation in Ukraine and the world economy, please watch the video on the “Club of Experts” channel by clicking here:
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Ukraine and Israel signed bilateral documents on cooperation in agriculture, economics, education, culture, as well as youth and sports. “A series of Ukrainian-Israeli documents were signed in the presence of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu,” the presidential press service reported on Monday.
Thus, Acting Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Olha Trofimtseva and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the State of Israel to Ukraine Joel Lyon signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the sphere of agriculture between the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the State of Israel.
In addition, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the State of Israel Hennadiy Nadolenko and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the State of Israel to Ukraine Joel Lyon signed an Agreement between the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine and the Ministry of Education of the State of Israel as regards facilitating the study of the Hebrew language in the educational institutions of Ukraine and the study of the Ukrainian language in the educational institutions of the State of Israel.
In addition, the ambassadors of the two states signed a Program of Cooperation in the spheres of education, culture, youth and sports between the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the Government of the State of Israel for 2019-2022.
State Secretary of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine Oleksiy Perevezentsev and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the State of Israel to Ukraine Joel Lyon signed a Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine and the Israeli Patent Office of the Ministry of Justice of the State of Israel.
AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION, ECONOMICS, EDUCATION, ISRAEL, SPORTS, UKRAINE
